Faktor – Faktor Ketersediaan Beras di Kabupaten Serdang Bedagai Dengan Menggunakan Analisis Jalur
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1
Data Ketersediaan Beras (Y), Produksi Beras (X1), Kebutuhan Beras (X2),
Luas Lahan (X3) dan Jumlah Penduduk (Y) per bulan pada tahun 2014 dan
2015 di Kabupaten Serdang Berdagai
No
Bulan
Ketersediaan
Beras (ton)
Produksi Beras
(ton)
Kebutuhan
Beras (ton)
Luas Panen
(Ha)
Jumlah
Penduduk (jiwa)
1
Januari 2014
25.992
26.888
6.677
8.945
594.383
2
Februari
20.056
20.747
6.677
6.902
594.383
3
Maret
24.754
25.607
6.677
8.519
594.383
4
April
31.234
32.310
6.677
10.749
594.383
5
Mei
2.575
2.663
6.677
886
594.383
6
Juni
2.589
2.678
6.677
891
594.383
7
Juli
976
1.010
7.745
336
594.383
8
Agustus
24.722
25.574
8.814
8.508
594.383
9
September
33.739
3.901
6.677
11.611
594.383
10
Oktober
8.069
8.347
6.677
2.777
594.383
11
Nopember
9.830
10169
6.744
3.383
594.383
12
Desember
729
754
7.478
251
594.383
13
Januari 2015
6.001
6.697
6.677
2.198
594.383
14
Februari
53.479
59.678
6.677
19.588
594.383
15
Maret
19.199
21.424
6.677
7.032
594.383
16
April
1.723
1.922
6.677
631
594.383
17
Mei
513
573
6.677
188
594.383
18
Juni
792
884
6.677
290
594.383
19
Juli
15.808
17.640
7.745
5.790
594.383
20
Agustus
45.065
50.288
8.814
16.506
594.383
21
September
32.315
36.060
6.677
11.836
594.383
Universitas Sumatera Utara
22
Oktober
23
24
2.968
3.312
6.677
1.087
594.383
Nopember
658
734
6.744
241
594.383
Desember
9.569
10.679
7.478
3.505
594.383
Sumber ; Badan Ketahanan Pangan Provinsi Sumatera Utara
X₅X₂
X₅X₁
X₅X₃
X₅X₄
698872896
173548584
232498440
15449202936
416101832
133913912
138426512
11920945448
633875678
165282458
210879326
14713356782
1009170540
208549418
335734266
18564958622
6857225
17193275
2281450
1530536225
6933342
17286753
2306799
1538857587
985760
7559120
327936
580117808
632240428
217899708
210334776
14694336526
131615839
225275303
391743529
20053888037
67351943
53876713
22407613
4796076427
99961270
66293520
33254890
5842784890
549666
5451462
182979
433305207
40188697
40068677
13190198
3566892383
3191519762
357079283
1047546652
31787008457
411319376
128191723
135007368
11411559217
3311606
11504471
1087213
1024121909
293949
3425301
96444
304918479
700128
5288184
229680
470751336
278853120
122432960
91528320
9396006464
Universitas Sumatera Utara
2266228720
397202910
743842890
26785869895
1165278900
215767255
382480340
19207486645
9830016
19817336
3226216
1764128744
482972
4437552
158578
391104014
102187351
71556982
33539345
5687650927
11.174.711.016
2.668.902.860
4.032.311.760
221.915.864.965
X₂X₄
X₂X₃
X₁X₂
X₁X₃
X₁X₄
X₃X₄
179531176
240513160
15981770104
3968695291
59725765
5316755935
138527719
143195794
12331664101
3968695291
46084654
4102431466
170977939
218146033
15220365481
3968695291
56881363
5063548777
215733870
347300190
19204514730
3968695291
71771073
6389022867
17780851
2359418
1582841929
3968695291
5915822
526623338
17881006
2386098
1591757674
3968695291
5949207
529595253
7822450
339360
600326830
4603496335
2602320
199712688
225409236
217583592
15200750842
5238891762
74989512
5057010564
26046977
45294511
2318688083
3968695291
77526647
6901381013
55732919
23179619
4961314901
3968695291
18542029
1650601591
68579736
34401727
6044280727
4008518952
22814952
2010797689
5638412
189254
448164782
4444796074
1876978
149190133
44715869
14720006
3980582951
3968695291
14676046
1306453834
398470006
1168972664
35471588674
3968695291
130789076
11642774204
143048048
150653568
12734061392
3968695291
46952664
4179701256
12833194
1212782
1142404126
3968695291
4213187
375055673
3825921
107724
340581459
3968695291
1255276
111744004
5902468
256360
525434572
3968695291
1936330
172371070
Universitas Sumatera Utara
136621800
102135600
10484916120
4603496335
44843550
3441477570
443238432
830053728
29890332304
5238891762
145483884
9810885798
240772620
426806160
21433450980
3968695291
79028972
7035117188
22114224
3600144
1968596496
3968695291
7257899
646094321
4950096
176894
436277122
4008518952
1625304
143246303
79857562
37429895
6347416057
4444796074
26210390
2083312415
4.011.014.281 220.242.082.437 100.090.530.902
948.952.900
78.844.904.950
2.666.012.531
X₅²
X₁²
X₂²
X₃²
X₄²
675.584.064
722.964.544
44582329
80013025
353.291.150.689
402.243.136
430.438.009
44582329
47637604
353.291.150.689
612.760.516
655.718.449
44582329
