Dampak Dinamika Struktur Umur Penduduk Terhadap Pengeluaran Pemerintah Pada Bidang Pendidikan Dan Kesehatan Di Indonesia

  

LAMPIRAN

Lampiran 1. Penduduk Indonesia Menurut Kelompok Umur (x1000)

Kelompok Umur (jiwa) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

  0-4 20958,2 20706,1 20430,7 20159 19890,9 19622 19809,6 05-Sep 23223,1 22758,6 22303,5 21857 21420,2 21001 20459,5 Okt-14 21482,1 21847,3 22218,7 22596 22980,5 23378 23247,8 15-19 18926,9 19297,9 19676,1 20068 20461,1 20859 21537,5

  20-24 16128,3 16437,9 16753,6 17075 17403,1 17746 18248,1 25-29 26667,7 24182,3 21957,5 19911 18055,3 16350 16535,4 30-34 13345,8 13744,8 14155,8 14579 15014,9 15464 15639,2 35-39 11184,2 11705,4 12250,9 12822 13419,2 14046 14412,4 40-44 8081,7 8648,2 9254,5 9903,2 10597,4 11341 11900 45-49 7565,6 7759,3 7957,9 8161,6 8370,6 8587,1 9009,5 50-54 6687,6 6779,9 6873,4 6968,3 7064,5 7164 7321,6 55-59 4831,7 5097,4 5377,8 5673,6 5985,6 6315,7 6419,3 60-64 4526,5 4647,3 4771,4 4898,8 5029,2 5165,3 5240,8 65-69 2749,8 2893,3 3044,4 3203,3 3370,5 3546,8 3698,8 70-74 2029 2171,4 2323,9 2487 2661,6 2848,8 2647,3 75+ 1972,3 1949,2 1926,4 1903,9 1881,6 1858,8 2078,2 Total 190388 190627 191277 192267 193606,4 195293 198205

  Kelompok Umur

(jiwa) 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

  

0-4 19970,4 20138,3 20320,6 20206 20108,3 20181 20240,4

05-Sep 20078,5 19814,6 19610,4 20398 21490 21099 20692

Okt-14 22819,3 22183,1 21505,7 20376 21285,3 21427 21555

15-19 22212,4 22799,3 23171,2 21067 21158,3 21141 21117,5

  

20-24 18813,2 19426,7 20062,9 19175 20228,9 20440 20644

25-29 16715,4 16923,2 17202,4 18560 18938,4 19231 19502,6

30-34 15784,1 15913,2 16039,2 16331 17349,2 17698 17984,5

35-39 14698,2 14920,1 15102 14844 15328,4 15696 16046,7

40-44 12442,6 12953,4 13411,4 12420 13063,9 13509 13931,2

45-49 9488,2 10006,9 10538,2 9616,3 10310,2 10818 11333,6

50-54 7491,9 7693,6 7950,1 7353,9 7833,9 8211,5 8612,3

55-59 6503,1 6579,3 6665,5 5657,1 6090,4 6294,1 6534

60-64 5374,4 5537,2 5691,8 5304,1 5049,8 5098,6 5196,4

65-69 3875,6 4064,7 4275,4 3553,8 3923,3 4039,2 4156,1

70-74 2556,3 2570,1 2678,9 2829,4 2635,2 2669,2 2763,2

75+ 2295,6 2507,1 2707,8 2709,3 3134 3184 3241

Total 201119 204031 206934 200400 207927,5 210736 213551

  Kelompok Umur

(jiwa) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

  

0-4 20298 20349,5 20441,3 20509 20582,1 20652 22678,7

05-Sep 20266,5 19830,1 19927 20011 20100,6 20182 23253,5

Okt-14 21681,6 21801,8 21392,2 20989 20583,9 20182 22671,1

15-19 21093,9 21064,7 21188,5 21319 21457 21591 20880,7

  

20-24 20847,7 21041,5 21020 21000 20982,8 20970 19891,6

25-29 19722,4 19862,4 20087,6 20336 20580,3 20783 21310,4

30-34 18246,1 18502 18844,4 19105 19312,1 19508 19830,7

35-39 16386,2 16720 17053,6 17390 17726,3 18042 18505,1

40-44 14330,7 14717,7 15093,1 15458 15812,9 16165 16524,9

45-49 11837,1 12318,5 12772,6 13211 13630,1 14042 14041

50-54 9040,9 9495,2 9971,3 10466 10971,9 11472 11561,3

55-59 6803,5 7099,5 7436 7799,3 8194,3 8618,3 8448,57

60-64 5322,6 5459,4 5618,4 5818,6 6046,8 6305,6 6058,76

65-69 4285,2 4454,6 4505,1 4553,2 4620,4 4718,2 4694,03

70-74 2913,2 3110,2 3236,2 3381,2 3513,4 3619,2 3456,33

75+ 3306 3377,6 3464 3560 3664,2 3782 3834,59

Total 216382 219205 222051 224905 227779,1 230633 237641

Lampiran 2. Perhitungan Median Age Tahun N/2 - fx fMd (N/2 - fx) fMd x 5 20 + (N/2 - fx) Median Age

