Faktor – Faktor Ketersediaan Beras di Kabupaten Serdang Bedagai Dengan Menggunakan Analisis Jalur

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 1
Data Ketersediaan Beras (Y), Produksi Beras (X1), Kebutuhan Beras (X2),
Luas Lahan (X3) dan Jumlah Penduduk (Y) per bulan pada tahun 2014 dan
2015 di Kabupaten Serdang Berdagai

No

Bulan

Ketersediaan
Beras (ton)

Produksi Beras
(ton)

Kebutuhan
Beras (ton)

Luas Panen

(Ha)

Jumlah
Penduduk (jiwa)

1

Januari 2014

25.992

26.888

6.677

8.945

594.383

2


Februari

20.056

20.747

6.677

6.902

594.383

3

Maret

24.754

25.607


6.677

8.519

594.383

4

April

31.234

32.310

6.677

10.749

594.383


5

Mei

2.575

2.663

6.677

886

594.383

6

Juni

2.589


2.678

6.677

891

594.383

7

Juli

976

1.010

7.745

336


594.383

8

Agustus

24.722

25.574

8.814

8.508

594.383

9

September


33.739

3.901

6.677

11.611

594.383

10

Oktober

8.069

8.347

6.677


2.777

594.383

11

Nopember

9.830

10169

6.744

3.383

594.383

12


Desember

729

754

7.478

251

594.383

13

Januari 2015

6.001

6.697


6.677

2.198

594.383

14

Februari

53.479

59.678

6.677

19.588

594.383


15

Maret

19.199

21.424

6.677

7.032

594.383

16

April

1.723

1.922

6.677

631

594.383

17

Mei

513

573

6.677

188

594.383

18

Juni

792

884

6.677

290

594.383

19

Juli

15.808

17.640

7.745

5.790

594.383

20

Agustus

45.065

50.288

8.814

16.506

594.383

21

September

32.315

36.060

6.677

11.836

594.383

Universitas Sumatera Utara

22

Oktober

23

24

2.968

3.312

6.677

1.087

594.383

Nopember

658

734

6.744

241

594.383

Desember

9.569

10.679

7.478

3.505

594.383

Sumber ; Badan Ketahanan Pangan Provinsi Sumatera Utara

X₅X₂

X₅X₁

X₅X₃

X₅X₄

698872896

173548584

232498440

15449202936

416101832

133913912

138426512

11920945448

633875678

165282458

210879326

14713356782

1009170540

208549418

335734266

18564958622

6857225

17193275

2281450

1530536225

6933342

17286753

2306799

1538857587

985760

7559120

327936

580117808

632240428

217899708

210334776

14694336526

131615839

225275303

391743529

20053888037

67351943

53876713

22407613

4796076427

99961270

66293520

33254890

5842784890

549666

5451462

182979

433305207

40188697

40068677

13190198

3566892383

3191519762

357079283

1047546652

31787008457

411319376

128191723

135007368

11411559217

3311606

11504471

1087213

1024121909

293949

3425301

96444

304918479

700128

5288184

229680

470751336

278853120

122432960

91528320

9396006464

Universitas Sumatera Utara

2266228720

397202910

743842890

26785869895

1165278900

215767255

382480340

19207486645

9830016

19817336

3226216

1764128744

482972

4437552

158578

391104014

102187351

71556982

33539345

5687650927

11.174.711.016

2.668.902.860

4.032.311.760

221.915.864.965

X₂X₄

X₂X₃

X₁X₂

X₁X₃

X₁X₄

X₃X₄

179531176

240513160

15981770104

3968695291

59725765

5316755935

138527719

143195794

12331664101

3968695291

46084654

4102431466

170977939

218146033

15220365481

3968695291

56881363

5063548777

215733870

347300190

19204514730

3968695291

71771073

6389022867

17780851

2359418

1582841929

3968695291

5915822

526623338

17881006

2386098

1591757674

3968695291

5949207

529595253

7822450

339360

600326830

4603496335

2602320

199712688

225409236

217583592

15200750842

5238891762

74989512

5057010564

26046977

45294511

2318688083

3968695291

77526647

6901381013

55732919

23179619

4961314901