72573361
353.291.150.689
975.562.756
1.043.936.100
44582329
115541001
353.291.150.689
6.630.625
7.091.569
44582329
784996
353.291.150.689
6.702.921
7.171.684
44582329
793881
353.291.150.689
952.576
1.020.100
59985025
112896
353.291.150.689
611.177.284
654.029.476
77686596
72386064
353.291.150.689
1.138.320.121
15.217.801
44582329
134815321
353.291.150.689
65.108.761
69.672.409
44582329
7711729
353.291.150.689
96.628.900
103.408.561
45481536
11444689
353.291.150.689
531.441
568.516
55920484
63001
353.291.150.689
36.012.001
44.849.809
44582329
4831204
353.291.150.689
2.860.003.441
3.561.463.684
44582329
383689744
353.291.150.689
368.601.601
458.987.776
44582329
49449024
353.291.150.689
2.968.729
3.694.084
44582329
398161
353.291.150.689
263.169
328.329
44582329
35344
353.291.150.689
Universitas Sumatera Utara
627.264
781.456
44582329
84100
353.291.150.689
249.892.864
311.169.600
59985025
33524100
353.291.150.689
2.030.854.225
2.528.882.944
77686596
272448036
353.291.150.689
1.044.259.225
1.300.323.600
44582329
140090896
353.291.150.689
8.809.024
10.969.344
44582329
1181569
353.291.150.689
432.964
538.756
45481536
58081
353.291.150.689
91.565.761
114.041.041
55920484
12285025
353.291.150.689
12.047.267.641 1.191.464.546
1.441.952.852
8.478.987.616.536
11.286.493.369
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2
Model Diagram Jalur awal menggunakan Software Amos
Persamaan Struktural I dengan mneggunakan Software Amos
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Persamaan Struktur I setelah trimming
Persamaan Struktur II
Persamaan Struktur III
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Persamaan Struktur IV
Persamaan Struktur Analisis Jalur setelah di Triming
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Correlations
Ketersediaan_Be
ras
Ketersediaan_Beras
Pearson Correlation
Produksi_Beras
Produksi_Beras
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Kebutuhan_Beras
Luas_Lahan
.362
.000
.322
.000
24
24
24
24
**
1
.023
.385
.385
.000
.674
.532
**
**
.213
.000
24
24
24
24
Pearson Correlation
.352
.023
1
.347
Sig. (2-tailed)
.000
.002
24
24
24
24
**
.347
1
N
Luas_Lahan
s
**
1
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Kebutuhan_Bera
Pearson Correlation
.674
**
.532
.308
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
.000
.000
.308
24
24
24
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Correlations
Ketersediaan_Be
ras
Ketersediaan_Beras
Pearson Correlation
Produksi_Beras
Produksi_Beras
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Kebutuhan_Beras
s
**
.215
.000
.322
24
24
24
**
1
.062
1
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Kebutuhan_Bera
.251
.251
.000
.213
24
24
24
Pearson Correlation
.215
.062
1
Sig. (2-tailed)
.000
.002
24
24
N
24
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Universitas Sumatera Utara
24
Correlations
Ketersediaan_Be
ras
Produksi_Beras
Pearson Correlation
Produksi_Beras
Kebutuhan_Beras
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Luas_Lahan
Luas_Lahan
.251
.000
.322
.000
24
24
24
24
**
1
.494
.422
.422
.000
.215
.3577
**
**
.213
.000
24
24
24
24
Pearson Correlation
.251
.494
1
.062
Sig. (2-tailed)
.322
.213
24
24
24
24
**
.062
1
.000
.000
.308
24
24
24
N
Jumlah_Penduduk
s
**
1
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Kebutuhan_Bera
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
.215
**
.357
.308
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Universitas Sumatera Utara
24
b
Model Summary
Model
1
R
.814
Adjusted R
Std. Error of the
Square
Estimate
R Square
a
.664
.998
.579
a. Predictors: (Constant), Luas_Lahan, Kebutuhan_Beras,
Produksi_Beras
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan_Beras
b
Model Summary
Model
1
R
.803
Adjusted R
Std. Error of the
Square
Estimate
R Square
a
.646
.998
.595
a. Predictors: (Constant), Kebutuhan_Beras, Produksi_Beras
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan_Beras
b
Model Summary
Model
1
R
.762
Adjusted R
Std. Error of the
Square
Estimate
R Square
a
.578
.565
.650
a. Predictors: (Constant), Kebutuhan_Beras, Luas_Lahan,
Jumlah_Penduduk
b. Dependent Variable: Produksi_Beras
Universitas Sumatera Utara
b
ANOVA
Model
1
Sum of Squares
Regression
Residual
Total
Df
Mean Square
F
5.470E9
3
1.823E9
7917000.711
20
395850.036
5.478E9
23
Sig.
