295 pekerja tingkat kualitas dengan latar belakang pendidikan yang rendah BPS,
2004. Keberhasilan negara-negara maju dalam pembangunan berbagai bidang
ditentukan oleh ketersediaan SDM yang berkualitas dan bukan oleh melimpahnya sumberdaya alam. Apabila ditinjau lebih jauh, keberhasilan yang diraih oleh
negara-negara maju tidak terlepas dari kebijakan pembangunan yang dikembangkan pada bidang pendidikan. Dalam hal ini, negara-negara maju
umumnya menempatkan pembangunan pendidikan pada bagian terdepan. Kebijakan ketenagakerjaan, khususnya mengenai upah minimum akan
berpengaruh pada investasi. Umumnya investor akan melihat apakah upah minimum tenaga kerja di Indonesia cukup kompetitif dibandingkan negara lain.
Apabila tuntutan upah tinggi sementara kualitas tenaga kerjanya rendah, akan berdampak pada penurunan perkembangan investasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di
Indonesia. Oleh karena itu dalam menciptakan kondisi pasar kerja yang seimbang, maka kebijakan dibidang pendidikan dan pelatihan yang diselenggarakan oleh
perguruan tinggi dan balai latihan perlu diarahkan agar sesuai dengan kebutuhan pasar kerja. Keberadaan lembaga-lembaga pelatihan ini harus mempunyai
sertifikat yang diakui baik secara nasional atau internasional.
7.3.3. Sintesis Dampak Simulasi Kebijakan Migrasi Internal dan
Internasional Terhadap Pasar Kerja dan Perekonomian Indonesia
Seluruh kegiatan yang dilakukan dalam rangka memperbaiki iklim ketenagakerjaan tidak akan membuahkan hasil tanpa diikuti oleh berbagai upaya
lain. Jumlah penganggur terbuka dan setengah penganggur terpaksa yang demikian besar membutuhkan strategi menyeluruh dalam penciptaan kesempatan
296 kerja. Penciptaan kesempatan kerja, terutama, ditempuh dengan mendorong
percepatan perkembangan sektor riil melalui investasi dan ekspor. Oleh karena itu penciptaan kesempatan kerja, investasi, dan ekspor menjadi salah satu prioritas
dalam rencana kerja pemerintah mendatang. Oleh karena itu berbagai kebijakan reformasi ekonomi dalam rangka mempercepat terwujudnya iklim usaha yang
kondusif bagi perkembangan investasi. Agar prioritas rencana kerja pemerintah dalam rangka menciptakan
kesempatan kerja, dan investasi dapat terselenggara dengan baik, dilakukan berbagai kebijakan, seperti 1 menciptakan kebijakan pasar kerja yang lebih
fleksibel, 2 memperbaiki iklim investasi, 3 memperbaiki harmonisasi peraturan perundangan antara pusat dan daerah, 4 meningkatkan daya saing industri dan
pengembangan ekspor, 5 meningkatkan kualitas tenaga kerja dan kewirausahaan, dan 6 meningkatkan pembangunan infrastruktur.
Infrastruktur merupakan katalis bagi pembangunan. Ketersediaan infrastruktur dapat meningkatkan akses masyarakat terhadap sumberdaya
sehingga dapat meningkatkan produktifitas dan efisiensi yang akhirnya dapat meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Keberadaan infrastruktur merupakan satu
kesatuan yang tidak dapat dipisahkan dan sudah menjadi kebutuhan dasar dalam semua aktivitas masyarakat dan pemerintah.
Namun sejak krisis ekonomi dan pelaksanaan desentralisasi, komposisi pengeluaran sektoral telah mengalami perubahan signifikan. Pengeluaran untuk
infrastruktur masih belum kembali pada tingkat sebelum krisis dan masih berkisar 3 persen dari PDB sejak tahun 2001. Infrastruktur juga memiliki proporsi yang
lebih kecil dibandingkan sektor lain, sementara infrastruktur sangat bertanggung jawab terhadap memburuknya kondisi investasi di Indonesia. Buruknya kondisi
297 infrastruktur tidak hanya dalam kuantitas yang terbatas dibandingkan volume
mobilisasi manusia dan barang, tetapi juga dalam kualitas dari infrastruktur yang sudah ada, khususnya jalan raya.
Belanja infrastruktur di daerah juga dapat dikatakan sangat kecil, walaupun sejak dilakukannya desentralisasiotonomi daerah, pengeluaran
pemerintah daerah untuk infrastruktur meningkat, tetapi pengeluaran pemerintah pusat untuk infrastruktur mengalami penurunan yang drastis. Sehingga
pemerintah daerah hanya menggunakan sebagian kecil dari belanja daerah untuk pengeluaran infrastruktur Tambunan, 2006.
Kondisi ini merupakan suatu persoalan serius, karena walaupun pemerintah pusat meningkatkan porsi pengeluarannya untuk pembangunan
infrastruktur, sementara pemerintah-pemerintah daerah tidak menambah pengeluaran mereka untuk pembangunan infrastruktur di daerah masing-masing,
maka akan terjadi kepincangan pembangunan infrastruktur antara tingkat nasional dan daerah, sehingga akan menghambat investasi dan pembangunan ekonomi
antar wilayah di dalam negeri. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan peningkatan pengeluaran
infrastruktur dan kombinasinya dengan penurunan suku bunga, dan depresiasi nilai tukar diperkirakan menjadi kebijakan cukup baik diterapkan oleh pemerintah
dalam mengatasi masalah distribusi penduduk, pasar kerja dan perekonomian Indonesia pada periode 2009-2012.
Jika pengeluaran infrastruktur meningkat, dan kondisi infrastruktur suatu daerah menjadi lebih baik maka akan meningkatkan minat investor untuk
berinvestasi di daerah tersebut. Selanjutnya peningkatan investasi ini akan membuka kesempatan kerja, dan dapat mengatasi masalah pengangguran.
298 Tingginya investasi juga berdampak pada peningkatan kondisi perekonomian
suatu daerah. Oleh karena itu, baik pemerintah pusat maupun pemerintah daerah diharapkan lebih memperhatikan kondisi infrastruktur dengan meningkatkan porsi
anggaran belanja daerahnya untuk pengeluaran infrastruktur. Hasil simulasi kebijakan migrasi internal melalui peningkatan upah
minimum regional memberi dampak buruk bagi pasar kerja dan perekonomian Indonesia. Namun kondisi ini tidak menurunkan tuntutan pekerja untuk terus
meningkatkan upah minimum. Hal ini dapat dimaklumi karena tingkat upah di Indonesia masih sangat rendah dibandingkan dengan negara-negara lainnya dan
upah tersebut masih belum mampu memenuhi kebutuhan hidup pekerja. Kebijakan peningkatan upah minimum merupakan kebijakan yang
dilematis, di satu sisi peningkatan upah minimum bertujuan untuk memenuhi tuntutan pekerja yang masih menerima upah di bawah kebutuhan hidupnya,
apalagi pada saat ini terjadi kenaikan harga bahan pokok akibat peningkatan harga bahan bakar minyak. Oleh karena itu peningkatan upah minimum ini harus
dilaksanakan. Tetapi pada sisi lain peningkatan upah minimum ini juga akan menurunkan minat investor untuk menanamkan modalnya di Indonesia, sehingga
mengakibatkan penurunan kondisi perekonomian Indonesia. Tanpa kebijakan pendukung, peningkatan upah minimum memang
berdampak buruk pada penurunan kesempatan kerja. Dalam industri padat karya dengan teknologi rendah, elastisitas substitusi antara tenaga kerja dengan faktor
produksi yang lain lebih tinggi. Dalam industri kelas ini buruh mudah digantikan dengan mesin. Sedikit saja ada kejutan yang membuat biaya buruh naik,
perusahaan akan mudah berpikir untuk mengeluarkan pegawainya. Untuk mengurangi akibat yang tidak diinginkan, kebijakan peningkatan upah minimum
299 perlu dibarengi dengan kebijakan lain yang dapat membuka kesempatan kerja
bagi tenaga kerja, seperti kebijakan penurunan suku bunga, dan disisi lain diperlukan juga kebijakan peningkatan kualitas tenaga kerja agar tenaga kerja
dapat lebih mandiri atau menciptakan kesempatan kerja sendiri melalui usaha- usaha kecil. Oleh karena itu perlu ditingkatkan latihan kewirausahaan dengan
dukungan penyediaan modal usaha mandiri dan usaha kecil. Hasil simulasi kebijakan migrasi internasional melalui depresiasi nilai
tukar rupiah, diperkirakan memberikan dampak yang cukup baik bagi peningkatan kuantitas tenaga kerja migran Indonesia untuk bekerja di luar negeri. Sebuah
dilema akan muncul, yaitu kebijakan nilai tukar tidak hanya mencakup masalah stabilitas makro, tetapi juga sangat besar pengaruhnya terhadap insentif ekspor
dan impor. Bagi eksportir dalam hal ini ekspor jasa tenaga kerja migran, harga komoditas ekspor selain dipengaruhi oleh harga di pasar dunia juga dipengaruhi
nilai tukar. Semakin murah harga mata uang rupiah dibandingkan dengan mata uang asing, semakin tinggi tingkat keuntungan eksportir. Oleh karena itu,
semakin terdepresiasi akan semakin tinggi keuntungan eksportir. Namun, upaya mendorong ekspor dengan rupiah yang terdepresiasi kurang menguntungkan bagi
perekonomian secara keseluruhan, terutama dari segi distribusi pendapatan. Efektivitas peningkatan daya saing yang didorong oleh nilai tukar juga hanya
bersifat sementara. Hal ini disebabkan depresiasi akan mendorong laju inflasi. Oleh karena itu, untuk meningkatkan kuantitas migran internasional
Indonesia, tanpa harus mengharapkan depresiasi nilai tukar, maka kebijakan migrasi internasional ini harus dikompensasi dengan peningkatan kualitas tenaga
kerja migran internasional melalui pendidikan dan pelatihan, penurunan biaya modal kerja atau investasi berupa penurunan suku bunga kredit perbankan.
