1.84 Agriculture at a Crossroads Global Report (English)

Looking Into the Future for Agriculture and AKST | 341 large cities in water-short areas, such as MENA, Central Asia, India, Pakistan, Mexico, and northern China. Water for en- ergy, i.e., hydropower and crop production for biofuels, will further add to the pressure on water resources. Third, signs of severe environmental degradation because of water scar- city, overabstraction and water pollution are apparent in a growing number of places Pimentel et al., 2004; MA, 2005; Khan et al., 2006; CA, 2007 with often severe consequenc- es for the poor who depend heavily on ecosystems for their livelihoods Falkenmark et al., 2007. Lastly, climate change may exacerbate water problems particularly in semiarid ar- eas in Africa were the absolute amount of rain is expected to decline, while seasonal and interannual variation increas- es Wescoat, 1991; Rees and Collins, 2004; Alcamo et al., 2005; Barnett et al., 2005; Kurukulasuriya et al., 2006. 5.4.5 The scope of improving water productivity The reference run foresees a substantial increase in water consumption in agriculture, and particularly in non-agricul- tural sectors. This may be reason for concern. First, already more than a billion people live in river basins character- ized by physical water scarcity CA, 2007. In these areas water availability is a major constraint to agriculture. With increased demand for water, existing scarcity will deepen while more areas will face seasonal or permanent shortages. Second, competition for water between sectors will inten- sify. With urbanization, demand for water in domestic and industrial sectors will increase between 2000 and 2050. In most countries water for cities receives priority over wa- ter for agriculture by law or de facto Molle and Berkoff, 2006, leaving less water for agriculture, particularly near Table 5-19. Irrigation water supply reliability, projected to 2050, reference run and AKST variations. Reference AKST_high_pos AKST_low_neg Region Percent North America and Europe NAE 64 72 60 East-South Asia and Pacific ESAP 56 66 51 Central-West Asia and North Africa CWANA 46 52 39 Latin America and Caribbean LAC 83 86 75 sub-Saharan Africa SSA 87 92 85 Developed Countries 66 74 62 Developing Countries 56 65 51 World 58 67 53 Source: IFPRI IMPACT model simulations. Table 5-18. Selected international food prices, projected to 2050, reference run and AKST variations. Reference run AKST- high AKST_low AKST_high_pos AKST_low_neg Food US per metric ton Beef 2,756 -23 36 -31 63 Pork 1,164 -29 48 -40 84 Sheep goat 3,079 -24 36 -34 60 Poultry 1,434 -34 62 -46 114 Rice 245 -46 105 -62 232 Wheat 173 -53 173 -68 454 Maize 114 -67 311 -81 882 Millet 312 -59 204 -72 459 Sorghum 169 -57 200 -70 487 Other coarse grains 104 -74 545 -86 1952 Soybean 225 -31 56 -43 106 Source: IFPRI IMPACT model simulations.