Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi Ketersediaan dan Konsumsi Kedelai di Sumatera Utara
65
Lampiran 1
Ketersediaan Kedelai di Sumatera Utara tahun 1998-2013
Tahun
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Ketersediaan
(Ton)
54.770
54.065
21.583
13.479
11.119
49.287
24.608
61.545
41.487
62.942
77.096
85.842
92.697
117.796
115.495
119.394
Luas Panen
(Ha)
42.242
27.171
12.113
10.003
9.705
9.910
11.706
13.787
6.311
3.747
9.597
11.494
7.803
11.413
5.475
3.126
Tenaga Kerja
(Jiwa)
2.608.706
2.679.078
2.650.396
2.749.214
2.738.193
4.421.093
4.126.453
4.249.699
4.074.774
3.987.998
4.203.091
4.255.602
4.468.816
3.845.341
3.834.093
3.880.703
Pendapatan
(juta/kap/th)
4.361.485
5.476.169
5.928.518
6.741.914
7.482.946
8.672.097
9.741.566
11.326.516
12.684.532
14.166.626
16.813.290
18.381.013
21.236.780
23.778.381
26.184.746
29.722.268
Nilai Tukar
(Rp/$)
11.750
7.100
9.725
10.265
9.260
8.570
8.985
9.705
9.200
9.125
9.666
9.447
9.036
9.113
9.718
12.250
Konsumsi Kedelai di Sumatera Utara tahun 1998-2013
Tahun
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Konsumsi
Harga Kedelai
Jumlah
Jumlah Industri Pendapatan
Kedelai (ton)
Impor (Rp/ton) Penduduk (Jiwa)
(Unit)
(Juta/Kap/th)
403
31.955
5.604.727
11.754.100
4.361.485
396
32.179
1.383.657
11.955.400
5.476.169
402
34.857
9.058.959
11.513.973
5.928.518
385
40.088
2.144.949
11.247.958
6.741.914
387
44.016
2.376.306
11.383.503
7.482.946
378
31.199
2.200.513
11.591.182
8.672.097
384
41.412
3.349.364
12.160.536
9.741.566
398
55.200
2.777.740
12.326.678
11.326.516
521
56.580
2.468.816
12.643.494
12.684.532
525
56.580
3.031.310
12.834.371
14.166.626
512
57.314
5.233.083
13.042.317
16.813.290
458
58.111
4.374.414
13.248.386
18.381.013
469
56.613
4.204.958
12.982.204
21.236.780
460
59.993
5.200.902
13.103.596
23.778.381
457
60.512
5.732.582
13.215.401
26.184.746
413
61.316
7.492.145
13.326.307
29.722.268
Sumber: diolah dari data sekunder,2015
Nilai Tukar
(Rp/$)
11.750
7.100
9.725
10.265
9.260
8.570
8.985
9.705
9.200
9.125
9.666
9.447
9.036
9.113
9.718
12.250
Universitas Sumatera Utara
66
Lampiran 2. Hasil Analisis Regresi Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi
Ketersediaan Kedelai di Sumatera Utara th 1998-2013
Regression
Variables Entered/Removedb
Variables
Entered
Model
1
Variables
Removed
Nilai Tukar,
Luas Panen,
Tenaga Kerja,
Pendapatana
Method
. Enter
a. All requested variables entered.
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan
Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
1
R
Adjusted R
Square
Square
R
.976a
.952
.935
Std. Error of
the Estimate
R Square
Change
9247.65680
F Change
.952
54.762
df1
df2
4
11
Sig. F
Change
.000
a. Predictors: (Constant), Nilai Tukar, Luas Panen, Tenaga Kerja,
Pendapatan
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan
ANOVAb
Sum of
Squares
Model
1
Regression
Residual
Total
df
Mean Square
1.873E10
4
4.683E9
9.407E8
11
8.552E7
1.967E10
15
F
54.762
Sig.
.000a
a. Predictors: (Constant), Nilai Tukar, Luas Panen, Tenaga Kerja, Pendapatan
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan
Universitas Sumatera Utara
DurbinWatson
3.189
67
Coefficientsa
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Model
1
B
Standardized
Coefficients
Std. Error
Collinearity
Statistics
Correlations
Beta
t
(Constant) -13137.516 28790.512
Sig.
