Analisis Forecasting Penawaran dan Permintaan Ekspor Biji Kakao (Theobroma cacao L.) Sumatera Utara ke Malaysia Tahun 2020
LAMPIRAN
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1. Penawaran Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
Rata-Rata
X
(Ton)
28427
28053
34015
25798
33622
34418
39523
46594
47821
51516
51402
32609
29505
30023
9796
523122
34874.8
P
(Ton)
45718
49566
49690
48190
48084
53734
58949
64782
60253
67341
63425
54515
36188
31789
33386
765610
51040.7
PD
(Rp/Kg)
8042
8042
12392
12882
11538
11041
11402
14562
10660
25892
23756
23663
21314
23196
33379
251761
16784.1
PI
(US$/Ton)
990
1580
1873
1534
1571
1557
1867
2516
2599
3246
3105
2396
2359
3009
3048
33250
2216.7
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2. Permintaan Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara ke Malaysia
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
Rata-Rata
XM
(Ton)
4455
3906
11561
14576
16725
18809
19173
21498
28520
24505
25612
18233
17585
22295
8521
255974
17064.9
C
(Ton)
139443
138616
117586
167595
229649
258647
270261
310001
323653
279228
302366
299271
299525
285608
244423
3665872
244391.5
PI
(US$/Ton)
990
1580
1873
1534
1571
1557
1867
2516
2599
3246
3105
2396
2359
3009
3048
33250
2216.7
GDP
(US$)
4005
3879
4133
4431
4925
5564
6195
7241
8487
7312
9069
10428
10835
10974
11307
108785
7252.3
ER
(Rp/US$)
15121
16969
13992
12374
12446
12657
10892
10516
10554
10751
9090
8587
8994
9557
10358
172858
11523.9
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 3. Proyeksi Penawaran Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara
Hingga Tahun 2020
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
X1
45718
49566
49690
48190
48084
53734
58949
64782
60253
67341
63425
54515
36188
31789
33386
46451
45877
45303
44729
44155
43582
X2
8042
8042
12392
12882
11538
11041
11402
14562
10660
25892
23756
23663
21314
23196
33379
28831
30337
31842
33348
34854
36360
X3
990
1580
1873
1534
1571
1557
1867
2516
2599
3246
3105
2396
2359
3009
3048
3290
3424
3558
3693
3827
3961
Y
28427
28053
34015
25798
33622
34418
39523
46594
47821
51516
51402
32609
29505
30023
9796
33829
33698
33568
33448
33317
33186
Y = -8406.218 + 0.627X1 – 0.921X2 + 12.056X3
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4. Proyeksi Permintaan Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara Ke
Malaysia Hingga Tahun 2020
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
X1
139443
138616
117586
167595
229649
258647
270261
310001
323653
279228
302366
299271
299525
285608
244423
340561
352582
364609
376624
388645
400666
X2
990
1580
1873
1534
1571
1557
1867
2516
2599
3246
3105
2396
2359
3009
3048
3290
3424
3558
3693
3827
3961
X3
4005
3879
4133
4431
4925
5564
6195
7241
8487
7312
9069
10428
10835
10974
11307
12092
12697
13302
13907
14512
15117
X4
15121
16969
13992
12374
12446
12657
10892
10516
10554
10751
9090
8587
8994
9557
10358
7748
7276
6804
6332
5860
5387
Y
4455
3906
11561
14576
16725
18809
19173
21498
28520
24505
25612
18233
17585
22295
8521
23697
24539
25381
26227
27069
27912
Y = 26927.877 + 0.078X1 + 4.476X2 – 2.540X3 – 1.782X4
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 5. Perhitungan Proyeksi Produksi Kakao Sumatera Utara
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
b=
=
=
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
Rata-Rata
� ∑ �� −∑ � ∑ �
∑ � 2 −∑(�)2
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
0
�
15(−160655 ) – 0 (765610 )
15(280)− 0
− 2409825
4200
= - 573.77
Y1 (Ton)
45718
49566
49690
48190
48084
53734
58949
64782
60253
67341
63425
54515
36188
31789
33386
765610
51040.7
X2
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
280
18.7
XY
-320026
-297396
-248450
-192760
-144252
-107468
-58949
0
60253
134682
190275
218060
180940
190734
233702
-160655
-10710.3