3968695291

18542029

1650601591

68579736

34401727

6044280727

4008518952

22814952

2010797689

5638412

189254

448164782

4444796074

1876978

149190133

44715869

14720006

3980582951

3968695291

14676046

1306453834

398470006

1168972664

35471588674

3968695291

130789076

11642774204

143048048

150653568

12734061392

3968695291

46952664

4179701256

12833194

1212782

1142404126

3968695291

4213187

375055673

3825921

107724

340581459

3968695291

1255276

111744004

5902468

256360

525434572

3968695291

1936330

172371070

Universitas Sumatera Utara

136621800

102135600

10484916120

4603496335

44843550

3441477570

443238432

830053728

29890332304

5238891762

145483884

9810885798

240772620

426806160

21433450980

3968695291

79028972

7035117188

22114224

3600144

1968596496

3968695291

7257899

646094321

4950096

176894

436277122

4008518952

1625304

143246303

79857562

37429895

6347416057

4444796074

26210390

2083312415

4.011.014.281 220.242.082.437 100.090.530.902

948.952.900

78.844.904.950

2.666.012.531

X₅²

X₁²

X₂²

X₃²

X₄²

675.584.064

722.964.544

44582329

80013025

353.291.150.689

402.243.136

430.438.009

44582329

47637604

353.291.150.689

612.760.516

655.718.449

44582329

72573361

353.291.150.689

975.562.756

1.043.936.100

44582329

115541001

353.291.150.689

6.630.625

7.091.569

44582329

784996

353.291.150.689

6.702.921

7.171.684

44582329

793881

353.291.150.689

952.576

1.020.100

59985025

112896

353.291.150.689

611.177.284

654.029.476

77686596

72386064

353.291.150.689

1.138.320.121

15.217.801

44582329

134815321

353.291.150.689

65.108.761

69.672.409

44582329

7711729

353.291.150.689

96.628.900

103.408.561

45481536

11444689

353.291.150.689

531.441

568.516

55920484

63001

353.291.150.689

36.012.001

44.849.809

44582329

4831204

353.291.150.689

2.860.003.441

3.561.463.684

44582329

383689744

353.291.150.689

368.601.601

458.987.776

44582329

49449024

353.291.150.689

2.968.729

3.694.084

44582329

398161

353.291.150.689

263.169

328.329

44582329

35344

353.291.150.689

Universitas Sumatera Utara

627.264

781.456

44582329

84100

353.291.150.689

249.892.864

311.169.600

59985025

33524100

353.291.150.689

2.030.854.225

2.528.882.944

77686596

272448036

353.291.150.689

1.044.259.225

1.300.323.600

44582329

140090896

353.291.150.689

8.809.024

10.969.344

44582329

1181569

353.291.150.689

432.964

538.756

45481536

58081

353.291.150.689

91.565.761

114.041.041

55920484

12285025

353.291.150.689

12.047.267.641 1.191.464.546

1.441.952.852

8.478.987.616.536

11.286.493.369

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Lampiran 2

Model Diagram Jalur awal menggunakan Software Amos

Persamaan Struktural I dengan mneggunakan Software Amos

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Persamaan Struktur I setelah trimming

Persamaan Struktur II

Persamaan Struktur III

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Persamaan Struktur IV

Persamaan Struktur Analisis Jalur setelah di Triming

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Correlations

Ketersediaan_Be
ras
Ketersediaan_Beras

Pearson Correlation

Produksi_Beras

Produksi_Beras

Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N

Kebutuhan_Beras

Luas_Lahan
.362

.000

.322

.000

24

24

24

24

**

1

.023

.385

.385

.000

.674

.532

**

**

.213

.000

24

24

24

24

Pearson Correlation

.352

.023

1

.347

Sig. (2-tailed)

