Analisis Determinan Ekspor Karet Indonesia dengan Pendekatan Gravity Model

  69

Lampiran 1. Nilai Masing-Masing Variabel Penelitian Negara Tahun POPi POPj REER DIST PDBj EXPV PDBi D

  1 Amerika 2001 216.203.499 284.968.955 114 16.378 10.233.900.000.000 282.000.000 160.446.947.638

  219.026.365 287.625.193 114 16.378 10.590.200.000.000 387.000.000 195.660.611.034

  1 2003 221.839.235 290.107.933 106 16.378 11.089.300.000.000 520.000.000 234.772.458.818 1 2004 224.606.531 292.805.298 101 16.378 11.797.800.000.000 685.000.000 256.836.883.305 1 2005 227.303.175 295.516.599 100 16.378 12.564.300.000.000 804.000.000 285.868.610.017 1 2006 229.918.547 298.379.912

Serikat 2002

  1 2008 234.951.154 304.093.966 91 16.378 14.219.300.000.000 1.550.000.000 510.244.548.960

  1 2009 237.414.495 306.771.529 95 16.378 13.863.600.000.000 613.000.000 539.579.959.053

  1 2010 239.870.937 309.349.689 91 16.378 14.447.100.000.000 1.570.000.000 708.026.840.495

  1 Jepang 2001 216.203.499 127.149.000 112 5.747 4.159.859.918.094 83.300.000 160.446.947.638 2002 219.026.365 127.445.000 105 5.747 3.980.819.536.160 137.000.000 195.660.611.034

  1 2007 232.461.746 301.231.207 95 16.378 13.961.800.000.000 1.220.000.000 432.216.737.775

  91 5.747 4.356.761.451.087 525.000.000 364.570.525.997

  1 2007 232.461.746 127.770.750 83 5.747 4.356.329.296.669 659.000.000 432.216.737.775

  1 2008 234.951.154 127.704.040 90 5.747 4.849.208.099.924 974.000.000 510.244.548.960

  1 2009 237.414.495 127.557.958 102 5.747 5.035.141.567.659 444.000.000 539.579.959.053 1 2010 239.870.937 127.450.459 103 5.747 5.488.416.495.785 954.000.000 708.026.840.495

  1 China 2001 216.203.499 1.271.850.000 113 4.692 1.324.806.914.358 30.169.149 160.446.947.638 2002 219.026.365 1.280.400.000 111 4.692 1.453.827.554.714 20.700.000 195.660.611.034

  1 2003 221.839.235 1.288.400.000 103 4.692 1.640.958.732.775 82.000.000 234.772.458.818 1 2004 224.606.531 1.296.075.000 101 4.692 1.931.644.331.142 192.000.000 256.836.883.305 1 2005 227.303.175 1.303.720.000 100 4.692 2.256.902.590.825 263.000.000 285.868.610.017

  1 Universitas Sumatera Utara

  99 16.378 13.314.500.000.000 1.040.000.000 364.570.525.997

  1 2003 221.839.235 127.718.000 106 5.747 4.302.939.184.964 189.000.000 234.772.458.818 1 2004 224.606.531 127.761.000 107 5.747 4.655.803.055.651 220.000.000 256.836.883.305 1 2005 227.303.175 127.773.000 100 5.747 4.571.875.737.175 216.000.000 285.868.610.017 1 2006 229.918.547 127.756.000

  70 2006 229.918.547 1.311.020.000 102 4.692 2.712.950.886.698 546.000.000 364.570.525.997

  1 2007 232.461.746 1.317.885.000 106 4.692 3.494.055.944.791 610.000.000 432.216.737.775 1 2008 234.951.154 1.324.655.000 115 4.692 4.521.827.288.304 813.000.000 510.244.548.960 1 2009 237.414.495 1.331.380.000 119 4.692 4.991.256.406.735 657.000.000 539.579.959.053 1 2010 239.870.937 1.337.825.000 119 4.692 5.930.529.470.799 1.270.000.000 708.026.840.495

  1 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan

Negara Tahun POPi POPj REER DIST PDBj EXPV PDBi D

  1 Singapur a 2001 216.203.499 4.138.000 109 906 91.148.432.628 43.800.000 160.446.947.638 2002 219.026.365 4.176.000 107 906 90.582.818.234 45.400.000 195.660.611.034