a=
=
=
∑(�)−� ∑(�)
�
765610 – (−573.77)(0)
15
765610
15
= 51040.67
Persamaan trend linier :
Y1 = a + bX
Y1 = 51040.67 – 573.77X
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6. Proyeksi Produksi Kakao Sumatera Utara Hingga Tahun 2020
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Produksi Kakao Sumatera Utara
45718
49566
49690
48190
48084
53734
58949
64782
60253
67341
63425
54515
36188
31789
33386
46451
45877
45303
44729
44155
43582
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 7. Perhitungan Proyeksi Harga Domestik Biji Kakao Sumatera
Utara
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
b=
=
=
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
Rata-Rata
� ∑ �� −∑ � ∑ �
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
0
� ∑ � 2 −∑(�)2
15(421631 ) – 0 (251761 )
15(280)− 0
6324465
4200
= 1505.83
Y2 (Ton)
8042
8042
12392
12882
11538
11041
11402
14562
10660
25892
23756
23663
21314
23196
33379
251761
16784.1
X2
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
280
18.7
XY
-56294
-48252
-61960
-51528
-34614
-22082
-11402
0
10660
51784
71268
94652
106570
139176
233653
421631
28108.7
a=
=
=
∑(�)−� ∑(�)
�
251761 – (1505 .83)(0)
15
251761
15
= 16784.1
Persamaan trend linier:
Y2 = a + bX
Y2 = 16784.1 + 1505.83X
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 8. Proyeksi Harga Domestik Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara Hingga
Tahun 2020
No.
Tahun
X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Harga Domestik Biji Kakao Sumatera
Utara
8042
8042
12392
12882
11538
11041
11402
14562
10660
25892
23756
23663
21314
23196
33379
28831
30337
31842
33348
34854
36360
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 9. Perhitungan Proyeksi Harga Internasional Biji Kakao
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
b=
=
=
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
Rata-Rata
� ∑ �� −∑ � ∑ �
∑ � 2 −∑(�)2
�
15(37570 ) – 0 (33250 )
15(280)− 0
563550
4200
= 134.18
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
0
Y3 (Ton)
990
1580
1873
1534
1571
1557
1867
2516
2599
3246
3105
2396
2359
3009
3048
33250
2216.7
XY
-6930
-9480
-9365
-6136
-4713
-3114
-1867
0
2599
6492
9315
9584
11795
18054
21336
37570
2504.7
a=
=
=
X2
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
280
18.7
∑(�)−� ∑(�)
�
33250 – (134.18)(0)
15
33250
15
= 2216.67
Persamaan trend linier:
Y3 = a + bX
Y3 = 2216.67 + 134.18X
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 10. Proyeksi Harga Internasional Biji Kakao Hingga Tahun 2020
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Harga Internasional Biji Kakao
990
1580
1873
1534
1571
1557
1867
2516
2599
3246
3105
2396
2359
3009
3048
3290
3424
3558
3693
3827
3961
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 11. Perhitungan Proyeksi Konsumsi Biji Kakao Malaysia
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
b=
=
=
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
Rata-Rata
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
0
� ∑ �� −∑ � ∑ �
∑ �2
�
15(3365916 ) – 0 (3665872 )
−∑(�)2
15(280) − 0
50488740
4200
= 12021.13
Y4 (Ton)
139443
138616
117586
167595
229649
258647
270261
310001
323653
279228
302366
299271
299525
285608
244423
3665872
244391.5
X2
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
280
18.7
XY
-6930
-9480
-9365
-6136
-4713
-3114
-1867
0
2599
6492
9315
9584
11795
18054
21336
37570
2504.7
a=
=
=
∑(�) −� ∑(�)
�
3665872 – 12021 .13(0)
15
3665872
15
= 244391.5
Persamaan trend linier :
Y4 = a + bX
Y4 = 244391.5 + 12021.13X
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 12. Proyeksi Konsumsi Biji Kakao Malaysia Hingga Tahun 2020
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Konsumsi Biji Kakao Malaysia
139443
138616
117586
167595
229649
258647
270261
310001
