Results of Sensitivity Analysis

49

5.2.3. Profit Calculation

Profit calculation of the rice organic production was done by first optimizing the components of the productivity as expressed in Equation 1. Various calculation of profit was conducted by setting up various levels of production. The rice production was assumed to be saved until harvest time without any pest and disease attack.

5.3. Results and Discussion

5.3.1. Results of Sensitivity Analysis

Based on the organic rice production data taken from 20 samples of farmer applying SRI method Table 5.1 in the District of Sukabumi, the productivity model as expressed in Equation 1 was optimized after normalization of the data was done. Table 5.1 also shows the production components or factors of seed S, fertilizer F, labor L and water W either the original or normalized data. The normalized data were used in the sensitivity analysis based on the changes in the production components. This normalization was required since the units of the production component were different, i.e., the values were dimensionless so that they could be plotted together against the yield in one graph. Equations 1 through 8 were used in the sensitivity analysis based on analysis of errors of a linear function. Three levels of percentage change or tolerance 1, 5 and 10 and minimum, mean and maximum values of the production factors were used in the calculation. Among the other three components, seed has the most sensitive percentage change of the yield. Table 5.2 gives the example data for minimum seed tolerance. The values of ∂Y∂SΔSΔY, ∂Y∂FΔFΔY, ∂Y∂LΔLΔY and ∂Y∂WΔWΔY are the percentage change of the components of seed, fertilizer, labor, and water, respectively. As an example, Figure 5.2 illustrates the results of the sensitivity analysis for minimum, average and maximum seed tolerance, with other components F, L and W are set to constant. It is seen from the figure that the water component is not included since its values do not match with the scale of the graph. It is clear that water has the most dominant influence, i.e., 1 50 change in minimum seed gives 0.026 change in seed and 0.999 in water on the production as can be seen in Table 5.2. And so are for the 5 and 10 changes in minimum seed value. It is seen from Figure 5.1 that the model is sensitive towards the change in the variables or components involved. The complete data and figures as the results of this analysis are presented in Appendix 5.2. Table 5.1. Organic rice production data of farmers applying SRI in District of Sukabumi No. Original Data Normalized Data Ym S kg F ton L m- days W 1000m 3 Y ton Sn Fn Ln Wn Yn,d Yn, m 1 7.50 7.50 225 3.22 8.00 0.45 0.23 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 8.01 2 6.40 7.20 220 3.22 8.00 0.38 0.22 0.73 0.76 0.77 0.77 8.01 3 7.50 8.00 225 3.31 8.20 0.45 0.24 0.75 0.78 0.79 0.79 8.20 4 7.06 7.65 265 3.07 7.65 0.42 0.23 0.88 0.73 0.74 0.74 7.66 5 6.67 6.67 240 3.22 8.00 0.40 0.20 0.80 0.76 0.77 0.77 8.01 6 7.08 7.00 300 3.19 7.92 0.43 0.21 1.00 0.75 0.76 0.76 7.93 7 10.00 16.00 160 3.22 8.00 0.60 0.48 0.53 0.76 0.77 0.77 8.00 8 7.50 10.00 225 3.65 9.00 0.45 0.30 0.75 0.86 0.87 0.87 8.99 9 3.33 6.67 240 3.22 8.00 0.20 0.20 0.80 0.76 0.77 0.77 8.01 10 5.00 3.33 183 2.97 7.40 0.30 0.10 0.61 0.70 0.71 0.71 7.41 11 7.14 18.57 243 4.23 10.39 0.43 0.56 0.81 1.00 1.00 1.00 10.35 12 10.00 8.00 170 3.22 8.00 0.60 0.24 0.57 0.76 0.77 0.77 8.00 13 16.67 33.33 283 2.66 6.67 1.00 1.00 0.94 0.63 0.64 0.64 6.68 14 14.29 0.36 243 2.25 5.71 0.86 0.01 0.81 0.53 0.55 0.55 5.72 15 6.67 0.67 227 3.36 8.33 0.40 0.02 0.76 0.79 0.80 0.80 8.33 16 8.33 0.42 300 2.04 5.21 0.50 0.01 1.00 0.48 0.50 0.50 5.21 17 7.14 1.00 243 1.53 4.00 0.43 0.03 0.81 0.36 0.39 0.38 3.96 18 8.33 8.33 283 1.84 4.75 0.50 0.25 0.94 0.44 0.46 0.46 4.74 19 12.50 12.50 200 2.80 7.00 0.75 0.38 0.67 0.66 0.67 0.68 7.01 20 7.14 8.57 243 3.55 8.79 0.43 0.26 0.81 0.84 0.85 0.85 8.78 Minimum, Mean and Maximum Data Min 3.33 0.36 160.00 1.53 4.00 0.2 0.0 1 0.5 3 0.3 6 Erro r 3.015E- 05 Mea n 8.31 8.59 235.89 2.99 7.45 0.5 0.2 6 0.7 9 0.7 1 R 2 0.9990 Max 16.67 33.33 300.00 4.23 10.39 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 51 Table 5.2. Example data for minimum seed tolerance Tolerance ∂Y∂SΔSΔY ∂Y∂FΔFΔY ∂Y∂LΔLΔY ∂Y∂WΔWΔY Sn 1 0.026 0.020 0.194 99.999806 0.020 0.002 0.155 99.999878 0.014 0.001 0.108 99.999941 Sn 5 0.128 0.020 0.194 99.999727 0.101 0.002 0.155 99.999830 0.071 0.001 0.108 99.999917 Sn 10 0.256 0.020 0.194 99.999481 0.201 0.002 0.155 99.999678 0.142 0.001 0.108 99.999841

5.3.2. Profit Optimization of Organic Rice Farming