Chapter 8 | India
189
Chapter 8
India
Hi g h l i g h t s
Ele e of the world’s ost polluted ities are i I dia a d poor air uality is already a major public health issue: around 590 000 premature deaths were
attributable to outdoor air pollution in 2015 and about 1 million premature deaths to household air pollution. Average life expectancy in India today is reduced by
23 months because of air pollution. Demographic trends, rising incomes, urbanisation and industrialisation are all driving up energy consumption and
worsening air pollution.
Existing and planned policies in India help contain pollutant emissions growth in the New Policies Scenario: SO
2
and NO
X
emissions each grow by about 10 to 2040, and PM
2.5
emissions by 7, despite strong economic growth. The New Environment Protection Amendment Rules are particularly effective in cutting power sector
pollutant emissions and the new Bharat VI standard brings down NO
X
and PM
2.5
emissions in transport. But these achievements are more than offset by strong growth in emissions from the industry and transformation sector. The net result is
that air quality remains an important policy concern through to 2040. Although the average loss of life expectancy declines to 16 months, the number of people dying
prematurely from outdoor air pollution grows to over 900 000. The number of premature deaths associated with household air pollution drops to around 800 000
as the use of cleaner cookstoves expands.
The Clean Air Scenario demonstrates the positive impact that timely and more stringent air pollution regulations can have on public health in a country that has yet
to build the bulk of its energy and industrial infrastructure. Achieving universal access to clean cooking facilities, imposing emissions standards on heavy-duty
vehicles, more stringent fuel-quality standards and limits on emissions from the industry and transformation sector, all contribute to a significant drop in emissions
by 2040: SO
2
emissions are lower by more than 70 compared with the New Policies Scenario, NO
X
emissions are down by more than half and PM
2.5
emissions are cut by almost 80. By 2040, the average loss of life expectancy drops to eight months and
the number of premature deaths attributable to air pollution to around 560 000 outdoor pollution and 360 000 household air pollution. In the Clean Air Scenario,
almost 10 of the population in 2040 live in areas meeting the World Health Organization air quality guideline, compared with less than 1 today.
© OECDIEA,
2016
190 World Energy Outlook 2016 |
Special Report
The energy and air quality context
India is in the midst of a profound transformation of its economy and its place in global e ergy affairs. As Chi a’s growth slows a d e o es less e ergy-intensive, India assumes
the role of prime motor of global energy demand. With over one- si th of the world’s
population today but only 6 of global energy use, the scope for a rapid expansion in I dia’s e ergy o su ptio is lear a d new policies have been introduced – on the both
supply and demand sides – to provide for this. Rising levels of access to modern energy,
incomes, urbanisation and industrial isatio e.g. ia the Make i I dia i itiati e are the
for es that u derpi I dia’s e ergy outlook. But there is a ajor risk that these sa e for es ay also lead to a worse i g of I dia’s already ad air uality, espe ially gi e the
importance in Indi a’s e ergy i of oal 44 of total energy demand, biomass 24 and
oil 23 a d today’s relati ely s all shares of natural gas 6, renewables 2 and
nuclear 1. India is very densely populated, with some 420 inhabitants per km
2
12 times the population density of the United States and has more than 45 cities with a population
exceeding one million. In many of them – including Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata –
air quality is already a serious problem: of the 20 most polluted cities in the world, according to the WHO, 11 are in India WHO, forthcoming Box 8.1. India is still in the
early stages of its economic development, with policy makers facing a number of economic and environmental challenges, and trade-offs. Nonetheless, air pollution is progressing up
the list of policy priorities. It has been identified as the fifth most important cause of mortality Atkinson R., et al., 2011. In many parts of India, air pollution has become a
pote t issue of pu li o er , espe ially a o g I dia’s growing urban middle classes. Since the mid-1980s, ambient air quality is being monitored across the country under the
National Air Monitoring Programme, which was initiated by the Central Pollution Control Board CPCB. Currently there are more than 580 air quality monitoring stations in service.
They cover some 245 cities including the above-mentioned 45 one million plus cities in 28 states and five union territories. Particulate matter PM is currently the main concern
as concentrations exceed the standards 60 µgm
3
for PM
10
in many of the monitoring locations.
1
Nitrogen oxides NO
X
are becoming increasingly problematic with measurements indicating concentrations that approach or exceed the standards
40 micrometres per cubic metre [µgm
3
] in a growing number of locations. Sulfur dioxide SO
2
concentrations are generally below the set limits 50 µgm
3
in the measurement locations, primarily due to the combustion of coal with low-sulfur content.
As elsewhere, air pollution comes from a number of energy-related sources including vehicle tailpipes, thermal power stations, back-up generators, brick kilns, industrial activity
1
Size is an important factor in determining the health impacts of PM: oarse particles are etwee 2.5 and
10 i ro etres µ i dia eter a d fine parti les are s aller tha .5 µm.
© OECDIEA,
2016
Chapter 8 | India
Kategori