323653
279228
302366
299271
299525
285608
244423
340561
352582
364609
376624
388645
400666
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 13. Perhitungan Proyeksi GDP Per Kapita Malaysia
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
b=
=
=
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
Rata-Rata
� ∑ �� −∑ � ∑ �
∑ � 2 −∑(�)2
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
0
�
15(169402 ) – 0 (108785 )
15(280)− 0
2541030
4200
= 605.01
Y5 (Ton)
4005
3879
4133
4431
4925
5564
6195
7241
8487
7312
9069
10428
10835
10974
11307
108785
7252.3
XY
-28035
-23274
-20665
-17724
-14775
-11128
-6195
0
8487
14624
27207
41712
54175
65844
79149
169402
11293.5
a=
=
=
X2
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
280
18.7
∑(�)−� ∑(�)
�
108785 – (605.01)(0)
15
108785
15
= 7252.3
Persamaan trend linier:
Y5 = a + bX
Y5 = 7252.3 + 605.01X
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 14. Proyeksi GDP Per Kapita Malaysia Hingga Tahun 2020
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
GDP Per Kapita Malaysia
4005
3879
4133
4431
4925
5564
6195
7241
8487
7312
9069
10428
10835
10974
11307
12092
12697
13302
13907
14512
15117
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 15. Perhitungan Proyeksi Nilai Tukar Riil Rupiah Terhadap
Dollar
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
b=
=
=
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
Rata-Rata
� ∑ �� −∑ � ∑ �
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
0
� ∑ � 2 −∑(�)2
15(−132169 ) – 0 (172858 )
15(280)− 0
−1982535
4200
= - 472.03
Y6 (Ton)
15121
16969
13992
12374
12446
12657
10892
10516
10554
10751
9090
8587
8994
9557
10358
172858
11523.9
X2
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
280
18.7
XY
-105847
-101814
-69960
-49496
-37338
-25314
-10892
0
10554
21502
27270
34348
44970
57342
72506
-132169
-8811.3
a=
=
=
∑(�)−� ∑(�)
�
172858 – (−472.03)(0)
15
172858
15
= 11523.87
Persamaan trend linier:
Y5 = a + bX
Y5 = 11523.87 – 472.03X
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 16. Proyeksi Nilai Tukar Riil Rupiah Terhadap Dollar Hingga
Tahun 2020
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Nilai Tukar Riil Rupiah Terhadap Dollar
15121
16969
13992
12374
12446
12657
10892
10516
10554
10751
9090
8587
8994
9557
10358
7748
7276
6804
6332
5860
5387
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 17. Hasil Estimasi SPSS Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi
Penawaran Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara
Descriptive Statistics
N
X
P
PD
PI
Valid N (listwise)
Minimum
15
15
15
15
15
Maximum
9796.00
31789.00
8042.00
990.00
Sum
51516.00
67341.00
33379.00
3246.00
Mean
523122.00
765610.00
251761.00
33250.00
34874.8000
51040.6667
16784.0667
2216.6667
Std. Deviation
11135.84613
11105.80354
7723.72645
703.27181
Descriptive Statistics
Mean
X
P
PD
PI
Std. Deviation
34874.8000
51040.6667
16784.0667
2216.6667
N
11135.84613
11105.80354
7723.72645
703.27181
15
15
15
15
Correlations
X
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (1-tailed)
N
P
PD
PI
X
1.000
.852
-.155
.298
P
.852
1.000
-.231
.103
PD
-.155
-.231
1.000
.826
PI
.298
.103
.826
1.000
X
.
.000
.291
.141
P
.000
.
.203
.358
PD
.291
.203
.
.000
PI
.141
.358
.000
.
X
15
15
15
15
P
15
15
15
15
PD
15
15
15
15
PI
15
15
15
15
Variables Entered/Removed
Model
1
Variables
Entered
Variables
Removed
a
PI, P, PD
Method
. Enter
a. All requested variables entered.
b
Model Summary
Model
1
R
.927
R Square
a
.859
Adjusted R
Square
.820
Std. Error of the
Estimate
4725.40683
Durbin-Watson
1.872
a. Predictors: (Constant), PI, P, PD
b. Dependent Variable: X
Universitas Sumatera Utara
b
ANOVA
Model
1
Sum of Squares
df
Mean Square
Regression
1.490E9
3
4.968E8
Residual
2.456E8
11
2.233E7
Total
1.736E9
14
F
Sig.
