Conclusion Recommendation CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

V. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

5.1. Conclusion

By using Geoinfarmatics techniques the research concluded that: a. By comparing ULS and Satscan on poverty and food insecurity cases in Java, this research pointed out that ULS had a more precise and stable performance compared to Satscan. ULS was suggested as an alternative to thematic maps often used by government institutions. Maps based on SatscanULS were more precise compared to thematic maps because spatial scanning methods could not only detect whether an area was a critical area or not, but also conducted hypothesis testing whether the area was significantly different or not compared to surrounding areas and used the geographical information data to enhance the accuracy of results. b. Based on the joint hotspots of poverty, unemployment, and food scarcity there were nine areas Banyumas, Batang, Cilacap, Demak, Kab. Madiun, Kota Pekalongan, Kulonprogo, Pemalang, Purworejo considered as the most critical area that needed more attention from the government. Most of these areas were located in Central Java. There were only three cities that were not either a poverty, food scarcity, nor an unemployment hotspots, which were Kota Batu, Kota Salatiga, Kota Serang. c. Main factors causing the joint hotspots were identified by using Ordinal Logistic Regression Model. Factors related to the hotspot were school facilities, village trade, village industry, village services, slum areas, and proportion of families without electricity, and proportion of credit facilities.

5.2. Recommendation

Further research on other methods used for hotspot detection should be done. In this research, ULS has better performance than Satscan, it should be simulatedapplied not only in Java but also in Indonesia where there is also a large body of oceans separating the islands. Development towards tools that can be used to enhance the practicality in SatscanULS outputs is also needed. This study hopefully would become a pioneer in further studies at a national level and improvements in results can be done by exploring the possibilities of other covariates and using other sufficient models. REFERENCES Adithmc02. 2008. Simulasi Monte Carlo. [Link] http:adithmc02.blogspot.com200804pengantar-simulasi-montecarlo.html Agresti A. 2002. Categorical Data Analysis Second Edition. John WilewSons, Inc :New Jersey. Anderson NH, Titterington DM. 1997. Some Methods for Investigating Spatial Clustering with Epidemiological Application, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 160, 87-105. [Link] http:satscan.orgpapersk-scanbook1999.pdf [May 7 th 2008] Ariani M, Gatoet SH. 2006. Karakteristik dan Perubahan Pola Konsumsi Pangan Rumah Tangga Rawan Pangan. Pusat Sosial Ekonomi: Bogor Betti G, Ballini F, Neri L. 2006. Hotspot Detection and Mapping of Poverty. DGO 2006 Conference. [BKP] Badan Ketahanan Pangan. 2005. A Food Insecurity Atlas of Indonesia. Dewan Ketahanan Pangan, Departemen Pertanian RI: Jakarta [BKKBN] Badan Koordinasi Keluarga Berencana Nasional. 