  

1990 10576450 0,655769672 23,27884836 23,3

1991 10703376 0,651137614 23,25568807 23,3

1992 11009249,5 0,657128492 23,28564246 23,3

1993 11453154 0,670746297 23,35373148 23,4

1994 12050437 0,692431083 23,46215542 23,5

1995 12787000 0,720568927 23,60284463 23,6

1996 14048100 0,769839052 23,84919526 23,8

1997 15479000 0,822773372 24,11386686 24,1

1998 17080100 0,879207482 24,39603741 24,4

1999 18858850 0,939986243 24,69993122 24,7

2000 18153653,5 0,946759758 24,73379879 24,77

2001 19921850 0,984821221 24,92410611 24,99

2002 1080150 0,056168002 20,28084001 20,3

2003 2526350 0,129539138 20,64769569 20,6

2004 4003100 0,202972255 21,01486127

  21

2005 5514750 0,277647716 21,38823858 21,4

2006 7056650 0,351293833 21,75646917 21,8

2007 8625450 0,424142662 22,12071331 22,1

2008 10183150 0,494800853 22,47400427 22,5

2009 11738950 0,564847829 22,82423914 22,8

2010 9445033 0,443211481 22,2160574 22,2

Lampiran 3. Pengeluaran pemerintah untuk pendidikan, pengeluaran pemerintah untuk Kesehatan, Jumlah Penduduk Pada Kelompok Umur Muda, Jumlah Penduduk Pada Kelompok Umur Pertengahan, Jumlah Penduduk Pada kelompok Umur Tua Tahun Pengeluaran pemerintah untuk pendidikan (Rp Milyar) pengeluaran pemerintah untuk Kesehatan (Rp Milyar) Jumlah Penduduk Pada Kelompok Umur Muda (x1000 jiwa) Jumlah Penduduk Pada Kelompok Umur Pertengahan (x1000 jiwa) Jumlah Penduduk Pada kelompok Umur Tua (x1000 jiwa)

  1990 2065 592 65690,4 117946 6751,1 1991 2503 728 65312,0 118300,5 7014,0 1992 3002 955 64952,8 119028,9 7294,7 1993 3565 840 64612,7 120060,4 7594,2 1994 3061 1031 64291,6 121401,0 7913,7 1995 3359 1052 64000,4 123037,8 8254,4 1996 3970 1365 63516,9 126263,8 8424,3 1997 4677 2097 62868,2 129523,5 8727,5 1998 8368 4205 62136,0 132752,9 9141,9 1999 8381 4787 61436,7 135834,7 9662,1 2000 5397 2309 60979,7 130327,7 9092,6 2001 9701 3771 62883,6 135351,4 9692,5 2002 11307 4908 62707,2 138136,7 9892,4 2003 15058 6594 62487,4 140902,8 10160,3 2004 15339 7290 62246,1 143631,1 10504,4 2005 25987 7038 61981,4 146280,9 10942,4 2006 43287 12730 61760,5 149085,5 11205,3 2007 54067 17467 61508,4 151902,1 11494,4 2008 57960 15986 61266,6 154714,5 11798,0 2009 89918 17302 61016,5 157498,0 12119,4 2010 84068 18002 68603,2 157053,1 11984,9

Lampiran 4. Hasil Regresi Model I Untuk Bidang Pendidikan

  Dependentt Variable: PENDIDIKAN Method: Least Squares Date: 11/30/12 Time: 09:29 Sample: 1990 2010 Included observations: 21 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -124178.6 121427.0 -1.022660 0.3208 PM 4.332869 1.798176 2.409592 0.0276 PP -0.157614 0.109124 -1.444353 0.1668

  PT -11.30400 2.022096 -5.590237 0.0000 R-squared 0.784475 Mean dependentt var 21668.57 Adjusted R-squared 0.746441 S.D. dependentt var 27448.33 S.E. of regression 13821.50 Akaike info criterion 22.07548 Sum squared resid

  3.25E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.27444 Log likelihood -227.7926 F-statistic 20.62574 Durbin-Watson stat 0.579816 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000007