22.250
.000
a
a. Predictors: (Constant), PI, P, PD
b. Dependent Variable: X
Coefficients
a
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Std. Error
-8406.218
7293.951
.627
.139
-.921
12.056
P
PD
PI
Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
t
Sig.
-1.152
.274
.626
4.529
.001
.352
-.639
-2.619
.024
3.779
.761
3.191
.009
a. Dependent Variable: X
Coefficients
a
Collinearity Statistics
Model
1
Tolerance
VIF
P
.674
1.484
PD
.216
4.629
PI
.226
4.427
a. Dependent Variable: X
Universitas Sumatera Utara
One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
Unstandardized
Residual
N
Normal Parameters
a,,b
Most Extreme Differences
Mean
Std. Deviation
Absolute
Positive
Negative
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
15
.0000000
4.18862547E3
.135
.076
-.135
.523
.947
a. Test distribution is Normal.
b. Calculated from data.
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 18. Hasil Estimasi SPSS Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi
Permintaan Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara Ke Malaysia
Descriptive Statistics
N
Minimum
XM
C
PI
GDP
ER
Valid N (listwise)
15
15
15
15
15
15
Maximum
3906.00
117586.00
990.00
3879.00
8587.00
Sum
28520.00
323653.00
3246.00
11307.00
16969.00
Mean
255974.00
3665872.00
33250.00
108785.00
172858.00
Std. Deviation
17064.9333
244391.4667
2216.6667
7252.3333
11523.8667
Descriptive Statistics
Mean
XM
C
PI
GDP
ER
Std. Deviation
17064.9333
244391.4667
2216.6667
7252.3333
11523.8667
N
7355.86307
69786.23092
703.27181
2765.08162
2400.40946
15
15
15
15
15
Correlations
XM
Pearson Correlation
XM
GDP
ER
.828
.608
.441
-.726
C
.828
1.000
.685
.749
-.869
PI
.608
.685
1.000
.796
-.739
GDP
.441
.749
.796
1.000
-.857
-.726
-.869
-.739
-.857
1.000
XM
N
PI
1.000
ER
Sig. (1-tailed)
C
.
.000
.008
.050
.001
C
.000
.
.002
.001
.000
PI
.008
.002
.
.000
.001
GDP
.050
.001
.000
.
.000
ER
.001
.000
.001
.000
.
XM
15
15
15
15
15
C
15
15
15
15
15
PI
15
15
15
15
15
GDP
15
15
15
15
15
ER
15
15
15
15
15
Variables Entered/Removed
Model
1
Variables
Entered
Variables
Removed
a
ER, PI, C, GDP
Method
. Enter
a. All requested variables entered.
Universitas Sumatera Utara
7355.86307
69786.23092
703.27181
2765.08162
2400.40946
b
Model Summary
Model
R
1
Adjusted R
Square
R Square
.937
a
.878
Std. Error of the
Estimate
.829
Durbin-Watson
3043.81281
2.629
a. Predictors: (Constant), ER, PI, C, GDP
b. Dependent Variable: XM
b
ANOVA
Model
1
Sum of Squares
df
Mean Square
Regression
6.649E8
4
1.662E8
Residual
9.265E7
10
9264796.431
Total
7.575E8
14
F
Sig.
17.941
.000
a
a. Predictors: (Constant), ER, PI, C, GDP
b. Dependent Variable: XM
Coefficients
a
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Std. Error
26927.877
16961.544
.078
.024
C
PI
Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
t
.744
Sig.
1.588
.143
3.296
.008
4.476
1.961
.428
2.283
.046
GDP
-2.540
.646
-.955
-3.930
.003
ER
-1.782
.883
-.581
-2.019
.071
a. Dependent Variable: XM
Coefficients
a
Collinearity Statistics
Model
1
Tolerance
VIF
C
.240
4.167
PI
.348
2.874
GDP
.207
4.825
ER
.147
6.781
a. Dependent Variable: XM
Universitas Sumatera Utara
One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
Unstandardized
Residual
N
Normal Parameters
a,,b
Most Extreme Differences
Mean
Std. Deviation
Absolute
Positive
Negative
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
15
.0000000
2.57249135E3
.131
.120
-.131
.507
.959
a. Test distribution is Normal.
b. Calculated from data.