-.456
.657
Zeroorder Partial
Part
Toler
ance
VIF
Luas
Panen
1.885
.321
.504
5.863
.000 -.201
.870
.387 .588 1.700
Tenaga
Kerja
.005
.005
.095
1.069
.308 .494
.307
.070 .548 1.826
Pendapata
n
.005
.000
1.156
11.969
.000 .895
.964
.789 .466 2.147
-3.992
2.297
-.130
-1.738
.110 .218
-.464
-.115 .777 1.288
Nilai
Tukar
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan
Collinearity Diagnosticsa
Dimen
Model sion
1
Eigenvalue
Condition
Index
Variance Proportions
(Constant)
Luas Panen
Tenaga Kerja
Pendapatan
Nilai Tukar
1
4.406
1.000
.00
.01
.00
.00
.00
2
.494
2.987
.00
.30
.00
.07
.00
3
.076
7.611
.01
.46
.03
.73
.01
4
.020
14.822
.01
.23
.47
.00
.25
5
.004
33.101
.98
.01
.50
.20
.75
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan
Universitas Sumatera Utara
68
Chart
Universitas Sumatera Utara
69
Lampiran 3. Hasil Analisis Regresi Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi
Konsumsi Kedelai di Sumatera Utara th 1998-2013
Regression
Variables Entered/Removedb
Variables
Entered
Model
1
Variables
Removed
Nilai Tukar,
Jumlah
Industri,
Pendapatan,
Harga Kedelai
Impor, Jumlah
Penduduka
Method
. Enter
a. All requested variables entered.
b. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi
Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
R
1
.932a
Adjusted
R Square R Square
.868
.802
Std. Error of
the Estimate
R Square
Change
5157.16900
.868
F Change
df1
13.178
df2
5
Sig. F DurbinChange Watson
10
.000
a. Predictors: (Constant), Nilai Tukar, Jumlah Industri, Pendapatan, Harga Kedelai Impor,
Jumlah Penduduk
b. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi
ANOVAb
Sum of
Squares
Model
1
df
Mean Square
Regression
1.752E9
5
3.505E8
Residual
2.660E8
10
2.660E7
Total
2.018E9
15
F
Sig.
13.178
.000a
a. Predictors: (Constant), Nilai Tukar, Jumlah Industri, Pendapatan, Harga Kedelai
Impor, Jumlah Penduduk
b. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi
Universitas Sumatera Utara
1.954
70
Coefficientsa
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Standardized
Coefficients
Std. Error
Beta
Collinearity
Statistics
Correlations
t
Zeroorder Partial
Sig.
Part
Tolera
nce
VIF
-38383.848
56505.796
-.679
.512
-.001
.001
-.208 -1.393
.194
.197
-.403
-.160
.592 1.690
.003
.006
.485
.638
.880
.152
.056
.105 9.523
73.268
40.552
.328 1.807
.101
.689
.496
.207
.401 2.495
Pendapatan
.001
.000
.590 1.973
.077
.851
.529
.226
.147 6.785
Nilai Tukar
1.528
1.439
.155 1.062
.313
.193
.318
.122
.616 1.625
Harga
Kedelai
Impor
Jumlah
Penduduk
Jumlah
Industri
.172
a. Dependent Variable:
Konsumsi
Collinearity Diagnosticsa
Variance Proportions
Dimens
Model ion
Eigenvalue Condition Index (Constant)
1
Harga
Kedelai Jumlah
Impor Penduduk
Jumlah
Industri
Pendap Nilai
atan Tukar
1
5.670
1.000
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
2
.185
5.538
.00
.11
.00
.00
.10
.00
3
.130
6.604
.00
.58
.00
.00
.08
.00
4
.011
22.319
.00
.23
.00
.20
.02
.41
5
.004
38.949
.04
.08
.01
.42
.01
.53
6
.000
164.173
.96
.00
.99
.38
.79
.06
a. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi
Universitas Sumatera Utara
71
Chart
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1
Ketersediaan Kedelai di Sumatera Utara tahun 1998-2013
