Agriculture at a Crossroads Global Report (English)

Global

Report

International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge,

Science and Technology for Development

Agriculture

Crossroads

Agriculture

Crossroads

Crossroads

at a

at a

Crossroads

Crossroads

• Reducing hunger and poverty

• Improving nutrition, health and rural livelihoods

• Facilitating social and environmental sustainability

International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development

Global Report

International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science

and Technology for Development

Global Report

Beverly D. McIntyre Hans R. Herren Judi Wakhungu Robert T. Watson IAASTD Secretariat Millennium Institute African Centre for University of East Anglia

Technology Studies

Edited by

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data.

International assessment of agricultural knowledge, science and technology for development (IAASTD) : global report / edited by Beverly D. McIntyre . . . [et al.].

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-59726-538-6 (cloth : alk. paper) — ISBN 978-1-59726-539-3 (pbk. : alk. paper)

1. Agriculture—International cooperation. 2. Sustainable development. I. McIntyre, Beverly D. II. Title: Global report. HD1428.I544 2008

338.9´27—dc22 2008046043

British Cataloguing-in-Publication data available.

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Contents

Statement by Governments Foreword

Preface

Chapter 1 Context, Conceptual Framework and Sustainability Indicators

Chapter 2 Historical Analysis of the Effectiveness of AKST Systems in Promoting Innovation Chapter 3 Impacts of AKST on Development and Sustainability Goals

Chapter 4 Outlook on Agricultural Changes and its Drivers Chapter 5 Looking into the Future for Agriculture and AKST

Chapter 6 Options to Enhance the Impact of AKST on Development and Sustainability Goals Chapter 7 Options for Enabling Policies and Regulatory Environments

Chapter 8 Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology: Investment and Economic Returns

Annex A Authors and Review Editors

Annex B Peer Reviewers

Annex C Glossary

Annex D Acronyms, Abbreviations and Units

Annex E Steering Committee and Advisory Bureau

Annex F Secretariat and Cosponsor Focal Points

Annex G Reservations by Governments Index

vii viii ix 1 57 145 255 307 377 441 495

551 555 560 568 572 575 576 577

vii

In accordance with the above statement, the following governments accept the Global Report.

Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Botswana, Brazil, Cameroon, China (People’s Republic of), Costa Rica, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Ethiopia, Finland, France, Gambia, Ghana, Honduras, India, Iran, Ireland, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Lebanon, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Maldives, Republic of Moldova, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Panama, Paraguay, Philippines, Poland, Repub-lic of Palau, Romania, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Solomon Islands, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, United Republic of Tanzania, Timor-Leste, Togo, Tunisia, Turkey, Uganda, United Kingdom of Great Britain, Uruguay, Viet Nam, Zambia (58 countries)

While approving the above statement the following governments did not fully approve the Global Report and their reservations are entered in Annex G.

Australia, Canada, and United States of America (3 countries)

All countries present at the inal intergovernmental plenary session held in Johannesburg, South Africa in April 2008 welcome the work of the IAASTD and the uniqueness of this independent multistakeholder and multidisciplinary process, and the scale of the challenge of covering a broad range of complex issues. The Governments present rec-ognize that the Global and sub-Global Reports are the conclusions of studies by a wide range of scientiic authors, experts and development specialists and while presenting an overall consensus on the importance of agricultural knowledge, science and technology for development they also provide a diversity of views on some issues.

All countries see these Reports as a valuable and im-portant contribution to our understanding on agricultural knowledge, science and technology for development recog-nizing the need to further deepen our understanding of the challenges ahead. This Assessment is a constructive initia-tive and important contribution that all governments need to take forward to ensure that agricultural knowledge, science and technology fulills its potential to meet the development and sustainability goals of the reduction of hunger and poverty, the improvement of rural livelihoods and human health, and facilitating equitable, socially, envi-ronmentally and economically sustainable development.

Statement by Governments

retariat. We would speciically like to thank the cosponsor-ing organizations of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the World Bank for their inancial contributions as well as the FAO, UNEP, and the United Nations Educational, Scientiic and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) for their continued support of this process through allocation of staff resources.

We acknowledge with gratitude the governments and or-ganizations that contributed to the Multidonor Trust Fund (Australia, Canada, the European Commission, France, Ire-land, Sweden, SwitzerIre-land, and the United Kingdom) and the United States Trust Fund. We also thank the govern-ments who provided support to Bureau members, authors and reviewers in other ways. In addition, Finland provided direct support to the secretariat. The IAASTD was especially successful in engaging a large number of experts from devel-oping countries and countries with economies in transition in its work; the Trust Funds enabled inancial assistance for their travel to the IAASTD meetings.

We would also like to make special mention of the Re-gional Organizations who hosted the reRe-gional coordinators and staff and provided assistance in management and time to ensure success of this enterprise: the African Center for Technology Studies (ACTS) in Kenya, the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA) in Costa Rica, the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA) in Syria, and the WorldFish Center in Malaysia.

The inal Intergovernmental Plenary in Johannesburg, South Africa was opened on 7 April 2008 by Achim Steiner, Executive Director of UNEP. This Plenary saw the accep-tance of the Reports and the approval of the Summaries for Decision Makers and the Executive Summary of the Synthe-sis Report by an overwhelming majority of governments. Signed:

Co-chairs Hans H. Herren, Judi Wakhungu Director Robert T. Watson The objective of the International Assessment of

Agricul-tural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD) was to assess the impacts of past, present and future agricultural knowledge, science and technology on the

• reduction of hunger and poverty,

• improvement of rural livelihoods and human health,

and

• equitable, socially, environmentally and economically

sustainable development.

The IAASTD was initiated in 2002 by the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Na-tions (FAO) as a global consultative process to determine whether an international assessment of agricultural knowl-edge, science and technology was needed. Mr. Klaus Töep-fer, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) opened the irst Intergovernmental Plenary (30 August – 3 September 2004) in Nairobi, Ke-nya, during which participants initiated a detailed scoping, preparation, drafting and peer review process.

The outputs from this assessment are a global and ive subglobal reports; a global and ive subglobal Summaries for Decision Makers; and a cross-cutting Synthesis Report with an Executive Summary. The Summaries for Decision Makers and the Synthesis Report speciically provide op-tions for action to governments, international agencies, aca-demia, research organizations and other decision makers around the world.

The reports draw on the work of hundreds of experts from all regions of the world who have participated in the preparation and peer review process. As has been customary in many such global assessments, success depended irst and foremost on the dedication, enthusiasm and cooperation of these experts in many different but related disciplines. It is the synergy of these interrelated disciplines that permitted IAASTD to create a unique, interdisciplinary regional and global process.

We take this opportunity to express our deep gratitude to the authors and reviewers of all of the reports—their dedication and tireless efforts made the process a success. We thank the Steering Committee for distilling the outputs of the consultative process into recommendations to the Plenary, the IAASTD Bureau for their advisory role during the assessment and the work of those in the extended

group. Additional individuals, organizations and govern-ments were involved in the peer review process.

The IAASTD development and sustainability goals were endorsed at the irst Intergovernmental Plenary and are con-sistent with a subset of the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs): the reduction of hunger and poverty, the improvement of rural livelihoods and human health, and facilitating equitable, socially, environmentally and eco-nomically sustainable development. Realizing these goals requires acknowledging the multifunctionality of agricul-ture: the challenge is to simultaneously meet development and sustainability goals while increasing agricultural pro-duction.

Meeting these goals has to be placed in the context of a rapidly changing world of urbanization, growing inequities, human migration, globalization, changing dietary prefer-ences, climate change, environmental degradation, a trend toward biofuels and an increasing population. These condi-tions are affecting local and global food security and put-ting pressure on productive capacity and ecosystems. Hence there are unprecedented challenges ahead in providing food within a global trading system where there are other com-peting uses for agricultural and other natural resources. AKST alone cannot solve these problems, which are caused by complex political and social dynamics, but it can make a major contribution to meeting development and sustain-ability goals. Never before has it been more important for the world to generate and use AKST.

