SRI Area Development Results and Discussion

62

6.3.2. SRI Area Development

Lands paddy fields with technical irrigation are suitable for applying SRI method or technique. This is because this technique requires good water management where the availability of water at any time is important although less water is needed. Therefore, only the land or ‘sawah’ with technical irrigation was used in planning the SRI area development. The available data of land with technical irrigation from the local bureau of statistics indicates that there is a tendency of decreasing from year to year Table 6.5. One possible cause is the conversion of land-use function from farming land to real estate and others. Table 6.5. Land paddy fields with technical irrigation in the District of Sukabumi Year Land with Technical Irrigation ha 2003 5790 2004 5159 2005 5159 2006 3630 2007 3746 2008 3867 Source: BPS Kabupaten Sukabumi 2006-20009 Based on the data in Table 6.5, the trend of the decreasing land area with technical irrigation from 2003 through 2020 was predicted using the Verhulst model Equation 6.1. The result of the prediction is presented in Table 6.6 which indicates the prediction has an error of 892 and R values of 0.9119. The result of the detail calculation data is presented in Appendix 6.2. The result of the prediction indicated that the available irrigated land in 2020 would be about a little bit more than 2789 ha as depicted in Table 6.6. This was the maximum available technically irrigated land area possibly to be used for SRI farming method. It meant that the potential SRI area development planned from 2003 through 2020 was started from zero and end up to about 2789 ha. Based on the social factor previously discussed and other technical factors, it was assumed that the accumulation of land area development was in the form of non- linear or polynomial curve, rather than linear one. 63 Table 6.6. Trend of change of paddy field area with technical irrigation Year Data ha Verhulst Parameters Values 2003 5790 5790 γ 0.100 2004 5159 5145 Po 5,790 2005 5159 4674 P∞ 2,500 2006 3630 4317 Error 892 2007 3746 4038 R 0.9119 2008 3867 3814 2009 3632 2010 3482 2011 3357 2012 3251 2013 3160 2014 3083 2015 3016 2016 2958 2017 2907 2018 2862 2019 2823 2020 2789 Figure 6.1 depicts the trend of the decreasing area of land with technical irrigation and possible SRI land area development from 2003 through 2020. The possible SRI land area development curve illustrates the cumulative land area development with an increasing rate, which is a normal trend in the real world. Using the SRI development curve of Figure 6.1, the cumulative land area data can be calculated. The land area data for the predicted available land with technical irrigation and the area of SRI land development are presented in Table 6.7. From the calculated SRI development area data Table 6.7, the required organic fertilizer can be determined based on the amount of fertilizer required per hectare of organic rice farmed. Table 6.8 presents the results of the calculation of available and required organic fertilizer. The required fertilizer used in the calculation is based on application of 10 tonha of compost made from animal wastes and paddy straw. As stated in the previous section, the calculated compost production only used 50 of the available animal beef and dairy cattle wastes with 65 rendement. Production of cattle manures was based on the capacity of 4.4 tonheadyear. The calculation of paddy straw compost used straw production of 1.4 times the paddy yield per hectare with 60 rendement. 64 Available Technical Irrigated Land and SRI Development y = 9.6321x 2 - 38585x + 4E+07 y = 13.219x 2 - 53330x + 5E+07 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Year L a n d A re a h a Available Technical Irrigated Land Area SRI Land Area Development Field Data Trend of SRI Land Area Development Trend of Available Technical Irrigated Land Area Figure 6.1. Trend of the decreasing area of land with technical irrigation upper curve and the possible SRI land area development lower curve from 2003 through 2020 in the District of Sukabumi Data from Table 6.8 can be used to illustrate the supply and demand of organic fertilizer for SRI Rice farming. In other words, it can be seen how is the sustainability of SRI organic rice farming in the District of Sukabumi in the sense that the supply always higher than the demand each year. Figure 6.2 illustrates further the supply and demand of compost each year. The supply of compost from animal wastes can be increased with the utilization of other sources of organic fertilizers such as household and industrial organic wastes and of course the wastes of other small and medium size of animal as can be seen in Table 6.4. 65 Table 6.7. Data of land paddy field with technical irrigation Year Trend of Predicted Available Irrigated Land Area Developed SRI Land Area ha ha 2003 5790 2004 5145 10 2005 4674 40 2006 4317 89 2007 4038 157 2008 3814 245 2009 3632 352 2010 3482 478 2011 3357 623 2012 3251 787 2013 3160 971 2014 3083 1174 2015 3016 1397 2016 2958 1638 2017 2907 1899 2018 2862 2179 2019 2823 2479 2020 2789 2797 Table 6.8. Results of the calculation of available and required organic fertilizer Yea r Crop . Area ha Prod. tonha Available Organic Fertlizer Total Supply ton Total Deman d ton Straw ton Comp. ton AOW ton Comp. ton 2003 - - - - 169276.9 60939.7 60939.7 - 2004 21 4.0 41.7 25.0 173011.6 62284.2 62309.2 208.7 2005 80 4.0 160.5 96.3 176758.1 63632.9 63729.2 802.7 2006 178 6.2 552.4 331.4 180504.6 64981.7 65313.1 1782.0 2007 315 8.7 1368.7 821.2 184245.2 66328.3 67149.5 3146.5 2008 490 9.9 2423.7 1454.2 187979.9 67672.8 69127.0 4896.4 2009 703 10.2 3586.1 2151.6 191702.8 69013.0 71164.6 7031.5 2010 955 10.4 4967.0 2980.2 195413.9 70349.0 73329.2 9551.9 2011 1246 10.4 6478.0 3886.8 199107.3 71678.6 75565.4 12457.6 2012 1575 10.4 8189.3 4913.6 202783.0 73001.9 77915.4 15748.6 2013 1942 10.4 10100.9 6060.6 206441.0 74318.8 80379.3 19424.8 2014 2349 10.4 12212.9 7327.8 210063.6 75622.9 82950.6 23486.4 2015 2793 10.4 14525.3 8715.2 213662.6 76918.5 85633.7 27933.2 2016 3277 10.4 17038.0 10222.8 217232.1 78203.6 88426.3 32765.3 2017 3798 10.4 19751.0 11850.6 220766.2 79475.8 91326.4 37982.7 2018 4359 10.4 22664.4 13598.6 224264.9 80735.4 94334.0 43585.4 2019 4957 10.4 25778.2 15466.9 227722.3 81980.0 97446.9 49573.4 2020 5595 10.4 29092.2 17455.3 231138.4 83209.8 100665.2 55946.6 66 ORGANIC FERTILIZER COMPOST - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Year A m o u n t t o n Total Demand Total Supply Figure 6.2. Supply and demand of compost each year

6.4. Conclusion