| Outlook for air pollution

Chapter 2 | Outlook for air pollution 57

Chapter 2

Outlook for air pollution Towards blue skies? Hi g h l i g h t s  The IEA has undertaken a first-of-a-kind assessment of the impact of energy and air pollution policies on air pollutant emissions through 2040. This World Energy Outlook Special Report finds that despite a global decline in emissions, existing and planned energy sector policies are not sufficient to improve air quality: in our central scenario, premature deaths attributable to outdoor air pollution increase to 4.5 million in 2040 from around 3 million today, while premature deaths due to household air pollution fall to 2.9 million from 3.5 million today.  The global results mask strong regional differences, which stem from the energy mix and the rigour of energy and air quality policies. In our central scenario, emissions continue to fall in industrialised countries, while in China, recent signs of decline are consolidated. Emissions generally rise in India, Southeast Asia and Africa, as expected growth in energy demand dwarfs policy efforts related to air quality. Poor air quality continues to affect the poorest most adversely: by 2040, 1.8 billion people still have no access to clean cooking devices from 2.7 billion today, exposing mostly women and children to harmful household air pollution. The policies with the most impact on reducing emissions include those that increase access to modern energy services in developing countries, improve energy efficiency, promote fuel diversification and control air pollutant emissions.  The outlook for air quality is a policy choice to be made: new energy and air quality policies can deliver cleaner air. This is why the IEA proposes the Clean Air Scenario that builds on proven and pragmatic energy and air quality policies and uses only existing technologies. Their implementation provides citizens with cleaner air and better health. In the Clean Air Scenario, premature deaths from outdoor air pollution fall to 2.8 million in 2040 and from household air pollution to 1.3 million. The benefits are largest in developing countries: the share of I dia’s populatio exposed to PM 2.5 concentrations above the least stringent WHO target falls to 18 in 2040 from 62 today, while in China, it shrinks to 23 from 56 today and to almost zero in Indonesia and South Africa.  Achieving the benefits of the Clean Air Scenario depends upon implementation of a range of policies: access to clean cooking for all is essential to reduce the use of inefficient biomass cookstoves and associated PM 2.5 emissions. Emissions standards – strictly enforced – in road transport are central to reducing NO X emissions, in particular in cities. SO 2 emissions are brought down by controlling emissions and switching fuels in the power sector, and increasing energy efficiency in the industry sector. The additional investment needs are not insurmountable: cumulative investment in the Clean Air Scenario is 7 or 4.8 trillion higher than in the New Policies Scenario. The value of the resultant benefits is typically many times higher. © OECDIEA, 2016 58 World Energy Outlook 2016 | Special Report Introduction: framing the scenarios What impact will existing and planned air quality policies have on air pollutant emissions from future energy production and use? Will announced and intended policy efforts prove to be significantly sufficient to improve air quality, or will stronger action be needed? What is the role of policies specifically addressing air pollution, and what is the broader contribution of the energy sector transformation already taking place under the impetus of COP21 and other forces? Building on the analysis in Chapter 1 of the interaction between energy and air quality, this chapter examines future prospects based on various assumptions and assesses the costs of substantially eliminating energy-related air pollutants and the value of the benefits in terms of human health. This analysis, presented as Energy and Air Pollution: World Energy Outlook Special Report, has involved a first-of-a- kind assessment of the outlook for energy-related air pollutant emissions by country and region to 2040. The objective is to provide a clear and transparent picture of where we are heading and guidance on possible areas for future improvement. The conclusions rely on four major areas of research and analysis:  A detailed country-by-country review of energy-related policies that affect the outlook for air pollution, both policies in place and those under discussion. The whole of the energy value chain is covered, from policies that affect energy production and transformation to those that affect energy consumption in the end-use sectors. 1  An assessment of the impact that these policies might have on improving – or impairing – air quality in the medium- and long-term trends for energy-related air pollution. This assessment is based on an updated World Energy Outlook WEO New Policies Scenario and was made possible thanks to a coupling of modelling and analytical efforts between the World Energy Outlook team and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA Box 2.1.  The introduction of a major new scenario, the Clean Air Scenario, incorporating a pragmatic suite of additional policies that can deliver a significant reduction in air pollution. The choice of additional measures in the Clean Air Scenario is tailored to each region, based on experience with the implementation of policies and technologies elsewhere.  A quantification of the implications of each scenario for human health, the largest economic cost of air pollution. This was achieved by looking at the projected concentrations of energy-related particulate matter in ambient air, the number of premature deaths associated with those levels of pollution, both today and in the future, as a result of household and outdoor air pollution, and the effects on average life expectancy see Chapter 1, Box 1.3. 1 The re ie as o du ted usi g the e erg a d li ate poli data ases of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook, supplemented by sources that look specifically at air pollution measures, notably, www.transportpolicy.net and www.unep.orgTransportAirquality and national government sources. © OECDIEA, 2016 Chapter 2 | Outlook for air pollution