Given the focus on hunger, poverty and livelihoods, the IAASTD pays special attention to the current situation, issues and potential opportunities to redirect the current AKST system to improve the situation for poor rural peo-ple, especially small-scale farmers, rural laborers and others with limited resources. It addresses issues critical to formu-lating policy and provides information for decision makers confronting conlicting views on contentious issues such as the environmental consequences of productivity increases, environmental and human health impacts of transgenic crops, the consequences of bioenergy development on the environment and on the long-term availability and price of food, and the implications of climate change on agricultural production. The Bureau agreed that the scope of the assess-ment needed to go beyond the narrow conines of S&T and should encompass other types of relevant knowledge (e.g., knowledge held by agricultural producers, consumers and In August 2002, the World Bank and the Food and

Agri-culture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations initiated a global consultative process to determine whether an in-ternational assessment of agricultural knowledge, science and technology (AKST) was needed. This was stimulated by discussions at the World Bank with the private sector and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) on the state of sci-entiic understanding of biotechnology and more speciical-ly transgenics. During 2003, eleven consultations were held, overseen by an international multistakeholder steering com-mittee and involving over 800 participants from all relevant stakeholder groups, e.g. governments, the private sector and civil society. Based on these consultations the steering committee recommended to an Intergovernmental Plenary meeting in Nairobi in September 2004 that an international assessment of the role of agricultural knowledge, science and technology (AKST) in reducing hunger and poverty, improving rural livelihoods and facilitating environmen-tally, socially and economically sustainable development was needed. The concept of an International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Devel-opment (IAASTD) was endorsed as a thematic, multi-spatial, multi-temporal intergovernmental process with a multistakeholder Bureau cosponsored by the Food and Ag-ricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the Global Environment Facility (GEF), United Nations Devel-opment Programme (UNDP), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), United Nations Educational, Scientiic and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the World Bank and World Health Organization (WHO).

The IAASTD’s governance structure is a unique hybrid of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the nongovernmental Millennium Ecosystem Assess-ment (MA). The stakeholder composition of the Bureau was agreed at the Intergovernmental Plenary meeting in Nairobi; it is geographically balanced and multistakeholder with 30 government and 30 civil society representatives (NGOs, producer and consumer groups, private sector entities and international organizations) in order to ensure ownership of the process and indings by a range of stakeholders.

About 400 of the world’s experts were selected by the Bureau, following nominations by stakeholder groups, to prepare the IAASTD Report (comprised of a Global and 5 sub-Global assessments). These experts worked in their own capacity and did not represent any particular stakeholder

ix

less extensively than others (e.g., livestock, forestry, isheries and the agricultural sector of small island countries, and ag-ricultural engineering), largely due to the expertise of the se-lected authors. Originally the Bureau approved a chapter on plausible futures (a visioning exercise), but later there was agreement to delete this chapter in favor of a more simple set of model projections. Similarly the Bureau approved a chap-ter on capacity development, but this chapchap-ter was dropped and key messages integrated into other chapters.

The IAASTD draft Report was subjected to two rounds of peer review by governments, organizations and individu-als. These drafts were placed on an open access Web site and open to comments by anyone. The authors revised the drafts based on numerous peer review comments, with the assistance of review editors who were responsible for ensur-ing the comments were appropriately taken into account. One of the most dificult issues authors had to address was criticisms that the report was too negative. In a scientiic review based on empirical evidence, this is always a dificult comment to handle, as criteria are needed in order to say whether something is negative or positive. Another dificulty was responding to the conlicting views expressed by review-ers. The difference in views was not surprising given the range of stakeholder interests and perspectives. Thus one of the key indings of the IAASTD is that there are diverse and conlicting interpretations of past and current events, which need to be acknowledged and respected.

The Global and sub-Global Summaries for Decision Makers and the Executive Summary of the Synthesis Report were approved at an Intergovernmental Plenary in April 2008. The Synthesis Report integrates the key indings from the Global and sub-Global assessments, and focuses on eight Bureau-approved topics: bioenergy; biotechnology; climate change; human health; natural resource management; tradi-tional knowledge and community based innovation; trade and markets; and women in agriculture.

The IAASTD builds on and adds value to a number of recent assessments and reports that have provided valuable information relevant to the agricultural sector, but have not speciically focused on the future role of AKST, the institu-tional dimensions and the multifuncinstitu-tionality of agriculture. These include FAO State of Food Insecurity in the World (yearly); InterAcademy Council Report: Realizing the Prom-ise and Potential of African Agriculture (2004); UN Mil-lennium Project Task Force on Hunger (2005); MilMil-lennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005); CGIAR Science Council Strategy and Priority Setting Exercise (2006); Comprehen-sive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture: Guid-ing Policy Investments in Water, Food, Livelihoods and Environment (2007); Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Reports (2001 and 2007); UNEP Fourth Global Environmental Outlook (2007); World Bank World Devel-opment Report: Agriculture for DevelDevel-opment (2007); IFPRI Global Hunger Indices (yearly); and World Bank Internal Report of Investments in SSA (2007).

Financial support was provided to the IAASTD by the cosponsoring agencies, the governments of Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Ireland, Sweden, Switzerland, US and UK, and the European Commission. In addition, many end users) and that it should also assess the role of

institu-tions, organizainstitu-tions, governance, markets and trade. The IAASTD is a multidisciplinary and multistakeholder enterprise requiring the use and integration of information, tools and models from different knowledge paradigms in-cluding local and traditional knowledge. The IAASTD does not advocate speciic policies or practices; it assesses the ma-jor issues facing AKST and points towards a range of AKST options for action that meet development and sustainability goals. It is policy relevant, but not policy prescriptive. It integrates scientiic information on a range of topics that are critically interlinked, but often addressed independently, i.e., agriculture, poverty, hunger, human health, natural re-sources, environment, development and innovation. It will enable decision makers to bring a richer base of knowledge to bear on policy and management decisions on issues previ-ously viewed in isolation. Knowledge gained from historical analysis (typically the past 50 years) and an analysis of some future development alternatives to 2050 form the basis for assessing options for action on science and technology, ca-pacity development, institutions and policies, and invest-ments.

The IAASTD is conducted according to an open, trans-parent, representative and legitimate process; is evidence-based; presents options rather than recommendations; assesses different local, regional and global perspectives; presents different views, acknowledging that there can be more than one interpretation of the same evidence based on different worldviews; and identiies the key scientiic un-certainties and areas on which research could be focused to advance development and sustainability goals.

The IAASTD is composed of a Global assessment and ive sub-Global assessments: Central and West Asia and North Africa —CWANA; East and South Asia and the Paciic—ESAP; Latin America and the Caribbean —LAC; North America and Europe—NAE; Sub-Saharan Africa— SSA. It (1) assesses the generation, access, dissemination and use of public and private sector AKST in relation to the goals, using local, traditional and formal knowledge; (2) analyzes existing and emerging technologies, practices, policies and institutions and their impact on the goals; (3) provides information for decision makers in different civil society, private and public organizations on options for im-proving policies, practices, institutional and organizational arrangements to enable AKST to meet the goals; (4) brings together a range of stakeholders (consumers, governments, international agencies and research organizations, NGOs, private sector, producers, the scientiic community) involved in the agricultural sector and rural development to share their experiences, views, understanding and vision for the future; and (5) identiies options for future public and pri-vate investments in AKST. In addition, the IAASTD will en-hance local and regional capacity to design, implement and utilize similar assessments.

In this assessment, agriculture is used in the widest sense to include production of food, feed, fuel, iber and other products and to include all sectors from production of in-puts (e.g., seeds and fertilizer) to consumption of products. However, as in all assessments, some topics were covered

Preface | xi

organizations have provided in-kind support. The authors and review editors have given freely of their time, largely without compensation.

The Global and sub-Global Summaries for Decision Makers and the Synthesis Report are written for a range of stakeholders, i.e., government policy makers, private sector, NGOs, producer and consumer groups, international orga-nizations and the scientiic community. There are no recom-mendations, only options for action. The options for action are not prioritized because different options are actionable by different stakeholders, each of whom have a different set of priorities and responsibilities and operate in different socio-economic-political circumstances.