Tahun
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Ketersediaan
(Ton)
54.770
54.065
21.583
13.479
11.119
49.287
24.608
61.545
41.487
62.942
77.096
85.842
92.697
117.796
115.495
119.394
Luas Panen
(Ha)
42.242
27.171
12.113
10.003
9.705
9.910
11.706
13.787
6.311
3.747
9.597
11.494
7.803
11.413
5.475
3.126
Tenaga Kerja
(Jiwa)
2.608.706
2.679.078
2.650.396
2.749.214
2.738.193
4.421.093
4.126.453
4.249.699
4.074.774
3.987.998
4.203.091
4.255.602
4.468.816
3.845.341
3.834.093
3.880.703
Pendapatan
(juta/kap/th)
4.361.485
5.476.169
5.928.518
6.741.914
7.482.946
8.672.097
9.741.566
11.326.516
12.684.532
14.166.626
16.813.290
18.381.013
21.236.780
23.778.381
26.184.746
29.722.268
Nilai Tukar
(Rp/$)
11.750
7.100
9.725
10.265
9.260
8.570
8.985
9.705
9.200
9.125
9.666
9.447
9.036
9.113
9.718
12.250
Konsumsi Kedelai di Sumatera Utara tahun 1998-2013
Tahun
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Konsumsi
Harga Kedelai
Jumlah
Jumlah Industri Pendapatan
Kedelai (ton)
Impor (Rp/ton) Penduduk (Jiwa)
(Unit)
(Juta/Kap/th)
403
31.955
5.604.727
11.754.100
4.361.485
396
32.179
1.383.657
11.955.400
5.476.169
402
34.857
9.058.959
11.513.973
5.928.518
385
40.088
2.144.949
11.247.958
6.741.914
387
44.016
2.376.306
11.383.503
7.482.946
378
31.199
2.200.513
11.591.182
8.672.097
384
41.412
3.349.364
12.160.536
9.741.566
398
55.200
2.777.740
12.326.678
11.326.516
521
56.580
2.468.816
12.643.494
12.684.532
525
56.580
3.031.310
12.834.371
14.166.626
512
57.314
5.233.083
13.042.317
16.813.290
458
58.111
4.374.414
13.248.386
18.381.013
469
56.613
4.204.958
12.982.204
21.236.780
460
59.993
5.200.902
13.103.596
23.778.381
457
60.512
5.732.582
13.215.401
26.184.746
413
61.316
7.492.145
13.326.307
29.722.268
Sumber: diolah dari data sekunder,2015
Nilai Tukar
(Rp/$)
11.750
7.100
9.725
10.265
9.260
8.570
8.985
9.705
9.200
9.125
9.666
9.447
9.036
9.113
9.718
12.250
Universitas Sumatera Utara
66
Lampiran 2. Hasil Analisis Regresi Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi
Ketersediaan Kedelai di Sumatera Utara th 1998-2013
Regression
Variables Entered/Removedb
Variables
Entered
Model
1
Variables
Removed
Nilai Tukar,
Luas Panen,
Tenaga Kerja,
Pendapatana
Method
. Enter
a. All requested variables entered.
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan
Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
1
R
Adjusted R
Square
Square
R
.976a
.952
.935
Std. Error of
the Estimate
R Square
Change
9247.65680
F Change
.952
54.762
df1
df2
4
11
Sig. F
Change
.000
a. Predictors: (Constant), Nilai Tukar, Luas Panen, Tenaga Kerja,
Pendapatan
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan
ANOVAb
Sum of
Squares
Model
1
Regression
Residual
Total
df
Mean Square
1.873E10
4
4.683E9
9.407E8
11
8.552E7
1.967E10
15
F
54.762
Sig.
.000a
a. Predictors: (Constant), Nilai Tukar, Luas Panen, Tenaga Kerja, Pendapatan
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan
Universitas Sumatera Utara
DurbinWatson
3.189
67
Coefficientsa
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Model
1
B
Standardized
Coefficients
Std. Error
Collinearity
Statistics
Correlations
Beta
t
(Constant) -13137.516 28790.512
Sig.