  1 2003 221.839.235 4.114.800 103 906 93.362.870.573 65.300.000 234.772.458.818 1 2004 224.606.531 4.166.700 102 906 109.336.483.914 91.500.000 256.836.883.305 1 2005 227.303.175 4.265.800 100 906 123.506.892.268 130.000.000 285.868.610.017 1 2006 229.918.547 4.401.400 101 906 139.125.048.812 229.000.000 364.570.525.997 1 2007 232.461.746 4.588.600 102 906 168.434.001.846 299.000.000 432.216.737.775 1 2008 234.951.154 4.839.400 108 906 166.792.256.695 343.000.000 510.244.548.960 1 2009 237.414.495 4.987.600 108 906 175.934.878.516 154.000.000 539.579.959.053 1 2010 239.870.937 5.076.700 111 906 213.154.518.683 336.000.000 708.026.840.495

  1 Universitas Sumatera Utara

  71

Lampiran 2. Transformasi Logaritma Natural (Ln) pada Nilai Masing-Masing Variabel Penelitian Negara Tahun POPi POPj DIST PDBj EXPV PDBi Amerika

  2001 19,19173065 19,46789080 9,70371135 29,95672685 19,45741763 25,80122918

  2002 19,20470267 19,47716878 9,70371135 29,99095016 19,77393525 25,99964742 2003 19,21746351 19,48576359 9,70371135 30,03700180 20,06933937 26,18188262 2004 19,22986068 19,49501843 9,70371135 30,09893419 20,34492940 26,27170703 2005 19,24179526 19,50423557 9,70371135 30,16188058 20,50510983 26,37879814 2006 19,25323566 19,51387810 9,70371135 30,21987478 20,76248655 26,62198586 2007 19,26423624 19,52338866 9,70371135 30,26734614 20,92211670 26,79219301 2008 19,27488820 19,53284731 9,70371135 30,28562131 21,16152077 26,95815596 2009 19,28531810 19,54161382 9,70371135 30,26028782 20,23387549 27,01405682 2010 19,29561157 19,54998287 9,70371135 30,30151482 21,17434146 27,28574784

Serikat

  2001 19,19173065 18,66087019 8,65651991 29,05650252 18,23795911 25,80122918 2002 19,20470267 18,66319546 8,65651991 29,01250883 18,73549148 25,99964742 2003 19,21746351 18,66533527 8,65651991 29,09031944 19,05725757 26,18188262 2004 19,22986068 18,66567189 8,65651991 29,16913553 19,20913810 26,27170703 2005 19,24179526 18,66576581 8,65651991 29,15094468 19,19078897 26,37879814 2006 19,25323566 18,66563275 8,65651991 29,10275011 20,07890882 26,62198586 2007 19,26423624 18,66574820 8,65651991 29,10265091 20,30623409 26,79219301 2008 19,27488820 18,66522596 8,65651991 29,20983653 20,69692186 26,95815596 2009 19,28531810 18,66408139 8,65651991 29,24746276 19,91133512 27,01405682 2010 19,29561157 18,66323829 8,65651991 29,33366090 20,67617423 27,28574784

Jepang

  Universitas Sumatera Utara

  72

  2001 19,19173065 20,96373837 8,45356327 27,91228784 17,22233040 25,80122918 2002 19,20470267 20,97043837 8,45356327 28,00522089 16,84564426 25,99964742 2003 19,21746351 20,97666698 8,45356327 28,12630178 18,22222981 26,18188262 2004 19,22986068 20,98260630 8,45356327 28,28939274 19,07300593 26,27170703 2005 19,24179526 20,98848755 8,45356327 28,44501445 19,38766459 26,37879814 2006 19,25323566 20,99407130 8,45356327 28,62905805 20,11812953 26,62198586 2007 19,26423624 20,99929402 8,45356327 28,88208434 20,22896952 26,79219301 2008 19,27488820 21,00441789 8,45356327 29,13993730 20,51624167 26,95815596

China

Lampiran 2. Lanjutan Negara Tahun POPi POPj DIST PDBj EXPV PDBi

  2009 19,28531810 21,00948184 8,45356327 29,23870878 20,30319458 27,01405682 2010 19,29561157 21,01431100 8,45356327 29,41113461 20,96228274 27,28574784

  2001 19,19173065 15,23572314 6,80863194 25,23575514 17,59514438 25,80122918 2002 19,20470267 15,24486441 6,80863194 25,22953039 17,63102266 25,99964742 2003 19,21746351 15,23010079 6,80863194 25,25975957 17,99450259 26,18188262 2004 19,22986068 15,24263491 6,80863194 25,41769597 18,33184953 26,27170703 2005 19,24179526 15,26614029 6,80863194 25,53956280 18,68304501 26,37879814 2006 19,25323566 15,29743323 6,80863194 25,65863900 19,24923256 26,62198586 2007 19,26423624 15,33908552 6,80863194 25,84980983 19,51595413 26,79219301 2008 19,27488820 15,39230130 6,80863194 25,84001490 19,65324101 26,95815596