Key Messages

1.1 Setting the Scene 3

1.1.1 The IAASTD 3

1.1.2 Agriculture and its global context5 1.1.3 Emerging issues 11

1.2 Conceptual Framework of the IAASTD 12 1.2.1 Framework for analysis—centrality of knowledge 12 1.2.2 Development and sustainability goals 14

1.2.3 Agricultural knowledge, science and technology (AKST) 16 1.2.4 Agrifood systems, agricultural products and services 20 1.2.5 Direct and indirect drivers 25

1.3 Development and Sustainability Issues 26 1.3.1 Poverty and livelihoods26

1.3.2 Hunger, nutrition and human health30 1.3.3 Environment and natural resources35 1.3.4 Social equity43

1.4 Sustainability Indicators 46 1.4.1 Indicators for the IAASTD46 1.4.2 Working with indicators 47 1.4.3 Indicators in the IAASTD 49

1

1

Coordinating Lead Authors

Hans Hurni (Switzerland) and Balgis Osman-Elasha (Sudan)

Lead Authors

Audia Barnett (Jamaica), Ann Herbert (USA), Anita Idel (Germany), Moses Kairo (Kenya), Dely Pascual-Gapasin (Philippines), Juerg Schneider (Switzerland), Keith Wiebe (USA)

Contributing Authors

Guéladio Cissé (Cote d’Ivoire), Norman Clark (UK), Manuel de la Fuente (Bolivia), Berhanu Debele (Ethiopia), Markus Giger (Switzerland), Udo Hoeggel (Switzerland), Ulan Kasimov (Kyrgyzstan), Boniface Kiteme (Kenya), Andreas Klaey (Switzerland), Thammarat Koottatep (Thailand), Janice Jiggins (Netherlands), Ian Maudlin (UK), David Molden (USA), Cordula Ott (Switzerland), Marian Perez Gutierrez (Costa Rica), Brigitte Portner (Switzerland), Riikka Rajalahti (Finland), Stephan Rist (Switzerland), Gete Zeleke (Ethiopia)

Review Editors

Judith Francis (Trinidad and Tobago) and JoAnn Jaffe (Canada)

edge has been enormously successful particularly since the 1950s, and forms a dominating part of agricultural knowl-edge today. Challenges ahead include the development and use of transgenic plants, animals and microorganisms for increased productivity and other purposes; access to and use of agrochemicals; the emerging challenges of biofuel and bioenergy development, and in a broader sense, the po-litical, social and economic organization of agriculture as a component of rural development. All these challenges have implications (both positive and negative) on the environ-ment, human health, social well-being and economic per-formance of rural areas in all countries. The combination of community-based innovation and local knowledge with science-based approaches in AKST holds the promise of best addressing the problems, needs and opportunities of the rural poor.

4. The majority of the world’s poorest and hungry live in rural settings and depend directly on agriculture. Over

70% of the world’s poor live in rural areas. These 2.1 billion people live on less than US$2 a day. This is not inevitable, and an improved economic environment and greater social equity at local, national, and global scales have the poten-tial to ensure that agriculture is able to provide improved livelihoods. Inextricably linked to poverty are vulnerabili-ties relating to production and consumption shocks, poor sanitation, and lack of access to health care and deicient nutrient intake, placing many in agrarian societies at risk. AKST may help mitigate these negative effects by support-ing appropriate interventions, but it may also increase the vulnerability of poor farmers if no attention is paid to the risks and uncertainties to which these farmers are exposed. The livelihoods of many poor farmers are oriented towards meeting basic needs, particularly food. With insuficient in-come, households have little money to invest in increasing the productivity or sustainability of their production sys-tems. The global trend has been towards a decapitalization of poor farmers and their resources (as well as rural areas), as they experience declining terms of trade and competition with low-cost producers. AKST offers opportunities to con-tribute to recapitalization of such farming households.

5. A vicious circle of poor health, reduced working capacity, low productivity and short life expectancy is typical, particularly for the most vulnerable groups working in agriculture. All persons have a right to

sufi-cient, safe, nutritious and culturally acceptable food. Good nutrition is a prerequisite for health. Although global pro-duction of food calories is suficient to feed the world’s pop-ulation, millions die or are debilitated every year by hunger and malnutrition which makes them vulnerable to infectious diseases (e.g., HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis). In many developing countries hunger and health risks are exacerbat-ed by extreme poverty and poor and dangerous working conditions. In contrast, in industrialized countries, overnu-trition and food safety issues, including food-borne illnesses affecting human health as well as diseases associated with agricultural production systems, are predominant concerns. Notwithstanding, in industrialized countries there is also a signiicant incidence of undernutrition among the poor, and a higher burden of both infectious and noncommunicable

Key Messages

1. Agriculture is multifunctional. It provides food, feed,

iber, fuel and other goods. It also has a major inluence on other essential ecosystem services such as water supply and carbon sequestration or release. Agriculture plays an impor-tant social role, providing employment and a way of life. Both agriculture and its products are a medium of cultural transmission and cultural practices worldwide. Agricultur-ally based communities provide a foundation for local econ-omies and are an important means for countries to secure their territories. Agriculture accounts for a major part of the livelihood of 40% of the world’s population and occupies 40% of total land area; 90% of farms worldwide have a size of less than 2 hectares. Agriculture includes crop-, ani-mal-, forestry- and ishery-based systems or mixed farming, including new emerging systems such as organic, precision and peri-urban agriculture. Although agricultural inputs and outputs constitute the bulk of world trade, most food is consumed domestically, i.e., where it is produced.

2. Agricultural systems range across the globe from intensive highly commercialized large-scale systems to small-scale and subsistence systems. All of these systems are potentially either highly vulnerable or sus-tainable. This variability is rooted in the global agrifood

system, which has led to regional and functional differences around the world—the social, economic and ecological ef-fects of which have not yet been assessed and compared. The global agricultural system faces great challenges today, as it has to confront climate change, loss of biological and agrobiological diversity, loss of soil fertility, water shortage and loss of water quality, and population growth. Sustain-able agricultural production is dependent on effective man-agement of a range of interdependent physical and natural resources—land, water, energy, capital and so on—as well as on full internalization of currently externalized costs. The sustainability of production also depends on the continuing availability of and generalized access to public goods. Find-ing ways of dealFind-ing with these challenges is a highly contest-ed matter: strategies differ because they are bascontest-ed on differ-ent visions of agriculture, differdiffer-ent interests and diverging values. However, while agriculture is a strong contributor to the most critical problems we face today; it can also play a major role in their resolution.

3. Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology (AKST) can address the multifunctionality of agricul-ture. It plays a key role in shaping the quality and quan-tity of natural, human and other resources as well as access to them. AKST is also crucial in supporting the efforts of actors at different levels—from household to national, sub-global and global—to reduce pov-erty and hunger, as well as improve rural livelihoods and the environment in order to ensure equitable and environmentally, socially and economically sustain-able development. On the one hand, tacit and

locally-based agricultural knowledge has been, and continues to be, the most important type of knowledge particularly for small-scale farming, forestry and ishery activities. On the other hand, the development of formal agricultural

knowl-Context, Conceptual Framework and Sustainability Indicators | 3

farming to forestry, livestock production and ishery; it par-ticularly affects resource-poor agriculture. Current as well as future damage due to temperature increases and more extreme weather events and their consequences on the hy-drology of watersheds and groundwater resources are yet to be detected in detail. Agricultural households and en-terprises need to adapt to climate change but they do not yet have the experience in and knowledge of handling these processes, including increased pressure due to biofuel pro-duction. Bioenergy is seen as a potential to mitigate the impact of using fossil fuels as a source of energy, thereby mitigating the impact on climate. While on-farm bioenergy production is emerging as a possibility to make better use of farm residues and excrements, the substitution of fossil fuel through biofuel plantation for transport and mobility is under contention and thus a matter of concern for AKST. The development and use of transgenics is seen very differ-ently by the different stakeholders, ranging from a purely positivist view of genetically modiied organisms (GMOs) as the solution to the problems of agriculture, to a purely negativist view that considers GMOs to be uncontrollable and life threatening. Finally, agricultural trading conditions, rules and standards are changing; together with emerging alternatives, they offer challenges and opportunities.

1.1 Setting the Scene

1.1.1 The IAASTD

IAASTD, the International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development,

comes at a time of rapid change that is affecting both ru-ral and urban areas, as well as the climate and other natu-ral resources—in ways that present unprecedented threats. However these changes also provide opportunities for sus-tainable development and poverty alleviation, and require increased knowledge, science and technology in conjunction with appropriate policies, institutions and investments.

The main goal of IAASTD is to provide decision mak-ers with the information they need to reduce hunger and poverty, improve rural livelihoods, and facilitate equitable, environmentally, socially and economically sustainable de-velopment through the generation of, access to and use of agricultural knowledge, science and technology (AKST). IAASTD uses a conceptual framework that enables system-atic analysis and appraisal of the above challenges based on common concepts and terminology.

The development and sustainability goals of the IAASTD are to:

(1) reduce hunger and poverty,

(2) improve rural livelihoods, human health and nutrition, and

(3) promote equitable and socially, environmentally and economically sustainable development.

Sustainable development is crucial to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future genera-tions to meet their own needs (see WCED, 1987). Using AKST to achieve development and sustainability goals will depend on the choices of different actors related to AKST development and application.

Agriculture plays a prominent role for human well- diseases associated with metabolic syndromes. AKST has an

important role to play in both moving towards food secu-rity and food sovereignty, and breaking the malnutrition– poor health–low productivity cycle.

