6.60 TAHUN 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 BULAN JANUARI 1.14 -0.15 1.40 1.97 1.74 1.39 FEBRUARI 0.38 -0.24 0.27 -0.47 -0.81 0.78 MARET 0.92 -0.35 -0.64 -1.03 -0.27 0.34 APRIL 0.21 -0.44 0.03 -0.83 0.23 0.70 MEI 1.57 0.26 0.28 -0.23 0.05 0.28 JUNI 2.18 1.90
LAMPIRAN I Data Inflasi Bulanan Provinsi Sumatera Utara Menggunakan Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) Provinsi Sumatera Utara Periode Januari 2002 - Desember 2013
0.28 JUNI
0.93
2.00
1.15
1.35
1.28 JULI
1.23
0.99
1.90
2.18
0.05
2.72 AGUSTUS -0.3 0.93 -0.36
0.26 0.28 -0.23
1.57
0.70 MEI
0.23
0.34 APRIL 0.21 -0.44 0.03 -0.83
0.78 MARET 0.92 -0.35 -0.64 -1.03 -0.27
1.39 FEBRUARI 0.38 -0.24 0.27 -0.47 -0.81
1.74
1.97
1.40
0.67
1.12
6.11
1.70
10.18 Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sumatera Utara
3.86
3.67
8.00
2.61
10.72
0.02 TAHUNAN
0.56
0.53
0.52
0.13
0.57
0.68 DESEMBER
0.94 0.08 -0.03
0.94 OKTOBER 0.36 -0.52
0.35
0.24 0.38 -0.65
1.19
0.10 NOVEMBER
0.25 1.20 -0.14 1.25 -0.03
0.52 SEPTEMBER
6.60 TAHUN 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 BULAN JANUARI 1.14 -0.15
TAHUN 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 BULAN JANUARI
3.29
0.07
1.02
0.22
0.87
0.82 JULI
0.18
0.59
1.22
0.22 0.63 -0.3 JUNI 0.11 -0.22
0.32
1.29
0.68
0.95 1.03 -0.47 -1.1 MEI
0.22 APRIL -0.26 -0.25
0.46
1.58
0.84
0.47 MARET -0.55 -0.93
0.81
1.13 FEBRUARI -0.22 -0.06 0.03 -1.39
0.09 2.82 -0.12
2.02
1.59
0.88 AGUSTUS -0.33 1.10 -0.27 0.83 -0.14
6.80
0.73
4.23
9.59
1.58 TAHUNAN
1.92
1.08 1.41 -0.29
2.25
0.87 DESEMBER
0.58
1.94
1.02
0.31 SEPTEMBER 0.47 -1.01 -0.18
2.25
0.59 OKTOBER
0.95
11.56
0.45
1.17
0.11
0.97 NOVEMBER
0.49
0.46
22.41
LAMPIRAN 2 Data Kelompok Komoditi Penyusun Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) Bulanan Provinsi Sumatera Utara Berdasarkan 7 Kelompok Pengeluaran Periode Januari 2007 – Desember 2012
Periode SUMUT-Bama SUMUT-Mamin SUMUT-Perum SUMUT-Sand 2007/M01 2,55 0,72 2,28 -0,58 2007/M02 0,68 0,69 -0,97 0,73 2007/M03 1,43 0,66 0,51 0,13 2007/M04 -3,90 0,18 0,20 0,42 2007/M05 -1,36 -0,03 -0,89 0,16 2007/M06 2,52 0,55 -0,01 -0,23 2007/M07 1,42 0,73 0,43 0,71 2007/M08 0,23 0,39 0,78 0,58 2007/M09 1,87 0,59 1,21 0,96 2007/M10 0,54 0,49 0,26 1,15 2007/M11 1,68 0,00 0,27 1,72 2007/M12 3,26 0,02 0,43 0,56 2008/M01 2,71 0,44 0,92 1,78 2008/M02 1,82 0,66 0,47 1,35 2008/M03 1,36 1,18 1,01 1,19 2008/M04 -0,28 0,81 0,51 -0,11 2008/M05 2,57 0,51 1,12 -0,16 2008/M06 2,46 0,34 1,55 0,04 2008/M07 1,48 0,22 1,95 1,02 2008/M08 -0,77 1,14 0,45 -0,62 2008/M09 0,84 1,53 1,20 0,31 2008/M10 0,39 0,96 0,75 1,28 2008/M11 1,58 -0,01 0,25 0,50 2008/M12 3,74 0,69 0,06 1,06 2009/M01 0,43 0,33 0,07 1,02 2009/M02 -1,36 1,93 0,19 3,20 2009/M03 -2,58 0,43 0,13 1,93 2009/M04 -1,54 1,07 -0,39 -1,41 2009/M05 0,18 0,69 0,52 -1,06 2009/M06 -0,70 0,90 0,20 -0,07 2009/M07 1,83 0,39 1,80 0,11 2009/M08 2,35 0,36 -1,24 -0,27 2009/M09 3,11 0,96 0,32 1,18 2009/M10 0,85 0,65 0,14 0,52 2009/M11 -1,64 0,52 0,15 0,63 2009/M12 -2,09 0,63 0,75 1,36 2010/M01 2,60 2,65 0,73 0,02 2010/M02 -0,37 0,86 0,34 -0,49 2010/M03 -2,50 0,48 -0,14 0,33 2010/M04 0,98 0,23 0,00 0,84 2010/M05 -0,16 0,91 0,05 1,29 2010/M06 5,48 0,14 0,27 0,60 2010/M07 5,79 0,24 0,46 0,57 2010/M08 -2,67 0,37 0,99 0,09 2010/M09 -1,23 0,34 0,17 1,20 2010/M10 -0,79 1,17 0,79 1,23 2010/M11 4,07 0,45 0,10 1,13 2010/M12 6,48 0,81 0,71 1,16 2011/M01 5,93 1,15 0,93 0,46 2011/M02 -0,77 0,08 0,48 0,16