305
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312
LAMPIRAN
313
Lampiran 1. Perkembangan Migrasi Masuk, Migrasi Keluar dan Migrasi Bersih Tahun 1980, 1990, 1995 dan 2000
Migrasi Masuk Migrasi Keluar
Net Migrasi Propinsi
1980 1990 1995 2000 1980 1990 1995 2000 1980 1990 1995 2000
NAD Sumut
Sumbar Riau
Jambi Sumsel
Bengkulu Lampung
DKI Jakarta Jawa Barat
Jateng DI Yogyakrt
Jatim Bali
NTB NTT
Kalbar Kalteng
Kalsel Kaltim
Sulut Sulteng
Sulsel Sultenggara
Maluku Papua
143365 547715
131438 343024
293245 608497
121274
1782703 2565158
963870 336611
175789 433451
63365 51493
38735 104856
140042 142619
292028
88266 184526
108038 104793
124894
93030 193285
452918 216014
681627 470484
932032 251232
1726969 3141214
2319890 509401
264842 564401
122899
67023 46310
196876 240374
272797 600201
87715 286142
219666 236848
184892 261308
228641 552450
260845 884769
482795
1038898 332080
1923928 3371384
3615099 672978
347245 808995
157902
75227 57915
250617 325028
321955 741109
76084 351609
304296 260141
160477 319276
100166 447897
245000 1534849
566153 987157
355048 1485218
3541972 3271882
708308 385117
781590 221722
107605 106053
269722 423014
360324 856251
147091 389634
273875 366817
75540 332015
116010 417659
558804 86540
47151 333024
39019 57664
400767 1487935
3227892 253447
1597851 117828
44487 47534
72358 25086
169561 34059
121231 33912
511725 89957
64725 15559
125563 770093
642908 127672
77299 443384
46720 167565
1052234 1751879
4524988 508215
2479487 221599
96774 99442
116735 47770
201936 63533
153466 48360
641961 107673
95361 30786
181574 1025451
837493 169941
112204 580077
66762 273061
1589285 1891615
5014822 861679
2879389 230149
107261 118625
126834
57448 245595
88646 218240
47793 792342
125403 135727
92356 244314
1336772 937799
164358 149376
525954
73390 385748
1836664 2046279
5354459 784154
3063297 250724
145546 156602
154620
53291 255595
90635 151326
74463 874338
95189 157066
46824 27355
130056 -427366
256484 246094
275473 82255
1725039 2164391
-524065 -2891281
-77658 -1164400
-54463 7006
-8799 32498
114956 -26942
257969 -32965
150614 -403687
14836 60169
77741 67722
-317175 -426894
553955 393549
488648 204512
1559404 2099980
640011 -4015587
-243373 -1915086
-98700 -29751
-53132 80141
192674 70861
536668 -65751
237782 -422295
129175 89531
230522 47067
-473001 -576648
714828 370591
458821 265318
1650867 1782099
1723484 -4341844
-514434 -2070394
-72247 -32034
-60710 123783
267580 76360
652463 -142156
303816 -488046
134738 24750
226920 -144148
-888875 -692799
1370491 416777
416203 281658
1099470 1705303
1225603 -4646151
-399037 -2281707
-29022 -37941
-50549 115102
369723 104729
765616
-4235 315171
-600463 271628
-81526 285191
Sumber : Sensus Penduduk, Badan Pusat Statistik 2001
314
Lampiran 2. Sumber Data No Data
Sumber Data
1.
2. 3.
4
5. 6.
7.
8. 9.
10.
11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16.
17. 18.
19. Migrasi Internal
Migrasi Internasional Upah setiap Propinsi
Upah Minimum Regional setiap Propinsi
Upah di Malaysia, Singapura dan Hongkong
Penawaran Tenaga Kerja setiap Propinsi
Permintaan Tenaga Kerja setiap Propinsi
Pengangguran setiap Propinsi
Penawaran Tenaga Kerja di Malaysia, Singapura dan Hongkong
Permintaan Tenaga Kerja di Malaysia, Singapura dan Hongkong
Pengangguran di Malaysia, Singapura dan Hongkong
Populasi setiap Pulau Kebutuhan Hidup Minimum
Inflasi Suku Bunga
Nilai Tukar Dollar AS, Singapura, Hongkong dan Ringgit Malaysia
GRDP setiap Propinsi
GRDP Perkapita setiap Propinsi GDP Arab Saudi dan Singapura
BPS Hasil Survei Penduduk Antar Sensus SUPAS
BPS Indikator Tingkat Hidup Pekerja
BPS Indikator Tingkat Hidup Pekerja BPS Indikator Tingkat Hidup Pekerja
ILO
http:www.ilo.org.inst BPS Statistik Indonesia, Depnakertrans
BPSStatistik Indonesia, Depnakertrans
BPSStatistik Indonesia, Depnakertrans ADB
http:www.adb.org..stat
ADB http:www.adb.org..stat
ADB http:www.adb.org..stat
BPSStatistik Indonesia, Depnakertrans
BPS Indikator Tingkat Hidup Pekerja BPS Indikator Ekonomi
BPS Indikator Ekonomi, Bank Indonesia
Bank Indonesia Kurs Menteri Keuangan
BPS Statistik Indonesia BPS Statistik Indonesia
ADB http:www.adb.org..stat
315
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan No Data
Sumber Data
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27. 28.
29. 30.
31. Konsumsi Rumah Tangga setiap
Propinsi Total Investasi setiap Propinsi
Nilai Ekspor dan Impor Pengeluaran Pembangunan
Pengeluaran Infrastruktur
Pajak
Devisa dari Tenaga Kerja Migran Internasional
Pendapatan Migran Internal Penduduk Berpendidikan Tinggi
Penduduk Berpendidikan Rendah Luas Lahan yang Sementara tidak
Digunakan Jumlah Industri di Jawa
BPS Statistik Inonesia, Indikator Ekonomi
BPS Statistik Indonesia, Indikator Ekonomi
BPS Statistik Indonesia, Indikator Ekonomi
BPS Statistik Keuangan Daerah TK.I dan Daerah TK.II
BPS Statistik Keuangan Daerah TK.I dan Daerah TK.II
BPS Statistik Keuangan Daerah TK.I dan Daerah TK.II
BPS, Bank Indonesia BPS Statistik Indonesia
BPS Statistik Indonesia BPS Statistik Indonesia
BPS Statistik Indonesia
BPS Jawa Barat, DKI Jakarta, Jawa Tengah, DI Yogyakarta, dan Jawa
Timur dalam Angka
316
Lampiran 3a. Program Estimasi Parameter Model Ekonomi Migrasi Indonesia Menggunakan Prosedur SYSLIN Metode 2SLS
dengan Program SASETS Versi 9
option nodate nonumber; data
D1; set safrida;
LMIGSJ = LAGMIGSJ; LMIGKJ = LAGMIGKJ;
LMIGSLJ = LAGMIGSLJ; LMIGPJ = LAGMIGPJ;
LMIGJS = LAGMIGJS; LMIGJK = LAGMIGJK;
LMIGJSL = LAGMIGJSL; LMIGJP = LAGMIGJP;
LMIGJM = LAGMIGJM; LMIGJAS = LAGMIGJAS;
LMIGJSP = LAGMIGJSP; LMIGJH = LAGMIGJH;
LMIGSM = LAGMIGSM; LMIGSAS = LAGMIGSAS;
LMIGSSP = LAGMIGSSP; LMIGSH = LAGMIGSH;
LMIGKM = LAGMIGKM; LMIGKAS = LAGMIGKAS;
LMIGKSP = LAGMIGKSP; LMIGKH = LAGMIGKH;
LMIGSLM = LAGMIGSLM; LMIGSLAS = LAGMIGSLAS
LMIGSLSP = LAGMIGSLSP; LMIGSLH = LAGMIGSLH;
LMIGPM = LAGMIGPM; LMIGPAS = LAGMIGPAS;
