Analisis Pengaruh Jumlah Armada, Jumlah Nelayan, PDRB, Dan Investasi Terhadap Produksi Perikanan Di Wilayah Nias (Analisis Data Panel)
Tarigan, Robinson, 2006, Ekonomi Regional : Teori dan Aplikasi, Medan : PT.
Bumi Aksara. Tarigan, Robinson, 2009, Perencanaan Pembangunan Wilayah. Edisi revisi, Medan : PT. Bumi Aksara, LAMPIRAN Lampiran 1. Data produksi perikanan, jumlah armada, jumlah nelayan, PDRB, dan Investasi Sektor Perikanan di Wilayah Nias
Kabupaten/ Jenis data Tahun Kota 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Nias Produksi perikanan 139,27 78,95 81,74 242,12 367,57
Jumlah Armada 479 514 659 644 192 Jumlah nelayan 492 529 682 793 985 PDRB 435289 478510 510793.15 545563.64 629852.63 Investasi sektor 29867,8 32459,9 34252,69 36856,74 38020,29 perikanan
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5 Nias Selatan Produksi perikanan 254,4 518,18 1594 1859 2167 Jumlah Armada 562 586 649 717 836 Jumlah nelayan 4022 4125 4083 4212 4320 PDRB 1136549 1182897 1231579.09 1286515.9 1330786.38
.64 .8
Investasi sektor 84368,6 86175,4 89772,07 92635,23 95493,09 perikanan1
7 Nias Utara Produksi perikanan 3970,2 4310,07 5776 9089 9361 Jumlah Armada 786 890 1072 1287 1390 Jumlah nelayan 1399 1580 1672 2017 2138 PDRB 380158. 459232. 490124.94 523868.69 578540.61
92
61 Investasi sektor 30281,1 33117,2 35257,35 37594,16 39856,28 perikanan
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5 Nias Barat Produksi perikanan 3423,3 3538,8 4672,95 5326,35 5994,1 Jumlah Armada 634 697 758 925 1022 Jumlah nelayan 898 925 1090 1415 1495 PDRB 226108. 239040. 254679.43 271274.74 309973.47
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31 Investasi sektor 26781,3 27511,7 30350,62 31815,69 33869,18 perikanan
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8 Gunungsitoli Produksi perikanan 1497 1832 1987,98 2170,96 2587,39 Jumlah Armada 791 856 928 1357 1401 Jumlah nelayan 1562 1430 1305 1462 1520 PDRB 756845. 813260. 867974.32 1189660 1238637
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17 Investasi sektor 92049,3 94079,0 95708,63 97382,2 98957 perikanan
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2 Lampiran 2. Output dengan metode OLS
a. Hasil Estimasi
Dependent Variable: PP? Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 10/17/13 Time: 22:00 Sample: 2008 2012 Included observations: 5 Cross-sections included: 5 Total pool (balanced) observations: 25 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -748.1169 607.7389 -1.230984 0.2326 JA? 7.137064 0.627730 11.36964 0.0000 JN? 1.440176 0.232858 6.184787 0.0000
PDRB? -0.006146 0.001510 -4.068982 0.0006 I? -0.010837 0.016062 -0.674738 0.5076
R-squared 0.904440 Mean dependent var 2913.573 Adjusted R-squared 0.885328 S.D. dependent var 2648.140 S.E. of regression 896.7465 Akaike info criterion 16.61228 Sum squared resid 16083087 Schwarz criterion 16.85606 Log likelihood -202.6535 F-statistic 47.32313 Durbin-Watson stat 1.533034 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
b. Representasi Hasil Estimasi
