CONTENTS
S O C I A L C O H E S I O N
CONFLICT HARMONY
IMPACT
I PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENTAL I SOCIAL I ECONOMIC
CHANGE ASSESSMENT
STRATEGY
PUBLIC HEALTH I INSTITUTIONS I
SOCIAL COHESION
1. CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES: ECONOMY SOCIAL COHESION 2. SCENARIOS
3. IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION, POVERTY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
1. CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
As of part of this project and with support from TARU, a series of workshops were conducted to understand the criical uncertainies and possible future Scenarios for Surat. Ater several deliberaions, the city stakeholders ideniied the economy
and social cohesion as the two criical uncertainies that are likely to shape the future of Surat. Economy:
Despite the current strength of Surat’s economy, the city stakeholders ideniied Economic growth as a criical uncertainty. The investments, infrastructure and human capital that is available in Surat could pave way for economic growth
in the next two to three decades. But, the city stakeholders strongly felt that the global level processes, economic changes and the rate of inlow of migrant workers required to support the labor intensive industries will inluence the city’s economic
growth trajectory signiicantly. The results of the discussion led to the conclusion that the globalizaion of trade including manufacturing, outsourcing of goods and services network has made the economy highly dependent on global factors for
growth and stability. External shocks, for example the global downturn like the one in 2008-2009, will have an impact on Surat’s economy and growth. The frequency and magnitude of such external shocks is likely to grow with integraion of the
world. It has to be noted that Surat, over its 8-9 Centuries of history has felt several such shocks and some of them had taken several centuries to recover from. The stakeholders felt that Surat currently has several advantages, which can be eroded by
shiting of producion centers for texiles and diamonds due to labor and technology changes in other parts of the country world. Compeiion from China, though not strong now, is a mater of concern for some of these industries. these issues have
been brought up in the secion on industry. Social Cohesion:
Surat is known for its community spirit, despite a large migrant populaion. This has been tested ime and again, especially during the several disasters for instance during the plague 1996, loods 2002, 2006, bomb atacks 2008
and other challenges faced by the city in last few decades. The SMC, civil society and local industries have worked together to address these issues. The city ater each challenge, diligently discusses the issues and explores opions to reduce the risks and
vulnerabiliies. This includes cleaning and widening of roads post-plague situaion of 1994, change in rule levels of Ukai dam post- lood 2006, are some of the examples. However, the city stakeholders feel that very high growth of populaion and in-
migraion of people with diferent cultures from across the country is changing the social fabric. Further, the emerging social and cultural diferences within the city are reportedly leading to reducion in social cohesion. These are however intangible
predicions- further explored in the scenarios explained below.
2. SCENARIOS
Based on two criical uncertainies ideniied by the city stakeholders, four sets of future socio-economic scenarios were developed. These provide a combinaion of improvement or decay of Social cohesion X axis and economy Y axis. These
scenarios relect 2030-2040 period and are based on the set of certainies and uncertainies ideniied.
3. IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION, POVERTY AND CLIMATE CHANGE Each scenario explores changes in the ability of society to deal with the impacts of urbanizaion, poverty or the extreme
events due to climate change. Thus, although with urbanizaion, migraion, the inlux of diferent communiies and natural disasters can lead to tears within the social fabric, social cohesion can also be an efecive tool, albeit an intangible one, to
deal with the more tangible and physical impacts To ensure that the social system of the city is an asset rather than a problem in extreme events, it is necessary to create a
more equitable and harmonious social milieu.
E C
O N
O
M I
C
G R
O W
T H
H IG
H
ECONOMIC GROWTH BUT BESET BY CONFLICTS
- No longer a people friendly city - Areas ideniied by places of
origin of immigrants, muliple cultures exising but quesioning
each other - Self suicient gated communiies
with all internalized faciliies and services with home care
and security agency businesses thriving
- Poor communiies fend for themselves, sufering major
conlicts, with an underground system of governance maia
- The core issues are conlicts, safety whilst income takes a back
seat
L O
W SURAT SETS THE PACE FOR URBAN
GROWTH GOVERNANCE - Surat coninues to claim zero
unemployment with a populaion of 10 million.
- The municipality
recognizes Ward groups and decentralizes
powers like traic and emergency operaions
- Traic accidents and street violence reduced.
- Economic base expanded to more customized services fabric to
fashion, diamonds to jewelry - Inclusive, networked, Ecologically
conscious society
- Surat makes it to the list of the most livable and liked city
WHAT WENT UP, JUST CAME DOWN
- The publicized growth is no longer sustainable
- Industry and Investors move out of Surat
- Hazira loses out as Petroleum industry declines
- The City government is unable to manage resources, law and crime
rates increase - Surat is recognized as a high
crime city. As a result security as a business thrives
- Gated colonies with urban exodus.
SURAT- A CITY FOR RETIRED PEOPLE
- Economy shited towards health and elderly care
- The young leave the city, migraion trickles.
- Local development plan focuses on ‘city happiness index’
- Stagnant infrastructure instead of robust growth
- Parks, and open spaces in the area earlier occupied by industries
- Real estate development stops. Few employment opportuniies for
remaining populaion.
CONTENTS
IMPACT
I PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENTAL I SOCIAL I ECONOMIC
CHANGE ASSESSMENT
STRATEGY
ENERGY I INDUSTRIAL GROWTH LOSSES
1. PRESENT ENERGY DEMAND IN SURAT 2. POSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOS
ENERGY TYPE
ELECTRICITY
-Torrent power Ltd -Dakshin Gujrat Vij
Company Ltd.
NATURAL GAS
- Gujarat gas Company Ltd
LPG
- Indian Oil Corporaion Ltd.
LIGNITE
- Gujarat Mineral development
Corporaion
PETROL
-Oil companies
DEISEL
- Oil companies
1. PRESENT ISSUES
