Calculation Exponential Smoothing Comparison of forecasting results

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4.3.9 Calculation Exponential Smoothing

The important insight is to know the best method to forecast the electricity demand. Hence, the discussion about error should be added in to the thesis. Calculate exponential smoothing the first column is time or period and the second column is actual data and third, about forecasted data. To find forecasted data, the first row is average actual data, beginning from 2000 -2010. Still in the third column, the second row calculate forecasting, use this formulation: 4.2 F t = Forecasting value period t F t-1 = Forecasting value period t-1 A t-1 = actual value forecasting value period t-1 α = smoothing constant Table 4.14 Calculation Exponential Smoothing the Production data Production Period N Production actual data Production Forecast ES Error ABS Error Cumulatif ABS Error MAD 2000 1 235,846,163 352,003,663 -116,157,500 116,157,500 116,157,500.00 116,157,500.00 2001 2 246,466,479 247,461,913 -995,434 995,434 117,152,934.00 58,576,467.00 2002 3 269,796,996 246,566,022 23,230,974 23,230,974 140,383,907.60 46,794,635.87 2003 4 291,526,568 267,473,899 24,052,669 24,052,669 164,436,576.96 41,109,144.24 2004 5 310,905,610 289,121,301 21,784,309 21,784,309 186,220,885.90 37,244,177.18 2005 6 345,503,222 308,727,179 36,776,043 36,776,043 222,996,928.79 37,166,154.80 2006 7S 369,243,682 341,825,618 27,418,064 27,418,064 250,414,993.08 35,773,570.44 2007 8 392,661,722 366,501,876 26,159,846 26,159,846 276,574,839.51 34,571,854.94 2008 9 441,171,910 390,045,737 51,126,173 51,126,173 327,701,012.15 36,411,223.57 2009 10 468,261,988 436,059,293 32,202,695 32,202,695 359,903,707.42 35,990,370.74 2010 11 500,655,953 465,041,718 35,614,235 35,614,235 395,517,941.94 35,956,176.54 2011 497,094,530 Mean 352,003,663 commit to user 35 Table 4.15 Calculation Exponential Smoothing the Generated data Generated Period n Generated actual data Generated Forecast ES Error ABS Error Cumulatif ABS Error MAD 2000 1 15,324,637 22,872,233 -7,547,596 7,547,595.82 7,547,595.82 7,547,595.82 2001 2 16,014,716 16,079,397 -64,681 64,680.58 7,612,276.40 3,806,138.20 2002 3 17,530,669 16,021,184 1,509,485 1,509,484.94 9,121,761.34 3,040,587.11 2003 4 18,942,597 17,379,721 1,562,876 1,562,876.49 10,684,637.84 2,671,159.46 2004 5 20,201,794 18,786,309 1,415,485 1,415,484.65 12,100,122.49 2,420,024.50 2005 6 22,449,852 20,060,246 2,389,606 2,389,606.46 14,489,728.95 2,414,954.83 2006 7 23,992,442 22,210,891 1,781,551 1,781,550.65 16,271,279.60 2,324,468.51 2007 8 25,514,082 23,814,287 1,699,795 1,699,795.06 17,971,074.66 2,246,384.33 2008 9 28,666,141 25,344,102 3,322,039 3,322,038.51 21,293,113.17 2,365,901.46 2009 10 30,426,380 28,333,937 2,092,443 2,092,442.85 23,385,556.02 2,338,555.60 2010 11 32,531,251 30,217,136 2,314,115 2,314,115.29 25,699,671.30 2,336,333.75 2011 32,299,839 Mean 22872232.82 Table 4.16 Calculation Exponential Smoothing the Consumpted data Consumption period N Consumption actual data Consumption Forecast ES Error ABS Error Cumulatif ABS Error MAD 2000 1 14522025 21,211,206 - 6,689,181 6,689,181.00 6,689,181.00 6,689,181.00 2001 2 15208543 15,190,943 17,600 17,599.90 6,706,780.90 3,353,390.45 2002 3 15445816 15,206,783 239,033 239,032.99 6,945,813.89 2,315,271.30 2003 4 16702230 15,421,913 1,280,317 1,280,317.30 8,226,131.19 2,056,532.80 2004 5 17931957 16,574,198 1,357,759 1,357,758.73 9,583,889.92 1,916,777.98 2005 6 19909502 17,796,181 2,113,321 2,113,320.87 11,697,210.79 1,949,535.13 2006 7 21730193 19,698,170 2,032,023 2,032,023.09 13,729,233.88 1,961,319.13 2007 8 23016749 21,526,991 1,489,758 1,489,758.31 15,218,992.19 1,902,374.02 2008 9 27748242 22,867,773 4,880,469 4,880,468.83 20,099,461.02 2,233,273.45 2009 10 29427305 27,260,195 2,167,110 2,167,109.88 22,266,570.90 2,226,657.09 2010 11 31680704 29,210,594 2,470,110 2,470,109.99 24,736,680.89 2,248,789.17 31,433,693 Mean 21211206 commit to user 36 Table 4.17 Calculation Exponential Smoothing the Population data Population Period n Population actual data Population Forecast ES Error ABS Error Cumulatif ABS Error MAD 2000 1 5,231,189.00 5,785,868 -554,679 554,679.27 554,679.27 277,339.64 2001 2 5,331,311.00 5,286,657 44,654 599,333.35 599,333.35 199,777.78 2002 3 5,434,293.00 5,326,846 107,447 706,780.75 706,780.75 176,695.19 2003 4 5,541,062.00 5,423,548 117,514 824,294.49 824,294.49 164,858.90 2004 5 5,652,797.00 5,529,311 123,486 947,780.87 947,780.87 157,963.48 2005 6 5,769,709.00 5,640,448 129,261 1,077,041.50 1,077,041.50 153,863.07 2006 7 5,893,738.00 5,756,783 136,955 1,213,996.57 1,213,996.57 151,749.57 2007 8 6,023,053.00 5,880,042 143,011 1,357,007.08 1,357,007.08 150,778.56 2008 9 6,149,620.00 6,008,752 140,868 1,497,875.13 1,497,875.13 149,787.51 2009 10 6,262,667.00 6,135,533 127,134 1,625,008.93 1,625,008.93 147,728.08 2010 11 6,355,112.00 6,249,954 105,158 1,730,167.31 1,730,167.31 157,287.94 6,344,596 Mean 5785868.273

4.3.10 Calculation of Exponential Smoothing