CONTENTS
TEMPERATURE I PRECIPITATION I SEA LEVEL RISE
CHANGE
I URBANIZATION I POVERTY I CLIMATE
IMPACT ASSESSMENT
STRATEGY
10.0 15.0
20.0 25.0
30.0 35.0
40.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr
May Jun
Jul Aug
Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Te m
pe ra
tu re
c 2071
-2100
Observed-Max Observed-Min
A2 -Max
B2 -Max
A2 -Min
B2 -Min
10.0 15.0
20.0 25.0
30.0 35.0
40.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Te
m pe
ra tu
re c
2021 -2050
Observed-Max Observed-Min
A1B -Max
A1B -Min
10.0 15.0
20.0 25.0
30.0 35.0
40.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Te m
pe ra
tu re
c
2046-2065
Observed-Max Observed-Min
CGCM3-Max CGCM3-Min
MPI-Min MPI-Max
Data Source:
DOWNSCALED CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ANALYSIS The climate data past and future from Climate Systems Analysis Group CSAG, Indian Insitute of Tropical
Meteorology IITM, Indian Meteorological Department IMD and Global Historical Climate Network GHCN were analyzed and their results discussed within this report. The CSAG data was downloaded from
University of Cape Town web site accessed between December 2009 and March 2010. CSAG has taken data from nine large-scale general circulaion models and downscaled the scenario results to a scale more
Name of Research Insitute Abbreviaion
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling Analysis CCCMa CGCM3
Centre Naional de Recherches Meteorologiques, Meteo France, France CNRM-CM3
Indian Insitute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune and Hadely Research Center UK PRECIS
1. OBSERVED CLIMATE 2. TEMPERATURE CHANGE PROGNOSIS
1. OBSERVED CLIMATE
Located near the coast, Surat experiences moderate but humid climate. The summers are hot with extreme day temperatures ranging from 37.8
o
C to 44.4
o
C . The climate is mostly pleasant during the monsoon. The winters are pleasant with night temperatures in January dropping to around 15.5
o
C. The average annual rainfall of the city is around 1,222 mm IMD. Most of the rainfall occurs between June
and September.
2. TEMPERATURE CHANGE PROGNOSIS
The monthly average maximum temperatures are likely to increase by about 0.5
o
C per decade. According to the regional models, by 2070-2100 the average maximum temperature may increase by around 4
o
C. This inference is not expected to be diferent with change in the selected model or scenario and neither
is it speciic to a single season. The upward changes in maximum and minimum temperatures combined with high humidity and the urban heat island efect will have major impacts on human comfort, especially
during the summers and the monsoon seasons. OBSERVED CLIMATE
Esimated Monthly Average Maximum Temperature- 2021-2100
10.0 15.0
20.0 25.0
30.0 35.0
40.0
Jan Feb
Mar Apr
May Jun
Jul Aug
Sep Oct
Nov Dec
Te m
pe ra
tu re
c
Surat Historical Temperature: 1960-2000
Tmax 1961-2000 Tmin 1960 - 2000
Tmax 1961-1990 Tmin 1961 - 1990
CONTENTS
100 200
300 400
500 600
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Pr ec
ipi ta
tio n
m m
2071 -2100
Observed 1960-1990 Precis A2
PRECIS B2 100
200 300
400 500
600 700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Pr ec
ipi ta
tio n
m m
2046-2065
Observed 1960-2000 CNRM
100 200
300 400
500 600
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Pr ec
ipi ta
tio n
m m
2021 -2050
Observed 1960-1990 Precis A1b
100 200
300 400
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Pr ec
ip ita
tio n
m m
1900 -2008
1901 -2008
1961-1990 1961-2000
TEMPERATURE I
PRECIPITATION I
SEA LEVEL RISE
CHANGE
I URBANIZATION I POVERTY I CLIMATE
IMPACT ASSESSMENT
STRATEGY PRECIPITATION
SEA LEVEL RISE
FUTURE MEAN TEMPERATURE RANGES- 2021-2100
combined efect of sea level rise and excess rainfall to
increase likelihood of loods
1. PRECIPITATION CHANGE PROGNOSIS
1. PECIPITATION CHANGE PROGNOSIS