6. A range of fundamental natural resources (e.g., land, water, air, biological diversity including forests, fish) provide the indispensable base for the production of essential goods and services upon which human sur-vival depends, including those related to agricultural ecosystems. During the last 50 years, the physical and

functional availability of natural resources has shrunk faster than at any other time in history due to increased demand and/or degradation at the global level. This has been com-pounded by a range of factors including human population growth, and impacts have comprised unprecedented loss of biodiversity, deforestation, loss of soil health, and water and air quality. In many cases, such negative impacts can be mitigated; and in some cases, they are. Given the multifunc-tional nature of agriculture, it is critical to consider links across ecosystems in which agricultural systems are embed-ded, as these have important implications for the resilience or vulnerability of these systems. Linkages between natural resource use and the social and physical environment across space and time are an important issue for AKST, with sig-niicant implications for sustainable development and the mitigation of adverse impacts.

7. Social equity issues, including gender, are major concerns in agriculture, as they relate to poverty, hun-ger, nutrition, health, natural resource management and environment, which are affected by various fac-tors resulting in greater or lesser degrees of equity.

As a majority of the world’s poor and hungry live in rural settings and are directly dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, political, economic, cultural and technological factors contribute to mitigating or reinforcing inequality. Women and men have differing roles and responsibilities in productive households, and they can derive varying de-grees of beneits from AKST and innovations. Gender-based patterns are context-speciic, but a persistent feature is that women have a key role in agricultural activities, yet they have limited access to, and control of, productive resources such as land, labor, credit and capital. Agricultural develop-ment sometimes strengthens patterns that are unfavorable to women, such as male bias of the agricultural extension system in many countries. Societies can develop governance institutions, legal systems, social policy tools, and social/ gender sensitive methods (e.g., gender analysis) that seek to minimize disparities and even opportunities out among women and men.

8. Agriculture today is faced with several emerging challenges and opportunities; the evaluation of those relating to climate change, land degradation, reduced access to natural resources (including genetic re-sources), bioenergy demands, transgenics and trade require special efforts and investments in AKST. About

30% of global emissions leading to climate change are at-tributed to agricultural activities. Climate change in turn affects all types of agricultural production systems, from

AKST in a way that mitigates detrimental development dy-namics such as growing disparities, the decreasing share of agricultural value-added and the degradation of ecosys-tems. In other words, the assessment draws lessons about what conditions have led AKST to have an impact on de-velopment that has been positive for human and ecosystem well-being, and where, when and why impacts have been negative. Moreover, it explores the demands that are likely to be made on agricultural systems (crops, livestock and pastoralism, isheries, forestry and agroforestry, biomass, commodities and ecosystem services) in the future, asking what agricultural goods and services society will need under different plausible future scenarios in order to achieve the goals related to hunger, nutrition, human health, poverty, equity, livelihoods, and environmental and social sustain-ability, and whether and how access to these goods and ser-vices is hindered. The result is an evidence-based guide for policy and decision-making.

IAASTD commitment to sustainable development. IAASTD sees the assessment of AKST and its implications for agricul-ture as a prerequisite for knowledge-based decision-making for future sustainable development portfolios. Speciically, IAASTD aims to contribute to knowledge-based, decision-making for future sustainable development by:

1. Identifying interrelations between agricultural knowl-edge, science and technology in view of sustainable de-velopment;

2. Exploring knowledge and scientiic development, tech-nology diffusion, innovations and adaptations of eco-system management;

3. Supporting the integration of agricultural knowledge, science and technology (AKST) within international and national development policies and strategies.

IAASTD’s relationship to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). The MDGs and the MA are cornerstones for develop-ment policy and serve as major references for the IAASTD. In addition to these frameworks, the IAASTD assesses AKST in relation to the objective of meeting broader devel-opment and sustainability goals. It is generally assumed that AKST can play a major role in efforts to achieve the MDGs, particularly that of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger (MDG 1) by improving the productivity of agriculture in general and the competitiveness of smallholders and mar-ginalized groups in the expanding global, national and local markets in particular, as well as by creating employment among poor rural people and making food available to con-sumers everywhere. AKST can also contribute directly or indirectly to improving primary education and social and gender equity, reducing child mortality, improving maternal health, combating HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases (MDG 2-6), and ensuring environmental sustainability (MDG 7) by delivering a variety of supporting, regulating and cultural services (MDG 8). The IAASTD assessment en-ables a more adequate consideration of the linkage between poverty reduction and environmental change.

Key questions for the IAASTD. The major question for this assessment is: “How can we reduce hunger and being on Earth; the IAASTD concentrates on how

knowl-edge, science and technology can contribute to agricultural development. This assessment is a speciic step among sev-eral global efforts to achieve sustainable development that have emerged in follow-up processes and policies of the World Conference in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. AKST will contribute to the achievement of these goals. Speciically, the IAASTD will contribute to knowledge-based decision making for future sustainable development by assessing: (1) those interrelations within AKST relevant to sustainable de-velopment; (2) knowledge and scientiic development, tech-nology diffusion, innovation, and adaptation of ecosystem management; and (3) the integration of AKST within inter-national, regional, national and local development policies and strategies.

What is an assessment?

International assessments are very useful when they ad-dress complex issues of supranational interest and dimen-sions. A number of assessments have been undertaken by many organizations and individuals in the past two decades: the Global Biodiversity Assessment (GBA), the Ozone As-sessment, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA), the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Manage-ment in Agriculture (CA), the Global EnvironManage-ment Outlook (GEO), and now, the International Assessment of Agricul-ture, Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD).

The evidence-based analyses that underpin the outcomes of the various assessments have common characteristics. A key point is that an assessment is not simply a review of the relevant literature; it can be based, in part, on a literature review, but also needs to provide an assessment of the verac-ity and applicabilverac-ity of the information and the uncertainty of outcomes in relation to the context of the identiied ques-tions or issues within a speciied authorizing environment (Table 1-1).

To be effective and legitimate, the assessment process was designed to be open, transparent, reviewed, and widely representative of stakeholders and relevant experts, and the resulting documents to be broadly reviewed by independent experts from governments, private and nongovernmental organizations, as well as by representatives of the partici-pating governments. Obtaining a balance of opinions in a global assessment based on a literature review and relevant expertise is an ongoing and iterative challenge to ensure that it encompasses a broad range of disciplinary and geo-graphical experience and different knowledge systems. The IAASTD has been designed in a way that attempts to ensure effectiveness and legitimacy.

The role of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology (AKST). Agricultural knowledge, science and technology are seen as key factors and instruments for future adjustment of indirect and direct drivers of agricultural outputs, as well as of ecosystem services. Assessing AKST sets the stage for an informed choice by decision-makers among various options for development. It indicates how policy and institutional frameworks at all organizational levels might affect sustain-ability goals. Speciically, it provides the basis for designing

Context, Conceptual Framework and Sustainability Indicators | 5

as taking into account place-based and context-relevant fac-tors and voices to address the multiple functions of agricul-ture. The IAASTD has made clear how contested AKST are among the hundreds of professionals involved, especially formal AKST. Conlicting perspectives on AKST have led to different options for policy-making, and understanding the competing interpretations of AKST does not guarantee a consensual outcome. IAASTD focuses on AKST issues most relevant to development and sustainability goals.

1.1.2 Agriculture and its global context

Importance of agriculture. Agriculture as the source of human food, animal feed, iber and fuel plays a key role in efforts to achieve global sustainable development. It is a major occupational sector in developing countries, with the poorest countries being those with predominantly ag-ricultural economies and societies (FAO, 2000). Approxi-mately 2.6 billion people—men, women and children —rely on agricultural production systems, be it farming, livestock production, forestry or ishery. Food security for a growing world population is positioned to remain a challenge in the next few decades. Most food is produced in Asia and other densely populated poor regions, and most of that food is consumed domestically. Because of the high diversity of ag-ricultural systems across the world IAASTD decided to car-ry out ive sub-global assessments in addition to the global one, in order to adequately address issues in the major agri-cultural regions of the world. These regions have developed to their current state for a variety of reasons, and a more speciic reorientation of AKST is likely to be more effective if it addresses region-speciic issues in agriculture, develop-ment and sustainability. The IAASTD has put particular emphasis on addressing issues relevant to tackling poverty reduction, which is central to the Millennium Development Goals to be achieved by 2015, though these issues are also expected to remain important long beyond that date.

In parallel with the spread and growth of human popu-lation, particularly during the last 300 years, but at a par-ticularly impressive rate since 1950, the transformation of poverty, improve rural livelihoods, and facilitate equitable,

environmentally, socially and economically sustainable de-velopment through the generation of, access to, and use of AKST?” Three questions recur throughout the global and sub-global assessments of IAASTD. They concern:

1. Social disparities: How have changing markets and changing access to markets affected development and sustainability goals, and how has this been inluenced by AKST? How and by what have cultural values, tra-ditions and social equity (including gender equity) been inluenced? What are projected implications of market changes in the future, and how can AKST contribute to informed decision-making?

2. Ecology: How has availability of, access to and manage-ment of natural resources (particularly water and soil resources, as well as plant, animal, genetic and other resources) affected the development and sustainability goals of IAASTD? How can AKST enhance knowledge of natural resource management?