LMIGPSP = LAGMIGPSP; LMIGPH = LAGMIGPH;
LDTKJ = LAGDTKJ; LDTKS = LAGDTKS;
LDTKK = LAGDTKK; LDTKSL = LAGDTKSL;
LDTKP = LAGDTKP; LSTKJ = LAGSTKJ;
LSTKS = LAGSTKS; LSTKK = LAGSTKK;
LSTKSL = LAGSTKSL; LSTKP = LAGSTKP;
LWJ = LAGWJ; LWS = LAGWS;
LWK = LAGWK; LWSL = LAGWSL;
LWP = LAGWP; LCONJ = LAGCONJ;
LCONS = LAGCONS; LCONK = LAGCONK;
LCONSL = LAGCONSL; LCONP = LAGCONP;
LINVJ = LAGINVJ; LINVS = LAGINVS;
LINVK = LAGINVK; LINVSL = LAGINVSL;
LINVP = LAGINVP; LDEVJ = LAGDEVJ;
LDEVS = LAGDEVS; LDEVK = LAGDEVK;
LDEVSL = LAGDEVSL; LDEVP = LAGDEVP;
RUN ;
PROC SYSLIN DATA=D1 2SLS;
ENDOGENOUS MIGSJ MIGKJ MIGSLJ MIGPJ MIGIN MIGJS MIGJK MIGJSL MIGJP MIGOUT MIGJM MIGJAS MIGJSP MIGJH MIGEXJ MIGSM MIGSAS MIGSSP MIGSH
MIGEXS MIGKM MIGKAS MIGKSP MIGKH MIGEXK MIGSLM MIGSLAS MIGSLSP MIGSLH MIGEXSL MIGPM MIGPAS MIGPSP MIGPH MIGEXP DTKJ DTKS DTKK
DTKSL DTKP STKJ STKS STKK STKSL STKP UJ US UK USL UP WJ WS WK WSL WP GRDPJ GRDPS GRDPK GRDPSL GRDPP DICJ DICS DICK DICSL
DICP CONJ CONS CONK CONSL CONP INVJ INVS INVK INVSL INVP DEVJ DEVS DEVK DEVSL DEVP;
INSTRUMENTS MIGLJS MIGLJK MIGLJSL MIGLJP MIGSPLJ MIGKLJ MIGSLLJ MIGPLJ MIGJNL MIGSNL MIGKNL MIGSLNL MIGPNL DIKTS DIKRS DIKTK DIKRK
DIKTSL DIKRSL DIKTP DIKRP INDJ POPJ POPS POPK POPSL POPP UMRJ UMRS UMRK UMRSL UMRP INCMJ INCMS INCMK INCMSL INCMP NTKSP
NTKM NTKH WSP GDPCSP WM GDPCM GDPCAS WH GDPCH DTKSP STKSP DTKM STKM DTKH STKH GEXJ GEXS GEXK GEXSL GEXP GEXIJ GEXIS
GEXIK GEXISL GEXIP KHMJ KHMS KHMK KHMSL KHMP GEXPJ GEXPS GRDPCJ GRDPCS GRDPCK GRDPCSL GRDPCP GEXPK GEXPSL GEXPP INFJ
INFS INFK INFSL INFP EXPJ EXPS EXPK EXPSL EXPP IMPJ IMPS IMPK IMPSL IMPP TAXJ TAXS TAXK TAXSL TAXP SB NTK;
MODEL MIGSJ = WS WJ GRDPS DIKTS DIKRS INDJ DTKJ LMIGSJDW;
MODEL MIGKJ = WK WJ DIKTK GRDPK DIKTK DIKRK INDJ DTKJ LMIGKJDW;
MODEL MIGSLJ = WSL WJ GRDPSL DIKTSL DIKRSL INDJ DTKJ LMIGSLJDW;
MODEL MIGPJ = WP WJ GRDPP DIKTP DIKRP INDJ DTKJ LMIGPJDW;
MODEL MIGJS = WJ WS MIGLJS DTKS GEXIS POPJ GRDPJ UJ LMIGJSDW;
MODEL MIGJK = WJ WK MIGLJK DTKK GEXIK POPJ GRDPJ LMIGJKDW;
MODEL MIGJSL = WJ WSL MIGLJSL DTKSL GEXISL POPJ GRDPJ UJ LMIGJSLDW;
317
MODEL MIGJP = WJ GRDPP MIGLJP DTKP GEXIP POPJ GRDPJ UJ LMIGJPDW;
MODEL MIGJM = WM WJ DTKM STKM GDPCM UJ DIKRJ DIKTJ GRDPJ LMIGJMDW;
MODEL MIGSM = WM WS DTKM STKM GDPCM US DIKRS DIKTS GRDPS LMIGSMDW;
MODEL MIGKM = WM WK DTKM STKM GDPCM UK DIKRK DIKTK GRDPK LMIGKMDW;
MODEL
MIGSLM
= WM1 WSL DTKM STKM GDPCM USL DIKRSL DIKTSL GRDPSL LMIGSLMDW;
MODEL MIGPM = WM WP DTKM STKM GDPCM UP DIKRP DIKTP GRDPP LMIGPMDW;
MODEL MIGJAS = WJ GDPCAS UJ DIKRJ DIKTJ GRDPJ LMIGJASDW;
MODEL MIGSAS = WS GDPCAS US DIKRS DIKTS GRDPS LMIGSASDW;
MODEL MIGKAS = WK GDPCAS UK DIKRK DIKTK GRDPK LMIGKASDW;
MODEL MIGSLAS = WSL GDPCAS USL DIKRSL DIKTSL GRDPSL LMIGSLASDW;
MODEL MIGPAS = WP GDPCAS UP DIKRP DIKTP GRDPP LMIGPASDW;
MODEL MIGJSP = WJ WSP DTKSP STKSP GDPCSP UJ DIKRJ DIKTJ GRDPJ LMIGJSPDW;
MODEL MIGSSP = WS WSP DTKSP STKSP GDPCSP US DIKRS DIKTS GRDPS LMIGSSPDW;
MODEL MIGKSP = WK WSP DTKSP STKSP GDPCSP UK DIKRK DIKTK GRDPK LMIGKSPDW;
MODEL MIGSLSP = WSL WSP DTKSP STKSP GDPCSP USL DIKRSL DIKTSL GRDPSL LMIGSLSPDW;
MODEL MIGPSP = WP WSP DTKSP STKSP GDPCSP UP DIKRP DIKTP GRDPP LMIGPSPDW;
MODEL MIGJH = WH WJ DTKH STKH GDPCH UJ DIKRJ DIKTJ GRDPJ LMIGJHDW;
MODEL MIGSH = WH WS DTKH STKH GDPCH US DIKRS DIKTS GRDPS LMIGSHDW;
MODEL MIGKH = WH WK DTKH STKH GDPCH UK DIKRK DIKTK GRDPK LMIGKHDW;
MODEL MIGSLH =
WH WSL DTKH STKH GDPCH USL DIKRSL DIKTSL GRDPSL LMIGSLHDW;
MODEL MIGPH = WH WP DTKH STKH GDPCH UP DIKRP DIKTP GRDPP LMIGPHDW;
MODEL DTKJ = WJ INDJ INVJ GEXPJ LDTKJDW;
MODEL DTKS = WS LLHS INVS GEXPS LDTKSDW;
MODEL DTKK = WK LLHK INVK GEXPK LDTKKDW;
MODEL DTKSL = WSL LLHSL INVSL GEXPSL LDTKSLDW;
MODEL DTKP = WP LLHP INVP GEXPP LDTKPDW;
MODEL STKJ = WJ MIGIN MIGOUT MIGEXJ POPJ LSTKJDW;
MODEL STKS = WS MIGJS MIGSJ MIGSPLJ MIGEXS POPS LSTKSDW;
MODEL STKK = WK MIGJK MIGKJ MIGKLJ MIGEXK POPK LSTKKDW;
MODEL STKSL = WSL MIGJSL MIGSLJ MIGSLLJ MIGEXSL POPSL LSTKSLDW;
MODEL STKP = WP MIGJP MIGPJ MIGPLJ MIGEXP POPP LSTKPDW;
MODEL WJ = UMRJ DTKJ STKJ KHMJ INFJ LWJDW;
MODEL WS = UMRS DTKS STKS KHMS INFS LWSDW;
MODEL WK = UMRK UK KHMK INFK LWKDW;
MODEL WSL = UMRSL USL KHMSL INFSL LWSLDW;
MODEL WP = UMRP DTKP STKP KHMP INFP LWPDW;
MODEL CONJ = DICJ INCMJ DEVJ SB LCONJDW;
MODEL CONS = DICS INCMS DEVS SB LCONSDW;
MODEL CONK = DICK INCMK DEVK SB LCONKDW;
MODEL CONSL = DICSL INCMSL DEVSL SB LCONSLDW;
MODEL CONP = DICP INCMP DEVP SB LCONPDW;
MODEL INVJ = SB WJ GRDPJ NTK LINVJDW;
MODEL INVS = SB WS GRDPS NTK LINVSDW;
MODEL INVK = SB WK GRDPK NTK LINVKDW;
MODEL INVSL = SB WSL GRDPSL NTK LINVSLDW;
MODEL INVP = SB WP GRDPP NTK LINVPDW;
MODEL DEVJ = MIGJM MIGJSP MIGJAS MIGJH MIGJNL LDEVJDW;
MODEL DEVS = MIGSM MIGSSP MIGSAS MIGSH MIGSNL LDEVSDW;
MODEL DEVK = MIGKM MIGKSP MIGKAS MIGKH MIGKNL LDEVKDW;
MODEL DEVSL = MIGSLM MIGSLSP MIGSLAS MIGSLH MIGSLNL LDEVSLDW;
MODEL DEVP = MIGPM MIGPSP MIGPAS MIGPH MIGPNL LDEVPDW;
Identity MIGIN = MIGSJ+MIGKJ+MIGSLJ+MIGPJ; Identity MIGOUT = MIGJS+MIGJK+MIGJSL+MIGJP;
Identity MIGEXJ = MIGJM+MIGJAS+MIGJSP+MIGJH; Identity MIGEXS = MIGSM+MIGSAS+MIGSSP+MIGSH;
Identity MIGEXK = MIGKM+MIGKAS+MIGKSP+MIGKH; Identity MIGEXSL= MIGSLM+MIGSLAS+MIGSLSP+MIGSLH;
Identity MIGEXP = MIGPM+MIGPAS+MIGPSP+MIGPH; Identity UJ = STKJ-DTKJ;
Identity US = STKS-DTKS; Identity UK = STKK-DTKK;
Identity USL = STKSL-DTKSL; Identity UP = STKP-DTKP;
Identity GRDPJ = CONJ+INVJ+GEXJ+EXPJ-IMPJ; Identity GRDPS = CONS+INVS+GEXS+ EXPS-IMPS;
Identity GRDPK = CONK+INVK+GEXK+ EXPK-IMPK; Identity GRDPSL = CONSL+INVSL+GEXSL+ EXPSL-IMPSL;
318
Identity GRDPP = CONP+INVP+GEXP+ EXPP-IMPP; Identity DICJ = GRDPJ-TAXJ;
Identity DICS = GRDPS-TAXS; Identity DICK = GRDPK-TAXK;
Identity DICSL = GRDPSL-TAXSL; Identity DICP = GRDPP-TAXP;
RUN ;
QUIT ;
Program estimasi parameter model Ekonomi Migrasi Indonesia yang sesuai
dengan proposal penelitian.