.000

.002

24

24

24

24

**

.347

1

N
Luas_Lahan

s

**

1

Sig. (2-tailed)
N

Kebutuhan_Bera

Pearson Correlation

.674

**

.532

.308

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Sig. (2-tailed)
N

.000

.000

.308

24

24

24

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Correlations

Ketersediaan_Be
ras
Ketersediaan_Beras

Pearson Correlation

Produksi_Beras

Produksi_Beras

Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N

Kebutuhan_Beras

s

**

.215

.000

.322

24

24

24

**

1

.062

1

Sig. (2-tailed)
N

Kebutuhan_Bera

.251

.251

.000

.213

24

24

24

Pearson Correlation

.215

.062

1

Sig. (2-tailed)

.000

.002

24

24

N

24

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Universitas Sumatera Utara

24

Correlations

Ketersediaan_Be
ras
Produksi_Beras

Pearson Correlation

Produksi_Beras

Kebutuhan_Beras

Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N

Luas_Lahan

Luas_Lahan
.251

.000

.322

.000

24

24

24

24

**

1

.494

.422

.422

.000

.215

.3577

**

**

.213

.000

24

24

24

24

Pearson Correlation

.251

.494

1

.062

Sig. (2-tailed)

.322

.213

24

24

24

24

**

.062

1

.000

.000

.308

24

24

24

N
Jumlah_Penduduk

s

**

1

Sig. (2-tailed)
N

Kebutuhan_Bera

Pearson Correlation
Sig. (2-tailed)
N

.215

**

.357

.308

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Universitas Sumatera Utara

24

b

Model Summary

Model
1

R
.814

Adjusted R

Std. Error of the

Square

Estimate

R Square
a

.664

.998

.579

a. Predictors: (Constant), Luas_Lahan, Kebutuhan_Beras,
Produksi_Beras
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan_Beras

b

Model Summary

Model
1

R
.803

Adjusted R

Std. Error of the

Square

Estimate

R Square
a

.646

.998

.595

a. Predictors: (Constant), Kebutuhan_Beras, Produksi_Beras
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan_Beras

b

Model Summary

Model
1

R
.762

Adjusted R

Std. Error of the

Square

Estimate

R Square
a

.578

.565

.650

a. Predictors: (Constant), Kebutuhan_Beras, Luas_Lahan,
Jumlah_Penduduk
b. Dependent Variable: Produksi_Beras

Universitas Sumatera Utara

b

ANOVA

Model
1

Sum of Squares
Regression
Residual
Total

Df

Mean Square

F

5.470E9

3

1.823E9

7917000.711

20

395850.036

5.478E9

23

Sig.
13,17

.000

a

a. Predictors: (Constant), Luas_Lahan, Kebutuhan_Beras, Produksi_Beras
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan_Beras

Coefficients

a

Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1

B
(Constant)

Coefficients

Std. Error

Beta

653.143

1437.401

Produksi_Beras

.060

.021

Kebutuhan_Beras

.064

Luas_Lahan

.145

t

Sig.
.454

.003

.559

3.571

.008

.207

.447

3.055

.000

.063

.141

.907

.378

a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan_Beras

Universitas Sumatera Utara

b

ANOVA
Model
1

Sum of Squares
Regression
Residual
Total

Df

Mean Square

1055,415

2

1156,884

47,276

20

1,266

1102,691

23

F

Sig.
9,13

,000

a

a. Predictors: (Constant), Kebutuhan_Beras, Luas_Lahan, Jumlah_Penduduk
b. Dependent Variable: Produksi_Beras

Coefficients

a

Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1

B
(Constant)

Coefficients

Std. Error

Beta

653.143

1437.401

Produksi_Beras

.060

.021

Kebutuhan_Beras

.064

Luas_Lahan

.145

t

Sig.
.454

.003

.249

3.710

.003

.207

.478

3.055

.008

.063

.313

3.907

.007

a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan_Beras

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Universitas Sumatera Utara

Universitas Sumatera Utara