3. AKST: What have been, and what are projected to be, the implications of institutional and policy changes and funding (e.g., private versus public investment; intellec-tual property rights [IPR]; legislative frameworks) on access to AKST, on innovation systems and on owner-ship of knowledge? How will AKST inluence social, environmental and economic outcomes of agricultural and food systems?

Other central issues relating to hunger, nutrition, human health, poverty, livelihoods and the economy, as well as productivity and technologies are part of the sustainability goals and thus further emphasized in the document.

Diversity of views and value systems represented in the IAASTD

AKST is not an entity; it is a diverse ield of knowledge and values. Achieving development and sustainability goals requires probing and experimentation, negotiation, and learning among diverse voices and interpretations, as well

Table 1-1. Differences between a review and an assessment.

Scientific Reviews Assessment

Audience Undertaken for scientists Undertaken for decision-makers from a specified authorizing environment

Conducted by One or a few scientists A larger and varied group based on relevant geographic and disciplinary representation

Issues/Topics Often deal with a single topic Generally a broader and complex issue Identifies gaps in Research issues generally driven by

scientific curiosity

Knowledge for implementation of outcomes; problem-driven Uncertainty statements Not always required Essential

Judgment Hidden; a more objective analysis Required and clearly flagged Synthesis Not required, but sometimes important Essential to reduce complexity

Coverage Exhaustive, historical Sufficient to deal with main range of uncertainty associated with the identified issues

Multifunctionality of agriculture. As an activity, agriculture has multiple outputs and contributes to several ends at the same time (Abler, 2004). Agricultural resource management thus involves more than maintaining production systems. Services such as mitigating climate change, regulating water, controlling erosion and support services such as soil forma-tion, providing habitats for wildlife, as well as contributions to cultural activities such as use and preservation of land-scapes and spiritual sites are some of the positive functions that agriculture provides. The OECD identiies two key elements of multifunctionality: externalities and jointness (OECD, 2005). Agriculture uses public goods—natural re-sources (landscapes, plants, animals, soils, minerals, water and atmospheric N and C) for the production of public ser-vices, common goods, and private goods (food, feed, iber, fuel). These natural resources are controlled and distributed partly through public entities and partly via privately pro-ducing and marketing entities; hence the issue of externality of costs are borne by the public. Agriculture is embedded in local and regional contexts and is always bound to par-ticular, socially deined relationships and interdependencies between the production of private goods and the use and production of multifunctional public goods, which leads to the issue of jointness (Abler, 2004).

Globalization in agriculture

Globalization in agriculture, aided by information and com-munication technologies (ICT), has resulted in economic opportunities as well as challenges, particularly in devel-oping countries. Globalization is typiied by the increased interlinkage and concentration at almost all stages of the production and marketing chain, with functional and re-gional differentiations, and includes transnational corpora-tions that are vertically and horizontally integrated in glo-balization and their increasing power over consumers and agricultural producers. Globalization is also characterized by growing investments in agriculture, food processing and marketing, and increasing international trade in food facili-tated by reduced trade barriers (FAO, 2003). The creation of intellectual property rights has become an increasingly important source of competitive advantage and accumula-natural ecosystems into agriculturally used and managed

land has accelerated, which coincides with the time when formal AKST began to have a signiicant impact. The world population grew from about 2.5 billion people in 1950 to 6.5 billion in 2005, i.e., by a factor of 2.6; in most countries, growth rates have just recently begun to decrease. Trends indicate that the global population will reach between 7.5 and 11 billion people by 2050, depending on the expected average number of children per women (Figure 1-1).

World agricultural output, or more speciically, food output as measured in cereal and meat production, in turn, increased even more during the same period, due to large increases in fertilizer use, herbicides, plant and animal breeding, and extension of irrigated area (Figure 1-2). The total cultivated area increased much less, i.e., from 1.4 to 1.5 million ha between 1950 and 2005 (Wood et al., 2000, based on FAO data), although fallow systems were greatly reduced.

For similar igures indicating equally moderate growth of crop area see also the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA, 2005a). However, more land was converted to crop-land in the 30 years after 1950 than in the 150 years be-tween 1700 and 1850 (MA, 2005a). More than half of all the synthetic nitrogen fertilizer ever applied on the planet has been used since 1985, and phosphorus use tripled between 1960 and 1990 (MA, 2005b). Globally, agricultural output has been growing at about 2% per year since 1960, with higher rates in developing countries because area productiv-ity, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, is still much lower than in industrialized countries and in Asia (FAO, 2006a). Along with an increase in agricultural output, water use in agriculture has increased to 7,130 cubic kilometers today and is expected to double by 2050 (CA, 2007). Another form of competition has recently been ob-served between the use of crops for food and feed and the use of the same crops (e.g., maize) for biofuels; moreover, a competition at the world level is rising for the supply of protein-rich animal feeds.

Today’s land use patterns in general reveal the impor-tance of agriculture as a major land management system transforming and making use of natural ecosystems. Given a global land surface (without Antarctica) of 13,430 mil-lion ha (FAOSTAT, 2006), there are still about 30% for-est ecosystems (nearly 4,000 million ha), part of which are the least converted in a biological sense. About a further 26% (3,400 million ha) are pastureland (FAOSTAT, 2006), of which about half was converted from natural grassland and the rest from forestland or woodland. About 11.5% are cropland (1,500 million ha) (FAOSTAT, 2006), most of which was also converted from forestland. The remaining share of the global land surface are deserts, shrubland and tundra (about 25%), inland water surfaces and wetlands (about 4%), and built up land for human settlements and other infrastructure (about 5%). In sum, more than half of the earth’s land surface is intensively used for agricultural purposes such as cultivation, grazing, plantation forestry and aquaculture; and since 1950 one third of the soil has been profoundly altered from its natural ecosystem state because of moderate to severe soil degradation (Oldeman et al., 1990).

Figure 1-1.Total world population 1950-2050 and average number of children per woman (total fertility). Source: UNFPA, 2007

Context, Conceptual Framework and Sustainability Indicators | 7

has accompanied the net flow of food from poorer to richer

countries (Kent, 2003).

While average farm sizes in Europe and North America have increased substantially, in Asia, Latin America, and in some highly densely populated countries in Africa, average

farm sizes have decreased significantly in the late 20th

cen-tury, although they were already very small by the 1950s (Eastwood et al., 2004; Anriquez and Bonomi, 2007). These averages conceal vast and still growing inequalities in the scale of production units in all regions, with larger industri-alized production systems becoming more dominant partic-ularly for livestock, grains, oil crops, sugar and horticulture and small, labor-intensive household production systems generally becoming more marginalized and disadvantaged with respect to resources and market participation. In in-dustrialized countries, farmers now represent a small per-centage of the population and have experienced a loss of political and economic influence, although in many coun-tries they still exercise much more power than their numbers would suggest. In developing countries agricultural popula-tions are also declining, at least in relative terms, with many countries falling below 50% (FAO, 2006a). Although, there are still a number of poor countries with 60-85% of the population working in small-scale agricultural systems. The regional distribution of the economically active popula-tion in agriculture is dominated by Asia, which accounts for almost 80% of the world’s total active population, fol-lowed by Africa with 14%. Although the overall number tion in the production and trade of agricultural goods.

Glo-balization has resulted in national and local governments and economies ceding some sovereignty as agricultural pro-duction has become increasingly subject to international agreements, such as the World Trade Organization’s Agree-ment on Agriculture (WTO, 1995).

The progressive expansion of commercial-industrial relations in agriculture has put further strain on many small-scale farmers in developing countries who must also contend with direct competition from production systems that are highly subsidized and capital intensive, and thus able to produce commodities that can be sold more cheaply. Newly industrialized countries like India have increasingly subsidized inputs in agriculture since the early 1980s (IFPRI, 2005).

Competition, however, does not only originate in sub-sidies from agricultural policies of richer countries; it may also derive from large entrepreneurial holdings that have low production costs, which are primarily but not exclu-sively found in developing countries. Three phenomena related to globalization are specific for a number of coun-tries: the growing impact of supermarkets and wholesalers, of grades and standards, and of export horticulture, have substantially favored large farms (Reardon et al., 2001, 2002, 2003) except when small farmers get special assis-tance through subsidies, micro-contracts or phytosanitary programs (cf. Minten et al., 2006), for example. A steady erosion of local food production systems and eating patterns

Figure 1-2. Global trends in cereal and meat production; nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer use; irrigation, and pesticide production.