2011/M03 -4,75 0,37 0,40 0,29 2011/M04 -4,30 0,17 0,13 0,76 2011/M05 -1,64 0,75 0,13 1,26 2011/M06 1,55 0,44 0,46 0,83 2011/M07 1,63 1,04 0,15 0,35 2011/M08 1,04 0,89 0,18 3,26 2011/M09 2,35 0,41 0,17 1,89 2011/M10 0,09 0,15 0,52 -0,11 2011/M11 -0,63 0,83 0,50 0,30 2011/M12 2,39 0,32 0,18 1,48 2012/M01 4,59 1,02 0,89 -0,46 2012/M02 -3,28 0,23 0,28 1,12 2012/M03 -1,35 0,13 0,31 0,31 2012/M04 0,56 0,63 0,31 -0,25 2012/M05 -0,84 0,37 0,58 -0,01 2012/M06 4,00 1,13 0,53 0,13 2012/M07 0,17 0,30 0,17 0,15 2012/M08 0,24 0,73 0,41 1,56 2012/M09 -2,11 1,10 0,13 1,20 2012/M10 -0,37 0,08 0,09 1,01 2012/M11 -0,99 0,08 0,15 -0,20 2012/M12 2,09 0,23 0,30 0,03 Periode SUMUT-Kes SUMUT-Pendik SUMUT-Trans 2007/M01 0,21 -0,01 0,05 2007/M02 0,09 0,06 -0,01 2007/M03 0,07 0,11 0,09 2007/M04 0,34 0,05 0,17 2007/M05 0,24 0,08 0,02 2007/M06 0,18 0,25 0,08 2007/M07 0,08 4,72 0,00 2007/M08 0,11 4,68 0,05 2007/M09 0,11 0,55 -0,01 2007/M10 0,06 0,14 0,21 2007/M11 0,10 1,23 0,11 2007/M12 0,33 0,00 0,11 2008/M01 0,25 0,20 0,17 2008/M02 1,11 0,09 0,09 2008/M03 0,46 0,00 0,06 2008/M04 1,45 0,12 -0,72 2008/M05 0,15 0,71 1,72 2008/M06 0,75 0,68 8,50 2008/M07 0,29 3,05 0,72 2008/M08 0,45 0,91 -0,42 2008/M09 0,60 0,39 0,06 2008/M10 0,24 0,05 0,00 2008/M11 0,03 0,30 -0,12 2008/M12 0,11 0,14 -2,30 2009/M01 0,15 -0,02 -2,00 2009/M02 0,51 -0,03 -0,53 2009/M03 0,04 0,08 -0,77 2009/M04 0,06 -0,24 -0,03 2009/M05 0,34 0,12 0,01 2009/M06 0,23 0,21 -0,04 2009/M07 0,33 2,88 0,81 2009/M08 -0,03 2,34 -0,28 2009/M09 0,64 1,05 -0,04 2009/M10 0,24 -0,01 -0,57 2009/M11 -0,07 0,00 -0,28
2009/M12 0,13 -0,09 0,26 2010/M01 0,15 0,14 0,34 2010/M02 0,39 0,25 0,20 2010/M03 0,28 0,01 -0,17 2010/M04 0,70 0,00 0,29 2010/M05 -0,03 0,00 0,05 2010/M06 0,15 0,07 0,36 2010/M07 0,45 1,07 0,04 2010/M08 0,03 1,02 0,25 2010/M09 0,25 0,87 0,61 2010/M10 0,04 0,43 -0,96 2010/M11 0,01 0,49 -0,22 2010/M12 0,22 0,14 0,22 2011/M01 0,93 0,05 0,57 2011/M02 0,33 0,31 -0,38 2011/M03 0,18 0,13 -0,38 2011/M04 0,43 0,09 -0,03 2011/M05 0,53 0,02 0,26 2011/M06 -0,15 0,02 0,33 2011/M07 0,62 0,90 0,58 2011/M08 0,25 0,86 0,23 2011/M09 0,47 0,77 0,40 2011/M10 0,39 0,90 -1,22 2011/M11 0,25 0,06 0,31 2011/M12 -0,24 -0,07 -0,07 2012/M01 0,48 0,07 1,22 2012/M02 0,43 0,54 -0,15 2012/M03 0,44 0,09 0,12 2012/M04 0,28 0,01 0,31 2012/M05 0,10 0,08 0,14 2012/M06 0,24 0,03 -0,06 2012/M07 -0,44 1,40 1,00 2012/M08 0,42 1,05 0,22 2012/M09 0,48 1,27 -0,31 2012/M10 0,41 1,05 0,11 2012/M11 0,36 0,06 0,27 2012/M12 0,26 -0,30 -0,13
Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Sumatera Utara
LAMPIRAN 3 HASIL OUTPUT UJI PENYIMPANGAN ASUMSI KLASIK
Hasil Output Uji Autokorelasi Durbin Waston Test