319
Lampiran 3b. Program Estimasi Parameter Model Ekonomi Migrasi
Indonesia Menggunakan Prosedur SYSLIN Metode 2SLS dengan Program SASETS Versi 9
option nodate nonumber; data
D1; set safrida;
WSP1 = WSPNTKSP; WM1 = WMNTKM;
WH1 = WHNTKH; NEXJ = EXPJ-IMPJ;
NEXS = EXPS-IMPS; NEXK = EXPK-IMPK;
NEXSL = EXPSL-IMPSL; NEXP = EXPP-IMPP;
DEVJ1 = DEVJNTK; DEVS1 = DEVSNTK;
DEVK1 = DEVKNTK; DEVSL1 = DEVSLNTK;
DEVP1 = DEVPNTK; DEVJ2 = DEVJ1IHKJ100;
DEVS2 = DEVS1IHKS100; DEVK2 = DEVK1IHKK100;
DEVSL2 = DEVSL1IHKSL100; DEVP2 = DEVP1IHKP100;
GDPCAS1 = GDPCASNTK; LGDPCAS1 = LAGGDPCAS1;
GRDPCJ = GRDPJPOPJ; GRDPCS = GRDPSPOPS;
GRDPCK = GRDPKPOPK; GRDPCSL = GRDPSLPOPSL;
GRDPCP = GRDPPPOPP; LMIGSJ = LAGMIGSJ;
LMIGKJ = LAGMIGKJ; LMIGSLJ = LAGMIGSLJ;
LMIGPJ = LAGMIGPJ; LMIGJS = LAGMIGJS;
LMIGJK = LAGMIGJK; LMIGJSL = LAGMIGJSL;
LMIGJP = LAGMIGJP; LMIGJM = LAGMIGJM;
LMIGJAS = LAGMIGJAS; LMIGJSP = LAGMIGJSP;
LMIGJH = LAGMIGJH; LMIGSM = LAGMIGSM;
LMIGSAS = LAGMIGSAS; LMIGSSP = LAGMIGSSP;
LMIGSH = LAGMIGSH; LMIGKM = LAGMIGKM;
LMIGKAS = LAGMIGKAS; LMIGKSP = LAGMIGKSP;
LMIGKH = LAGMIGKH; LMIGSLM = LAGMIGSLM;
LMIGSLAS = LAGMIGSLAS; LMIGSLSP = LAGMIGSLSP;
LMIGSLH = LAGMIGSLH; LMIGPM = LAGMIGPM;
LMIGPAS = LAGMIGPAS; LMIGPSP = LAGMIGPSP;
LMIGPH = LAGMIGPH; LDTKJ = LAGDTKJ;
LDTKS = LAGDTKS; LDTKK = LAGDTKK;
LDTKSL = LAGDTKSL; LDTKP = LAGDTKP;
LSTKJ = LAGSTKJ; LSTKS = LAGSTKS;
LSTKK = LAGSTKK; LSTKSL = LAGSTKSL;
LSTKP = LAGSTKP; LWJ = LAGWJ;
LWS = LAGWS; LWK = LAGWK;
LWSL = LAGWSL; LWP = LAGWP;
LCONJ = LAGCONJ; LCONS = LAGCONS;
LCONK = LAGCONK; LCONSL = LAGCONSL;
LCONP = LAGCONP; LINVJ = LAGINVJ;
LINVS = LAGINVS; LINVK = LAGINVK;
LINVSL = LAGINVSL; LINVP = LAGINVP;
LDEVP = LAGDEVP; LDEVJ2 = LAGDEVJ2;
LDEVS2 = LAGDEVS2; LDEVK1 = LAGDEVK1;
LDEVK2 = LAGDEVK2; LDEVSL2 = LAGDEVSL2;
LDEVP2 = LAGDEVP2; LDICS = LAGDICS;
LDICSL = LAGDICSL; LPOPJ = LAGPOPJ;
LSBRP = LAGSBRP; LGEXIS = LAGGEXIS;
LGEXPJ = LAGGEXPJ; LINFP = LAGINFP;
LINFS = LAGINFS; LGEXIK = LAGGEXIK;
PGEXIK = GEXIK-LGEXIK; LGEXIP = LAGGEXIP;
PGEXIP = GEXIP-LGEXIP; SBP = SBRP-LSBRP;
LSB = LAGSB; PSB = SB-LSBLSB;
LPOPJ = LAGPOPJ; LPOPS = LAGPOPS;
MIGINS = MIGJS+MIGLJS; MIGOUTS = MIGSJ+MIGSPLJ;
MIGINK = MIGJK+MIGLJK; MIGOUTK = MIGKJ+MIGKLJ;
MIGINSL = MIGJSL+MIGLJSL; MIGOUTSL = MIGSLJ+MIGSLLJ;
MIGINP = MIGJP+MIGLJP; MIGOUTP = MIGPJ+MIGPLJ;
NMIGS = MIGINS-MIGOUTS; LNMIGS = LAGNMIGS;
INCMJ = MIGINGRDPCJ; INCMS = MIGINSGRDPCS;
INCMK = MIGINKGRDPCK; INCMSL = MIGINSLGRDPCSL;
INCMP = MIGINPGRDPCP; LINCMJ = LAGINCMJ;
320
LINCMK = LAGINCMK; LINCMP = LAGINCMP;
LUMRS = LAGUMRS; LDTKH = LAGDTKH;
LLLHK = LAGLLHK; PLLHK = LLHK-LLLHK;
PDTKH = DTKH-LDTKH; LLLHP = LAGLLHP;
PLLHP = LLHP-LLLHP; PUMRS = UMRS-LUMRS;
PWP = WP-LWP; LMIGINS = LAGMIGINS;
LMIGOUTS = LAGMIGOUTS; LMIGEXS = LAGMIGEXS;
GDPCSP1 = GDPCSPNTK; GDPSP1 = GDPSPNTK;
PWM1 = WM1-LAGWM1; PSTKJ = STKJ-LSTKJ;
LDIKTSL = LAGDIKTSL; PSTKSL = STKSL-LSTKSL;
RUN ;
PROC SYSLIN DATA=D1 2SLS;
ENDOGENOUS MIGSJ MIGKJ MIGSLJ MIGPJ MIGIN MIGINS MIGINK MIGINSL MIGINP MIGJS MIGJK MIGJSL MIGJP MIGOUT MIGOUTS MIGOUTK MIGOUTSL
MIGOUTP MIGJM MIGJAS MIGJSP MIGJH MIGEXJ MIGSM MIGSAS MIGSSP MIGSH MIGEXS MIGKM MIGKAS MIGKSP MIGKH MIGEXK MIGSLM MIGSLAS
MIGSLSP MIGSLH MIGEXSL MIGPM MIGPAS MIGPSP MIGPH MIGEXP DTKJ DTKS DTKK DTKSL DTKP STKJ STKS STKK STKSL STKP UJ US UK USL UP
WJ WS WK WSL WP GRDPJ GRDPS GRDPK GRDPSL GRDPP DICJ DICS DICK DICSL DICP CONJ CONS CONK CONSL CONP INVJ INVS INVK INVSL
INVP DEVJ DEVS DEVK DEVSL DEVP GRDPCJ GRDPCS GRDPCK GRDPCSL GRDPCP INCMJ INCMS INCMK INCMSL INCMP;
INSTRUMENTS MIGLJS MIGLJK MIGLJSL MIGLJP MIGSPLJ MIGKLJ MIGSLLJ MIGPLJ MIGJNL MIGSNL MIGKNL MIGSLNL MIGPNL DIKTS DIKRS DIKTK DIKRK
DIKTSL DIKRSL DIKTP DIKRP INDJ LLHS LLHK LLHSL LLHP POPJ POPS POPK POPSL POPP UMRJ UMRS UMRK UMRSL UMRP GDPCAS GDPAS NTKAS
NTKSP NTKM NTKH WSP GDPCSP WM GDPCM WH GDPCH DTKSP STKSP DTKM STKM DTKH STKH GEXJ GEXS GEXK GEXSL GEXP GEXIJ GEXIS GEXIK
GEXISL GEXIP KHMJ KHMS KHMK KHMSL KHMP GEXPJ GEXPS GEXPK GEXPSL GEXPP INFJ INFS INFK INFSL INFP EXPJ IMPJ EXPS IMPS
EXPK IMPK EXPSL IMPSL EXPP IMPP TAXJ TAXS TAXK TAXSL TAXP SB NTK IHKJ IHKS IHKK IHKSL IHKP GRDPCJ GRDPCS GRDPCK GRDPCSL
GRDPCP INCMJ INCMS INCMK INCMSL INCMP;
MODEL MIGSJ = WS DTKJ DIKTS LMIGSJDW;
MODEL MIGKJ = PWK DTKJ DIKTK LMIGKJDW;
MODEL MIGSLJ = WSL DTKJ DIKTSL LMIGSLJDW;
MODEL MIGPJ = WP DTKJ DIKTP DIKRP LMIGPJDW;
MODEL MIGJS = GRDPJ DTKJ DTKS POPJ GEXISDW;
MODEL MIGJK = DTKK WJ POPJ PGEXIK LMIGJKDW;
MODEL MIGJSL = DTKSL STKJ GEXISLDW;
MODEL MIGJP = LWJ PWP UJ GEXIPDW;
MODEL MIGJM = WM1 GRDPJ DTKM STKM DTKJ DIKRJ DIKTJDW;
MODEL MIGSM = WM1 GRDPCS DTKM US DIKRS DIKTSDW;
MODEL MIGKM = WM1 WK DTKM DTKK DIKTKDW;