Small-scale farming as a particular challenge for ag-riculture

Despite the crucial role that agriculture has for rural popu-lations in transition and developing countries, agriculture-based livelihoods and rural communities are endangered by poverty worldwide. Based on FAO census data, it has been estimated that about 525 million farms exist world-wide, providing a livelihood for about 40% of the world’s population. Nearly 90% of these are small farms deined as having less than two hectares of land (see e.g., Nagayets, 2005). Small farms occupy about 60% of the arable land worldwide and contribute substantially to global farm pro-duction (Figure 1-3). In Africa, 90% of agricultural produc-tion is derived from small farms (Spencer, 2002). If a high percentage of a country’s population is engaged in agricul-ture and derives its livelihood from small-scale farming, the whole sector is predominantly subsistence-oriented, which makes livelihoods extremely vulnerable to changes in direct drivers such as diseases, pests, or climate, even though its sensitivity to indirect drivers such as markets, infrastructure and external inputs is less pronounced. Not surprisingly, subsistence farmers tend to be very aware of their multiple vulnerabilities and therefore adopt diverse risk-minimizing and mitigating strategies.

Poorly developed market infrastructure such as rural roads and postharvest facilities are among the factors that have limited market access for outputs and inputs (e.g., fer-tilizer) for the majority of small-scale farmers (FAO, 2005a) (Figure 1-4).

Growing disparities have developed over the last 50 years between small-scale farming that follows local prac-tices and industrial agricultural systems that have incorpo-rated formal AKST. A key factor is the tremendous increase in labor productivity in industrialized agriculture and the stagnating labor productivity in most small-scale systems of women in agriculture is falling, the relative share is

ris-ing, i.e., women make up an increasing fraction of the labor force in agriculture, especially in sub-Saharan Africa where hoe agriculture is practiced extensively (Spieldoch, 2007).

While the agrifood sector in toto may still account for a

large portion of national economies, with the production of inputs, industrial transformation and marketing of food, and transport becoming more important in terms of value and employment, agricultural production itself accounts for a diminishing share of the economy in many countries while the other sectors are expanding. Average farm sizes vary greatly by region (see Table 1-2).

Trade and the agricultural sector

International trade and economic policies can have positive and negative effects on different development and sustain-ability goals. In addition, AKST can have substantial roles in the formation of better policies. Poverty-affected agricul-tural producers in particular have been poorly served by trade; unless they have better access to eficient and equi-table market systems, they cannot easily beneit from AKST initiatives (IFAD, 2003). Trade policies and market dynam-ics are thus key determinants of whether and how AKST systems can effectively address poverty, hunger, rural liveli-hoods and environmental sustainability. Although most ag-ricultural production is not traded internationally, national agricultural planning and AKST investment is increasingly oriented towards export markets and designed to comply with international trade rules. Agricultural trade has been increasing in developing country regions particularly since the 1970s (FAO, 2005a).

The focus on export has left many small-scale produc-ers, i.e., the majority of the rural poor, vulnerable to volatile international market conditions and international compe-tition, often from subsidized producers in the North. The globalization of agriculture has been accompanied by con-centration of market power away from producers into the hands of a limited number of large-scale trade and retail agribusiness companies. Corporate concentration along the agrifood value chain can have a signiicant impact on inter-national commodity prices, which have recently risen but have generally been low relative to industrial and manu-factured goods (FAO, 2005a). In addition, increased inter-national trade in agricultural commodities has often led to overexploitation of natural resources, and increased energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Overall the im-pact of trade liberalization has been uneven in industrialized and developing countries.

Table 1-2. Approximate farm size by world region.

World region Average farm size, ha

Africa 1.6 Asia 1.6 Latin America and Caribbean 67.0 Europe* 27.0 North America 121.0

Source: Nagayets, 2005; von Braun, 2005. *data includes Western Europe only.

Figure 1-3. Regional distribution of small-scale farms. Source: Nagayets, 2005 based on FAO 2001c, 2004c and national statistical agencies.

Note: Small-scale farms are defined as those of less than 2 hectares. The total number of small-scale farms is 404 million.

Context, Conceptual Framework and Sustainability Indicators | 9

reasons, including subsidies given to farmers in industrial-ized countries, cheap fossil energy in mechanindustrial-ized systems compared to metabolic energy in small-scale systems, sta-bilized market prices in industrialized countries as opposed to completely liberalized prices in developing countries, and the inability to access inputs on favorable terms as com-pared to large-scale systems. Countries and communities based mainly on small-scale economies are the poorest in the world today, as well as the most threatened by ecosystem degradation (UNEP, 2002). Most small farms with a size of less than two hectares are in Asia (87%), followed by Africa (8%), Europe (4%) and America (1%) (Nagayets, 2005). While the trend in industrial countries has been an increase in average farm size (from about ten to more than 100 ha), it has been the opposite in densely populated developing coun-tries (from about 2 to <1 ha). In some contexts small farm size may be a barrier to investment, however, small farms are often among the most productive in terms of output per unit of land and energy. As yet they are often ignored by formal AKST.

Historical trends suggest that small-scale farms will continue to dominate the agricultural landscape in the de-veloping world, especially in Asia and Africa, at least for the coming two to three decades (Nagayets, 2005). The ab-solute number of small farms is still increasing in a number of countries on these continents, due to further subdivision of landholdings and expansion of agricultural land. This is also relected in the labor force differences between coun-tries (see Figure 1-6).

in developing countries (see Mazoyer and Roudard, 1997; see Figure 1-5). In parallel, work incomes increased most in industrialized countries (Mazoyer, 2001) and prices of in-dustrial manufactured goods generally increased relative to agricultural goods, adding to disparities due to differences between productivity levels.

Many small-scale systems have not been able to com-pete with industrialized production systems for a number of

Figure 1-5. Productivity in developing country cereal systems using motorized mechanization and chemicals and in those using manual or animal-drawn cultivation. Source: Mazoyer, 2001.

Figure 1-4. Small-scale farmer heterogeneity; access and market gap. Source: Huvio et al., 2004

Figure 1-6. Labor force diversity and income circa 1992. Source: Mazoyer, 2001.

588 | IAASTD Global Report

Seeds of Development Program (SODP), 86 Seed systems, 20, 206–207

Serageldin, Ismail, 85

Sewerage use/risks, 171, 171, 451 Sheep/goats: prices, 320, 320; production,

316–317, 318, 319

Shifting agriculture: deforestation, 283; for-est use, 37; population pressure, 177, 177; sustainable alternatives, 380, 384–385, 401.

See also Slash-and-burn agriculture Shrimp farming, 517, 518, 520 Shull, George, 89

SLAM model: applications, 310, 311, 313, 367; description, 311, 366–367, 368; history, 366; structure/data, 366–367; uncertainty, 367, 368

Slash-and-burn agriculture: alternatives to, 178,

178, 380; forests and soils, 22; population pressure and, 177, 177; research indings, 216. See also Shifting agriculture

Small-scale farms: access/market gap, 9; deini-tion, 8; ecological agricultural systems, 385–386; ecosystem services improve-ment, 386; environmental damage, 10; globalization effects, 7, 8, 59; ICT access effects, 309; innovations impact, 379–380; malnutrition reduction, 407–408; market dynamics and vulnerability, 8; mixed crop-livestock systems, 386, 391; Modern Variet-ies, 158, 158; multifunctional agriculture and, 386; plant health, 473; policies and, 217, 217, 442; post-harvest loss reduction, 385; productivity, 9, 379–380, 384–386, 386; regional distribution, 8, 9; soil fertility management knowledge, 158158; sustain-ability, 380, 384–385

Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), 364 Social capital, 269

Social welfare, 108–109

Sociopolitical drivers: collaboration (regional/ global), 269–270; conlict, 269, 270; in ex-isting assessments, 270; political instability worldwide, 270; political system changes, 268–269, 268; public policy choices, 268– 269, 268; social capital, 269; social factors overview, 269; state capacity for policy implementation, 269; types, 268 Soil: environmental services, 446; importance

of, 39; resilience, 39–40; well-structured soil, 174–175

Soil amendments, 402

Soil conservation: climate change adaptation, 419–420; indigenous technologies, 67 Soil degradation: causes, 153, 280–281;

de-scription, 10, 11, 39; Global Assessment of Human-induced Soil Degradation (GLA-SOD), 24, 40; monocultures and, 21; nitrate sources/effects, 40; nutrient depletion, 152,

152, 153; statistics, 39

Soil erosion: climate change, 416; costs, 518; description, 10; effects, 35; no-till agri-culture and, 400; water erosion, 24; wind erosion, 24

Soil fertility: management knowledge, 158; NPK deicits, 174; productivity-enhancing technologies effects, 153; restoring, 174 Soil management: biological nitrogen ixation