2004. Pendataan Keluarga; Selayang Pandang. [link]. http:www.bkkbn.go.idarticle_detail.php [August 2 nd 2006] Bungsu AP. 2006. The Spatial Scan Statistic For Detecting Dengue Fever Hotspots in Bogor Municipality. Department of Statistics. Mathematics and Natural Science Faculty, Bogor Agricultural University. [Thesis] Chen J, Roth RE, Naito AT, Lengerich EJ, MacEachren AM. 2008. Geovisual Analytics to Enhance Spatial Scan Statistic Interpretation: An Analysis of U.S. Cervical Cancer Mortality. [link] http:www.ij-healthgeographics.comcontent7157 Freeman DH. 1987. Applied Categorical Data Analysis. Marcel Dekker, Inc : New York Haran M, Molineros J, Patil GP. 2006. Large Scale Plant Disease Forecasting: Case Study of Fusarium Head Blight. DGO 2006 Conference. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S. 2000. Applied Logistic Regression. John WilewSons, Inc :New York. Kardi T. 2008. Monte Carlo Simulation. [link].http:people.revoledu.comkardtutorialmontecarlo Kulldorff M. 1997. A Spatial Scan Statistic. Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods 26:1481-1496. [link]. http:www.satscan.orgpapersk- cstm1997 .pdf [June 14 th 2006] Kulldorff M. 1999. Spatial Scan Statistics: Models, Calculations, and Applications. In Balakrishnan and Glaz eds, Recent Advances on Scan Statistics and Applications. Boston, USA: Birkhäuser. [link]. http:www.satscan.orgpapersk-scanbook1999.pdf [June 14 th 2006] Kulldorff M. 2006. SaTScanTM User Guide for version 6.1. [link] http:www.satscan.org Naus J. 1965. Clustering of Random Points in Two Dimensions, Biometrika, 52, 263-267. [link].http:satscan.orgpapersk-scanbook1999.pdf Patil GP, Taillie C. 2004.Upper Level Set Scan Statistic for Detecting Arbitrarily Shaped Hotspots. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 11:183-197. [link]. http:www.stat.psu.edu~gppPDFfilesTR2002-0601.pdf [May 30 rd 2006] Patil GP, et all. 2006. Hotspot Detection and Prioritization GeoInformatics for Digital Governance Song C, Kulldroff M. 2003. Power Evaluation of Disease Clustering Tests. International Journal of Health Geographics. [link]. http:www.ij- healthgeographics.com content 219 [June 14 th 2006] The Smeru Research Institute. 2002. What Is Poverty and What Are Its Causes? [link]. http:www.smeru.or.idnewslet2002ed02news2002021 [June 5 th 2006] The Smeru Research Institute. 2005. The Measurement and Trends of Unemployment in Indonesia: The Issue of Discouraged Workers. [link]. www.eaber.orgintranet...42...SMERU_Suryadarma_2005_03.pdf [July 30 rd 2009] The United Nations. 2000. Millennium Development Goals [link]. www.un.orgdocumentsgares55a55r002.pdf [ May 12 th 2009] APPENDENCIES Appendix 1 . Municipalities with the Highest Proportion of Poverty in Java Rank Municipality Priority Rank Municipality Priority 1 Trenggalek 44.70 First 25 Pemalang 28.29 Second 2 Batang 43.07 First 26 Kebumen 27.36 Second 3 Bojonegoro 37.62 First 27 Tasikmalaya 27.29 Second 4 Lumajang 36.25 First 28 Magetan 26.99 Second 5 Jember 35.16 First 29 Banjar 26.91 Second 6 Pacitan 34.52 Second 30 Kab.Kediri 26.54 Second 7 Situbondo 34.51 Second 31 Purbalingga 26.28 Second 8 Garut 34.09 Second 32 Brebes 25.89 Second 9 Temanggung 33.96 Second 33 Gunung Kidul 25.00 Second 10 Magelang 33.38 Second 34 Kab.Madiun 24.86 Third 11 Kab.Blora 33.33 Second 35 Grobogan 24.73 Third 12 Kab.Malang 32.78 Second 36 Jombang 24.16 Third 13 Banjarnegara 32.57 Second 37 Kab.Blitar 24.13 Third 14 Bondowoso 32.55 Second 38 Sragen 23.23 Third 15 Kab.Probolinggo 