Estimation Command: ===================== LS PP? C JA? JN? PDRB? I? Estimation Equations: ===================== PP_KN = C(1) + C(2)*JA_KN + C(3)*JN_KN + C(4)*PDRB_KN + C(5)*I_KN PP_KNS = C(1) + C(2)*JA_KNS + C(3)*JN_KNS + C(4)*PDRB_KNS + C(5)*I_KNS PP_KNU = C(1) + C(2)*JA_KNU + C(3)*JN_KNU + C(4)*PDRB_KNU + C(5)*I_KNU PP_KNB = C(1) + C(2)*JA_KNB + C(3)*JN_KNB + C(4)*PDRB_KNB + C(5)*I_KNB PP_KG = C(1) + C(2)*JA_KG + C(3)*JN_KG + C(4)*PDRB_KG + C(5)*I_KG Substituted Coefficients: ===================== PP_KN = -748.1169312 + 7.13706433*JA_KN + 1.440175647*JN_KN - 0.006145728053*PDRB_KN - 0.010837349*I_KN PP_KNS = -748.1169312 + 7.13706433*JA_KNS + 1.440175647*JN_KNS - 0.006145728053*PDRB_KNS - 0.010837349*I_KNS PP_KNU = -748.1169312 + 7.13706433*JA_KNU + 1.440175647*JN_KNU - 0.006145728053*PDRB_KNU - 0.010837349*I_KNU PP_KNB = -748.1169312 + 7.13706433*JA_KNB + 1.440175647*JN_KNB - 0.006145728053*PDRB_KNB - 0.010837349*I_KNB PP_KG = -748.1169312 + 7.13706433*JA_KG + 1.440175647*JN_KG - 0.006145728053*PDRB_KG - 0.010837349*I_KG
Lampiran 3. Output dengan metode FEM
a. Hasil Estimasi
Dependent Variable: PP? Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 10/17/13 Time: 21:50 Sample: 2008 2012 Included observations: 5 Cross-sections included: 5 Total pool (balanced) observations: 25 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -8634.357 3088.007 -2.796094 0.0129 JA? 3.214306 1.028538 3.125123 0.0065 JN? 2.902094 1.149819 2.523956 0.0226
PDRB? -0.003747 0.002200 -1.703084 0.1079 I? 0.107777 0.092974 1.159209 0.2634
Fixed Effects (Cross) _KN--C 3449.223
_KNS--C -9334.743 _KNU--C 4563.556 _KNB--C 4985.826
_KG--C -3663.861 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared 0.961498 Mean dependent var 2913.573 Adjusted R-squared 0.942247 S.D. dependent var 2648.140 S.E. of regression 636.3983 Akaike info criterion 16.02324 Sum squared resid 6480046. Schwarz criterion 16.46203 Log likelihood -191.2905 F-statistic 49.94516 Durbin-Watson stat 1.547819 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 b. Representasi Hasil Estimasi Estimation Command: ===================== LS(CX=F) PP? JA? JN? PDRB? I? Estimation Equations: ===================== PP_KN = C(6) + C(1) + C(2)*JA_KN + C(3)*JN_KN + C(4)*PDRB_KN + C(5)*I_KN PP_KNS = C(7) + C(1) + C(2)*JA_KNS + C(3)*JN_KNS + C(4)*PDRB_KNS + C(5)*I_KNS PP_KNU = C(8) + C(1) + C(2)*JA_KNU + C(3)*JN_KNU + C(4)*PDRB_KNU + C(5)*I_KNU PP_KNB = C(9) + C(1) + C(2)*JA_KNB + C(3)*JN_KNB + C(4)*PDRB_KNB + C(5)*I_KNB PP_KG = C(10) + C(1) + C(2)*JA_KG + C(3)*JN_KG + C(4)*PDRB_KG + C(5)*I_KG Substituted Coefficients: ===================== PP_KN = 3449.222654 - 8634.357429 + 3.21430633*JA_KN + 2.902093501*JN_KN - 0.0037473773*PDRB_KN + 0.1077768822*I_KN PP_KNS = -9334.743158 - 8634.357429 + 3.21430633*JA_KNS + 2.902093501*JN_KNS - 0.0037473773*PDRB_KNS + 0.1077768822*I_KNS PP_KNU = 4563.555668 - 8634.357429 + 3.21430633*JA_KNU + 2.902093501*JN_KNU
- 0.0037473773*PDRB_KNU + 0.1077768822*I_KNU PP_KNB = 4985.825549 - 8634.357429 + 3.21430633*JA_KNB + 2.902093501*JN_KNB
- 0.0037473773*PDRB_KNB + 0.1077768822*I_KNB PP_KG = -3663.860713 - 8634.357429 + 3.21430633*JA_KG + 2.902093501*JN_KG - 0.0037473773*PDRB_KG + 0.1077768822*I_KG
Lampiran 4. Output dengan metode FEM (babas heterokedatisitas)
a. Hasil Estimasi