(BNF), 170, 170, 175, 175, 180, 400; fal-low system, 168–169, 168; fertile lands, 400–402; food security and, 408; Ghana/ Benin example, 483; importance, 279–281; integrated soil and nutrient management (ISNM), 174–175; loss reductions, 401; low fertility lands, 402; mycorrhizas, 176,

176; nitrogen fertility, 170, 170; organic manures, 400; organic matter, 175, 175, 400; policies and, 446; P-solubilizing bacte-ria use, 400–401; sediment loss reduction, 401; soil amendments, 402; soil productiv-ity and, 169, 169; soil water conservation/ storage, 402

Soil quality: no-till agriculture effects, 175, 175; plant types for improving, 176, 176

Soil solarization, 389

Solidaridad, 86

South African Agricultural Research Council, 82

South East Asian Regional Initiatives for Com-munity Empowerment (SEARICE), 82 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES),

262, 263, 263, 264, 265, 270 Spill-ins, 522, 523–524, 524

Spill-outs, 522, 524

Spillover effects, 522–524, 524

Stakeholders’ impacts: AKST impact assess-ment, 211–222, 211–222; aquaculture, 212, 212; employment conditions, 213,

213; farmer organizations impacts, 212,

212; food safety, 213, 213; food standards, 213, 213; inclusion, 117–119; involvement impacts, 211–212, 212; linkage with actors, 224; marketing, 212, 212; organic agricul-ture, 213, 213; promotion of, 17, 59, 211; seasonality effects, 212–213, 212; tropical products, 212, 212; water use/access, 212,

212. See also Participatory approaches

Staphylococcus aureus, 112, 113

State trading enterprises (STEs), 459–460 State variables, 46, 47

Steiner, Rudolf, 114n

Strategic Impact Assessment (SIA) of trade agreements, 466

Structural adjustment policies: controversy, 220, 220; effects, 215, 215, 218–219, 218, 220, 220; monocultures, 220, 220; poor farmers and, 215, 215

Sui generis protection/systems, 89, 90, 91, 219,

219, 393 Sun pest, 164

Sustainability: agroforestry, 397; AKST goals, 299–301; AKST impact assessment, 172–193, 172–193; alternatives to shifting agriculture, 380, 384–385, 401; aquaculture policies, 309, 399; assessment dificulties, 30; bioenergy, 422–425; crop production/ AKST impact enhancement, 379–391; deinitions/description, 30, 107, 194, 194; extension programs, 209, 209; factors over-view, 2; isheries policies, 308–309, 355, 398–399; future of agriculture/AKST assess-ment, 355; groundwater resources and, 170,

170, 407, 422, 450; IAASTD goals, 13, 14–16, 26–46; indigenous knowledge (IK), 204–205, 204, 273; innovations approach,

206, 206; institutions importance, 206, 206; integrated systems, 172, 172; investment in AKST options, 541; irrigation and, 449– 450, 451; livestock production and, 391; natural resources and, 35, 36, 37, 147, 150,

150, 222, 308, 355; options/environment, 538, 540; pastoralism, 176, 176; small-scale farms, 380, 384–385; society-nature interactions, 207, 207; synergies, 147; water productivity and, 404; water resources management, 402–407, 403, 404, 405, 407, 422, 450; watershed management, 181–182, 181; World Bank assessments, 30; World Summit on Sustainable Development (2002), 49. See alsospecific practices

Sustainability indicators: IAASTD, 46–51, 48; interpretation, 47–48; issues addressed by,

48. See also Indicators

Sustainable Land Management (SLM), 42 Swidden agriculture. See Shifting agriculture Syngenta, 94

Systemwide Program on Participatory Research and Gender Analysis, 45, 203

T

Technography, 483

Technology: access, 411, 526, 526, 534; adop-tion factors, 207, 207, 411; “best it” technology, 73–74; eficiency trends, 271; innovation processes and, 72–75; relation-ship with science, 12–13; risks/costs, 74–75; spillover effects, 522–524, 524; techno-logical opportunity, 505. See also AKST; Science/technology drivers; specific tech-nologies; Transfer of technology

Technology supply-push: description, 73, 481; Green Revolution and, 481; megacity slums and, 74; social problems with, 73, 74; switch to demand-pull approach, 79 Territorial governance, 220–222, 220, 221, 222

Territorial policies, 217, 217

Territory scale, 220 Terroirs, 60, 98

Third-Generation Agriculture (TGA), 224, 443 TIMER model: applications, 313, 316; descrip-tion, 357, 358; energy and, 313, 357, 358 ToT. See Transfer of technology

Total Factor Productivity (TFP), 152, 152

Total fertility1950-2050, 6

Trade at Hand, 69

Trade in agricultural products: changes with globalization, 108; commodity price effects, 453–454, 455; commodity price trends, 453–454, 454, 458, 458, 459; developing countries export share, 457; export oriented agriculture, 68, 442; food trade (model-ing outcomes), 320, 320; policies/market constraints effects, 331–332, 332, 333,

334–337; subsidies of developed countries, 453, 456; trends, 298, 299. See also Glo-balization; Trade/market policy options for developing countries

Trade in water: tradable water rights, 450; vir-tual water/food trade, 451

Trade liberalization: biofuels, 464; developing countries and, 442, 452–453, 454, 455,

Index | 589

442; India and, 335, 337; negative effects summary, 8; projected impacts, 332, 332

Trade/market policy options for developing countries: Agricultural Market Analysis Unit, 461; alternative trade channels, 460–462; bioenergy, 463–465; certiica-tion approaches, 461; certiied organic agriculture (CAO), 460–461; challenges summary, 453; crop/rain insurance, 460; Doha scenario gains/losses, 455, 456, 457; dumping regulations, 458, 466; economy research, 461–462; fair trade, 59, 113, 213, 460; food security issues, 453, 455; governance of trade, 464–466; importing and, 453; international competition policy, 465–466; liquid biofuels, 463–464; mark of origin, 461; microinance/microcredit, 460; National Market Education Programme, 461; non-reciprocal access, 455; optimiz-ing environmental externalities, 462–465; regional integration of markets, 459; regula-tory cost issues, 456, 459; rural farm sector support, 452–453; “special and differential treatment,” 454–455; special products of developing countries, 455; state trading enterprises (STEs), 459–460; subsidies re-form policies, 456, 458; tariffs, 456, 459; technology assessment, 466–467; trade agreements assessment, 466; tradeoffs, 453; tropical commodities supply management, 458–459, 459; world price instability, 466 TradeNet, Ghana, 69

Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), 89, 91, 218, 218, 475–477 Traditional agrifood systems, 24

Traditional/local knowledge: agroforestry, 67, 147, 179, 397–398; assessing value, 520; Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), 91, 92; endogenous development, 482–483; ICT and, 350; importance, 67, 205–206,

205, 411; intellectual property rights, 67–68, 475–476, 477, 479; PPB and, 66; R&D, 223, 272; rural youth and farming, 62; technology transfer and, 63, 64. See also

Indigenous knowledge (IK) Traditional Varieties, 157 “Tragedies of the commons,” 206 Training and visit (T & V) approach, 64–65 Transfer of technology: criticism, 64; “diffusion

of innovations,” 63; drawbacks, 64; effec-tiveness and, 58, 64, 69; exclusion/margin-alization with, 117–118; Green Revolution and, 63; lessons learned with, 117–118; model description, 63, 69; positive impact, 63; traditional/local knowledge and, 63, 64 Transgenic organisms. See Genetically modiied/

organisms (GM/GMOs) Trend indicators, 46, 47 Trichinellosis, 113

TRIPS (Trade-Related Aspects of Intellec-tual Property Rights), 89, 91, 218, 218, 475–477

Tuber/root yields (1961-2004), 150

U

UN Conference on Environment and Develop-ment (1992), Agenda 21, 49, 85

UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, 480–481

UN Declaration on the Right to Development, 114 UN Human Development agency, 70–71 Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948),

43, 114

“University-Industrial Complex,” 96 University models (AKST producers):

agricul-tural schools, 80; agrotechnical institutes, 82; conlicts, 79; constraints of university arrangements, 81; gap between developing/ developed countries and, 80; land-grant col-leges, 80–82; overview, 79–82; patents and, 72, 80, 81–82; Public-Sector Intellectual Property Resource for Agriculture (PIPRA), 94; “publish or perish” impacts, 80 “Urban bias,” 268

Urbanization: effects, 263, 298–299, 300; food consumption patterns, 275; food distribu-tion/delivery, 298–299; future projections, 256, 257, 262–263; megacity slums and, 74 Urban/peri-urban agriculture:

deinition/de-scription, 23; issues, 23, 298–299; urban poor and, 23, 74, 197, 197

