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Figure 12 Greenhouse gas emission, 1999-2008
Until the end of 2010, the national target for the reduction of CO
2
emissions was 30 of the 1990 emission. Part of the greenhouse gas emission in the Netherlands is produced by sectors that are subject to the
EU CO
2
emissions trading system. These sectors include power stations, refineries and the greater part of the manufacturing sector. The main
sectors that are not subject to the emissions trading system are transport, the built environment and a large proportion of the agriculture
sector. Since additional emission reductions in the sectors participating in the
trading system in the Netherlands do not contribute to the European target, the government decided to recognise a 21 reduction as avoided
emission and required no further reductions from those sectors. The difference between the Dutch and the European targets must be made up
by the sectors that are not subject to the emissions trading system. To achieve the 30 target, these sectors smaller companies,
households, trade, services, the public sector and transport will have to reduce their CO
2
emissions by more than 30, namely by 39.7. This will not be easy. Firstly, these sectors are not expected to achieve
the 30 reduction target. Secondly, the interaction between the participating and non-participating sectors will negate a large part of the
actual saving see chapter 4.
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Renewable energy Achievement of the renewable energy target will also depend on the
absolute energy consumption in 2020. If primary energy consumption in 2020 is indeed 3,394 PJ, 678 PJ of renewable energy will be required in
2020 to achieve the original target of 20 renewables. The lower European target will require 475 PJ. By way of comparison, 123 PJ of
renewable energy was generated in 2008, about 4 of national demand CBS, 2009.
Most renewable energy options, however, are not yet viable without financial support. The share of renewable energy in 2020 will therefore
depend largely on the policy and availability of funding to back up the investments Daniëls et al., 2010.
6.3 Feasibility of the European obligations
Under the policies adopted, the probability of the Netherlands fulfilling its European obligations to reduce CO
2
emissions is less than 50 Daniëls et al., 2010, p. 132.
Only emissions by sectors not participating in the trading system count towards the European CO
2
reduction target. Emissions that are subject to the trading system are subject to the emission cap, which is not allocated
to the member states. To achieve the European target, non-participating sectors in the Netherlands must reduce their CO
2
emissions by 16 relative to 2005 Daniëls et al., 2010, p. 132. The probability of the
Netherlands achieving this European target is less than 50 even if the proposed policy is successfully carried out.
Implementation of all proposed policy will be necessary to approach the European renewable energy target but the margin of uncertainty is so
great that there is no guarantee Daniëls et al., 2010, p. 132.
6.4 Conflicts between policy goals
There are also conflicts between climate and energy policy goals. We provide examples below.
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Replacing coal with natural gas reduces CO
2
emissions and is cleaner but reduces supply security. Since coal reserves are far larger and distributed
differently across the world than gas reserves, replacing coal with natural gas does not contribute to supply security Daniëls et al., 2006.
A second example relates to the liberalisation of the energy market. Liberalisation is not a climate policy instrument but is intended to
increase competition between energy companies and give more freedom of choice to consumers. Liberalisation is directed at the affordability of
energy but it has led to dissavings, i.e. to lower energy efficiency in the energy sector. Previous energy yields are no longer being achieved
Harmsen Menkveld, 2005; Seebregts, 2009; Seebregts Volkers, 2005. Before liberalisation, economic optimisation was concerned chiefly
with the efficient use of energy. Since liberalisation, producers have made investments and used their power stations to achieve economic
optimisation at group level, giving priority to investment costs and availability.
A final example relates to the use of CO
2
storage. If CO
2
can be stored in the ground, there is less urgency to use energy more efficiently. CO
2
storage is even contrary to the energy saving target. The CO
2
storage process itself costs energy. A power station fitted with a CO
2
storage system uses roughly 10 to 40 more energy than a power station
without a CO
2
storage system IPCC, 2005, p. 4. Inconsistent targets might be the underlying reason for contradictory
policies. An example of a contradictory policy was addressed at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh. In the final declaration, the participants stated that
subsidies for fossil fuels distorted the market and held back investments in clean energy. At the summit, the participants had called for the ending
of fossil fuel subsidies in the medium term and their replacement with other forms of income support if necessary G20, 2009. The Netherlands
was present at this G20 meeting and signed the declaration of intent.
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Appendix 1 Terms and definitions
Autonomous saving
A saving that is not induced by policy, for example because outdated machinery is replaced with newer, more efficient machinery or because
old and poorly insulated houses and offices are demolished and replaced with new ones. The increase in fuel prices also provides an incentive to
use less energy. It can be concluded from the literature that the autonomous saving is between 0.8 and 1 per annum.
CO
2
emissions trading system
A system for companies in the EU to buy and sell allowances to emit greenhouse gases. The allowances held by the companies form the cap on
the total emission. If a participating company emits less CO
2
it can sell its unused allowances to other participants; if a company wants to emit more
CO
2
it must buy additional allowances. The total emissions by all companies participating in the system therefore cannot be higher than
the cap. Emission allowances will increasingly be allocated to companies on the basis of supply and demand after an initial period in which they
were allocated free of charge. Not all companies participate in the system. Those that do are responsible for 40 of total CO
2
emissions in Europe.
Cost effectiveness
The ratio between the benefits attributable to an instrument and the costs incurred to achieve those benefits. We use the generally accepted method
of expressing cost effectiveness in money per unit of energy saved, which means that the higher the cost effectiveness the less favourable an
instrument is. In this report, cost effectiveness is calculated on the basis of national costs, not only the costs incurred by the government but also
those incurred by energy consumers.
Dissaving
A negative energy saving.
Energy efficiency
An energy saving due to the more efficient use of energy per unit of production, per kilometre driven or per square metre of office space. This
is the definition used in the Energy Saving Monitoring Protocol. In the Protocol, an energy saving is the performance of the same activities or
the fulfilment of the same functions with less energy. Since an energy