13,17
.000
a
a. Predictors: (Constant), Luas_Lahan, Kebutuhan_Beras, Produksi_Beras
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan_Beras
Coefficients
a
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Coefficients
Std. Error
Beta
653.143
1437.401
Produksi_Beras
.060
.021
Kebutuhan_Beras
.064
Luas_Lahan
.145
t
Sig.
.454
.003
.559
3.571
.008
.207
.447
3.055
.000
.063
.141
.907
.378
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan_Beras
Universitas Sumatera Utara
b
ANOVA
Model
1
Sum of Squares
Regression
Residual
Total
Df
Mean Square
1055,415
2
1156,884
47,276
20
1,266
1102,691
23
F
Sig.
9,13
,000
a
a. Predictors: (Constant), Kebutuhan_Beras, Luas_Lahan, Jumlah_Penduduk
b. Dependent Variable: Produksi_Beras
Coefficients
a
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Coefficients
Std. Error
Beta
653.143
1437.401
Produksi_Beras
.060
.021
Kebutuhan_Beras
.064
Luas_Lahan
.145
t
Sig.
.454
.003
.249
3.710
.003
.207
.478
3.055
.008
.063
.313
3.907
.007
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan_Beras
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1
Data Ketersediaan Beras (Y), Produksi Beras (X1), Kebutuhan Beras (X2),
Luas Lahan (X3) dan Jumlah Penduduk (Y) per bulan pada tahun 2014 dan
2015 di Kabupaten Serdang Berdagai
No
Bulan
Ketersediaan
Beras (ton)
Produksi Beras
(ton)
Kebutuhan
Beras (ton)
Luas Panen
(Ha)
Jumlah
Penduduk (jiwa)
1
Januari 2014
25.992
26.888
6.677
8.945
594.383
2
Februari
20.056
20.747
6.677
6.902
594.383
3
Maret
24.754
25.607
6.677
8.519
594.383
4
April
31.234
32.310
6.677
10.749
594.383
5
Mei
2.575
2.663
6.677
886
594.383
6
Juni
2.589
2.678
6.677
891
594.383
7
Juli
976
1.010
7.745
336
594.383
8
Agustus
24.722
25.574
8.814
8.508
594.383
9
September
33.739
3.901
6.677
11.611
594.383
10
Oktober
8.069
8.347
6.677
2.777
594.383
11
Nopember
9.830
10169
6.744
3.383
594.383
12
Desember
729
754
7.478
251
594.383
13
Januari 2015
6.001
6.697
6.677
2.198
594.383
14
Februari
53.479
59.678
6.677
19.588
594.383
15
Maret
19.199
21.424
6.677
7.032
594.383
16
April
1.723
1.922
6.677
631
594.383
17
Mei
513
573
6.677
188
594.383
18
Juni
792
884
6.677
290
594.383
19
Juli
15.808
17.640
7.745
5.790
594.383
20
Agustus
45.065
50.288
8.814
16.506
594.383
21
September
32.315
36.060
6.677
11.836
594.383
Universitas Sumatera Utara
22
Oktober
23
24
2.968
3.312
6.677
1.087
594.383
Nopember
658
734
6.744
241
594.383
Desember
9.569
10.679
7.478
3.505
594.383
Sumber ; Badan Ketahanan Pangan Provinsi Sumatera Utara
X₅X₂
X₅X₁
X₅X₃
X₅X₄
698872896
173548584
232498440
15449202936
416101832
133913912
138426512
11920945448
633875678
165282458
210879326
14713356782
1009170540
208549418
335734266
18564958622
6857225
17193275
2281450
1530536225
6933342
17286753
2306799
1538857587
985760
7559120
327936
580117808
632240428
217899708
210334776
14694336526
131615839
225275303
391743529
20053888037
67351943
53876713
22407613
4796076427
99961270
66293520
33254890
5842784890
549666
5451462
182979
433305207
40188697
40068677
13190198
3566892383
3191519762
357079283
1047546652
31787008457
411319376
128191723
135007368
11411559217
3311606
11504471
1087213
1024121909
293949
3425301
96444
304918479
700128
5288184
229680
470751336
278853120
122432960
91528320
9396006464
Universitas Sumatera Utara
2266228720
397202910
743842890
26785869895
1165278900
215767255
382480340
19207486645
9830016
19817336
3226216
1764128744
482972
4437552
158578
391104014
102187351
71556982
33539345
5687650927
11.174.711.016
2.668.902.860
4.032.311.760
221.915.864.965
X₂X₄
X₂X₃
X₁X₂
X₁X₃
X₁X₄
X₃X₄
179531176