Singapura

  Universitas Sumatera Utara

  73 2009 19,28531810 15,42246539 6,80863194 25,89337976 18,85246316 27,01405682 2010 19,29561157 15,44017200 6,80863194 26,08528318 19,63262172 27,28574784

  Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 3. Hasil Estimasi Variabel Penelitian dengan Eviews

  Dependent Variable: EXPV? Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 07/17/13 Time: 18:27 Sample: 2001 2010 Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 4 Total pool (balanced) observations: 40 Wallace and Hussain estimator of component variances White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected) WARNING: estimated coefficient covariance matrix is of reduced rank Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -19.65558 4.195926 -4.684445 0.0000 REER? -0.046675 0.008584 -5.437497 0.0000

  PDBI? 0.215234 0.299795 0.717937 0.4778 PDBJ? 2.521586 0.387855 6.501359 0.0000

  DIST? -2.707595 1.113744 -2.431076 0.0207 D? -0.008359 0.072867 -0.114715 0.9094

  POPJ? -0.563986 0.558383 -1.010035 0.3198 Random Effects

  (Cross) _USA--C 0.322390

  _JPN--C -1.309710 _CHN--C 0.903899 _SGP--C 0.083420

  Effects Specification S.D. Rho

  Cross-section random 1.449513 0.9521 Idiosyncratic random 0.325100 0.0479

  Weighted Statistics R-squared 0.896819 Mean dependent var 1.380487 Adjusted R-squared 0.878059 S.D. dependent var 0.927978 S.E. of regression 0.324051 Sum squared resid 3.465290 F-statistic 47.80438 Durbin-Watson stat 1.525768 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

  Unweighted Statistics R-squared 0.388313 Mean dependent var 19.51310 Sum squared resid 30.03093 Durbin-Watson stat 0.176059

Lampiran 4. Uji Regresi Pada Masing-Masing Variabel Independen

  Dependent Variable: REER? Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 07/28/13 Time: 10:15 Sample: 2001 2010 Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 4 Total pool (balanced) observations: 40 Wallace and Hussain estimator of component variances White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected) WARNING: estimated coefficient covariance matrix is of reduced rank Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C 165.9882 81.97599 2.024839 0.0508 PDBJ? 23.53875 3.063180 7.684414 0.0000

  DIST? -40.65759 8.630916 -4.710693 0.0000 D? -6.385239 3.234284 -1.974236 0.0565

  POPJ? 0.686662 2.873888 0.238932 0.8126 PDBI? -14.91549 3.827337 -3.897093 0.0004

  Random Effects (Cross) _USA--C 7.325251

  _JPN--C -11.61702 _CHN--C 0.157924 _SGP--C 4.133848

  Effects Specification S.D. Rho

  Cross-section random 14.36117 0.8817 Idiosyncratic random 5.260501 0.1183

  Weighted Statistics R-squared 0.529232 Mean dependent var 11.91562 Adjusted R-squared 0.460001 S.D. dependent var 7.158664 S.E. of regression 5.260515 Sum squared resid 940.8825 F-statistic 7.644484 Durbin-Watson stat 0.854882 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000067

  Unweighted Statistics R-squared -0.202316 Mean dependent var 103.5556 Sum squared resid 3025.768 Durbin-Watson stat 0.265831

Lampiran 4. Lanjutan

  Dependent Variable: PDBI? Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 07/28/13 Time: 10:15 Sample: 2001 2010 Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 4 Total pool (balanced) observations: 40 Wallace and Hussain estimator of component variances White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected) WARNING: estimated coefficient covariance matrix is of reduced rank Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C 10.48238 1.347438 7.779490 0.0000 PDBJ? 1.244566 0.141576 8.790798 0.0000

  DIST? -2.142217 0.275453 -7.777065 0.0000 D? 0.108548 0.053991 2.010480 0.0524

  POPJ? 0.061025 0.236298 0.258255 0.7978 REER? -0.024124 0.003684 -6.547490 0.0000

  Random Effects (Cross) _USA--C 0.438590

  _JPN--C -0.509928 _CHN--C -0.199074 _SGP--C 0.270412

  Effects Specification S.D. Rho

  Cross-section random 0.667675 0.9095 Idiosyncratic random 0.210659 0.0905

  Weighted Statistics R-squared 0.820735 Mean dependent var 2.633961 Adjusted R-squared 0.794373 S.D. dependent var 0.462893 S.E. of regression 0.209904 Sum squared resid 1.498031 F-statistic 31.13271 Durbin-Watson stat 0.372011 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