Dependent Variable: PP? Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 10/17/13 Time: 21:54 Sample: 2008 2012 Included observations: 5 Cross-sections included: 5 Total pool (balanced) observations: 25 White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected) Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -8634.357 1796.550 -4.806077 0.0002 JA? 3.214306 0.860490 3.735437 0.0018 JN? 2.902094 0.896954 3.235498 0.0052
PDRB? -0.003747 0.001417 -2.643959 0.0177 I? 0.107777 0.067670 1.592672 0.1308
Fixed Effects (Cross) _KN--C 3449.223
_KNS--C -9334.743 _KNU--C 4563.556 _KNB--C 4985.826
_KG--C -3663.861 Effects Specification
Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared 0.961498 Mean dependent var 2913.573 Adjusted R-squared 0.942247 S.D. dependent var 2648.140 S.E. of regression 636.3983 Akaike info criterion 16.02324 Sum squared resid 6480046. Schwarz criterion 16.46203 Log likelihood -191.2905 F-statistic 49.94516 Durbin-Watson stat 1.547819 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000 b. Representasi Hasil Estimasi Estimation Command: ===================== LS(CX=F,COV=CXWHITE) PP? JA? JN? PDRB? I? Estimation Equations: ===================== PP_KN = C(6) + C(1) + C(2)*JA_KN + C(3)*JN_KN + C(4)*PDRB_KN + C(5)*I_KN PP_KNS = C(7) + C(1) + C(2)*JA_KNS + C(3)*JN_KNS + C(4)*PDRB_KNS + C(5)*I_KNS PP_KNU = C(8) + C(1) + C(2)*JA_KNU + C(3)*JN_KNU + C(4)*PDRB_KNU + C(5)*I_KNU PP_KNB = C(9) + C(1) + C(2)*JA_KNB + C(3)*JN_KNB + C(4)*PDRB_KNB + C(5)*I_KNB PP_KG = C(10) + C(1) + C(2)*JA_KG + C(3)*JN_KG + C(4)*PDRB_KG + C(5)*I_KG Substituted Coefficients: ===================== PP_KN = 3449.222654 - 8634.357429 + 3.21430633*JA_KN + 2.902093501*JN_KN - 0.0037473773*PDRB_KN + 0.1077768822*I_KN PP_KNS = -9334.743158 - 8634.357429 + 3.21430633*JA_KNS + 2.902093501*JN_KNS - 0.0037473773*PDRB_KNS + 0.1077768822*I_KNS PP_KNU = 4563.555668 - 8634.357429 + 3.21430633*JA_KNU + 2.902093501*JN_KNU
- 0.0037473773*PDRB_KNU + 0.1077768822*I_KNU PP_KNB = 4985.825549 - 8634.357429 + 3.21430633*JA_KNB + 2.902093501*JN_KNB
- 0.0037473773*PDRB_KNB + 0.1077768822*I_KNB PP_KG = -3663.860713 - 8634.357429 + 3.21430633*JA_KG + 2.902093501*JN_KG - 0.0037473773*PDRB_KG + 0.1077768822*I_KG
Lampiran 5. Output dengan metode REM
a. Hasil Estimasi
Dependent Variable: PP? Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 10/17/13 Time: 21:44 Sample: 2008 2012 Included observations: 5 Cross-sections included: 5 Total pool (balanced) observations: 25 Swamy and Arora estimator of component variances Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -748.1169 431.2969 -1.734575 0.0982 JA? 7.137064 0.445484 16.02091 0.0000 JN? 1.440176 0.165253 8.714961 0.0000
PDRB? -0.006146 0.001072 -5.733587 0.0000 I? -0.010837 0.011398 -0.950771 0.3531
Random Effects (Cross)
_KN--C -2.35E-11 _KNS--C -7.53E-11 _KNU--C
1.41E-10 _KNB--C -7.21E-11
_KG--C
2.99E-11 Effects Specification
Cross-section random S.D. / Rho 0.000183 0.0000 Idiosyncratic random S.D. / Rho 636.3983 1.0000