240513160
15981770104
3968695291
59725765
5316755935
138527719
143195794
12331664101
3968695291
46084654
4102431466
170977939
218146033
15220365481
3968695291
56881363
5063548777
215733870
347300190
19204514730
3968695291
71771073
6389022867
17780851
2359418
1582841929
3968695291
5915822
526623338
17881006
2386098
1591757674
3968695291
5949207
529595253
7822450
339360
600326830
4603496335
2602320
199712688
225409236
217583592
15200750842
5238891762
74989512
5057010564
26046977
45294511
2318688083
3968695291
77526647
6901381013
55732919
23179619
4961314901
3968695291
18542029
1650601591
68579736
34401727
6044280727
4008518952
22814952
2010797689
5638412
189254
448164782
4444796074
1876978
149190133
44715869
14720006
3980582951
3968695291
14676046
1306453834
398470006
1168972664
35471588674
3968695291
130789076
11642774204
143048048
150653568
12734061392
3968695291
46952664
4179701256
12833194
1212782
1142404126
3968695291
4213187
375055673
3825921
107724
340581459
3968695291
1255276
111744004
5902468
256360
525434572
3968695291
1936330
172371070
Universitas Sumatera Utara
136621800
102135600
10484916120
4603496335
44843550
3441477570
443238432
830053728
29890332304
5238891762
145483884
9810885798
240772620
426806160
21433450980
3968695291
79028972
7035117188
22114224
3600144
1968596496
3968695291
7257899
646094321
4950096
176894
436277122
4008518952
1625304
143246303
79857562
37429895
6347416057
4444796074
26210390
2083312415
4.011.014.281 220.242.082.437 100.090.530.902
948.952.900
78.844.904.950
2.666.012.531
X₅²
X₁²
X₂²
X₃²
X₄²
675.584.064
722.964.544
44582329
80013025
353.291.150.689
402.243.136
430.438.009
44582329
47637604
353.291.150.689
612.760.516
655.718.449
44582329
72573361
353.291.150.689
975.562.756
1.043.936.100
44582329
115541001
353.291.150.689
6.630.625
7.091.569
44582329
784996
353.291.150.689
6.702.921
7.171.684
44582329
793881
353.291.150.689
952.576
1.020.100
59985025
112896
353.291.150.689
611.177.284
654.029.476
77686596
72386064
353.291.150.689
1.138.320.121
15.217.801
44582329
134815321
353.291.150.689
65.108.761
69.672.409
44582329
7711729
353.291.150.689
96.628.900
103.408.561
45481536
11444689
353.291.150.689
531.441
568.516
55920484
63001
353.291.150.689
36.012.001
44.849.809
44582329
4831204
353.291.150.689
2.860.003.441
3.561.463.684
44582329
383689744
353.291.150.689
368.601.601
458.987.776
44582329
49449024
353.291.150.689
2.968.729
3.694.084
44582329
398161
353.291.150.689
263.169
328.329
44582329
35344
353.291.150.689
Universitas Sumatera Utara
627.264
781.456
44582329
84100
353.291.150.689
249.892.864
311.169.600
59985025
33524100
353.291.150.689
2.030.854.225
2.528.882.944
77686596
272448036
353.291.150.689
1.044.259.225
1.300.323.600
44582329
140090896
353.291.150.689
8.809.024
10.969.344
44582329
1181569
353.291.150.689
432.964
538.756
45481536
58081
353.291.150.689
91.565.761
114.041.041
55920484
12285025
353.291.150.689
12.047.267.641 1.191.464.546
1.441.952.852
8.478.987.616.536
11.286.493.369
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2
Model Diagram Jalur awal menggunakan Software Amos
Persamaan Struktural I dengan mneggunakan Software Amos
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Persamaan Struktur I setelah trimming
Persamaan Struktur II
Persamaan Struktur III
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Persamaan Struktur IV
Persamaan Struktur Analisis Jalur setelah di Triming
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Correlations
Ketersediaan_Be
ras
Ketersediaan_Beras
Pearson Correlation
Produksi_Beras