Dependent Variable: INFLASI Method: Least Squares Date: 10/05/14 Time: 14:13 Sample: 2002M01 2013M12 Included observations: 144 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.742361 0.163222 4.548162 0.0000 TPID -0.111944 0.230831 -0.484963 0.6285
R-squared 0.001654 Mean dependent var 0.686389 Adjusted R-squared -0.005377 S.D. dependent var 1.381278 S.E. of regression 1.384986 Akaike info criterion 3.503049 Sum squared resid 272.3826 Schwarz criterion 3.544297 Log likelihood -250.2195 F-statistic 0.235189
Durbin-Watson stat 1.642706 Prob(F-statistic) 0.628450 Hasil Output Uji langrange Multiple Test (LM-Test)
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 3.131058 Probability 0.046745 Obs*R-squared 6.165265 Probability 0.045838 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 10/05/14 Time: 14:44 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.000514 0.160832 0.003198 0.9975 TPID -0.001520 0.227456 -0.006681 0.9947
RESID(-1) 0.187451 0.083862 2.235225 0.0270 RESID(-2) -0.124296 0.083877 -1.481880 0.1406
R-squared 0.042814 Mean dependent var -2.01E-17 Adjusted R-squared 0.022303 S.D. dependent var 1.380135 S.E. of regression 1.364658 Akaike info criterion 3.487069 Sum squared resid 260.7207 Schwarz criterion 3.569564 Log likelihood -247.0690 F-statistic 2.087372 Durbin-Watson stat 1.992712 Prob(F-statistic) 0.104635
Hasil Output Pengobatan Uji Autokorelasi Durbin Waston Test First Difference
Dependent Variable: D(INFLASI) Method: Least Squares Date: 10/05/14 Time: 15:03 Sample (adjusted): 2002M02 2013M12 Included observations: 143 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(TPID) -0.440000 1.774897 -0.247902 0.8046 R-squared 0.000326 Mean dependent var -0.018252 Adjusted R-squared 0.000326 S.D. dependent var 1.775187 S.E. of regression 1.774897 Akaike info criterion 3.992330 Sum squared resid 447.3369 Schwarz criterion 4.013050 Log likelihood -284.4516 Durbin-Watson stat 2.630904
Hasil Output Pengobatan Uji Autokorelasi Durbin Watson Test Dengan Model AR
Dependent Variable: INFLASI Method: Least Squares Date: 10/05/14 Time: 23:02 Sample (adjusted): 2002M02 2013M12 Included observations: 143 after adjustments Convergence achieved after 3 iterations Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.700431 0.193382 3.622000 0.0004 TPID -0.071104 0.271680 -0.261718 0.7939
AR(1) 0.166669 0.082283 2.025564 0.0447 R-squared 0.529225 Mean dependent var 0.668182 Adjusted R-squared 0.515357 S.D. dependent var 1.368683 S.E. of regression 1.358133 Akaike info criterion 3.470855 Sum squared resid 258.2335 Schwarz criterion 3.533012 Log likelihood -245.1661 F-statistic 2.107324 Durbin-Watson stat 1.923369 Prob(F-statistic) 0.125403 Inverted AR Roots .17
Hasil Output Pengobatan Autokorelasi Uji LM Test Dengan Model AR
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 1.647263 Probability 0.196340 Obs*R-squared 3.334291 Probability 0.188785 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 10/06/14 Time: 02:10 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.033188 0.194317 0.170795 0.8646 TPID -0.032249 0.271719 -0.118684 0.9057