MODEL MIGSLM = WM1 WSL DTKM DIKTSLDW NOINT;
MODEL MIGPM = WM1 GRDPP DTKM DTKP DIKRP DIKTPDW NOINT;
MODEL MIGJAS = LGDPCAS1 GRDPJ STKJ DIKRJ DIKTJDW ;
MODEL MIGSAS = LGDPCAS1 GRDPS US DIKTSDW;
MODEL MIGKAS = LGDPCAS1 GRDPK STKK DIKTKDW;
MODEL MIGSLAS = LGDPCAS1 GRDPSL STKSL DIKTSLDW;
MODEL MIGPAS = LGDPCAS1 PGRDPP UP DIKRP DIKTPDW;
MODEL MIGJSP = GDPCSP1 LDTKSP PSTKJ DIKTJ LMIGJSPDW NOINT;
MODEL MIGSSP = GDPCSP1 LDTKSP WS DTKS LMIGSSPDW NOINT;
MODEL MIGKSP = WSP1 LDTKSP GRDPK STKK DIKTK LMIGKSPDW NOINT;
MODEL MIGSLSP = WSP1 DTKSP WSL LDIKTSL LMIGSLSPDW;
MODEL MIGPSP = WSP1 WP DTKSP STKP DIKRP DIKTP LMIGPSPDW;
MODEL MIGJH = WH1 STKJ PDTKH DIKTJDW;
MODEL MIGSH = WH1 GRDPS DTKH DTKS DIKTSDW;
MODEL MIGKH = WH1 WK UK PDTKH DIKTK LMIGKHDW;
MODEL MIGSLH = WH1 DTKH PSTKSL DIKTSLDW NOINT;
MODEL MIGPH = WH1 WP UP PDTKH DIKRP DIKTPDW;
MODEL DTKJ = INDJ LINVJ GEXPJ LDTKJDW;
MODEL DTKS = INVS LLHS GEXPS LDTKSDW;
MODEL DTKK = INVK PLLHK GEXPK LDTKKDW;
321
MODEL DTKSL = LINVSL LLHSL GEXPSL LDTKSLDW NOINT;
MODEL DTKP = INVP PLLHP GEXPPDW;
MODEL STKJ = WJ MIGIN MIGOUT MIGEXJ POPJ LSTKJDW;
MODEL STKS = WS LNMIGS MIGEXS POPS LSTKSDW NOINT;
MODEL STKK = WK MIGINK MIGOUTK MIGEXK POPK LSTKKDW;
MODEL STKSL = WSL MIGINSL MIGOUTSL MIGEXSL POPSLDW;
MODEL STKP = WP MIGINP MIGOUTP MIGEXP POPP LSTKPDW;
MODEL WJ = UMRJ DTKJ STKJ KHMJ INFJ LWJDW;
MODEL WS = PUMRS DTKS STKS KHMS INFS LWSDW;
MODEL WK = UMRK LDTKK LSTKK KHMK INFK LWKDW;
MODEL WSL = UMRSL DTKSL STKSL KHMSL INFSLDW NOINT;
MODEL WP = UMRP LDTKP STKP LINFP LWPDW;
MODEL CONJ = DICJ LINCMJ DEVJ2 LSBDW;
MODEL CONS = LDICS INCMS DEVS2 SB LCONSDW;
MODEL CONK = DICK LINCMK LDEVK2 SB LCONKDW;
MODEL CONSL = LDICSL INCMSL DEVSL2 SB LCONSLDW;
MODEL CONP = LDICP INCMP DEVP2 SBDW NOINT;
MODEL INVJ = SB WJ NTK LINVJDW;
MODEL INVS = SB WS NTK LINVSDW;
MODEL INVK = SB WK GRDPK LINVKDW;
MODEL INVSL = PSB WSL PGRDPSL NTKDW NOINT;
MODEL INVP = LSB LWP GRDPP NTKDW;
MODEL DEVJ2 = MIGEXJ MIGJNL LDEVJ2DW;
MODEL DEVS2 = MIGEXS MIGSNL LDEVS2DW;
MODEL DEVK2 = MIGEXK MIGKNLDW;
MODEL DEVSL2 = MIGEXSL MIGSLNLDW;
MODEL DEVP2 = MIGEXP MIGPNL LDEVP2DW;
Identity MIGINJ = MIGSJ+MIGKJ+MIGSLJ+MIGPJ; Identity MIGOUTJ = MIGJS+MIGJK+MIGJSL+MIGJP;
Identity MIGINS = MIGJS+MIGLJS; Identity MIGOUTS = MIGSJ+MIGSPLJ;
Identity MIGINK = MIGJK+MIGLJK; Identity MIGOUTK = MIGKJ+MIGKLJ;
Identity MIGINSL = MIGJSL+MIGLJSL; Identity MIGOUTSL = MIGSLJ+MIGSLLJ;
Identity MIGINP = MIGJP+MIGLJP; Identity MIGOUTP = MIGPJ+MIGPLJ;
Identity MIGEXJ = MIGJM+MIGJAS+MIGJSP+MIGJH; Identity MIGEXS = MIGSM+MIGSAS+MIGSSP+MIGSH;
Identity MIGEXK = MIGKM+MIGKAS+MIGKSP+MIGKH; Identity MIGEXSL = MIGSLM+MIGSLAS+MIGSLSP+MIGSLH;
Identity MIGEXP = MIGPM+MIGPAS+MIGPSP+MIGPH; Identity UJ = STKJ-DTKJ;
Identity US = STKS-DTKS; Identity UK = STKK-DTKK;
Identity USL = STKSL-DTKSL; Identity UP = STKP-DTKP;
Identity GRDPJ = CONJ+INVJ+GEXJ+NEXJ; Identity GRDPS = CONS+INVS+GEXS+NEXS;
Identity GRDPK = CONK+INVK+GEXK+NEXK; Identity GRDPSL = CONSL+INVSL+GEXSL+NEXSL;
Identity GRDPP = CONP+INVP+GEXP+NEXP; Identity DICJ = GRDPJ-TAXJ;
Identity DICS = GRDPS-TAXS; Identity DICK = GRDPK-TAXK;
Identity DICSL = GRDPSL-TAXSL; Identity DICP = GRDPP-TAXP;
RUN
; QUIT;
322
Lampiran 4. Hasil Estimasi Parameter Model Ekonomi Migrasi Indonesia Menggunakan Prosedur SYSLIN Metode 2SLS dengan
Program SASETS Versi 9
The SAS Sy s t em The SYSLI N Pr oc edur e
Two- St age Leas t Squar es Es t i mat i on Model MI GSJ
Dependent Var i abl e MI GSJ Label MI GSJ
Anal y s i s of Var i anc e Sum of Mean
Sour c e DF Squar es Squar e F Val ue Pr F Model 4 1. 08E12 2. 699E11 790. 74 . 0001
Er r or 16 5. 4608E9 3. 413E8 Cor r ec t ed Tot al 20 1. 085E12
Root MSE 18474. 3496 R- Squar e 0. 99497 Dependent Mean 1357492. 13 Adj R- Sq 0. 99371
Coef f Var 1. 36092 Par amet er Es t i mat es
Par amet er St andar d Var i abl e Var i abl e DF Es t i mat e Er r or t Val ue Pr | t | Label
I nt er c ept 1 - 50824. 3 164014. 2 - 0. 31 0. 7607 I nt er c ept WS 1 - 0. 28635 0. 109753 - 2. 61 0. 0190 WS
DTKJ 1 0. 003347 0. 005068 0. 66 0. 5184 DTKJ DI KTS 1 0. 002039 0. 037771 0. 05 0. 9576 DI KTS
LMI GSJ 1 0. 994103 0. 060165 16. 52 . 0001 Dur bi n- Wat s on 1. 745123
Number of Obs er v at i ons 21 Fi r s t - Or der Aut oc or r el at i on 0. 115578
323
The SAS Sy s t em The SYSLI N Pr oc edur e
Two- St age Leas t Squar es Es t i mat i on Model MI GJ S
Dependent Var i abl e MI GJ S Label MI GJ S
Anal y s i s of Var i anc e Sum of Mean
Sour c e DF Squar es Squar e F Val ue Pr F Model 5 4. 345E11 8. 689E10 6. 15 0. 0027
Er r or 15 2. 118E11 1. 412E10 Cor r ec t ed Tot al 20 6. 463E11
