Feasibility of the 2 target

36 a moving average over the previous three years. 21 The latter provides more insight into recent fluctuations in annual savings. A margin of uncertainty is assumed in the national saving figure of about 0.3 percentage point per annum Gerdes Boonekamp, 2009. The three-year average figure 3, light grey bars shows that the calculated savings differ from year to year Gerdes Boonekamp, 2009. The fluctuations are due in part to the margin of uncertainty and in part to actual differences in the saving rate explained orally by ECN, February 2010. Absolute volume of energy saved In the period 1995-2007 energy consumption increased by 400 PJ less than it would have done without the energy saving measures Gerdes, 2010. Figure 4 shows that temperature-adjusted energy consumption 22 increased by 307 PJ in 1995-2007. This represents an increase of more than 11 Gerdes Boonekamp, 2009. Figure 4 National energy consumption In comparison with consumption without saving measures and with energy saving according to the policy targets, 1995-2007 21 At the close of data collection May 2010 the most recent monitoring data related to 2007. 22 Annual energy consumption is influenced by chance weather conditions. Less heating is needed in a warm winter and more cooling in a hot summer. Since chance events influence the interpretation and explanation of the trends, the data are corrected for temperature. Feedstocks see section 2.3.2 are not included in the calculation of corrected energy consumption ECN, 2010. 37 Figure 4 shows that if no savings had been made after 1995, energy consumption would have risen by more than 700 PJ by 2007, i.e. by more than 25. The energy saving is about 400 PJ, as shown in figure 5 Gerdes, 2010. The volume of energy saved is nearly as great as all the domestic energy consumed in the Netherlands in 2008 CBS et al., 2010a. Figure 5 Energy consumption in the Netherlands and energy saved in PJ If the energy targets set for 1995-2007 had been achieved, energy consumption in 2007 would have been just 100 PJ higher than in 1995, an increase of 4. The consumption avoided would have been about 600 PJ. Since the saving targets were not achieved in 1995-2007, actual energy consumption was 307 PJ higher in 2007, an increase of 11 on 1995.

2.2.1 Energy saved as a result of policy

The actual saving is due in part to autonomous developments and in part to the governments energy saving policy. Autonomous savings are those that are achieved regardless of policy, for example when old machinery is replaced with new, more efficient machinery or because old, poorly insulated homes and offices are demolished and replaced with new ones. An increase in fuel prices is also an incentive to cut energy consumption. It cannot be said with certainty what part of the energy saving is due to government policy. There have been many forms of energy saving policy over many years and their effects can feed through for quite some time. In studies by ECN, more than half the energy saving achieved in 1990- 2003 is due to government policy Boonekamp et al., 2005, p. 15;