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1. Penawaran Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
Rata-Rata
X
(Ton)
28427
28053
34015
25798
33622
34418
39523
46594
47821
51516
51402
32609
29505
30023
9796
523122
34874.8
P
(Ton)
45718
49566
49690
48190
48084
53734
58949
64782
60253
67341
63425
54515
36188
31789
33386
765610
51040.7
PD
(Rp/Kg)
8042
8042
12392
12882
11538
11041
11402
14562
10660
25892
23756
23663
21314
23196
33379
251761
16784.1
PI
(US$/Ton)
990
1580
1873
1534
1571
1557
1867
2516
2599
3246
3105
2396
2359
3009
3048
33250
2216.7
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2. Permintaan Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara ke Malaysia
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
Rata-Rata
XM
(Ton)
4455
3906
11561
14576
16725
18809
19173
21498
28520
24505
25612
18233
17585
22295
8521
255974
17064.9
C
(Ton)
139443
138616
117586
167595
229649
258647
270261
310001
323653
279228
302366
299271
299525
285608
244423
3665872
244391.5
PI
(US$/Ton)
990
1580
1873
1534
1571
1557
1867
2516
2599
3246
3105
2396
2359
3009
3048
33250
2216.7
GDP
(US$)
4005
3879
4133
4431
4925
5564
6195
7241
8487
7312
9069
10428
10835
10974
11307
108785
7252.3
ER
(Rp/US$)
15121
16969
13992
12374
12446
12657
10892
10516
10554
10751
9090
8587
8994
9557
10358
172858
11523.9
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 3. Proyeksi Penawaran Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara
Hingga Tahun 2020
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
X1
45718
49566
49690
48190
48084
53734
58949
64782
60253
67341
63425
54515
36188
31789
33386
46451
45877
45303
44729
44155
43582
X2
8042
8042
12392
12882
11538
11041
11402
14562
10660
25892
23756
23663
21314
23196
33379
28831
30337
31842
33348
34854
36360
X3
990
1580
1873
1534
1571
1557
1867
2516
2599
3246
3105
2396
2359
3009
3048
3290
3424
3558
3693
3827
3961
Y
28427
28053
34015
25798
33622
34418
39523
46594
47821
51516
51402
32609
29505
30023
9796
33829
33698
33568
33448
33317
33186
Y = -8406.218 + 0.627X1 – 0.921X2 + 12.056X3
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4. Proyeksi Permintaan Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara Ke
Malaysia Hingga Tahun 2020
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
X1
139443
138616
117586
167595
229649
258647
270261
310001
323653
279228
302366
299271
299525
285608
244423
340561
352582
364609
376624
388645
400666
X2
990
1580
1873
1534
1571
1557
1867
2516
2599
3246
3105
2396
2359
3009
3048
3290
3424
3558
3693
3827
3961
X3
4005
3879
4133
4431
4925
5564
6195
7241
8487
7312
9069
10428
10835
10974
11307
12092
12697
13302
13907
14512
15117
X4
15121
16969
13992
12374
12446
12657
10892
10516
10554
10751
9090
8587
8994
9557
10358
7748
7276
6804
6332
5860
5387
Y
4455
3906
11561
14576
16725
18809
19173
21498
28520
24505
25612
18233
17585
22295
8521
23697
24539
25381
26227
27069
27912
Y = 26927.877 + 0.078X1 + 4.476X2 – 2.540X3 – 1.782X4
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 5. Perhitungan Proyeksi Produksi Kakao Sumatera Utara
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
b=
=
=
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
Rata-Rata
� ∑ �� −∑ � ∑ �
∑ � 2 −∑(�)2
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
0
�
15(−160655 ) – 0 (765610 )
15(280)− 0
− 2409825
4200
= - 573.77
Y1 (Ton)
45718
49566
49690
48190
48084
53734
58949
64782
60253
67341
63425
54515
36188
31789
33386
765610
51040.7
X2
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
280
18.7
XY
-320026
-297396
-248450
-192760
-144252
-107468
-58949
0
60253
134682
190275
218060
180940
190734
233702
-160655
-10710.3
a=
=
=
∑(�)−� ∑(�)
�
765610 – (−573.77)(0)
15
765610
15
= 51040.67
Persamaan trend linier :
Y1 = a + bX
Y1 = 51040.67 – 573.77X