Root MSE 118827. 279 R- Squar e 0. 67227 Dependent Mean 3491272. 97 Adj R- Sq 0. 56303
Coef f Var 3. 40355 Par amet er Es t i mat es
Par amet er St andar d Var i abl e Var i abl e DF Es t i mat e Er r or t Val ue Pr | t | Label
I nt er c ept 1 1428856 1730595 0. 83 0. 4219 I nt er c ept GRDPJ 1 - 1. 35311 0. 402314 - 3. 36 0. 0043 GRDPJ
DTKJ 1 - 0. 05562 0. 052532 - 1. 06 0. 3064 DTKJ DTKS 1 0. 253924 0. 180569 1. 41 0. 1800 DTKS
POPJ 1 9. 163567 26. 13908 0. 35 0. 7308 POPJ GEXI S 1 113. 3739 66. 97203 1. 69 0. 1111 GEXI S
Dur bi n- Wat s on 1. 532206 Number of Obs er v at i ons 21
Fi r s t - Or der Aut oc or r el at i on 0. 216163
324
The SAS Sy s t em The SYSLI N Pr oc edur e
Two- St age Leas t Squar es Es t i mat i on Model MI GJ M
Dependent Var i abl e MI GJ M Label MI GJ M
Anal y s i s of Var i anc e Sum of Mean
Sour c e DF Squar es Squar e F Val ue Pr F Model 7 1. 644E10 2. 3492E9 4. 30 0. 0113
Er r or 13 7. 0959E9 5. 4584E8 Cor r ec t ed Tot al 20 2. 354E10
Root MSE 23363. 2048 R- Squar e 0. 69857 Dependent Mean 34964. 8571 Adj R- Sq 0. 53626
Coef f Var 66. 81911 Par amet er Es t i mat es
Par amet er St andar d Var i abl e Var i abl e DF Es t i mat e Er r or t Val ue Pr | t | Label
I nt er c ept 1 - 615151 867748. 1 - 0. 71 0. 4909 I nt er c ept WM1 1 0. 027936 0. 016615 1. 68 0. 1165
GRDPJ 1 - 0. 23620 0. 121275 - 1. 95 0. 0734 GRDPJ DTKM 1 53. 50510 70. 95580 0. 75 0. 4643 DTKM
STKM 1 - 1. 99678 80. 84512 - 0. 02 0. 9807 STKM DTKJ 1 - 0. 00820 0. 007636 - 1. 07 0. 3025 DTKJ
DI KRJ 1 0. 036219 0. 040678 0. 89 0. 3894 DI KRJ DI KTJ 1 - 0. 02802 0. 025495 - 1. 10 0. 2918 DI KTJ
Dur bi n- Wat s on 2. 322956 Number of Obs er v at i ons 21
Fi r s t - Or der Aut oc or r el at i on - 0. 18019
325
The SAS Sy s t em The SYSLI N Pr oc edur e
Two- St age Leas t Squar es Es t i mat i on Model DTKJ
Dependent Var i abl e DTKJ Label DTKJ
Anal y s i s of Var i anc e Sum of Mean
Sour c e DF Squar es Squar e F Val ue Pr F Model 4 3. 951E14 9. 877E13 79. 12 . 0001
Er r or 16 1. 997E13 1. 248E12 Cor r ec t ed Tot al 20 4. 151E14
Root MSE 1117302. 26 R- Squar e 0. 95188 Dependent Mean 50126724. 6 Adj R- Sq 0. 93985
Coef f Var 2. 22896 Par amet er Es t i mat es
Par amet er St andar d Var i abl e Var i abl e DF Es t i mat e Er r or t Val ue Pr | t | Label
I nt er c ept 1 20694651 6080420 3. 40 0. 0036 I nt er c ept I NDJ 1 429. 4634 192. 5536 2. 23 0. 0404 I NDJ
LI NVJ 1 0. 282787 8. 434247 0. 03 0. 9737 GEXPJ 1 309. 7854 122. 2730 2. 53 0. 0221 GEXPJ
LDTKJ 1 0. 422479 0. 177443 2. 38 0. 0300 Dur bi n- Wat s on 1. 828539
Number of Obs er v at i ons 21 Fi r s t - Or der Aut oc or r el at i on 0. 023255
326
The SAS Sy s t em The SYSLI N Pr oc edur e
Two- St age Leas t Squar es Es t i mat i on Model CONJ
Dependent Var i abl e CONJ Label CONJ
Anal y s i s of Var i anc e Sum of Mean
Sour c e DF Squar es Squar e F Val ue Pr F Model 4 8. 235E11 2. 059E11 421. 31 . 0001
Er r or 16 7. 8187E9 4. 8867E8 Cor r ec t ed Tot al 20 8. 313E11
Root MSE 22105. 8137 R- Squar e 0. 99060 Dependent Mean 286745. 596 Adj R- Sq 0. 98824
Coef f Var 7. 70921 Par amet er Es t i mat es
Par amet er St andar d Var i abl e Var i abl e DF Es t i mat e Er r or t Val ue Pr | t | Label
I nt er c ept 1 13157. 11 39461. 76 0. 33 0. 7432 I nt er c ept DI CJ 1 0. 621406 0. 100357 6. 19 . 0001 DI CJ
LI NCMJ 1 0. 000974 0. 000847 1. 15 0. 2671 DEVJ 2 1 0. 002188 0. 004006 0. 55 0. 5924
LSB 1 - 1169. 70 2008. 303 - 0. 58 0. 5684 Dur bi n- Wat s on 1. 11043
Number of Obs er v at i ons 21 Fi r s t - Or der Aut oc or r el at i on 0. 440174
327
The SAS Sy s t em The SYSLI N Pr oc edur e
Two- St age Leas t Squar es Es t i mat i on Model DEVJ 2
Dependent Var i abl e DEVJ 2 Label
Anal y s i s of Var i anc e Sum of Mean
Sour c e DF Squar es Squar e F Val ue Pr F Model 3 2. 754E14 9. 179E13 27. 37 . 0001
Er r or 17 5. 701E13 3. 353E12 Cor r ec t ed Tot al 20 3. 324E14
Root MSE 1831196. 34 R- Squar e 0. 82849 Dependent Mean 3752547. 93 Adj R- Sq 0. 79822
Coef f Var 48. 79875 Par amet er Es t i mat es
Par amet er St andar d Var i abl e Var i abl e DF Es t i mat e Er r or t Val ue Pr | t | Label
I nt er c ept 1 - 1114170 899244. 0 - 1. 24 0. 2322 I nt er c ept MI GEXJ 1 3. 783781 7. 853476 0. 48 0. 6361 MI GEXJ
MI GJ NL 1 125. 0724 44. 97650 2. 78 0. 0128 MI GJ NL LDEVJ 2 1 0. 405247 0. 200304 2. 02 0. 0591
Dur bi n- Wat s on 2. 014388 Number of Obs er v at i ons 21
Fi r s t - Or der Aut oc or r el at i on - 0. 04175
328
Lampiran 5. Program Validasi Model Ekonomi Migrasi Indonesia Tahun 2001-2006 Menggunakan Prosedur SIMNLIN Metode Newton
dengan Program SASETS Versi 9.