Lampiran 5. Hasil Regresi Model II Untuk Bidang Kesehatan

  Dependentt Variable: KESEHATAN Method: Least Squares Date: 11/30/12 Time: 09:26 Sample: 1990 2010 Included observations: 21 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -72654.82 20224.45 -3.592425 0.0022 PM 0.736547 0.299498 2.459275 0.0249 PP -0.023485 0.018175 -1.292154 0.2136

  PT 3.723897 0.336793 11.05692 0.0000 R-squared 0.882946 Mean dependentt var 6240.429 Adjusted R-squared 0.862290 S.D. dependentt var 6203.447 S.E. of regression 2302.060 Akaike info criterion 18.49064 Sum squared resid 90091131 Schwarz criterion 18.68960 Log likelihood -190.1517 F-statistic 42.74407 Durbin-Watson stat 0.760154 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

  Lampiran 6. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Untuk Model I Dan II

  

a. Jumlah penduduk pada kelompok umur muda (X1) terhadap jumlah

penduduk pada kelompok umur pertengahan (X2) dan jumlah penduduk

pada kelompok umur tua (X3)

  Dependentt Variable: PM Method: Least Squares Date: 12/01/12 Time: 09:58 Sample: 1990 2010 Included observations: 21 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C 66454.18 2827.045 23.50659 0.0000 PP 0.009474 0.014128 0.670553 0.5110 PT -0.475437 0.240199 -1.979346 0.0633

  R-squared 0.188249 Mean dependentt var 63155.16 Adjusted R-squared 0.098054 S.D. dependentt var 1907.641 S.E. of regression 1811.702 Akaike info criterion 17.97348 Sum squared resid 59080745 Schwarz criterion 18.12270 Log likelihood -185.7216 F-statistic 2.087144 Durbin-Watson stat 0.780429 Prob(F-statistic) 0.153040

  

b. Jumlah penduduk pada kelompok umur pertengahan (X2) terhadap

jumlah penduduk pada kelompok umur muda (X1) dan jumlah penduduk

pada kelompok umur tua (X3)

  Dependentt Variable: PP Method: Least Squares Date: 12/01/12 Time: 10:02 Sample: 1990 2010 Included observations: 21 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -58392.88 261914.4 -0.222946 0.8261 PM 2.572469 3.836341 0.670553 0.5110 PT 2.613267 4.323967 0.604368 0.5531

  R-squared 0.031225 Mean dependentt var 128918.3 Adjusted R-squared -0.076417 S.D. dependentt var 28774.49 S.E. of regression 29853.68 Akaike info criterion 23.57757 Sum squared resid

  1.60E+10 Schwarz criterion 23.72679 Log likelihood -244.5645 F-statistic 0.290083 Durbin-Watson stat 2.144875 Prob(F-statistic) 0.751634

  

c. Jumlah penduduk pada kelompok umur tua (X3) terhadap jumlah

penduduk pada kelompok umur muda (X1) dan jumlah penduduk pada

kelompok umur pertengahan (X2)

  Dependentt Variable: PT Method: Least Squares Date: 12/01/12 Time: 10:03 Sample: 1990 2010 Included observations: 21 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C 32271.14 11936.37 2.703598 0.0145 PM -0.375970 0.189947 -1.979346 0.0633 PP 0.007611 0.012593 0.604368 0.5531

  R-squared 0.184519 Mean dependentt var 9507.833 Adjusted R-squared 0.093910 S.D. dependentt var 1692.511 S.E. of regression 1611.080 Akaike info criterion 17.73876 Sum squared resid 46720398 Schwarz criterion 17.88798 Log likelihood -183.2570 F-statistic 2.036436 Durbin-Watson stat 0.149200 Prob(F-statistic) 0.159486

Lampira 7. Hasil Uji Autokorelasi Melalui Uji Langrange Multiplier Model I Untuk Bidang Pendidikan

  Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 2.466985 Probability 0.092304 Obs*R-squared 12.04717 Probability 0.060925 Test Equation: Dependentt Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/12 Time: 19:48 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

  Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -2083.584 130989.6 -0.015906 0.9876 PM -0.035135 1.999612 -0.017571 0.9863 PP 0.088922 0.103475 0.859357 0.4085

  PT -0.826493 1.838577 -0.449529 0.6618 RESID(-1) 0.914049 0.307321 2.974251 0.0126 RESID(-2) -0.360193 0.414155 -0.869705 0.4030 RESID(-3) 0.261633 0.412108 0.634865 0.5385 RESID(-4) -0.241806 0.418693 -0.577526 0.5752 RESID(-5) -0.108854 0.407925 -0.266847 0.7945 RESID(-6) -0.017713 0.338871 -0.052272 0.9592

  R-squared 0.573675 Mean dependentt var

  4.58E-11 Adjusted R-squared 0.224864 S.D. dependentt var 12742.79 S.E. of regression 11218.99 Akaike info criterion 21.79436 Sum squared resid

  1.38E+09 Schwarz criterion 22.29175 Log likelihood -218.8407 F-statistic 1.644656 Durbin-Watson stat 1.853812 Prob(F-statistic) 0.215565

  Lampiran 8. Hasil Uji Autokorelasi Melalui Uji Langrange Multiplier Model

II Untuk Bidang Kesehatan

  Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic 2.194432 Probability 0.131569 Obs*R-squared 13.88282 Probability 0.084871 Test Equation: Dependentt Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/12 Time: 19:52 Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.

  Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -6843.035 44244.74 -0.154663 0.8805 PM 0.198076 0.672187 0.294674 0.7749 PP -0.032140 0.035308 -0.910282 0.3864

  PT -0.189488 0.639938 -0.296104 0.7739 RESID(-1) 0.975640 0.332576 2.933589 0.0167 RESID(-2) -0.923918 0.503918 -1.833467 0.0999 RESID(-3) -0.056231 0.650583 -0.086432 0.9330 RESID(-4) 0.357004 0.671591 0.531580 0.6079 RESID(-5) -1.017397 0.669450 -1.519751 0.1629 RESID(-6) 0.299263 0.778457 0.384431 0.7096 RESID(-7) -0.292611 0.787534 -0.371553 0.7188 RESID(-8) 0.322138 0.802312 0.401512 0.6974 R-squared 0.661087 Mean dependentt var

  1.22E-11 Adjusted R-squared 0.246859 S.D. dependentt var 2122.394 S.E. of regression 1841.892 Akaike info criterion 18.17053 Sum squared resid 30533094 Schwarz criterion 18.76740 Log likelihood -178.7906 F-statistic 1.595950 Durbin-Watson stat 1.669087 Prob(F-statistic) 0.245958

Lampiran 9. Hasil Uji Heterokedastisitas Melalui Uji White Model I Untuk Bidang Pendidikan

  White Heteroskedasticity Test: F-statistic 0.898820 Probability 0.556410 Obs*R-squared 8.899033 Probability 0.446646 Test Equation: Dependentt Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/12 Time: 20:12 Sample: 1990 2010 Included observations: 21 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -1.23E+10

  3.30E+11 -0.037213 0.9710 PM 6968275. 6952692. 1.002241 0.3378

  PM^2 -97.36777 95.02596 -1.024644 0.3275 PM*PP 70.36772 134.0620 0.524889 0.6101 PM*PT -451.7716 1106.577 -0.408261 0.6909

  PP -4794654. 9751846. -0.491666 0.6326 PP^2 -0.074412 1.692238 -0.043972 0.9657

  PP*PT 42.60410 118.8602 0.358439 0.7268 PT 25077701 73067269 0.343214 0.7379

  PT^2 -139.3946 1077.241 -0.129400 0.8994 R-squared 0.423763 Mean dependentt var

  1.55E+08 Adjusted R-squared -0.047703 S.D. dependentt var

  2.05E+08 S.E. of regression

  2.10E+08 Akaike info criterion 41.46762 Sum squared resid

  4.84E+17 Schwarz criterion 41.96501 Log likelihood -425.4100 F-statistic 0.898820 Durbin-Watson stat 2.398711 Prob(F-statistic) 0.556410

Lampiran 10. Hasil Uji Heterokedastisitas Melalui Uji White Model II Untuk Bidang Kesehatan

  White Heteroskedasticity Test: F-statistic 1.377949 Probability 0.303301 Obs*R-squared 11.12886 Probability 0.266980 Test Equation: Dependentt Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 12/02/12 Time: 20:11 Sample: 1990 2010 Included observations: 21 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

  C -3.32E+09

  1.01E+10 -0.327543 0.7494 PM 132765.8 213577.8 0.621627 0.5469

  PM^2 -1.291120 2.919076 -0.442304 0.6668 PM*PP 0.306301 4.118212 0.074377 0.9420 PM*PT -1.276386 33.99262 -0.037549 0.9707

  PP -10744.59 299564.2 -0.035867 0.9720 PP^2 -0.031446 0.051983 -0.604929 0.5575

  PP*PT -0.194748 3.651233 -0.053338 0.9584 PT -16359.30 2244533. -0.007289 0.9943

  PT^2 7.394761 33.09147 0.223464 0.8273 R-squared 0.529945 Mean dependentt var 4290054. Adjusted R-squared 0.145355 S.D. dependentt var 6973614. S.E. of regression 6446896. Akaike info criterion 34.50185 Sum squared resid

  4.57E+14 Schwarz criterion 34.99924 Log likelihood -352.2694 F-statistic 1.377949 Durbin-Watson stat 3.055269 Prob(F-statistic) 0.303301