  Unweighted Statistics R-squared 0.137716 Mean dependent var 26.53054 Sum squared resid 7.205698 Durbin-Watson stat 0.077339

Lampiran 4. Lanjutan

  Dependent Variable: POPJ? Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 07/28/13 Time: 10:16 Sample: 2001 2010 Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 4 Total pool (balanced) observations: 40 Wansbeek and Kapteyn estimator of component variances White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected) WARNING: estimated coefficient covariance matrix is of reduced rank Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C 3.810747 12.31751 0.309376 0.7589 PDBJ? 0.004589 0.018482 0.248294 0.8054

  DIST? 1.520379 1.467274 1.036193 0.3074 D? -0.005454 0.003292 -1.656841 0.1068

  PDBI? 0.067569 0.013817 4.890288 0.0000 REER? 0.001066 0.000480 2.222342 0.0330

  Random Effects (Cross) _USA--C -1.088308

  _JPN--C -0.335209 _CHN--C 2.291991 _SGP--C -0.868473

  Effects Specification S.D. Rho

  Cross-section random 2.396535 0.9998 Idiosyncratic random 0.032170 0.0002

  Weighted Statistics R-squared 0.526409 Mean dependent var 0.079034 Adjusted R-squared 0.456763 S.D. dependent var 0.043177 S.E. of regression 0.031824 Sum squared resid 0.034433 F-statistic 7.558384 Durbin-Watson stat 0.197559 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000073

  Unweighted Statistics R-squared 0.579212 Mean dependent var 18.61877 Sum squared resid 73.07823 Durbin-Watson stat

  9.31E-05

Lampiran 4. Lanjutan

  Dependent Variable: D? Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 07/28/13 Time: 10:17 Sample: 2001 2010 Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 4 Total pool (balanced) observations: 40 Wallace and Hussain estimator of component variances White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected) Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -5.856758 5.037446 -1.162644 0.2531 PDBJ? -0.010715 0.054051 -0.198245 0.8440

  DIST? -0.036914 0.107400 -0.343711 0.7332 PDBI? 0.304651 0.213486 1.427031 0.1627

  REER? -0.011187 0.008014 -1.395989 0.1718 POPJ? 0.024010 0.014620 1.642250 0.1098

  Random Effects (Cross) _USA--C 0.000000

  _JPN--C 0.000000 _CHN--C 0.000000 _SGP--C 0.000000

  Effects Specification S.D. Rho

  Cross-section random 0.000000 0.0000 Idiosyncratic random 0.263252 1.0000

  Weighted Statistics R-squared 0.351176 Mean dependent var 0.900000 Adjusted R-squared 0.255760 S.D. dependent var 0.303822 S.E. of regression 0.262105 Sum squared resid 2.335768 F-statistic 3.680494 Durbin-Watson stat 1.605247 Prob(F-statistic) 0.009068

  Unweighted Statistics R-squared 0.351176 Mean dependent var 0.900000 Sum squared resid 2.335768 Durbin-Watson stat 1.605247

Lampiran 4. Lanjutan

  Dependent Variable: DIST? Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 07/28/13 Time: 10:18 Sample: 2001 2010 Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 4 Total pool (balanced) observations: 40 Wallace and Hussain estimator of component variances White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected) WARNING: estimated coefficient covariance matrix is of reduced rank Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C 2.316947 0.345488 6.706307 0.0000 PDBJ? 0.184830 0.036690 5.037619 0.0000

  PDBI? -0.128405 0.028935 -4.437645 0.0001 REER? -0.003890 0.001368 -2.843427 0.0075

  POPJ? 0.250531 0.026973 9.288369 0.0000 D? -0.012972 0.022052 -0.588229 0.5603

  Random Effects (Cross) _USA--C 0.730423

  _JPN--C 0.081872 _CHN--C -0.564651 _SGP--C -0.247645

  Effects Specification S.D. Rho

  Cross-section random 0.331525 0.9407 Idiosyncratic random 0.083226 0.0593

  Weighted Statistics R-squared 0.687132 Mean dependent var 0.665196 Adjusted R-squared 0.641122 S.D. dependent var 0.083103 S.E. of regression 0.049784 Sum squared resid 0.084267 F-statistic 14.93441 Durbin-Watson stat 0.160220 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

  Unweighted Statistics R-squared 0.782683 Mean dependent var 8.405607 Sum squared resid 9.346072 Durbin-Watson stat 0.001445