option nodate nonumber; data
D1; set safrida;
WSP1 = WSPNTKSP; WM1 = WMNTKM;
WH1 = WHNTKH; NEXJ = EXPJ-IMPJ;
NEXS = EXPS-IMPS; NEXK = EXPK-IMPK;
NEXSL = EXPSL-IMPSL; NEXP = EXPP-IMPP;
DEVJ1 = DEVJNTK; DEVS1 = DEVSNTK;
DEVK1 = DEVKNTK; DEVSL1 = DEVSLNTK;
DEVP1 = DEVPNTK; DEVJ2 = DEVJ1IHKJ100;
DEVS2 = DEVS1IHKS100; DEVK2 = DEVK1IHKK100;
DEVSL2 = DEVSL1IHKSL100; DEVP2 = DEVP1IHKP100;
GDPCAS1 = GDPCASNTKAS; LGDPCAS = LAGGDPCAS;
GRDPCJ = GRDPJPOPJ; GRDPCS = GRDPSPOPS;
GRDPCK = GRDPKPOPK; GRDPCSL = GRDPSLPOPSL;
GRDPCP = GRDPPPOPP; LMIGSJ = LAGMIGSJ;
LMIGKJ = LAGMIGKJ; LMIGSLJ = LAGMIGSLJ;
LMIGPJ = LAGMIGPJ; LMIGJS = LAGMIGJS;
LMIGJK = LAGMIGJK; LMIGJSL = LAGMIGJSL;
LMIGJP = LAGMIGJP; LMIGJM = LAGMIGJM;
LMIGJAS = LAGMIGJAS; LMIGJSP = LAGMIGJSP;
LMIGJH = LAGMIGJH; LMIGSM = LAGMIGSM;
LMIGSAS = LAGMIGSAS; LMIGSSP = LAGMIGSSP;
LMIGSH = LAGMIGSH; LMIGKM = LAGMIGKM;
LMIGKAS = LAGMIGKAS; LMIGKSP = LAGMIGKSP;
LMIGKH = LAGMIGKH; LMIGSLM = LAGMIGSLM;
LMIGSLAS = LAGMIGSLAS; LMIGSLSP = LAGMIGSLSP;
LMIGSLH = LAGMIGSLH; LMIGPM = LAGMIGPM;
LMIGPAS = LAGMIGPAS; LMIGPSP = LAGMIGPSP;
LMIGPH = LAGMIGPH; LDTKJ = LAGDTKJ;
LDTKS = LAGDTKS; LDTKK = LAGDTKK;
LDTKSL = LAGDTKSL; LDTKP = LAGDTKP;
LSTKJ = LAGSTKJ; LSTKS = LAGSTKS;
LSTKK = LAGSTKK; LSTKSL = LAGSTKSL;
LSTKP = LAGSTKP; LWJ = LAGWJ;
LWS = LAGWS; LWK = LAGWK;
LWSL = LAGWSL; LWP = LAGWP;
LCONJ = LAGCONJ; LCONS = LAGCONS;
LCONK = LAGCONK; LCONSL = LAGCONSL;
LCONP = LAGCONP; LINVJ = LAGINVJ;
LINVS = LAGINVS; LINVK = LAGINVK;
LINVSL = LAGINVSL; LINVP = LAGINVP;
LDEVP = LAGDEVP; LDEVJ2 = LAGDEVJ2;
LDEVS2 = LAGDEVS2; LDEVK1 = LAGDEVK1;
LDEVK2 = LAGDEVK2; LDEVSL2 = LAGDEVSL2;
LDEVP2 = LAGDEVP2; LDICS = LAGDICS;
LDICSL = LAGDICSL; LPOPJ = LAGPOPJ;
LSBRP = LAGSBRP; LGEXIS = LAGGEXIS;
LGEXPJ = LAGGEXPJ; LINFP = LAGINFP;
LINFS = LAGINFS; LGEXIK = LAGGEXIK;
PGEXIK = GEXIK-LGEXIK; LGEXIP = LAGGEXIP;
PGEXIP = GEXIP-LGEXIP; SBP = SBRP-LSBRP;
LSB = LAGSB; PSB = SB-LSBLSB;
LPOPJ = LAGPOPJ; LPOPS = LAGPOPS;
MIGINS = MIGJS+MIGLJS; MIGOUTS = MIGSJ+MIGSPLJ;
MIGINK = MIGJK+MIGLJK; MIGOUTK = MIGKJ+MIGKLJ;
MIGINSL = MIGJSL+MIGLJSL; MIGOUTSL = MIGSLJ+MIGSLLJ;
MIGINP = MIGJP+MIGLJP; MIGOUTP = MIGPJ+MIGPLJ;
NMIGS = MIGINS-MIGOUTS; LNMIGS = LAGNMIGS;
INCMJ = MIGINGRDPCJ; INCMS = MIGINSGRDPCS;
INCMK = MIGINKGRDPCK; INCMSL = MIGINSLGRDPCSL;
INCMP = MIGINPGRDPCP; LINCMJ = LAGINCMJ;
329
LINCMK = LAGINCMK; LINCMP = LAGINCMP;
LUMRS = LAGUMRS; LDTKH = LAGDTKH;
LLLHK = LAGLLHK; PLLHK = LLHK-LLLHK;
PDTKH = DTKH-LDTKH; LLLHP = LAGLLHP;
PLLHP = LLHP-LLLHP; PUMRS = UMRS-LUMRS;
PWP = WP-LWP; LMIGINS = LAGMIGINS;
LMIGOUTS = LAGMIGOUTS; LMIGEXS = LAGMIGEXS;
GDPCSP1 = GDPCSPNTK; GDPSP1 = GDPSPNTK;
RUN; PROC SIMNLIN DATA=D1 SIMULATE STAT OUTPREDICT THEIL;
ENDOGENOUS MIGSJ MIGKJ MIGSLJ MIGPJ MIGIN MIGINS MIGINK MIGINSL MIGINP MIGJS MIGJK MIGJSL MIGJP MIGOUT MIGOUTS MIGOUTK MIGOUTSL
MIGOUTP MIGJM MIGJAS MIGJSP MIGJH MIGEXJ MIGSM MIGSAS MIGSSP MIGSH MIGEXS MIGKM MIGKAS MIGKSP MIGKH MIGEXK MIGSLM MIGSLAS
MIGSLSP MIGSLH MIGEXSL MIGPM MIGPAS MIGPSP MIGPH MIGEXP DTKJ DTKS DTKK DTKSL DTKP STKJ STKS STKK STKSL STKP UJ US UK USL UP
WJ WS WK WSL WP GRDPJ GRDPS GRDPK GRDPSL GRDPP DICJ DICS DICK DICSL DICP CONJ CONS CONK CONSL CONP INVJ INVS INVK INVSL
INVP DEVJ2 DEVS2 DEVK2 DEVSL2 DEVP2; INSTRUMENTS MIGLJS MIGLJK MIGLJSL MIGLJP MIGSPLJ MIGKLJ MIGSLLJ MIGPLJ
MIGJNL MIGSNL MIGKNL MIGSLNL MIGPNL DIKTS DIKRS DIKTK DIKRK DIKTSL DIKRSL DIKTP DIKRP INDJ LLHS LLHK LLHSL LLHP POPJ POPS
POPK POPSL POPP UMRJ UMRS UMRK UMRSL UMRP GDPCAS GDPAS NTKAS NTKSP NTKM NTKH WSP GDPCSP WM GDPCM WH GDPCH DTKSP STKSP DTKM
STKM DTKH STKH GEXJ GEXS GEXK GEXSL GEXP GEXIJ GEXIS GEXIK GEXISL GEXIP KHMJ KHMS KHMK KHMSL KHMP GEXPJ GEXPS GEXPK
GEXPSL GEXPP INFJ INFS INFK INFSL INFP EXPJ IMPJ EXPS IMPS EXPK IMPK EXPSL IMPSL EXPP IMPP TAXJ TAXS TAXK TAXSL TAXP SB
NTK IHKJ IHKS IHKK IHKSL IHKP INCMJ INCMS INCMK INCMSL INCMP; PARAMETERS A0 -50824.3 A1 -0.28635 A2 0.003347 A3 0.002039 A4 0.994103
B0 -28483.6 B1 -0.02539 B2 0.001880 B3 -0.08243 B4 0.749858 C0 12269.48 C1 -0.03879 C2 0.000445 C3 0.056787 C4 0.839105
D0 -77888.7 D1 -0.05759 D2 0.001350 D3 0.055758 D4 0.014407 D5 0.910275
E0
1428856 E1 -1.35311 E2 -0.05562 E3 0.253924 E4 9.163567
E5 113.3739 F0
-4441.74 F1 0.014055 F2 -0.07515 F3 1.343089 F4 38.01973 F5 0.834580
G0 87702.23 G1 0.039016 G2 0.000272 G3 30.48324 H0 330586.5 H1 -0.54310 H2 0.761621 H3 0.038132 H4 172.2293
I0 -615151 I1 0.027936 I2 -0.23620 I3 53.50510 I4 -1.99678
I5 -0.00820 I6 0.036219 I7 -0.02802 J0
-66160.9 J1 0.008362 J2 -16060.4 J3 12.54829 J4 0.012167 J5 0.002063 J6 -0.02378
K0 -116582 K1 0.016314 K2 -0.26561 K3 46.14460 K4 -0.02529 K5 -0.75449
L1 0.000201 L2 -0.00241 L3 0.171641 L4 -0.00431 M1
0.001240 M2 -0.06776 M3 6.985859 M4 -0.02672 M5 0.033584
M6 0.254378 N0
-533905 N1 0.001659 N2 -0.28533 N3 0.006168 N4 0.015402 N5 0.033970
O0 50.01316
O1 3.121E-7 O2 -0.00032 O3 0.000094 O4 5.86E-6 P0
-431.101 P1 3.671E-6 P2 -0.00140 P3 0.000168 P4 -0.00030 Q0
-89.7794 Q1 5.333E-7 Q2 -0.00015 Q3 0.000030 Q4 -0.00008 R0 -8069.23 R1 0.000038 R2 -0.02704 R3 0.003824 R4 0.002927
R5 0.022117 S1
5.329E-6 S2 1.917251 S3 0.000742 S4 -0.00164 S5 0.721251
T1 0.000028
T2 4.442751 T3 -0.03398 T4 -5.43E-6 T5 0.573981 U1 0.000503 U2 0.922617 U3 -0.11671 U4 0.000547 U5 0.008661
