29 Figure 4.4 Comparison consumption with SPSS and EViews 7
Based on the Figure 4.4 above which shows that forecasting using EViews 7 software has higher expectations than on forecasting using SPSS. This is seen
from year to year has predictions starting in the 2011-2022 overall forecasting results put the results by using EViews higher than the SPSS as in 2022 reached
63,148,872 MWh forecasting using EViews 7 greater than using the SPSS reached 52,271,119 MWh.
4.3.4 Population
Comparison of population based on the results of forecasting using SPSS and EViews 7 as in the Figure 4.5.
Figure 4.5 Comparison of populations with SPSS and EViews 7
Co n
su m
p ti
o n
t
Years
p o
p u
lat ion
years
commit to user
30 Based on the Figure 4.5 above which shows that forecasting using SPSS
software has higher expectations than on forecasting using EViews 7. This is seen from year to year has predictions starting in the 2011-2022 overall forecasting
results put the results using SPSS higher than in 2022 EViews 7 like forecasting using SPSS reached 7,519,631 person greater than using EViews 7 which reached
7,464,452 Person. The difference in the forecasting results using SPSS and EViews are caused
by differences in forecasting models. The ARIMA forecasting using SPSS data used is data that has been transformed. While on forecasting using exponential
smoothing model EViews.
Discussion 4.3.5
Determine the long -term demand for electricity in Libya in term of data from 2000-2010
Long-term needs of electricity in Libya based on data from 2011-2022 according forecasting results as the Table 4.10.
Table 4.10 Model Fit Statistic from 2011-2022 by SPSS Years
Real of Consumption MWh
Years Forecasting of demand
MWh 2000
14,522,025 2011
33,396,572 2001
15,208,543 2012
35,112,440 2002
15,445,816 2013
36,828,308 2003
16,702,230 2014
38,544,176 2004
17,931,957 2015
40,260,043 2005
19,909,502 2016
41,975,911 2006
21,730,193 2017
43,691,779 2007
23,016,749 2018
45,407,647 2008
27,748,242 2019
47,123,515 2009
29,427,305 2020
48,839,383 2010
31,680,704 2021
50,555,251 2011
12,993,675 2022
52,271,119 2012
20,602,217 Source: analysis data by SPSS 15 version 2014
Electricity consumption by the parameters of the existing demand for electricity in Libya. Since the power consumption needs must be met, then the
commit to user
31 electricity needs in Libya should not be less than consumption. If that happens, it
will shake up the Libyan economy. Besides that, attention should be paid to that the electric power will be lost, as long as we have not resolved the bias in
producing electricity, should pay attention to power consumption and loss of electricity, or in other words to meet the demands for electricity in producing
electricity it needs to accumulate between electricity consumption and electricity loss.
4.3.6 Production cost in the process of distributing electricity to Libya