Produksi_Beras
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Kebutuhan_Beras
Luas_Lahan
.362
.000
.322
.000
24
24
24
24
**
1
.023
.385
.385
.000
.674
.532
**
**
.213
.000
24
24
24
24
Pearson Correlation
.352
.023
1
.347
Sig. (2-tailed)
.000
.002
24
24
24
24
**
.347
1
N
Luas_Lahan
s
**
1
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Kebutuhan_Bera
Pearson Correlation
.674
**
.532
.308
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
.000
.000
.308
24
24
24
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Correlations
Ketersediaan_Be
ras
Ketersediaan_Beras
Pearson Correlation
Produksi_Beras
Produksi_Beras
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Kebutuhan_Beras
s
**
.215
.000
.322
24
24
24
**
1
.062
1
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Kebutuhan_Bera
.251
.251
.000
.213
24
24
24
Pearson Correlation
.215
.062
1
Sig. (2-tailed)
.000
.002
24
24
N
24
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Universitas Sumatera Utara
24
Correlations
Ketersediaan_Be
ras
Produksi_Beras
Pearson Correlation
Produksi_Beras
Kebutuhan_Beras
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Luas_Lahan
Luas_Lahan
.251
.000
.322
.000
24
24
24
24
**
1
.494
.422
.422
.000
.215
.3577
**
**
.213
.000
24
24
24
24
Pearson Correlation
.251
.494
1
.062
Sig. (2-tailed)
.322
.213
24
24
24
24
**
.062
1
.000
.000
.308
24
24
24
N
Jumlah_Penduduk
s
**
1
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
Kebutuhan_Bera
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N
.215
**
.357
.308
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
Universitas Sumatera Utara
24
b
Model Summary
Model
1
R
.814
Adjusted R
Std. Error of the
Square
Estimate
R Square
a
.664
.998
.579
a. Predictors: (Constant), Luas_Lahan, Kebutuhan_Beras,
Produksi_Beras
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan_Beras
b
Model Summary
Model
1
R
.803
Adjusted R
Std. Error of the
Square
Estimate
R Square
a
.646
.998
.595
a. Predictors: (Constant), Kebutuhan_Beras, Produksi_Beras
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan_Beras
b
Model Summary
Model
1
R
.762
Adjusted R
Std. Error of the
Square
Estimate
R Square
a
.578
.565
.650
a. Predictors: (Constant), Kebutuhan_Beras, Luas_Lahan,
Jumlah_Penduduk
b. Dependent Variable: Produksi_Beras
Universitas Sumatera Utara
b
ANOVA
Model
1
Sum of Squares
Regression
Residual
Total
Df
Mean Square
F
5.470E9
3
1.823E9
7917000.711
20
395850.036
5.478E9
23
Sig.
13,17
.000
a
a. Predictors: (Constant), Luas_Lahan, Kebutuhan_Beras, Produksi_Beras
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan_Beras
Coefficients
a
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Coefficients
Std. Error
Beta
653.143
1437.401
Produksi_Beras
.060
.021
Kebutuhan_Beras
.064
Luas_Lahan
.145
t
Sig.
.454
.003
.559
3.571
.008
.207
.447
3.055
.000
.063
.141
.907
.378
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan_Beras
Universitas Sumatera Utara
b
ANOVA
Model
1
Sum of Squares
Regression
Residual
Total
Df
Mean Square
1055,415
2
1156,884
47,276
20
1,266
1102,691
23
F
Sig.
9,13
,000
a
a. Predictors: (Constant), Kebutuhan_Beras, Luas_Lahan, Jumlah_Penduduk
b. Dependent Variable: Produksi_Beras
Coefficients
a
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Coefficients
Std. Error
Beta
653.143
1437.401
Produksi_Beras
.060
.021
Kebutuhan_Beras
.064
Luas_Lahan
.145
t
Sig.
.454
.003
.249
3.710
.003
.207
.478
3.055
.008
.063
.313
3.907
.007
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan_Beras
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara