Chapter 9 | Southeast Asia
209
Chapter 9
Southeast Asia
Hi g h l i g h t s
Air pollution is a pressing concern in many countries in the Southeast Asia region. Its sources are multiple and varied. Nevertheless, the energy sector plays a key role.
Although air quality standards often are in place, enforcement is weak. Reliance on traditional use of bioenergy for cooking in some countries is a major contributor to
air pollution. In 2015, Indonesia experienced around 70 000 premature deaths associated with outdoor pollution and 140 000 associated with household air
pollution.
Energy demand rises at a rapid pace to almost 1 100 Mtoe in 2040 in the New Policies Scenario, 80 more than
today’s le el. The absence of stringent air quality policies and strong growth in coal demand mean that emissions rise: SO
2
and NO
X
emissions each grow by some 45 through to 2040. PM
2.5
emissions fall by 13, as the share of people without access to clean cooking devices falls from 45 today to
30 by 2040. Yet 225 million people in the region still rely on the traditional use of biomass for cooking by 2040 and the associated health impacts remain severe: the
number of premature deaths in Indonesia associated with outdoor air pollution rises to almost 120 000 in 2040 and premature deaths related to household air pollution
decline only modestly to 120 000.
There is particular scope for the measures in the Clean Air Scenario to be effective in Southeast Asia. Emissions of SO
2
and NO
X
are some 75 lower in 2040 compared with the New Policies Scenario while emissions of PM
2.5
are 85 lower. Universal access to clean cooking devices is reached by 2035 and universal access to electricity
by 2030. The results are very beneficial for human health: premature death cases in Indonesia from outdoor air pollution drop to 19 000 in 2040 and from household air
pollution to around 45 000. By 2040, more than 80 of the Indonesian population enjoys air quality levels that comply with the WHO guidelines for PM
2.5
from over 40 today.
The energy and air quality context
The circumstances of the ten countries that belong to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are diverse in economic, political and energy terms, but all share a common
characteristic
rapid growth. The regio ’s e o o y has dou led i size si e , while
the population has grown by around 20 and the share of people living in urban areas increased from less than 40 in 2000 to over 45 today. This rapid growth in the economy
and population has been accompanied by a strong rise in energy demand, which has grown by around 55 since 2000. In this period, energy demand growth was met by coal and
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2016
210 World Energy Outlook 2016 |
Special Report
natural gas both at around 30, oil 27 and bioenergy 10, although renewables such as hydropower, solar and wind have been making inroads.
1
Yet, despite the formidable growth in supply, close to 20 of the population still has no access to electricity and around
45 have no access to clean cookstoves, relying instead, on the use of fuelwood and charcoal for cooking. The combination of rapid economic and energy demand growth, with
increasing urbanisation and reliance on the traditional use of biomass presents a serious threat in terms of air pollution. Air quality standards are in place in several countries in the
region Table 9.1. However, while some of the standards comply with the World Health Organization WHO interim targets, enforcement action is limited and concentration limits
are frequently exceeded.
Table 9.1
⊳
Selected ambient air quality standards in Southeast Asia µgm
3
Country PM
2.5
SO
2
NO
2
24 hour Annual
24 hour Annual
24 hour Annual
Brunei Darussalam -
15 -
- -
- Cambodia
- -
300 100
100 -
Indonesia 65
15 365
60 150
100 Lao PDR
- -
300 100
- -
Malaysia -
35 105
- -
- Myanmar
- -
- -
- -
Philippines 50
25 180
80 150
- Singapore
37.5 25 12 10
50 20 15
- 40
Thailand 50
25 300
100 -
57 Viet Nam
50 25
125 50
- 40
Notes: PDR = People’s De o rati Repu li ; targets for 2020, values in brackets are long-term targets; interim target for 2015; PM
2.5
represents revised standards in 2016. Source: Clean Air Asia 2016.
Combustion of coal for power generation and industrial processes are the largest sources of energy-related SO
2
emissions in Southeast Asia today, together accounting for around three-quarters of the total 3.9 million tonnes Mt of sulfur dioxide SO
2
emissions. Almost half of the SO
2
emissions from coal-fired power generation occur in Indonesia alone –
roughly matching its share of the regional coal-fired power generation fleet. Energy-related nitrogen oxides NO
X
emissions were 5.7 Mt in Southeast Asia in 2015, of which around two-thirds were the result of oil combustion, primarily in the transport sector. The number
of private cars in the region more than doubled from around 10 million in 2000 to more than 20 million today, reflecting income growth, although two- and three-wheelers and
public buses remain important sources of mobility and, hence, urban NO
X
emissions Box 9.1. Fine particulate matter PM
2.5
emissions from the energy sector in Southeast
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For an in-depth analysis of energy developments, challenges and opportunities in the region, see World Energy Outlook-2015 Special Report: Southeast Asia Energy Outlook, available as a free download
at: www.worldenergyoutlook.orgsoutheastasiaenergyoutlook.
© OECDIEA,
2016
Chapter 9 | Southeast Asia
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