Chapter 7 | China
169
Chapter 7
China
Hi g h l i g h t s
High levels of air pollution are an urgent social and public health challenge in China. Around 1 million premature deaths today can be attributed to outdoor pollution and
household air pollution accounts for a further 1.2 million premature deaths. Average life expectancy in China is reduced by almost 25 months because of poor air quality.
The response of the Chinese government has been intense and broad in scope. Alongside anticipated structural changes in the economy that lead China towards a
less energy-intensive model for growth, the implementation of existing and planned air quality and energy policies in the New Policies Scenario leads to a significant
reduction in emissions over the period to 2040: SO
2
emissions fall by almost 30 and NO
X
and PM
2.5
by around 40. For SO
2
and PM
2.5
, emissions reductions in the industry and transformation sector alone are almost as large as the total amount
emitted by the entire energy sector of the United States today.
The Chinese national average air quality target for PM
2.5
of 35 µgm
3
is reached during the 2030s in the New Policies Scenario and helps to increase average life
expectancy by nine months in 2040. Yet, nearly half of the population still lives in areas in which the air quality target is not met. As a result of this and with an ageing
population, 1.5 million people die prematurely in 2040 from outdoor air pollution and almost 1 million people from household air pollution.
Measures included in the Clean Air Scenario can significantly improve air quality in China. In this scenario, the national PM
2.5
air quality target is achieved during the 2020s and average life expectancy is improved by 15 months in 2040, relative to
today. In 2040, the percentage of the population living in areas respecting the WHO air quality guideline of 10 µgm
3
is almost twice the level achieved under existing and planned policies albeit still only 6 and the number of people experiencing
levels above 35 µgm
3
falls to less than one-quarter. The number of premature deaths related to
outdoor air pollutio sta ilises at today’s le el i 4 , while those related to household air pollution decline further to 560 000. Key measures include
industrial emissions controls and improved efficiency for all pollutants, tighter standards for heavy-duty vehicles to mitigate NO
X
and access to cleaner cooking to mitigate PM
2.5
.
© OECDIEA,
2016
170 World Energy Outlook 2016 |
Special Report
The energy and air quality context
Over the past two-and-a-half decades, China has undergone a process of rapid industrialisation and urbanisation. The share of the population living in urban areas has
doubled to around 55, while average per-capita income has grown more than seven- times. Energy demand today is almost 3.5 times higher than it was in 1990. More than 90
of the increase was met by fossil fuels. Coal now generates three-out-of-four units of electricity. Coal and oil are responsible for around two-out-of-three units of energy
consumed in the industry and transformation sector with much of the remainder being electricity; and oil constitutes more than 90 of the energy consumed in the transport
sector. In the buildings sector, coal and oil satisfy only one-quarter of total energy demand, but another 38 comes from the use of biomass.
Growth in energy demand has gone hand-in-hand with economic transformation and social development; but there has been a high cost for the environment. According to the
Ministry of Environmental Protection, only 8 of the 74 major Chinese cities that are currently subject to air quality monitoring met the national standard for clean air in 2014
Ministry of Environmental Protection, 2015. In 2013, just three cities met the standard. The main industrial centres of the country, in particular Beijing, Tianjin and the Hebei
province, register the highest emissions intensities across all major pollutants.
The relationship between energy and air quality in China has followed the pattern seen in most industrialised countries: the increase in sulfur dioxide SO
2
and nitrogen oxides NO
X
emissions has largely tracked rising coal use in the industry and power sectors, while the proportionate contribution of the buildings sector to particulate matter PM
2.5 1
emissions has been in gradual decline since the mid-1990s, as reliance on the use of traditional
biomass declined modestly and emissions from the industry and transformation sector rose. The s ale a d speed of Chi a’s growth has resulted i a sig ifi a t deterioration of air
quality, with the total level of polluting air emissions well above that of other countries in the region. We estimate that today, only about 3 of the population in China enjoys a level
of exposure to PM
2.5
concentrations that complies with the World Health Organization WHO guideline, while around 55 of the population is exposed to levels even greater
than the most modest WHO interim target-1. Around 1 million premature deaths are attributable to outdoor air pollution today, while an additional 1.2 million premature
deaths are attributable to the level of household air pollution. Overall, the average Chinese life expectancy is shortened by 25 months as a result of poor air quality.
The Chinese government has long recognised the gravity of this issue air pollution prevention and control efforts date back to the 1970s and is now taking serious efforts to
address it. A landmark initiative was the Action Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and
1
Fine particulate matter with particle diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres.
© OECDIEA,
2016
Chapter 7 | China
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