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6 Consequences for climate and
energy policy
In this chapter we consider the implications of the underachievement of the energy saving target for the other national and EU goals of climate
and energy policy.
6.1 Relationship between climate goals
In the period covered by this audit, Dutch climate policy had three targets for 2020: 20 improvement in energy efficiency, 30 reduction in CO
2
emissions relative to 1990 and 20 share of renewable energy. These targets are closely related to each other. Both energy efficiency energy
saving and renewable energy will reduce the need for fossil fuel. This will in turn lead to a reduction in emissions of CO
2
and other substances. Additional measures for the cleanest possible combustion or storage of
CO
2
will reduce emissions further. This sequence is shown in figure 11.
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Figure 11 Relationship between climate goals
Energy saving plays a role in two steps in the transition, in reducing demand for energy and in using scarce energy resources as economically
and cleanly as possible.
6.2 Feasibility of the Dutch goals
The most recent study of the development of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the Netherlands until 2020 was issued in
April 2010 Daniëls et al., 2010. This study takes account of the economic and financial crisis since 2008. None of the scenarios
considered in this study leads to the achievement of a single climate target by 2020
– not even the most favourable scenario in which all proposed policy is implemented.
The government has not set a target for the reduction of absolute energy demand. Absolute energy consumption in 2020 is important because the
energy saving and renewable energy targets are set as a percentage of energy consumption in 2020. The targets are easier to achieve if absolute
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energy consumption is lower. According to the study above, the adopted policy will lead to primary energy consumption in 2020 of approximately
3,394 PJ. This is about 50 PJ higher than in 2008. CO
2
reduction It is virtually certain that most energy in 2020 will be generated from
fossil fuels. Yet it is unlikely that carbon capture and storage will be widespread by then. This means that a high level of energy consumption
in 2020 will still be accompanied by a high level of CO
2
emissions. Energy saving has been an important driver to reduce CO
2
emissions. Energy savings are considered internationally to be the most cost
effective means to reduce fossil energy consumption and thus CO
2
emissions IEA, 2009; McKinsey Company, 2009; VROM Council General Energy
Council, 2004, p. 13. Calculations by the ECN indicate that CO
2
emissions in the Netherlands in the period 1990-2003 were reduced by 33 Mtonnes Boonekamp et al., 2005. Of these 33 Mtonnes, 30 Mtonnes
were due to energy savings. The remaining 3 Mtonnes were due to the use of renewable energy.
In the period 1995 –2007, energy savings cut the increase in energy
consumption by nearly 400 PJ. This 400 PJ is equal to the emission of approximately 25 Mtonnes less CO
2
.
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In this scenario, the national greenhouse gas emission in 2004 would have been lower than the Kyoto
target.
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The actual emission in 2007 was slightly higher see figure 12.
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Different energy sources have different CO
2
emissions. The figures on avoided consumption presented here are calculated on the national mix of 42 natural gas, 40 oil and 11 coal.
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Under the Kyoto Treaty, the Netherlands is required to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 6 per annum in the period 2008-2012 relative to 1990.
