Adaptation requirements indore surat vulnerability and risk assessment report

ACCCRN – City Vulnerability Assessment Report 67

4.12 Conclusions

Water scarcity has emerged as the most important issue which has direct bearing with respect to climate change. Even with the current rainfall pattern, the augmentation of water supply through Narmada Phase III is likely to alleviate the water scarcity only up to 2040 or so. The water scarcity will raise issues of competing demands especially during the drought years. Water scarcity combined with lack of sewerage is reportedly the reason for jaundice outbreaks in summer. Anecdotal evidences indicate that jaundice is not uncommon even in upper and middle income groups, even though it is difficult to directly associate these outbreaks only on water quality alone since contamination of food sold by informal restaurants also may be a contributing factor. Eating out in food stalls is a common practice in Indore. Floods, even though short lived, directly impact about 30 of the population. The frequency of floods has not changed significantly, but a combination of manmade changes including blockage of drainage, road construction and expansion of the city have increased their incidence. Anecdotal evidence indicates increased impacts from floods and water logging. The 2009 flood is an example of extensive impacts of flooding, which is largely related to man induced causes. Also the number of people affected will continue to increase due to expansion of the city. The climate models indicate possibility of less rainy days and more intense precipitation events. If the rainfall increases along with dominance of extreme events, the frequency of flood and water logging is likely to increase. Hardening the drainage and sewerage infrastructure to address such events is essential, especially during implementation of large urban renewal programmes like JNNURM. Indirect impacts of floods include health risks, especially vector borne diseases like Malaria, Dengue and Chikungunia. The viability of vectors is likely to be extended due to water logging as well as increase in temperature. No direct evidences for this phenomenon is available, but the water logging will increase breeding areas for the vectors, while temperature increase is likely to extend the viability period in to winters, which otherwise is not conducive for mosquito breeding. About one third of the city’s households have income stability index of less than 5, majority of which are belonging to lower and mixed SECs. These households will remain vulnerable to disasters and their resilience is likely to be low due to unsteady sources of income. The issues facing the city including water scarcity, poor drainage and sewerage as well as flooding are symptoms of a deeper issue of management of institutions and their responsiveness to people’s needs. While Indore city has been able to attract donor interest and funds for over two decades, it is still unable to maintain existing infrastructure and services. Also it is unable to leverage the lessons learnt from donor funded projects. Even with early start of reform focused projects like FIRE-D funded by USAID, reforms urban local body is in early stage of evolution. The water, sewerage and solid waste problems facing the city are expected to grow unless the focus shifts from new infrastructure building to an integrated approach of planning, implementing and maintaining the essential infrastructure. With the resources like water costing high in financial and energy terms, conservation focused planning and management is necessary. The solutions need to be sought through paradigm shift in management of urban institutions.

4.13 Adaptation requirements

Of all the predicted change in urban environment, water scarcity is currently on top of the Indore’s priorities. The government has invested on Narmada Phase III which is planned for expected 2025 population to address part of this problem. However, the population growth ACCCRN – City Vulnerability Assessment Report 68 estimates may be quite conservative and can drastically increase with improved urban services, which is in stark contrast to very low level of services and livelihood options in the demographic catchment of Indore. Hardening water supply system and conservation of costly water through reducing leakages, recycling and tapping the local sources efficiently will be necessary to face the urban growth and climate change related impacts. Creating demand for equitable supply of water and transparent tracking of water supply will be necessary to reduce ambiguities and prevent collapse of formal grievance redress systems. The city also needs to devise methods and techniques to tap additional rainfall, expected under climate change scenarios, through improved drainage and reduction of solid waste pollution 4 . Indore’s aquifer are highly overexploited, but is an important source of water for a significant proportion of population, especially poor through public hand pumps and energised bore wells. Aquifer recharge will be necessary as well as preventionmonitoring of ground water quality will be essential to conserve this valuable resource, which can be an important standby source in case of shutdown of Narmada Water supply projects due to energy related issues. Sewerage improvement is another major area requiring attention, since the current system is nonfunctional and the existing Sewage treatment plants are working below their capacity. Reuse of water is only possible if the city is able to improve sewerage and treat it to standards acceptable by industrial and other users requiring lower quality of water. With increasing costs of Narmada water and energy dependency, water recycling will be only option to reduce water demands. The increase in flood frequency and waterlogging along with temperature increase is expected to increase transmission of vector borne diseases. The current health system is poor and accessibility by poor is an issue. Improving disease tracking and preventive measures are necessary which needs to include reducing water logging periods, tracking the diseases and improving health care access to poor. Push migration is an issue in this city due to large demographic catchment with low levels of literacy, ever reducing farm sizes and some areas with poor quality of land hilly and denuded and increased frequencies of droughts and floodswater logging The catchment comprise of high proportion of marginal farmers and tribals with little skills relevant for the urban areas. While the city is planning to emerge as knowledge city, the demands for manpower with higher education and technical skills is bound to increase. Building the human resources based on demand from the emerging industries is going to be a big challenge, especially push migrants from Indore’s demographic catchment. 4 Currently the there is no separate storm water runoff system and sewage also gets diverted in to the natural drainage. ACCCRN – City Vulnerability Assessment Report 69 5 SURAT – CITY PROFILE

5.1 Introduction