AR(1) -0.660402 0.512422 -1.288785 0.1996 RESID(-1) 0.694982 0.516433 1.345736 0.1806 RESID(-2) 0.008483 0.120078 0.070649 0.9438
R-squared 0.023317 Mean dependent var -7.38E-13 Adjusted R-squared -0.004993 S.D. dependent var 1.348535 S.E. of regression 1.351897 Akaike info criterion 3.475234 Sum squared resid 252.2123 Schwarz criterion 3.578830 Log likelihood -243.4792 F-statistic 0.823631 Durbin-Watson stat 2.025607 Prob(F-statistic) 0.512222
LAMPIRAN 4 HASIL OUTPUT UJI KESESUAIAN ( Test Goodness of fit )
2 Hasil Output Koefisien Determinasi ( R ) dan Hasil Uji t-Statistik (Uji Parsial)
Dependent Variable: INFLASI Method: Least Squares Date: 10/05/14 Time: 23:02 Sample (adjusted): 2002M02 2013M12 Included observations: 143 after adjustments Convergence achieved after 3 iterations Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
C 0.700431 0.193382 3.622000 0.0004 TPID -0.071104 0.271680 -0.261718 0.7939
AR(1) 0.166669 0.082283 2.025564 0.0447 R-squared 0.529225 Mean dependent var 0.668182 Adjusted R-squared 0.515357 S.D. dependent var 1.368683 S.E. of regression 1.358133 Akaike info criterion 3.470855 Sum squared resid 258.2335 Schwarz criterion 3.533012 Log likelihood -245.1661 F-statistic 2.107324 Durbin-Watson stat 1.923369 Prob(F-statistic) 0.125403 Inverted AR Roots .17
LAMPIRAN 5
Hasil Output Model Autoregressive Untuk Mengukur Tingkat Persistensi
InflasiHasil Pengukuran Persistensi Provinsi Sumatera Utara dan Hasil Pengujian Sumber Persistensi Provinsi Sumatera Utara
Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 07:44 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after Adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
PERSISTENSI_IN FLASI
PERSISTENSI_INFLASI(-1) 0.264973 (0.10276)
[ 2.57861] PERSISTENSI_INFLASI(-2) -0.027365
(0.10640) [-0.25719]
C -0.113143 (0.24174) [-0.46803]
BAMA_SUMUT 0.261727 (0.05044)
[ 5.18903] MAMIN_SUMUT 0.091307
(0.25579) [ 0.35697]
PERUM_SUMUT 0.198871
(0.26513) [ 0.75010]
SAND_SUMUT 0.075231 (0.13458)
[ 0.55901] KES_SUMUT 0.509135
(0.40351) [ 1.26176]
PENDIK_SUMUT 0.041862 (0.12006)
[ 0.34869] TRANS_SUMUT 0.100577
(0.10665) [ 0.94308]
R-squared 0.496473 Adj. R-squared 0.420944 Sum sq. resids 49.40715 S.E. equation 0.907443 F-statistic 6.573276 Log likelihood -87.13169 Akaike AIC 2.775191 Schwarz SC 3.096405 Mean dependent 0.570571 S.D. dependent 1.192502
Hasil Persistensi Inflasi Provinsi Sumatera Utara Kelompok Komoditi Kelompok Bahan Makanan (BAMA)
Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 07:57 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
BAMA_SUMUT BAMA_SUMUT(-1) 0.428731
(0.11633) [ 3.68539]
BAMA_SUMUT(-2) -0.320923 (0.11624) [-2.76096]
C 0.626493 (0.27755)
[ 2.25726] R-squared 0.195412 Adj. R-squared 0.171394 Sum sq. resids 321.0311 S.E. equation 2.188952 F-statistic 8.136205 Log likelihood -152.6322 Akaike AIC 4.446634 Schwarz SC 4.542998 Mean dependent 0.681571 S.D. dependent 2.404707
Kelompok Makanan Jadi, Minuman, Rokok dan Tembakau
Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 07:59 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after Adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
