35
billion for a 1.8 saving Menkveld Wijngaart, 2007, p. 20. According to the researchers themselves, however, these calculations are very
sensitive to the assumptions made on the saving potential.
19
2.2 Results in 1995-2007
Actual annual energy saving rate In 1995-2007 the average energy saving achieved in the Netherlands was
1.1 per annum. In 2000-2007 the average energy saving was 0.8 per annum Gerdes Boonekamp, 2009; Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency, 2009. In the preceding period 1995 –2000 the rate
had been higher: about 1.4 on average per annum Boonekamp et al., 2004a. As can be seen from figure 3, the actual saving rate throughout
the entire 1995-2007 period with the exception of 1999 was lower than the policy target applicable at the time.
Figure 3 National targets and actual savings, 1995-2007
The Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands ECN calculates the actual energy saving each year on behalf of the Ministry of EZ under the
auspices of the Energy Saving Monitoring Platform.
20
For methodological reasons, the saving is calculated and presented in two ways: as an
average over an increasing number of years since a reference date and a s
19
According to the report cited, a slightly more generous estimate of the saving potential in the transport sector would reduce the estimated cost to €2 billion.
20
This platform is made up of ECN, NL Agency, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and Statistics Netherlands.
36
a moving average over the previous three years.
21
The latter provides more insight into recent fluctuations in annual savings. A margin of
uncertainty is assumed in the national saving figure of about 0.3 percentage point per annum Gerdes Boonekamp, 2009.
The three-year average figure 3, light grey bars shows that the calculated savings differ from year to year Gerdes Boonekamp, 2009.
The fluctuations are due in part to the margin of uncertainty and in part to actual differences in the saving rate explained orally by ECN, February
2010. Absolute volume of energy saved
In the period 1995-2007 energy consumption increased by 400 PJ less than it would have done without the energy saving measures Gerdes,
2010. Figure 4 shows that temperature-adjusted energy consumption
22
increased by 307 PJ in 1995-2007. This represents an increase of more than 11 Gerdes Boonekamp, 2009.
Figure 4 National energy consumption In comparison with consumption without saving measures and
with energy saving according to the policy targets, 1995-2007
21
At the close of data collection May 2010 the most recent monitoring data related to 2007.
22
Annual energy consumption is influenced by chance weather conditions. Less heating is needed in a warm winter and more cooling in a hot summer. Since chance events influence the
interpretation and explanation of the trends, the data are corrected for temperature. Feedstocks see section 2.3.2 are not included in the calculation of corrected energy consumption ECN,
2010.
