Households Emission Status iccsr synthesis report 2010

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9.2 Mitigation Potentials

The mitigation of transport emissions can be achieved through a comprehensive strategy as follows:

1. Avoid or reduce the need to travel through developing land use and urban development

patterns that allow people to access essential facilities without excessive travel.

2. Shift travel to, or at least retain the share of carbon efficient travel modes, which include

non-motorized transport e.g., cycling and walking, public transport, and water based transport.

3. Improve the energy and carbon efficiency of motorized vehicles through technological

improvements on engines and fuels. Exercise on some policy measures has been carried out using the multimodal-multiuser transport network model, which might take account of the activity intensity trips of passenger and freight, as well as the effect of transport infrastructure capacity effect of congestions. The CO 2 estimation from the transport sector using this model is differentiating the interurban and urban transport network based on the following proportions in terms of total trip length. Table 11 Estimation of CO 2 Proportion based on Travel Type in Indonesia 2006 data Type Remarks CO 2 Proportion 2006 2029 Regional Trips Based on estimation using transport network model and national origin destination data 80.1 63.3 Urban Trips Derived from Jabodetabek transport network and up scaled for all 23 main cities in Indonesia 15.8 24.8 Others Local transport and idle vehicle 4.1 12.0 Total 100.0 100.0 40 These CO 2 proportions will be used as the basis for distributing the total CO 2 emissions from previous data and predictions. Furthermore, the transport network model is employed to assess the effect of some measures that apply to the network and the demand. The main advantage of this approach is that the subject of the analysis is the trip itself, not merely the vehicle. There are several scenarios that project CO 2 emissions of transportation in the future, as follows: ƒ Business as usual ƒ Modal split ƒ Transport Demand Management ƒ Integrating Transport and Land Use Planning ƒ Better Combustion Engines ƒ Better Fuels Each of the scenarios is quantified to find out total CO 2 emissions and their costs. The CO 2 emissions of most scenarios tend to keep on growing, except the Land Use-Transport policy program. But this policy program is estimated to be very limited in its implementation, creating an insignificant amount of CO 2 reductions. The better combustion engine and better fuel scenarios also promise significant CO 2 reductions, yet again; their limited implementation has lessened the policy program’s effectiveness. It is discovered that the most effective policy program in reducing CO 2 emissions is Modal Shifting 20.2 less, compared to BaU scenario. This policy also provides a significant improvement in transport network performance co-benefit, with improvements of 19.9 better than the BaU scenario in the year 2029. The other policy programs, particularly the Better Combustion Engine and Better Fuel options are not expected to reduce the number of vehicles on the road, and hence will not contribute to a reduction in traffic congestion.