MAMIN_SUMUT MAMIN_SUMUT(-1) 0.052515
(0.12257) [ 0.42846]
MAMIN_SUMUT(-2) -0.039091 (0.12372) [-0.31596]
C 0.594893 (0.11894)
[ 5.00150] R-squared 0.004064 Adj. R-squared -0.025665 Sum sq. resids 14.79560 S.E. equation 0.469925 F-statistic 0.136712 Log likelihood -44.92992 Akaike AIC 1.369426 Schwarz SC 1.465790 Mean dependent 0.602714 S.D. dependent 0.464009
Kelompok Perumahan, Air, Listrik, Gas dan Bahan Bakar
Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 07:59 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after Adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
PERUM_SUMUT PERUM_SUMUT(-1) 0.129243
(0.11158) [ 1.15834]
PERUM_SUMUT(-2) 0.207163 (0.10267)
[ 2.01774] C 0.273959
(0.08517) [ 3.21668]
R-squared 0.074215 Adj. R-squared 0.046579 Sum sq. resids 15.79770 S.E. equation 0.485579 F-statistic 2.685493 Log likelihood -47.22362 Akaike AIC 1.434961 Schwarz SC 1.531325 Mean dependent 0.413143 S.D. dependent 0.497299
Kelompok Sandang
Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 08:01 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
SAND_SUMUT SAND_SUMUT(-1) 0.310830
(0.12026) [ 2.58471]
SAND_SUMUT(-2) -0.174107 (0.11926) [-1.45994]
C 0.545622 (0.13365)
[ 4.08260] R-squared 0.099246 Adj. R-squared 0.072357 Sum sq. resids 42.24515 S.E. equation 0.794056 F-statistic 3.691047 Log likelihood -81.65050 Akaike AIC 2.418586 Schwarz SC 2.514950 Mean dependent 0.634714 S.D. dependent 0.824443
Kelompok Kesehatan
Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 08:01 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
KES_SUMUT KES_SUMUT(-1) -0.005638
(0.11844) [-0.04760]
KES_SUMUT(-2) 0.231193 (0.11845)
[ 1.95189] C 0.224194
(0.05867) [ 3.82105]
R-squared 0.053844 Adj. R-squared 0.025600 Sum sq. resids 5.445373 S.E. equation 0.285086 F-statistic 1.906420 Log likelihood -9.945180 Akaike AIC 0.369862 Schwarz SC 0.466226 Mean dependent 0.288143 S.D. dependent 0.288807
Kelompok Pendidikan, Rekreasi dan Olahraga
Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 08:02 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
PENDIK_SUMUT PENDIK_SUMUT(-1) 0.606326
(0.11684) [ 5.18916]
PENDIK_SUMUT(-2) -0.303143 (0.11678) [-2.59594]
C 0.382582 (0.11940)
[ 3.20410] R-squared 0.287039 Adj. R-squared 0.265757 Sum sq. resids 45.60324 S.E. equation 0.825012 F-statistic 13.48716 Log likelihood -84.32762 Akaike AIC 2.495075 Schwarz SC 2.591439 Mean dependent 0.551714 S.D. dependent 0.962810
Kelompok Transportasi, Komunikasi dan Jasa Keuangan
Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 10/08/14 Time: 08:02 Sample (adjusted): 2007M03 2012M12 Included observations: 70 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
TRANS_SUMUT TRANS_SUMUT(-1) 0.285378
(0.12095) [ 2.35953]
TRANS_SUMUT(-2) -0.144046 (0.12095) [-1.19091]
C 0.115593 (0.13741)
[ 0.84123] R-squared 0.081600 Adj. R-squared 0.054185 Sum sq. resids 86.66074 S.E. equation 1.137297 F-statistic 2.976470 Log likelihood -106.7984 Akaike AIC 3.137097 Schwarz SC 3.233461 Mean dependent 0.135429 S.D. dependent 1.169420