OBSERVED POSSIBLE IMPACTS Impact of Climate Change INCREASING RATE OF URBANIZATION

CONTENTS IMPACT I PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENTAL I SOCIAL I ECONOMIC CHANGE ASSESSMENT STRATEGY WATER- Water supply. SanitaionWaste water. Flood Management I LANDUSE PLANNING I WASTE I COMMUNICATION 1. When Why? History of looding in surat and the reasons 2. Types of loods- loods due to the Ukai dam the Khadi Floods 3. Impact of Urbanizaion, Poverty, Climate change- Observed Projected 4. Public percepions 5. Reported Losses

3. OBSERVED POSSIBLE IMPACTS Impact of Climate Change

The natural causes of loods: - Heavy precipitaion in the catchment of the Tapi or even in the localized catchments of one or more of its tributaries. - Cyclonic storms caused by depressions in the Bay of Bengal, moving north and north-west wards coming in contact with the south west monsoon in the Tapi basin results in heavy downpours. - Siling: Large quaniies of silt brought by the Tapi leading to siltaion at the mouth of the Gulf of Cambay causes the lood water to rise higher and extend inundaion into higher reaches. Moreover, human induced changes in river hydrology have led to increased siltaion. - Efect of Tides: During imes of high ides the draining of Tapi waters into the sea is afected and leads to looding in higher reaches and along the creeks. - Low bank-ful capacity of the Tapi in some stretches means that in imes of heavy water low, the river spills its banks and loods certain areas. The case of the 2006 loods indicate the lack of coping strategies. Even this height will not suice: Coping Mechanisms of Surat to its Recurrent Floods Drat, Peeyush Sekhsaria for TARU Leading Edge.The future likelihood of extreme events due to climate change is likely to exert addiional stress on the city’s infrastructure, increasing the impact of loods. Areas Prone due to Khadi loods Areas Prone due to Ukai induced loods due to 0.4million cusecs discharge due to 0.6million cusecs discharge due to 0.5million cusecs discharge due to 0.7million cusecs discharge Source: ACCCRN Sector Study: Flood Risk Management CONTENTS IMPACT I PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENTAL I SOCIAL I ECONOMIC CHANGE ASSESSMENT STRATEGY WATER I LANDUSE PLANNING I WASTE I COMMUNICATION 1. Increasing rate of Urbanizaion 2. Density, Present Landuse Green space 3. Impact of Urbanizaion, poverty and Climate change

1. INCREASING RATE OF URBANIZATION

As shown in the diagram alongside, the rate of urbanizaion from 1978 to 2004 has steadily increased. Urbanizaion indicates the loss of open agricultural land to city infrastructure and aciviies associated with industrialized, urbanized economies. This trend is likely to coninue given the atraciveness of Surat for pull migrants from across the country.

2. DENSITY, PRESENT LANDUSE GREEN SPACE