Chapter 10 | Africa
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Chapter 10
Africa
Hi g h l i g h t s
Africa faces multiple developmental and environmental challenges, which are rooted in poverty and the source of a grave health burden on the population. Air
pollution from the energy sector is increasingly a leading risk factor. Household air pollution, closely linked to a lack of access to modern energy services, causes around
half a million premature deaths annually in sub-Saharan Africa, where four-fifths of the population rely on the traditional use of solid biomass for cooking, and candles
and kerosene lamps are extensively used for indoor lighting. Cities are becoming increasingly choked with vehicles which are unregulated by emission standards, by
the use of back-up generators to mitigate the often absent or unreliable electricity supply, and the widespread burning of waste.
The outlook to 2040 for Africa in the New Policies Scenario is mixed. Even though there is a general absence of current policy measures to mitigate the adverse effects
of air quality associated with the projected 75 rise in energy demand, which means that PM
2.5
emissions in Africa grow by almost a fifth by 2040, improvements in access to modern energy cause the annual number of premature deaths attributable
to household pollution to decrease by 110 000. The share of the population relying on traditional cooking methods falls from 68 today to one-third by 2040, and the
share of people without electricity access falls from 57 to 25, bringing power to over one billion more people. Power generation is projected to almost triple over
the period, with renewables excluding biomass providing one-third of generation by 20
4 , twi e today’s share. Despite so e i pro e e ts, howe er, stro g population growth leaves 655 million people still without access to clean cooking,
and half a billion people without electricity access, and as a result over 360 000 premature deaths are still attributable to household air pollution in 2040.
In the Clean Air Scenario, PM
2.5
emissions fall by more than 80 in 2040 relative to the New Policies Scenario, largely as a result of achieving universal access to energy.
SO
2
is more than halved and NO
X
falls by three quarters relative to the New Policies Scenario because emission standards in transport, industry and power generation
are introduced. This means that by 2040, 220 000 deaths are prevented annually from household air pollution compared with the New Policies Scenario. Overall
primary energy demand decreases by one-quarter compared with the New Policies Scenario: energy is used more efficiently and the consumption of all fossil fuels is
reduced, and as a result, CO
2
emissions in 2040 fall from 1.8 Gt in the New Policies Scenario to 1.5 Gt in 2040.
© OECDIEA,
2016
230 World Energy Outlook 2016 |
Special Report
The energy and air quality context
Parts of Africa are experiencing relatively strong economic growth. The economic output of sub-Saharan Africa has doubled since 2000, but remains below that of Germany, despite
the population being more than ten-times larger. Across the continent as a whole, gross domestic product per capita has increased by more than one-quarter over the past decade.
The population of the continent is rapidly growing and urbanising. Africa is expected to be home to around 22 of the global population by 2040, compared with 10 in 1971 and
6 today. Afri a is today the world’s ost rural continent with only around 40 of the population living in urban areas, but it is one of the fastest-urbanizing world regions
– more than half of the population is expected to live in urban areas by 2040.
Energy demand in Africa has risen by half since 2000 though per-capita energy demand remains low at about one-third of the global average. The energy mix is dominated by
biomass, which accounts for almost half of energy demand across Africa and has a share as high as three-quarters of the total in sub-Saharan Africa excluding South Africa. Only one-
third of the population of the continent has access to modern cooking fuels
– a low level matched only in India
– with biomass used extensively as a cooking fuel. Electricity access is also the lowest in the world: around 635 million people, 57 of the population, do not have
access to electricity today. Per-capita electricity consumption in Africa is one-fifth of the global average, with wide variations by country: while almost all North Africans have access
to electricity, only one-third has access in sub-Saharan Africa, and this falls to just 17 when looking at the rural population. Nigeria alone has 96 million people without access to
electricity. Those who do have access to electricity experience frequent blackouts
– Nigeria experiences on average 33 power outages every month and rationing due to inadequate
supply and ageing infrastructure World Bank, 2016. Demand outstrips electricity supply, resulting in the cost of electricity generation being significantly higher in many African
countries than in other world regions AfDB, 2013. Industrial activities are also compromised as a result of high prices. The many positive efforts to provide electricity
access across the continent have not been sufficient to decrease the number of people without access to electricity; Africa is the only world region where the number of people
without access to electricity has actually increased since 2000, despite a significant decrease in numbers in North African countries and some sub-Saharan countries, including
South Africa, Gabon, Botswana and Ghana.
Fossil fuels dominate the production of electricity, accounting for more than 80 of total power supply. South Africa, which generates almost 60 of all the power generated in sub-
Saharan Africa, derives 94 of its power from coal. South Africa also accounts for around 25 of total oil consumption in sub-Saharan Africa and Nigeria for more than 20, meaning
that the remaining 40-plus countries collectively consume less oil than the Netherlands. While there has been increasing international focus on delivering universal clean energy
a ess, su h as through the Afri a De elop e t Ba k’s New Deal o E ergy for Afri a, it is clear from the UN SE4All tracking that progress falls substantially short of what is required
to attain clean energy access by 2030 IEA and World Bank, 2015.
© OECDIEA,
2016
Chapter 10 | Africa
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