ACCCRN – City Vulnerability Assessment Report 100
development is necessary to avoid future damage from sea level rise related risks. The measures may include use of these lands for recreation and other uses with minimal
investments on development. Even though structural measures like seawalls may prevent coastal erosion but long term costs and benefits have to be against possible catastrophic
damages from cyclones etc should also be evaluated.
Major modifications in hydrological regime have taken place in Surat and Hazira. Embankments in the city area have constrained the flow within the normal river banks.
Overall Raising of the ground level by more than 3 m in Hazira and closure of tidal creeks that could potentially drain the water further reduced the flood plain. Sea level rise is likely to
further aggravate the free flow of flood waters. The climate change scenarios indicate increase in rainfall by about 100-200 mm of annual rainfall. Also the monsoon rainfall is
expected to be dominated by heavy rain spells separated by longer dry spells. All the above changes can potentially increase the frequency of floods. While near real time weather and
hydrological information based management of Ukai can overcome minor Tapti floods, the competing objectives of the dam irrigation, drinking water, power and partial flood control
cannot avoid the late monsoon floods. With the population increase in the Ukai command area, water demands are only expected to grow.
One of the most important adaptation needs would be to learn to live with the floods, with anticipative planning to reduce the damages. Surat has already taken steps like uninterrupted
water supply even during floods, and aims to harden power supply, communication and other essential services; integrated planning to live with floods will be topmost adaptation agenda
for the city.
5.10 Advanced Warning Mechanisms and Coping Mechanisms
The Surat Municipality has implemented elaborate monsoon preparation process to mitigate risks. The activities include gearing up the administrative system, cleaning up the drainage
and sewerage systems and preparedness for emergency evacuation and regular evacuation drills etc. The full set of activities is beyond the scope of this document. Ukai water levels
are monitored regularly and there are many LED hoardings displaying the Ukai reservoir levels to warn the people. Also advance warnings are provided by megaphones and short
messaging system sms through mobile phones. These advance warning systems have helped in greatly reducing the loss of life. The surveys covered some of these aspects and the
findings relevant in current context as well as possible integration of early warning system design are described. Responses were sought to understand the respite time the different
households got from the early warnings received. The results are presented in the following Table 42.
Table 42: Early warning message received before the 2006 floods Across
SECs as of SEC
Sl. No.
Early warning timehours
Slum Lower
Middle Mixed
Upper Grand Total
1 No warning
46 47
41 28
37 43
2 3 hours
17 22
22 14
25 20
3 3-6 hours
18 15
15 12
13 16
4 6-9 hours
5 5
5 5
5 5
5 9-12 hours
5 5
10 14
5 7
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6 12-24hours
9 6
5 28
16 9
7 24hours
- -
1 -
-
Grand Total 100
100 100
100 100
100 Sample size
295 255
258 58
63 929
Source: TARU Field Study, 2009
About 43 of the sample households could not recollect receiving the early warning. Some of them could not recollect since the event is 3 year old. More than half the households
reported having received the warning. There is a small difference across SECs who recollected the early warning messages. Increasing the respite time will be critical in
preventing losses and also to move their valuable assets to safe places. Improving respite time with location specific warnings can help in greatly reducing losses to movable assets, in
addition to life. The analysis results of source of warning are presented in the following Table 43.
Table 43: Source of Flood Warning across the SECs
Sl. No.
Source of warning
Slum Lower
Middle Mixed
Upper Grand Total
1 Not received
46 48
41 28
37 43
2 Television
18 26
34 53
38 28
3 Loud Speaker
22 15
8 5
10 14
4 Neighbor
9 5
10 10
6 8
5 Community
2 -
- 2
1 6
Radio 2
4 3
3 3
3 7
Others 1
1 2
- 5
2
Grand Total 100
100 100
100 100
100
Source: TARU Field Study, 2009
TV is the main source of warning recollected by the respondents followed by the messages over the loudspeakers. Other options like mobile voice messages especially to illiterate or
semiliterate and sms can potentially give early warning along with these media. Unfortunately, TVs and other movable household assets take the heaviest damage during
floods, especially among poor households living in single storied buildings in more flood prone areas.
Advanced Warning Mechanisms Communication systems Mobile sms was also tried to transmit the early warning to people during the 2006 floods. The
mobile phone penetration has increased greatly since then and data on ownership of the mobile phone across SECS was collected to explore possible use of these devices for early
warning as well as potential for two way information transfer during the event and to get on ground performance on relief activities. The results are presented in the flowing Table 44.
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Table 44: Mobile phone coverage across SECs among the sample households as
of SEC
Sl. No.
No. of Cell phones
Slum Lower
Middle Mixed
Upper Grand
Total
1 Nil
40 35
21 21
30 2
1 43
42 35
43 25
39 3
2 11
15 26
25 43
19 4
3 4
7 11
8 20
8 5
4 1
1 5
2 10
3 6
5 2
2 2
1 Total
100 100
100 100
100 100
Sample size 295
247 248
61 60
911 Source: TARU Field Study, 2009
The Surat Municipal Corporation is planning to set up a GIS assisted two way information system which includes geotagging of all the residential buildings, pre-monsoon update of
people requiring special medical care during emergencies elderly, infirm, babies, pregnant women etc and also volunteer and mobile sms based two way information system to track
essential information. Mobile telephony can play a very important role in this disaster management system.
Coping mechanisms The households have developed several coping mechanisms depending on the economic
affordability and site specific requirements. They include raising the plinth, raised shelves, attics, new first floor in their houses. The prevalence of one or more such interventions across
the respondents is presented in the flowing Table 45.
Table 45: No of coping measures reported by respondents across SECs
Sl. No. No. of coping measures reported
Slum Lower Middle Mixed
Upper Grand Total
1 Nil
47 64
67 72
67 60
2 1
46 30
27 28
29 34
3 2
7 5
6 -
3 5
4 3
1 -
2 1
Grand Total 100
100 100
100 100
100
Note: Sample Size 929 Source: TARU Field Study, 2009
The coping measures are predominantly adopted by the slum dwellers living mostly in single storied houses in most flood prone areas, where they are also exposed to occasional water
logging during heavy rains. Some of the coping measures are not relevant to middle and upper class households, who stay in less water logging prone areas andor multistoried
buildings. Slum dwellers have developed a system of storing all their valuable documents in a plastic pouch which is carried by the members shifting to temporary shelters, while the able
ACCCRN – City Vulnerability Assessment Report 103
bodied members stay as watch and ward to their valuable assets like TV, furniture etc. This behavior can potentially increase the risk of drowning of the persons who stay behind, if the
flood waters are too fast or inundation is higher than the roof tops. The city stakeholders have been studying feasibility of setting up of asset banks across the city on the lines of
railway cloak rooms, where high risk prone households among the poor SECs can store their assets like TVs, Bicycles, motorbikes and productive assets like sewing machines before the
floods and can collect them after the floods. This can potentially reduce the recovery period.
5.11 Industrial profile