Urban wastewater use, 171, 171, 451 Uruguay Round of Trade Negotiations, 109

V

Value-chain analysis, 390–391 Value chains, 24

Vavilov, 89

Vegetables: production, 150, 155; yields (1961-2004), 150

Vegetarianism, 299, 343–345, 346, 347

Via Campesina, 114, 115

Virtual water, 451, 518 Vitamin A deiciency, 33

W

Water access/availability: as agriculture change driver, 277–279; as AKST driver, 308; AKST effects, 337; climate change effects, 324, 341, 421; desalinization, 451; environ-mental degradation and, 279; health issues, 199, 199; internal renewable water (IRW), 324; modeling outcomes, 317, 324, 326; policy recommendations, 449–452; poverty reduction, 185, 185; pricing, 450–451; projection by regions, 324, 324; reducing agriculture “water footprint,” 451–452; scarcity, 308, 317, 324, 326; scarcity projec-tions, 308; stakeholders’ impacts, 212, 212; tradable water rights, 450; trends/statistics, 24, 25, 170, 170, 277–279, 299–300, 541; virtual water/food trade, 451; water rights, 185, 404. See also IMPACT-WATER model; Water resources management; WATERSIM model

Water logging, 40 Water markets, 450–451

Water pollution: fertilizers, 10, 21, 40, 273, 274; Gulf of Mexico, 154; human and ani-mal waste, 10, 24, 40; human health effects, 21; increase in, 39; livestock production, 10, 24, 154, 160, 160; monocultures and, 21; pesticides, 154, 154, 518

Water productivity: AKST impact enhancement,

378–379, 403–404, 403, 404; evapotrans-piration and, 403, 403, 404; improvement by crop, 404; irrigated systems, 406; policy assessment, 341–343, 341, 342, 344

Water productivity/AKST effects: Asia, 342– 343, 342; Latin America, 342; MENA, 342, 343; overview, 341–343, 341, 342, 344; by region, 341, 342–343, 342; sub-Saharan Africa, 342, 342, 343

Water resources: agriculture use comparison,

155, 308; agriculture use statistics, 6, 24,

155, 518; “blue” vs. “green” water, 39, 170; challenges to supply, 324, 325, 326; climate change impacts, 324, 341, 421; complex land use systems effects, 185–186,

185; consumptive use (modeling outcomes), 324, 325; demands, 170, 170, 277–279,

280, 308, 326; forest services, 174, 174; groundwater, 170, 170, 407, 422, 450; internal renewable water (IRW), 324; over-view, 39; quantity, 184; rainfed/irrigated arable land, 39, 39; use projections, 280, 315–316, 324, 324, 325, 326, 326; wet-lands loss, 39. See also Irrigation Water resources management: AKST options/

gaps, 381–382; biodiversity, 405–406; cli-mate change adaptation, 421–422; complex land use systems effects, 185–186, 185; decreasing land degradation, 407; eficiency, 185, 185; environmental/human health, 405; equitable use, 185, 185; estuarine habitats, 186, 186; evapotranspiration management, 403, 403, 404; isheries, 405; gender issues, 185; government role, 215,

215; groundwater harvesting, 170, 170; groundwater resources/sustainability, 407, 422, 450; improvement strategies, 170, 170; integrated water resources management (IWRM), 174, 174; intersectoral manage-ment, 450; livestock production, 404–405,

406; marginal-quality water use, 404, 405; modeling allocations, 221, 221; multiple use livelihoods approach, 404–406, 405; Natu-ral Sequence Farming, 174, 174; payment systems for watershed services, 174; policies needed, 449; sewerage use/risks, 171, 171, 451; small-scale technologies/marketing, 406–407; sustainable use, 402–407, 403,

404, 405; unsustainable use, 171, 171; ur-ban wastewater use, 451; water harvesting, 170, 170, 171, 174; women and, 185. See also IMPACT-WATER model; Water access/ availability; WATERSIM model

Water rights, 185, 404

Water scarcity: infrastructure constraints, 324; projections, 308, 317; water quality con-straints, 324, 326

Watershed management: AKST impact assess-ment, 181–182, 181, 182; Lake Victoria Basin project, 182, 182; need for integrated management, 450; as PES, 462; sustainable strategies, 181–182, 181

Watersheds, 181

WATERSIM model: applications, 310, 311, 314, 343, 362–363; description, 311, 361–363, 363; history, 361; structure/data, 361–362; uncertainty, 363, 363

590 | IAASTD Global Report

Water User Associations, 185, 212, 212

Watson, 89

Weather forecasting, 412

Weeds: climate change effects, 387; IWM (Inte-grated Weed Management), 173–174, 173; non-chemical alternatives, 162, 162, 163,

163; parasitic weeds, 162, 163, 163, 174, 387. See also Herbicides

Weevils, 164 Wetlands loss, 39 Wheat stem rust, 164, 164

Wilderness areas, 444, 445

Women’s issues: biomass fuel collection, 14; credit strategies, 407; division of labor, 46; fuel collection, 201; health issues, 14; intra-household food distribution, 210,

210; natural resource management, 45–46; political involvement, 45; power and, 46; project designs and, 210, 210; role changes/ effects, 275; water resources management, 185; women in labor force, 47. See also

Gender issues

Women’s issues in agriculture: agroforestry, 396, 397; AKST and empowerment, 19, 309; credit availability, 45, 211, 211; crop genetic resources, 88; discrimination against, 211, 211; education/agricultural extension, 207, 207, 208; food security and, 33, 210–211, 210; Green Belt Movement, 65; HIV/AIDS effects, 35; information/ communication, 45, 211, 211; land rights, 35, 200, 200, 211, 211, 419; livestock-pro-duction, 22; problems summary, 3; property inheritance and, 35; rights/access, 35, 200,

200, 210–211, 210, 211; trends in labor force, 7–8, 46, 47, 210–211, 210, 293; ur-ban/peri-urban agriculture, 23

Woodfuels. See Fuelwood

World Bank: assessments of sustainability, 30; CGIAR and, 83; components, 84; overview, 84–86; pest management/IPM, 103, 105; role, 84–86; RuralStruc project, 214; T & V approach, 65. See also Structural adjust-ment policies

World Health Organization and pesticides, 103, 105, 106

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), 89, 91, 476, 477

World Learning for International Development, 78

World Summit on Sustainable Development (2002), 49

World Trade Organization (WTO): food safety, 219–220, 219; food trade, 109; functions, 219, 219; IPR, 218, 476, 477; origins, 219,

219; policies, 215, 215, 219, 219

World Wildlife Fund (WWF), 87

Y

“Yield gap”: agroforestry and, 147; closing,

382–383; failure of addressing, 223; Green Revolution, 223

Yield per unit area per year assessment, 157– 158, 157

Crossroads

Crossroads

Crossroads

SCIENCE | AGRICULTURE | CURRENT AFFAIRS

“Although considered by many to be a success story, the benei ts of productivity increases in

world agriculture are unevenly spread. Often the poorest of the poor have gained little or

noth-ing; and 850 million people are still hungry or malnourished with an additional 4 million more

joining their ranks annually. We are putting food that appears cheap on our tables; but it is

food that is not always healthy and that costs us dearly in terms of water, soil and the biological

diversity on which all our futures depend.”

—Professor Bob Watson, director, IAASTD

The International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for

Devel-opment (IAASTD) , on which

Agriculture at the Crossroads

is based, was a three-year

collab-orative effort begun in 2005 that assessed our capacity to meet development and

sustainabil-ity goals of:

• Reducing hunger and poverty

• Improving nutrition, health and rural livelihoods

• Facilitating social and environmental sustainability

Governed by a multi-stakeholder bureau comprised of 30 representatives from government

and 30 from civil society, the process brought together 110 governments and 400 experts,

rep-resenting non-governmental organizations (NGOs), the private sector, producers, consumers,

the scientii c community, multilateral environment agreements (MEAs), and multiple

interna-tional agencies involved in the agricultural and rural development sectors.

In addition to assessing existing conditions and knowledge, the IAASTD uses a simple set of

model projections to look at the future, based on knowledge from past events and existing

trends such as population growth, rural/urban food and poverty dynamics, loss of agricultural

land, water availability, and climate change effects.

This set of volumes comprises the i ndings of the IAASTD. It consists of a

Global Report

, a

brief

Synthesis Report

, and 5 subglobal reports. Taken as a whole, the IAASTD reports are an

indispensable reference for anyone working in the i eld of agriculture and rural development,

whether at the level of basic research, policy, or practice.

Washington • Covelo • London www.islandpress.org

All Island Press books are printed on recycled, acid-free paper.

Cover design by Linda McKnight, McKnight Design, LLC Cover photos (left to right): Steve Raymer, Dean Conger, and William Albert Allard of National Geographic Stock, Mark Edwards (both images) of Peter Arnold, Inc.