Weighted Statistics R-squared 0.904440 Mean dependent var 2913.573 Adjusted R-squared 0.885328 S.D. dependent var 2648.140 S.E. of regression 896.7465 Sum squared resid 16083087 F-statistic 47.32313 Durbin-Watson stat 1.533034 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Unweighted Statistics R-squared 0.904440 Mean dependent var 2913.573 Sum squared resid 16083087 Durbin-Watson stat 1.533034
b. Representansi Hasil Estimasi
Estimation Command: ===================== LS(CX=R) PP? JA? JN? PDRB? I? Estimation Equations: ===================== PP_KN = C(6) + C(1) + C(2)*JA_KN + C(3)*JN_KN + C(4)*PDRB_KN + C(5)*I_KN PP_KNS = C(7) + C(1) + C(2)*JA_KNS + C(3)*JN_KNS + C(4)*PDRB_KNS + C(5)*I_KNS PP_KNU = C(8) + C(1) + C(2)*JA_KNU + C(3)*JN_KNU + C(4)*PDRB_KNU + C(5)*I_KNU PP_KNB = C(9) + C(1) + C(2)*JA_KNB + C(3)*JN_KNB + C(4)*PDRB_KNB + C(5)*I_KNB PP_KG = C(10) + C(1) + C(2)*JA_KG + C(3)*JN_KG + C(4)*PDRB_KG + C(5)*I_KG Substituted Coefficients: ===================== PP_KN = -2.345924703e-011 - 748.1169312 + 7.13706433*JA_KN + 1.440175647*JN_KN - 0.006145728053*PDRB_KN - 0.010837349*I_KN PP_KNS = -7.529247332e-011 - 748.1169312 + 7.13706433*JA_KNS + 1.440175647*JN_KNS - 0.006145728053*PDRB_KNS - 0.010837349*I_KNS PP_KNU = 1.409969392e-010 - 748.1169312 + 7.13706433*JA_KNU + 1.440175647*JN_KNU - 0.006145728053*PDRB_KNU - 0.010837349*I_KNU PP_KNB = -7.213505168e-011 - 748.1169312 + 7.13706433*JA_KNB + 1.440175647*JN_KNB - 0.006145728053*PDRB_KNB - 0.010837349*I_KNB PP_KG = 2.988983285e-011 - 748.1169312 + 7.13706433*JA_KG + 1.440175647*JN_KG - 0.006145728053*PDRB_KG - 0.010837349*I_KG
Lampiran 6. Output dengan Uji Haussman Test Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Pool: POOL1 Test cross-section random effects
Chi-Sq.
Test Summary Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob. Cross-section random 0.000000 4 1.0000 * Cross-section test variance is invalid. Hausman statistic set to zero.
- WARNING: robust standard errors may not be consistent with assumptions of Hausman test variance calculation. Cross-section random effects test comparisons: Variable Fixed Random Var(Diff.) Prob.
JA? 3.214306 7.137064 0.324082 0.0000 JN? 2.902094 1.440176 0.730786 0.0872 PDRB? -0.003747 -0.006146 -0.000002 NA I? 0.107777 -0.010837 0.004164 0.0660
Cross-section random effects test equation: Dependent Variable: PP? Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 10/30/13 Time: 12:46 Sample: 2008 2012 Included observations: 5 Cross-sections included: 5 Total pool (balanced) observations: 25 White cross-section standard errors & covariance (d.f. corrected) Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C -8634.357 1796.550 -4.806077 0.0002 JA? 3.214306 0.860490 3.735437 0.0018 JN? 2.902094 0.896954 3.235498 0.0052 PDRB? -0.003747 0.001417 -2.643959 0.0177
I? 0.107777 0.067670 1.592672 0.1308 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables) R-squared 0.961498 Mean dependent var 2913.573 Adjusted R-squared 0.942247 S.D. dependent var 2648.140 S.E. of regression 636.3983 Akaike info criterion 16.02324 Sum squared resid 6480046. Schwarz criterion 16.46203 Log likelihood -191.2905 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16.14494 F-statistic 49.94516 Durbin-Watson stat 1.547819 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000