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6. Proyeksi Produksi Kakao Sumatera Utara Hingga Tahun 2020
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Produksi Kakao Sumatera Utara
45718
49566
49690
48190
48084
53734
58949
64782
60253
67341
63425
54515
36188
31789
33386
46451
45877
45303
44729
44155
43582
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 7. Perhitungan Proyeksi Harga Domestik Biji Kakao Sumatera
Utara
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
b=
=
=
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
Rata-Rata
� ∑ �� −∑ � ∑ �
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
0
� ∑ � 2 −∑(�)2
15(421631 ) – 0 (251761 )
15(280)− 0
6324465
4200
= 1505.83
Y2 (Ton)
8042
8042
12392
12882
11538
11041
11402
14562
10660
25892
23756
23663
21314
23196
33379
251761
16784.1
X2
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
280
18.7
XY
-56294
-48252
-61960
-51528
-34614
-22082
-11402
0
10660
51784
71268
94652
106570
139176
233653
421631
28108.7
a=
=
=
∑(�)−� ∑(�)
�
251761 – (1505 .83)(0)
15
251761
15
= 16784.1
Persamaan trend linier:
Y2 = a + bX
Y2 = 16784.1 + 1505.83X
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 8. Proyeksi Harga Domestik Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara Hingga
Tahun 2020
No.
Tahun
X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Harga Domestik Biji Kakao Sumatera
Utara
8042
8042
12392
12882
11538
11041
11402
14562
10660
25892
23756
23663
21314
23196
33379
28831
30337
31842
33348
34854
36360
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 9. Perhitungan Proyeksi Harga Internasional Biji Kakao
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
b=
=
=
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
Rata-Rata
� ∑ �� −∑ � ∑ �
∑ � 2 −∑(�)2
�
15(37570 ) – 0 (33250 )
15(280)− 0
563550
4200
= 134.18
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
0
Y3 (Ton)
990
1580
1873
1534
1571
1557
1867
2516
2599
3246
3105
2396
2359
3009
3048
33250
2216.7
XY
-6930
-9480
-9365
-6136
-4713
-3114
-1867
0
2599
6492
9315
9584
11795
18054
21336
37570
2504.7
a=
=
=
X2
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
280
18.7
∑(�)−� ∑(�)
�
33250 – (134.18)(0)
15
33250
15
= 2216.67
Persamaan trend linier:
Y3 = a + bX
Y3 = 2216.67 + 134.18X
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 10. Proyeksi Harga Internasional Biji Kakao Hingga Tahun 2020
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Harga Internasional Biji Kakao
990
1580
1873
1534
1571
1557
1867
2516
2599
3246
3105
2396
2359
3009
3048
3290
3424
3558
3693
3827
3961
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 11. Perhitungan Proyeksi Konsumsi Biji Kakao Malaysia
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
b=
=
=
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
Rata-Rata
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
0
� ∑ �� −∑ � ∑ �
∑ �2
�
15(3365916 ) – 0 (3665872 )
−∑(�)2
15(280) − 0
50488740
4200
= 12021.13
Y4 (Ton)
139443
138616
117586
167595
229649
258647
270261
310001
323653
279228
302366
299271
299525
285608
244423
3665872
244391.5
X2
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
280
18.7
XY
-6930
-9480
-9365
-6136
-4713
-3114
-1867
0
2599
6492
9315
9584
11795
18054
21336
37570
2504.7
a=
=
=
∑(�) −� ∑(�)
�
3665872 – 12021 .13(0)
15
3665872
15
= 244391.5
Persamaan trend linier :
Y4 = a + bX
Y4 = 244391.5 + 12021.13X
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 12. Proyeksi Konsumsi Biji Kakao Malaysia Hingga Tahun 2020
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Konsumsi Biji Kakao Malaysia
139443
138616
117586
167595
229649
258647
270261
310001
323653
279228
302366
299271
299525
285608
244423
340561
352582
364609
376624
388645
400666