-.456
.657
Zeroorder Partial
Part
Toler
ance
VIF
Luas
Panen
1.885
.321
.504
5.863
.000 -.201
.870
.387 .588 1.700
Tenaga
Kerja
.005
.005
.095
1.069
.308 .494
.307
.070 .548 1.826
Pendapata
n
.005
.000
1.156
11.969
.000 .895
.964
.789 .466 2.147
-3.992
2.297
-.130
-1.738
.110 .218
-.464
-.115 .777 1.288
Nilai
Tukar
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan
Collinearity Diagnosticsa
Dimen
Model sion
1
Eigenvalue
Condition
Index
Variance Proportions
(Constant)
Luas Panen
Tenaga Kerja
Pendapatan
Nilai Tukar
1
4.406
1.000
.00
.01
.00
.00
.00
2
.494
2.987
.00
.30
.00
.07
.00
3
.076
7.611
.01
.46
.03
.73
.01
4
.020
14.822
.01
.23
.47
.00
.25
5
.004
33.101
.98
.01
.50
.20
.75
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan
Universitas Sumatera Utara
68
Chart
Universitas Sumatera Utara
69
Lampiran 3. Hasil Analisis Regresi Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi
Konsumsi Kedelai di Sumatera Utara th 1998-2013
Regression
Variables Entered/Removedb
Variables
Entered
Model
1
Variables
Removed
Nilai Tukar,
Jumlah
Industri,
Pendapatan,
Harga Kedelai
Impor, Jumlah
Penduduka
Method
. Enter
a. All requested variables entered.
b. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi
Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
R
1
.932a
Adjusted
R Square R Square
.868
.802
Std. Error of
the Estimate
R Square
Change
5157.16900
.868
F Change
df1
13.178
df2
5
Sig. F DurbinChange Watson
10
.000
a. Predictors: (Constant), Nilai Tukar, Jumlah Industri, Pendapatan, Harga Kedelai Impor,
Jumlah Penduduk
b. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi
ANOVAb
Sum of
Squares
Model
1
df
Mean Square
Regression
1.752E9
5
3.505E8
Residual
2.660E8
10
2.660E7
Total
2.018E9
15
F
Sig.
13.178
.000a
a. Predictors: (Constant), Nilai Tukar, Jumlah Industri, Pendapatan, Harga Kedelai
Impor, Jumlah Penduduk
b. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi
Universitas Sumatera Utara
1.954
70
Coefficientsa
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Standardized
Coefficients
Std. Error
Beta
Collinearity
Statistics
Correlations
t
Zeroorder Partial
Sig.
Part
Tolera
nce
VIF
-38383.848
56505.796
-.679
.512
-.001
.001
-.208 -1.393
.194
.197
-.403
-.160
.592 1.690
.003
.006
.485
.638
.880
.152
.056
.105 9.523
73.268
40.552
.328 1.807
.101
.689
.496
.207
.401 2.495
Pendapatan
.001
.000
.590 1.973
.077
.851
.529
.226
.147 6.785
Nilai Tukar
1.528
1.439
.155 1.062
.313
.193
.318
.122
.616 1.625
Harga
Kedelai
Impor
Jumlah
Penduduk
Jumlah
Industri
.172
a. Dependent Variable:
Konsumsi
Collinearity Diagnosticsa
Variance Proportions
Dimens
Model ion
Eigenvalue Condition Index (Constant)
1
Harga
Kedelai Jumlah
Impor Penduduk
Jumlah
Industri
Pendap Nilai
atan Tukar
1
5.670
1.000
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
2
.185
5.538
.00
.11
.00
.00
.10
.00
3
.130
6.604
.00
.58
.00
.00
.08
.00
4
.011
22.319
.00
.23
.00
.20
.02
.41
5
.004
38.949
.04
.08
.01
.42
.01
.53
6
.000
164.173
.96
.00
.99
.38
.79
.06
a. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi
Universitas Sumatera Utara
71
Chart
Universitas Sumatera Utara