Relationship between climate goals
85
energy consumption is lower. According to the study above, the adopted policy will lead to primary energy consumption in 2020 of approximately
3,394 PJ. This is about 50 PJ higher than in 2008. CO
2
reduction It is virtually certain that most energy in 2020 will be generated from
fossil fuels. Yet it is unlikely that carbon capture and storage will be widespread by then. This means that a high level of energy consumption
in 2020 will still be accompanied by a high level of CO
2
emissions. Energy saving has been an important driver to reduce CO
2
emissions. Energy savings are considered internationally to be the most cost
effective means to reduce fossil energy consumption and thus CO
2
emissions IEA, 2009; McKinsey Company, 2009; VROM Council General Energy
Council, 2004, p. 13. Calculations by the ECN indicate that CO
2
emissions in the Netherlands in the period 1990-2003 were reduced by 33 Mtonnes Boonekamp et al., 2005. Of these 33 Mtonnes, 30 Mtonnes
were due to energy savings. The remaining 3 Mtonnes were due to the use of renewable energy.
In the period 1995 –2007, energy savings cut the increase in energy
consumption by nearly 400 PJ. This 400 PJ is equal to the emission of approximately 25 Mtonnes less CO
2
.
57
In this scenario, the national greenhouse gas emission in 2004 would have been lower than the Kyoto
target.
58
The actual emission in 2007 was slightly higher see figure 12.
57
Different energy sources have different CO
2
emissions. The figures on avoided consumption presented here are calculated on the national mix of 42 natural gas, 40 oil and 11 coal.
58
Under the Kyoto Treaty, the Netherlands is required to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 6 per annum in the period 2008-2012 relative to 1990.
86
Figure 12 Greenhouse gas emission, 1999-2008
Until the end of 2010, the national target for the reduction of CO
2
emissions was 30 of the 1990 emission. Part of the greenhouse gas emission in the Netherlands is produced by sectors that are subject to the
EU CO
2
emissions trading system. These sectors include power stations, refineries and the greater part of the manufacturing sector. The main
sectors that are not subject to the emissions trading system are transport, the built environment and a large proportion of the agriculture
sector. Since additional emission reductions in the sectors participating in the
trading system in the Netherlands do not contribute to the European target, the government decided to recognise a 21 reduction as avoided
emission and required no further reductions from those sectors. The difference between the Dutch and the European targets must be made up
by the sectors that are not subject to the emissions trading system. To achieve the 30 target, these sectors smaller companies,
households, trade, services, the public sector and transport will have to reduce their CO
2
emissions by more than 30, namely by 39.7. This will not be easy. Firstly, these sectors are not expected to achieve
the 30 reduction target. Secondly, the interaction between the participating and non-participating sectors will negate a large part of the
actual saving see chapter 4.