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 13. Perhitungan Proyeksi GDP Per Kapita Malaysia
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
b=
=
=
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
Rata-Rata
� ∑ �� −∑ � ∑ �
∑ � 2 −∑(�)2
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
0
�
15(169402 ) – 0 (108785 )
15(280)− 0
2541030
4200
= 605.01
Y5 (Ton)
4005
3879
4133
4431
4925
5564
6195
7241
8487
7312
9069
10428
10835
10974
11307
108785
7252.3
XY
-28035
-23274
-20665
-17724
-14775
-11128
-6195
0
8487
14624
27207
41712
54175
65844
79149
169402
11293.5
a=
=
=
X2
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
280
18.7
∑(�)−� ∑(�)
�
108785 – (605.01)(0)
15
108785
15
= 7252.3
Persamaan trend linier:
Y5 = a + bX
Y5 = 7252.3 + 605.01X
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 14. Proyeksi GDP Per Kapita Malaysia Hingga Tahun 2020
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
GDP Per Kapita Malaysia
4005
3879
4133
4431
4925
5564
6195
7241
8487
7312
9069
10428
10835
10974
11307
12092
12697
13302
13907
14512
15117
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 15. Perhitungan Proyeksi Nilai Tukar Riil Rupiah Terhadap
Dollar
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
b=
=
=
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
Rata-Rata
� ∑ �� −∑ � ∑ �
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
0
� ∑ � 2 −∑(�)2
15(−132169 ) – 0 (172858 )
15(280)− 0
−1982535
4200
= - 472.03
Y6 (Ton)
15121
16969
13992
12374
12446
12657
10892
10516
10554
10751
9090
8587
8994
9557
10358
172858
11523.9
X2
49
36
25
16
9
4
1
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
280
18.7
XY
-105847
-101814
-69960
-49496
-37338
-25314
-10892
0
10554
21502
27270
34348
44970
57342
72506
-132169
-8811.3
a=
=
=
∑(�)−� ∑(�)
�
172858 – (−472.03)(0)
15
172858
15
= 11523.87
Persamaan trend linier:
Y5 = a + bX
Y5 = 11523.87 – 472.03X
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 16. Proyeksi Nilai Tukar Riil Rupiah Terhadap Dollar Hingga
Tahun 2020
No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
Tahun
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
X
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Nilai Tukar Riil Rupiah Terhadap Dollar
15121
16969
13992
12374
12446
12657
10892
10516
10554
10751
9090
8587
8994
9557
10358
7748
7276
6804
6332
5860
5387
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 17. Hasil Estimasi SPSS Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi
Penawaran Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara
Descriptive Statistics
N
X
P
PD
PI
Valid N (listwise)
Minimum
15
15
15
15
15
Maximum
9796.00
31789.00
8042.00
990.00
Sum
51516.00
67341.00
33379.00
3246.00
Mean
523122.00
765610.00
251761.00
33250.00
34874.8000
51040.6667
16784.0667
2216.6667
Std. Deviation
11135.84613
11105.80354
7723.72645
703.27181
Descriptive Statistics
Mean
X
P
PD
PI
Std. Deviation
34874.8000
51040.6667
16784.0667
2216.6667
N
11135.84613
11105.80354
7723.72645
703.27181
15
15
15
15
Correlations
X
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (1-tailed)
N
P
PD
PI
X
1.000
.852
-.155
.298
P
.852
1.000
-.231
.103
PD
-.155
-.231
1.000
.826
PI
.298
.103
.826
1.000
X
.
.000
.291
.141
P
.000
.
.203
.358
PD
.291
.203
.
.000
PI
.141
.358
.000
.
X
15
15
15
15
P
15
15
15
15
PD
15
15
15
15
PI
15
15
15
15
Variables Entered/Removed
Model
1
Variables
Entered
Variables
Removed
a
PI, P, PD
Method
. Enter
a. All requested variables entered.
b
Model Summary
Model
1
R
.927
R Square
a
.859
Adjusted R
Square
.820
Std. Error of the
Estimate
4725.40683
Durbin-Watson
1.872
a. Predictors: (Constant), PI, P, PD
b. Dependent Variable: X
Universitas Sumatera Utara
b
ANOVA
Model
1
Sum of Squares
df
Mean Square
Regression
1.490E9
3
4.968E8
Residual
2.456E8
11
2.233E7
Total
1.736E9
14
F
Sig.