29.88 Second 39 Sukoharjo 23.15 Third 16 Purworejo 29.32 Second 40 Nganjuk 22.93 Third 17 Ngawi 29.20 Second 41 Kulon Progo 22.81 Third 18 Wonosobo 29.15 Second 42 Kota.Belitar 21.88 Third 19 Rembang 29.10 Second 43 Kota Pasuruan 21.88 Third 20 Boyolali 29.08 Second 44 Tegal 21.05 Third 21 Ponorogo 29.04 Second 45 Demak 20.57 Third 22 Tuban 28.91 Second 46 Kota Mojokerto 20.48 Third 23 Wonogiri 28.67 Second 47 Kota Pekalongan 20.24 Third 24 Cilacap 28.61 Second 48 Banyumas 20.07 Third Appendix 2 . Municipalities with the Highest Proportion of Food Insecurity Household in Java Municipality Priority Composite Indicators Priority Quartile Municipality Priority Composite Indicators Priority Quartile Kudus 89.35 Third First Grobogan 71.33 Third Second Batang 83.44 Second First Kab.Mojokerto 71.20 Third Second Pati 82.39 Third First Situbondo 71.15 First Second Pemalang 80.73 Second First Tangerang 71.14 Second Second Temanggung 80.39 Third First Demak 70.94 Second Second Jepara 80.25 Third First Banyuwangi 70.76 Second Second Magetan 79.75 Third First Nganjuk 70.18 Third Second Kuningan 79.37 Second First Lamongan 69.82 Second Second Kab.Blora 79.32 Second First Kab.malang 69.48 Second Second Kab.Madiun 77.94 Third First Garut 69.44 Second Third Gresik 76.61 Third First Sidoarjo 69.33 Third Third Kab.Kediri 76.04 Third First Klaten 68.91 Third Third Wonogiri 76.02 Third First Semarang 68.84 Third Third Purbalingga 75.92 Second First Karanganyar 68.45 Third Third Sukoharjo 75.52 Third First Brebes 68.27 First Third Bantul 75.31 Third First Kab.probolinggo 67.84 First Third Jombang 75.27 Third First Kab.Pasuruan 67.55 Second Third Kulon Progo 75.09 Third First Banjarnegara 66.99 Second Third Pekalongan 74.73 Second First Bojonegoro 66.78 Second Third Banyumas 74.70 Third Second Bondowoso 66.08 First Third Magelang 73.86 Third Second Bandung 65.88 Third Third Cilacap 73.73 Second Second Pacitan 65.63 Third Third Jember 73.58 First Second Bogor 65.60 Third Third Kab.Blitar 73.28 Third Second Rembang 65.25 Third Third Sleman 72.39 Third Second Cirebon 64.64 Second Third Gunung Kidul 71.98 Third Second Ngawi 63.92 Second Third Purworejo 71.95 Third Second Kebumen 63.33 Second Third Boyolali 71.90 Third Second Tuban 63.16 Second Third Lumajang 71.43 Second Second Tulungagung 62.98 Third Third Ponorogo 71.35 Third Second Appendix 3 . Municipalities with High Proportion of Unemployment in Java Rank Municipality Estimated Unemployment Rank Municipality Estimated Unemployment 1 Kota Sukabumi 57.6 150, 292 11 Serang 47.4 850, 183 2 Pandeglang 56.0 609, 530 12 Kota Cilegon 46.6 153, 561 3 Banjar 55.9 91, 798 13 Cilacap 45.5 778, 119 4 Karawang 53.2 1, 003, 417 14 Kota Jakarta Timur 45.3 956, 622 5 Lebak 52.4 609, 751 15 Cimahi 44.8 182, 885 6 Tasikmalaya 49.3 786, 981 16 Kota Tasik 44.6 242, 973 7 Subang 49.1 672, 345 17 Sukabumi 44.6 972, 578 8 Bandung 49.1 1, 965, 429 18 Garut 44.0 982, 371 9 Kota Bogor 48.4 398, 457 19 Cianjur 44.0 898, 658 10 Kota Madiun 47.9 91, 767 20 Kota Belitar 44.0 55, 883 Appendix 4. Side-by-side comparison map of different Poverty Hotspots Using

50, 40, 30, 20, 10 and 5 Maximum Cluster Size a.

Satscan Maximum Cluster Size 5 Maximum Cluster Size 10 Maximum Cluster Size 20 Maximum Cluster Size 30 Maximum Cluster Size 40 Maximum Cluster Size 50

b. ULS