8 b Load factor
Load factor is the planned average load ratio on a period of time to the peak load occurring in that period. Load factor only measures variations and does
not represent the exact designation of the load duration curve.
2.2 Forecasting
A prediction scenario of future events and situations are called forecasts, and the act of making such predictions is called forecasting. Forecasting is the
basic facet of decision making in different areas of life. The purpose of forecasting is to minimize the risk in decision making and reduce unanticipated
cost. One of the most important works of an electric power utility is to correctly
predict load requirements, In broad terms, power system load forecasting can be categorized into long-term and short-term functions. Long-term load forecasting
usually covers from one to ten years based on monthly, yearly values. Explicitly, it is intended for applications in capacity expansion, and long term capital
investment return studies. In simplicity, forecasting is a system for quantitatively determining future
load demand. Amlabu et al. 2013
2.3 Types of forecasting methods
Qualitative methods:
These types of forecasting methods are based on judgments, opinions, intuition, emotions, or personal experiences and are
subjective in nature. They do not rely on any rigorous mathematical computations.
Quantitative methods: These types of forecasting methods are based on
mathematical quantitative models, and are objective in nature. They rely heavily on mathematical computations. Choudhary, et al. 2008
commit to user
9
Qualitative forecasting methods
Figure 2.2 Qualitative Forecasting Methods Choudhary, et al. 2008
Quantitative forecasting methods
Figure 2.3 Quantitative Forecasting Methods Choudhary, et al. 2008
Executive Opinion
Approach in which a group of managers
meet and collectively develop a forecast
Market Survey
Approach that uses interviews and surveys
to judge preferences of customer and to assess
demand Delphi Method
Approach in which consensus agreement
is reached among a
group of experts Sales Force
Composite
Approach in which each salesperson
estimates sales in his
or her region Qualitative Methods
Time-Series Models
Time series models look at past patterns of data and attempt to predict
the future based upon the underlying patterns contained within those data.
Associative Models
Associative models often called causal models assume that the variable being
forecasted is related to other variables in the environment. They try to project
based upon those associations.
Quantitative Methods
commit to user
10
2.4 Time Series
