Feasibility of the 2 target
36
a moving average over the previous three years.
21
The latter provides more insight into recent fluctuations in annual savings. A margin of
uncertainty is assumed in the national saving figure of about 0.3 percentage point per annum Gerdes Boonekamp, 2009.
The three-year average figure 3, light grey bars shows that the calculated savings differ from year to year Gerdes Boonekamp, 2009.
The fluctuations are due in part to the margin of uncertainty and in part to actual differences in the saving rate explained orally by ECN, February
2010. Absolute volume of energy saved
In the period 1995-2007 energy consumption increased by 400 PJ less than it would have done without the energy saving measures Gerdes,
2010. Figure 4 shows that temperature-adjusted energy consumption
22
increased by 307 PJ in 1995-2007. This represents an increase of more than 11 Gerdes Boonekamp, 2009.
Figure 4 National energy consumption In comparison with consumption without saving measures and
with energy saving according to the policy targets, 1995-2007
21
At the close of data collection May 2010 the most recent monitoring data related to 2007.
22
Annual energy consumption is influenced by chance weather conditions. Less heating is needed in a warm winter and more cooling in a hot summer. Since chance events influence the
interpretation and explanation of the trends, the data are corrected for temperature. Feedstocks see section 2.3.2 are not included in the calculation of corrected energy consumption ECN,
2010.
37
Figure 4 shows that if no savings had been made after 1995, energy consumption would have risen by more than 700 PJ by 2007, i.e. by more
than 25. The energy saving is about 400 PJ, as shown in figure 5 Gerdes, 2010. The volume of energy saved is nearly as great as all the
domestic energy consumed in the Netherlands in 2008 CBS et al., 2010a.
Figure 5 Energy consumption in the Netherlands and energy saved in PJ
If the energy targets set for 1995-2007 had been achieved, energy consumption in 2007 would have been just 100 PJ higher than in 1995,
an increase of 4. The consumption avoided would have been about 600 PJ. Since the saving targets were not achieved in 1995-2007, actual
energy consumption was 307 PJ higher in 2007, an increase of 11 on 1995.