26 Table 4.9. Result analysis forecasting with Exponential Smoothing Model
parameters by EViews Years
Production Cost Generated
MWh Consumption
MWh Population
2011 405,504,753
26,348,587 12,993,675
6,103,221 2012
533,397,023 34,658,676
20,602,217 6,154,623
2013 543,774,561
35,332,980 6,237,393
Forecasting 2011
537,336,336 34,914,642
34,728,817 6,447,557
2012 571,873,032
37,158,742 37,312,458
6,540,002 2013
606,409,729 39,402,841
39,896,099 6,632,447
2014 640,946,425
41,646,941 42,479,741
6,724,892 2015
675,483,121 43,891,041
45,063,382 6,817,337
2016 710,019,818
46,135,141 47,647,023
6,909,782 2017
744,556,514 48,379,241
50,230,665 7,002,227
2018 779,093,210
50,623,340 52,814,306
7,094,672 2019
813,629,907 52,867,440
55,397,948 7,187,117
2020 848,166,603
55,111,540 57,981,589
7,279,562 2021
882,703,299 57,355,640
60,565,230 7,372,007
2022 917,239,995
59,599,740 63,148,872
7,464,452 Source: Analysis data by EViews
There was gap on empirical data and forecasting. That happened because of war tragedy in Libya. As long 7 month, at libya have internal
conflict, so use electricity consumption can not be forecast as exactly.
4.3 Comparison of forecasting results
Comparisons of forecast results are used to obserences the differences of the variables used in this study. This comparison uses two types of analysis
software the first is ARIMA Model by SPSS and second is Exponential Smoohting by EViews 7.
4.3.1 Production cost
The comparison of production costs is based on the results of forecasting using SPSS and EViews 7 as in the figure 4.2.
commit to user
27 Figure 4.2 Comparison of production costs with SPSS and EViews 7
Based on the Figure 4.2 above shows that forecasting using EViews 7 software has higher expectations than on forecasting using SPSS. This is seen
from year to year has predictions starting in the overall of 2011-2022 forecasting
results demonstrated the results using EViews higher than in 2022 as SPSS forecasting using EViews 7 which reached USD 917,239,995 greater than using
the SPSS reached USD 916,679,895.
4.3.2 Generated
A comparison of forecasting results that were generated using SPSS and
EViews 7 as in the Figure 4.3.
Years
commit to user
28 Figure 4.3 Comparison of Generated by SPSS and EViews7
Based on the Figure 4.3 above shows that forecasting using EViews7
software has higher expectations than on forecasting using SPSS. This is seen from year to year has predictions starting in the 2011-2022 overall forecasting
results put the results by using EViews 7 higher than the SPSS as 2022 59,2599,740 MWh forecasting using EViews 7 achieve greater than using the
SPSS reached 59,599,740 MWh
4.3.3 Consumption
Comparison of forecasting results consumption by using SPSS and EViews 7 as in the Figure 4.4.
P ower G
en era
ted
Years
commit to user
29 Figure 4.4 Comparison consumption with SPSS and EViews 7
Based on the Figure 4.4 above which shows that forecasting using EViews 7 software has higher expectations than on forecasting using SPSS. This is seen
from year to year has predictions starting in the 2011-2022 overall forecasting results put the results by using EViews higher than the SPSS as in 2022 reached
63,148,872 MWh forecasting using EViews 7 greater than using the SPSS reached 52,271,119 MWh.
4.3.4 Population
