Income Stability Index Capacity and Vulnerability assessment

ACCCRN – City Vulnerability Assessment Report 47 slum and low income households is in the range of 3-5, indicating less than 10 th class education, which hardly provides any benefit in terms of earning capacity. Even the middle class shows a high proportion of persons with low education indices signifying that the high urban literacy rates do not benefit significantly towards earning capacity. With the city hoping to transform in to knowledge city, would require immigration of large number of educated persons to meet growing needs. Education has remained a major constraint until last decade, where the state has invested heavily on improving literacy, but it has not enabled the neo-literates with higher education to meet the growing challenges of shift from primary and secondary occupations to service based livelihoods. Indore was a trade and commerce town in the past. With the setting up of Industrial estates in the neighborhood, hi-tech manufacturing sector has been attracting highly educatedskilled human resources. The second transformation to service sector based economy will require major improvements in education and skill levels, failing which the income vulnerability is likely to increase. Under the urban transformation and climate change scenario, the city would require major investments in education to empower the households to shift away from resource intensive manufacturing industry to less water demanding livelihoods.

4.9.2 Income Stability Index

Indore city emerged from being a trading centre to textile manufacturing city to a hub for automotives, light engineering, food and pharmaceuticals industries. While most of the large industries are located outside the city limits, Indore provides a variety of services to support these industries, in addition to large hinterland. The occupation profile over three decades is presented in the following table 8, which highlights the transformation. Table 8: Occupational Profile of Indore Sl. No. Sectors 1961 1971 1991 1 Primary Agriculture, forestry, etc 2.3 2.2 3.2 2 Secondary manufacturing 43.3 39.4 33.4 3 Tertiary Services and trade 54.4 58.4 63.4 Source: Indore CDP, 2006 A major shift from manufacturing to trade over 1971-91 decade is observed. The estimates of occupational profile derived from GIS enabled vulnerability survey analysis are presented in the flowing Table 9. Table 9: Indore occupational profile Sl. No. Type Slums Lower Middle Mixed Upper City Total 1 Unskilled vendor Hawker 30 17 7 7 2 Semi Skilled 46 30 12 5 1 14 3 Skilled workers 6 13 15 6 16 9 4 Govt Service Class III, IV 4 8 10 5 9 6 5 Govt Service Class I and II 2 7 12 10 9 6 Self EmployedBusiness 6 19 33 40 47 33 ACCCRN – City Vulnerability Assessment Report 48 Table 9: Indore occupational profile Sl. No. Type Slums Lower Middle Mixed Upper City Total 7 Professionals 3 12 28 14 18 8 Pension others 7 8 4 4 4 5 Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: TARU Primary Study, 2009 Self employedbusiness includes a variety of scales ranging from petty shops to large businesses. Indore has disproportionately high proportion of households engaged in this activity. Even the lower and slum SECs report significant proportion of this occupational class. Livelihood profile of sample settlements is presented in the Map Annexure F. The income stability of households depends on size of monthly incomes, dependency ratio and also on ratio of stable to unstable income sources. With stable incomes the households can venture into long term investments like housing, education and managing fiscal emergencies. Income Stability index was used to compare different socio economic groups across the city. The distribution of income stability index across the SECs is presented in the following Table 10 Table 10: Estimates of Income stability index range across Socio economic classes in Indore city Sl. No. Income- Stability-Index Slum Lower Middle Mixed Upper Grand Total 1 2-3 - 1 - - - 2 3-4 22 18 21 - 5 17 3 4-5 43 34 8 26 18 19 4 5-6 23 20 43 61 22 39 5 6-7 10 22 13 - 14 12 6 7-8 1 4 12 13 36 11 7 8-9 - - 3 - 5 2 Grand-Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 Source: TARU Primary Study, 2009 The income stability across different socio economic groups does not show significant differences across SECs indicating that even though the income levels may be low among the slums and lower SECs, they have fairly satisfactory stability due to stability in incomes. This indicates that demand for lower skilled jobs is high enough to meet the market demands or the dependency ratio is low in case of lower income groups. It is quite common that most of the working age population among the lower SECs is engaged in economic activities. This however hides the fact that many of the lower SECs may be spending significant part of their incomes to remit to the dependents living in their native villagestowns. At the same time, the higher SECs have larger dependency ratios with some of the households engaged in unsteady incomes, but have the capacity to shift their activities more easily. Also they are likely to understate their incomes for various reasons. The analysis indicates that nearly one sixth of the city’s households have less than four in terms income stability index, most of them from the slum, lower and middle income ACCCRN – City Vulnerability Assessment Report 49 categories. Improving livelihoods for these socioeconomic categories will be critical under climate change scenarios that can potentially increase the supply of cheaper labor through immigration from hinterlands, which will reduce the bargaining power of the poor with limited skill sets. The current high demands for skills like domestic work and construction labor due to reduced migration caused by rural employment guarantee schemes may be temporary. It also raises the issue of higher skills and education needs identified under education index reported earlier.

4.9.3 Social Capacity Index