Lampiran 4. Lanjutan

  Dependent Variable: PDBJ? Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 07/28/13 Time: 10:18 Sample: 2001 2010 Included observations: 10 Cross-sections included: 4 Total pool (balanced) observations: 40 Wallace and Hussain estimator of component variances White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected) WARNING: estimated coefficient covariance matrix is of reduced rank Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -3.498462 1.872305 -1.868532 0.0703 PDBI? 0.593016 0.085552 6.931611 0.0000

  REER? 0.018152 0.003147 5.768472 0.0000 POPJ? 0.065830 0.234893 0.280257 0.7810

  D? 0.066838 0.077686 0.860357 0.3956 DIST? 1.544024 0.403908 3.822717 0.0005

  Random Effects (Cross) _USA--C -0.229914

  _JPN--C 0.444949 _CHN--C -0.095199 _SGP--C -0.119836

  Effects Specification S.D. Rho

  Cross-section random 0.525771 0.9301 Idiosyncratic random 0.144084 0.0699

  Weighted Statistics R-squared 0.845209 Mean dependent var 2.450108 Adjusted R-squared 0.822446 S.D. dependent var 0.342240 S.E. of regression 0.144210 Sum squared resid 0.707086 F-statistic 37.13022 Durbin-Watson stat 0.465036 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

  Unweighted Statistics R-squared 0.970829 Mean dependent var 28.37861 Sum squared resid 3.470321 Durbin-Watson stat 0.094752

Lampiran 5. Uji Haussman pada Variabel Penelitian

  Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Pool: POOL03 Test cross-section random effects Chi-Sq.

  Test Summary Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob. Cross-section random 0.000000 5 1.0000 * Cross-section test variance is invalid. Hausman statistic set to zero.

• WARNING: robust standard errors may not be consistent with assumptions of Hausman test variance calculation.

Lampiran 6 . Uji Wald pada Variabel Penelitian

  Wald Test: Test Statistic Value df Probability F-statistic 21.94402 (1, 33) 0.0000 Chi-square 21.94402 1 0.0000

  

Lampiran 7. Hasil Estimasi Persamaan Ekspor Karet Indonesia (Output

Eviews )

  Estimation Command: ===================== LS(CX=R,RANCALC=WH,COV=CXWHITE) EXPV? REER? PDBI? PDBJ? DIST? D? POPJ? Estimation Equations: ===================== EXPV_USA = C(8) + C(1) + C(2)*REER_USA + C(3)*PDBI_USA + C(4)*PDBJ_USA + C(5)*DIST_USA + C(6)*D_USA + C(7)*POPJ_USA EXPV_JPN = C(9) + C(1) + C(2)*REER_JPN + C(3)*PDBI_JPN + C(4)*PDBJ_JPN + C(5)*DIST_JPN + C(6)*D_JPN + C(7)*POPJ_JPN EXPV_CHN = C(10) + C(1) + C(2)*REER_CHN + C(3)*PDBI_CHN + C(4)*PDBJ_CHN + C(5)*DIST_CHN + C(6)*D_CHN + C(7)*POPJ_CHN EXPV_SGP = C(11) + C(1) + C(2)*REER_SGP + C(3)*PDBI_SGP + C(4)*PDBJ_SGP + C(5)*DIST_SGP + C(6)*D_SGP + C(7)*POPJ_SGP Substituted Coefficients: ===================== EXPV_USA = 0.322389829403 - 19.6555810066 - 0.0466751508385*REER_USA + 0.21523364617*PDBI_USA + 2.52158617853*PDBJ_USA - 2.70759497836*DIST_USA - 0.008358938997*D_USA - 0.563985856347*POPJ_USA EXPV_JPN = -1.30970967794 - 19.6555810066 - 0.0466751508385*REER_JPN + 0.21523364617*PDBI_JPN + 2.52158617853*PDBJ_JPN - 2.70759497836*DIST_JPN - 0.008358938997*D_JPN - 0.563985856347*POPJ_JPN EXPV_CHN = 0.903899483882 - 19.6555810066 - 0.0466751508385*REER_CHN + 0.21523364617*PDBI_CHN + 2.52158617853*PDBJ_CHN - 2.70759497836*DIST_CHN - 0.008358938997*D_CHN - 0.563985856347*POPJ_CHN EXPV_SGP = 0.0834203646586 - 19.6555810066 - 0.0466751508385*REER_SGP + 0.21523364617*PDBI_SGP + 2.52158617853*PDBJ_SGP - 2.70759497836*DIST_SGP - 0.008358938997*D_SGP - 0.563985856347*POPJ_SGP