22.250
.000
a
a. Predictors: (Constant), PI, P, PD
b. Dependent Variable: X
Coefficients
a
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Std. Error
-8406.218
7293.951
.627
.139
-.921
12.056
P
PD
PI
Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
t
Sig.
-1.152
.274
.626
4.529
.001
.352
-.639
-2.619
.024
3.779
.761
3.191
.009
a. Dependent Variable: X
Coefficients
a
Collinearity Statistics
Model
1
Tolerance
VIF
P
.674
1.484
PD
.216
4.629
PI
.226
4.427
a. Dependent Variable: X
Universitas Sumatera Utara
One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
Unstandardized
Residual
N
Normal Parameters
a,,b
Most Extreme Differences
Mean
Std. Deviation
Absolute
Positive
Negative
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
15
.0000000
4.18862547E3
.135
.076
-.135
.523
.947
a. Test distribution is Normal.
b. Calculated from data.
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 18. Hasil Estimasi SPSS Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi
Permintaan Ekspor Biji Kakao Sumatera Utara Ke Malaysia
Descriptive Statistics
N
Minimum
XM
C
PI
GDP
ER
Valid N (listwise)
15
15
15
15
15
15
Maximum
3906.00
117586.00
990.00
3879.00
8587.00
Sum
28520.00
323653.00
3246.00
11307.00
16969.00
Mean
255974.00
3665872.00
33250.00
108785.00
172858.00
Std. Deviation
17064.9333
244391.4667
2216.6667
7252.3333
11523.8667
Descriptive Statistics
Mean
XM
C
PI
GDP
ER
Std. Deviation
17064.9333
244391.4667
2216.6667
7252.3333
11523.8667
N
7355.86307
69786.23092
703.27181
2765.08162
2400.40946
15
15
15
15
15
Correlations
XM
Pearson Correlation
XM
GDP
ER
.828
.608
.441
-.726
C
.828
1.000
.685
.749
-.869
PI
.608
.685
1.000
.796
-.739
GDP
.441
.749
.796
1.000
-.857
-.726
-.869
-.739
-.857
1.000
XM
N
PI
1.000
ER
Sig. (1-tailed)
C
.
.000
.008
.050
.001
C
.000
.
.002
.001
.000
PI
.008
.002
.
.000
.001
GDP
.050
.001
.000
.
.000
ER
.001
.000
.001
.000
.
XM
15
15
15
15
15
C
15
15
15
15
15
PI
15
15
15
15
15
GDP
15
15
15
15
15
ER
15
15
15
15
15
Variables Entered/Removed
Model
1
Variables
Entered
Variables
Removed
a
ER, PI, C, GDP
Method
. Enter
a. All requested variables entered.
Universitas Sumatera Utara
7355.86307
69786.23092
703.27181
2765.08162
2400.40946
b
Model Summary
Model
R
1
Adjusted R
Square
R Square
.937
a
.878
Std. Error of the
Estimate
.829
Durbin-Watson
3043.81281
2.629
a. Predictors: (Constant), ER, PI, C, GDP
b. Dependent Variable: XM
b
ANOVA
Model
1
Sum of Squares
df
Mean Square
Regression
6.649E8
4
1.662E8
Residual
9.265E7
10
9264796.431
Total
7.575E8
14
F
Sig.
17.941
.000
a
a. Predictors: (Constant), ER, PI, C, GDP
b. Dependent Variable: XM
Coefficients
a
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Std. Error
26927.877
16961.544
.078
.024
C
PI
Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
t
.744
Sig.
1.588
.143
3.296
.008
4.476
1.961
.428
2.283
.046
GDP
-2.540
.646
-.955
-3.930
.003
ER
-1.782
.883
-.581
-2.019
.071
a. Dependent Variable: XM
Coefficients
a
Collinearity Statistics
Model
1
Tolerance
VIF
C
.240
4.167
PI
.348
2.874
GDP
.207
4.825
ER
.147
6.781
a. Dependent Variable: XM
Universitas Sumatera Utara
One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
Unstandardized
Residual
N
Normal Parameters
a,,b
Most Extreme Differences
Mean
Std. Deviation
Absolute
Positive
Negative
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
15
.0000000
2.57249135E3
.131
.120
-.131
.507
.959
a. Test distribution is Normal.
b. Calculated from data.
Universitas Sumatera Utara