U6 0.607877 V0
-16.8280 V1 7.24E-6 V2 0.088653 V3 -0.00066 V4 0.000117
330
V5 0.429379 W0
-15901.1 W1 0.000209 W2 -0.01543 W3 1.750368 W4 0.001731 W5
0.002105 W6 -0.00548 W7 0.154551
X0 -15594.9 X1 0.000194 X2 0.000401 X3 2.871335 X4 -0.00327
Y0
1327.521 Y1 0.000205 Y2 -0.01257 Y3 0.125246 Y4 -0.00008
Y5
0.000370
Z0 1917.912
Z1 0.000262 Z2 -0.01046 Z3 0.006387 Z4 0.753341 Z5
-0.01675 Z6 0.084084 AA1
2.848E-6 AA2 0.001556 AA3 0.000019 AA4 -0.00007
AB0 2.507878 AB1 0.000113 AB2 -0.00435 AB3 0.002276 AB4 .659025
AB5
6.859E-6 AB6 0.003177
AC0
20694651 AC1 429.4634 AC2 0.282787 AC3 309.7854 AC4 .422479
AD0
1630637 AD1 10.73352 AD2 0.226328 AD3 41.10451 AD4 .862737
AE0 656436.9
AE1 7.216544 AE2 0.000246 AE3 13.79245 AE4 .856420
AF1 12.06135
AF2 0.907708 AF3 242.8601 AF4 0.759644 AG0
6297321 AG1 1.167640 AG2 0.440997 AG3 281.8893
AH0 -3130294 AH1 0.633899 AH2 0.193764 AH3 -1.97155 AH4 -.63014
AH5 228.9655
AH6 0.740132
AI1 3.829520
AI2 0.200628 AI3 -0.31142 AI4 105.0001 AI5 .692715 AJ0
536182.7 AJ1 1.033700 AJ2 1.242416 AJ3 -4.53027 AJ4 -.68941
AJ5 321.4265 AJ6 0.000079
AK0 -2884435 AK1 0.482336 AK2 2.057315 AK3 -0.29073 K4 -123.780
AK5 545.5987
AL0 270611.5
AL1 1.320032 AL2 1.538432 AL3 -0.37358 AL4
-6.46752 AL5 373.9337 AL6 0.014446 AM0
182705.9 AM1 1.418945 AM2 0.004400 AM3 -0.00884
AM4 0.308878 AM5 368.5751 AM6 0.268983
AN0 -263515 AN1 0.087516 AN2 0.061394 AN3 -0.04226 AN4 .295898
AN5 62.08226
AN6 0.796530
AO0 -125778 AO1 0.597685 AO2 0.125442 AO3 -0.08880 AO4 .792605
AO5 69.76673 AO6 0.216742 AP1
0.850215 AP2 0.012186 AP3 -0.00464 AP4 0.718127
AP5 353.1327 AQ0
-74077.5 AQ1 1.008391 AQ2 0.023521 AQ3 -0.00857 AQ4
375.1849 AQ5 0.500747
AR0 13157.11
AR1 0.621406 AR2 0.000974 AR3 0.002188 AR4
-1169.70 AS0 9321.724 AS1 0.356637 AS2 0.000520 AS3 0.020068
AS4 -638.237 AS5 0.343318 AT0 -1551.88 AT1 0.331624 AT2 0.000193 AT3 0.000046
AT4 -28.0094 AT5 0.227917
AU0 4298.517
AU1 0.573925 AU2 0.010863 AU3 0.178412 AU4
-302.878 AU5 0.101428 AV1 0.154612 AV2 0.020518 AV3 0.001982 AV4 -162.201
AW0 86100.76
AW1 -3192.71 AW2 -0.02715 AW3 2.431678 AW4 0.351940 AX0
56720.18 AX1 -1707.75 AX2 -0.12845 AX3 3.883950 AX4 0.217850
AY0 7431.285 AY1 -246.774 AY2 -0.00191 AY3 0.012698 AY4 0.583846
AZ1 -4259.08 AZ2 -0.01362 AZ3 0.39223 AZ4 1.580860
BA0 8314.003 BA1 -9.44004 BA2 -0.09048 BA3 0.560636 BA4 1.778928
BB0 -1114170 BB1 3.783781 BB2 125.0724 BB3 0.405247 BC0 -64615.8 BC1 3.822291 BC2 93.04336 BC3 0.372626
BD0 -44152.5 BD1 1.053034 BD2 153.8439 BE0 -1420.23 BE1 2.455797 BE2 139.4550
BF0 -61903.2 BF1 0.239194 BF2 88.81955 BF3 0.685374; MIGSJ = A0+A1WS+A2DTKJ+A3DIKTS+A4LAGMIGSJ;
MIGKJ = B0+B1WP-LAGWP+B2DTKJ+B3DIKTK+B4LAGMIGKJ; MIGSLJ = C0+C1WSL+C2DTKJ+C3DIKTSL+C4LAGMIGSLJ;
MIGPJ = D0+D1WP+D2DTKJ+D3DIKTP+D4DIKRP+D5LAGMIGPJ; MIGJS = E0+E1GRDPJ+E2DTKJ+E3DTKS+E4POPJ+E5GEXIS;
MIGJK = F0+F1DTKK+F2WJ+F3POPJ+F4GEXIK-LAGGEXIK+F5LAGMIGJK; MIGJSL = G0+G1DTKSL+G2STKJ+G3GEXISL;
MIGJP = H0+H1LAGWJ+H2WP-LAGWP+H3UJ+H4GEXIP;
MIGJM = I0+I1WMNTKM+I2GRDPJ+I3DTKM+I4STKM+I5DTKJ+I6DIKRJ+I7DIKTJ; MIGSM = J0+J1WMNTKM+J2GRDPCS+J3DTKM+J4US+J5DIKRS+J6DIKTS;
MIGKM = K0+K1WMNTKM+K2WK+K3DTKM+K4DTKK+K5DIKTK; MIGSLM = L1WMNTKM+L2WSL+L3DTKM+L4DIKTSL;
MIGPM = M1WMNTKM+M2GRDPP+M3DTKM+M4DTKP+M5DIKRP+M6DIKTP; MIGJAS = N0+N1LAGGDPCASNTK+N2GRDPJ+N3STKJ+N4DIKRJ+N5DIKTJ;
331
MIGSAS = O0+O1LAGGDPCASNTK+O2GRDPS+O3US+O4DIKTS; MIGKAS = P0+P1LAGGDPCASNTK+P2GRDPK+P3STKK+P4DIKTK;
MIGSLAS = Q0+Q1LAGGDPCASNTK+Q2GRDPSL+Q3STKSL+Q4DIKTSL;
MIGPAS = R0+R1LAGGDPCASNTK+R2GRDPP-LAGGRDPP+R3UP+R4DIKRP+R5DIKTP; MIGJSP= S1GDPCSPNTK+S2LAGDTKSP+S3STKJ-LAGSTKJ+S4DIKTJ+S5LAGMIGJSP;
MIGSSP = T1GDPCSPNTK+T2LAGDTKSP+T3WS+T4DTKS+T5LAGMIGSSP; MIGKSP = U1WSPNTKSP+U2LAGDTKSP+U3GRDPK+U4STKK+U5DIKTK+U6LAGMIGKSP;
MIGSLSP = V0+V1WSPNTKSP+V2DTKSP+V3WSL+V4LAGDIKTSL+V5LAGMIGSLSP; MIGPSP= W0+W1WSPNTKSP+W2WP+W3DTKSP+W4STKP+W5DIKRP+W6DIKTP+W7LAGMIGPSP;
MIGJH = X0+X1WHNTKH+X2STKJ+X3DTKH-LAGDTKH+X4DIKTJ; MIGSH = Y0+Y1WHNTKH+Y2GRDPS+Y3DTKH+Y4DTKS+Y5DIKTS;
MIGKH
= Z0+Z1WHNTKH+Z2WK+Z3UK+Z4DTKH-LAGDTKH+Z5DIKTK+Z6LAGMIGKH;
MIGSLH = AA1WHNTKH+AA2DTKH+AA3STKSL-LAGSTKSL+AA4DIKTSL; MIGPH
= AB0+AB1WHNTKH+AB2WP+AB3UP+AB4DTKH-LAGDTKH+AB5DIKRP+AB6DIKTP;
DTKJ = AC0+AC1INDJ+AC2LAGINVJ+AC3GEXPJ+AC4LAGDTKJ; DTKS = AD0+AD1INVS+AD2LLHS+AD3GEXPS+AD4LAGDTKS;
DTKK = AE0+AE1INVK+AE2LLHK-LAGLLHK+AE3GEXPK+AE4LAGDTKK; DTKSL = AF1LAGINVSL+AF2LLHSL+AF3GEXPSL+AF4LAGDTKSL;
DTKP = AG0+AG1INVP+AG2LLHP-LAGLLHP+AG3GEXPP; STKJ =
AH0+AH1WJ+AH2MIGIN+AH3MIGOUT+AH4MIGEXJ+AH5POPJ+AH6LAGSTKJ;
STKS =
AI1WS+AI2LAGMIGINS-MIGOUTS+AI3MIGEXS+AI4POPS+AI5LAGSTKS;
STKK =
J0+AJ1WK+AJ2MIGINK+AJ3MIGOUTK+AJ4MIGEXK+AJ5POPK+AJ6LAGSTKK;
STKSL = AK0+AK1WSL+AK2MIGINSL+AK3MIGOUTSL+AK4MIGEXSL+AK5POPSL; STKP
= AL0+AL1WP+AL2MIGINP+AL3MIGOUTP+AL4MIGEXP+AL5POPP+AL6LAGSTKP;
WJ
= AM0+AM1UMRJ+AM2DTKJ+AM3STKJ+AM4KHMJ+AM5INFJ+AM6LAGWJ;
WS
= AN0+AN1UMRS-LAGUMRS+AN2DTKS+AN3STKS+AN4KHMS+AN5INFS+AN6LAGWS;
WK
= AO0+AO1UMRK+AO2LAGDTKK+AO3LAGSTKK+AO4KHMK+AO5INFK+AO6LAGWK;
WSL = AP1UMRSL+AP2DTKSL+AP3STKSL+AP4KHMSL+AP5INFSL; WP = AQ0+AQ1UMRP+AQ2LAGDTKP+AQ3STKP+AQ4LAGINFP+AQ5LAGWP;
CONJ = AR0+AR1DICJ+AR2LAGMIGINGRDPCJ+AR3DEVJ2+AR4LAGSB; CONS
= AS0+AS1LAGDICS+AS2MIGINSGRDPCS+AS3DEVS2+AS4SB+AS5LAGCONS;
CONK
= AT0+AT1DICK+AT2LAGMIGINKGRDPCK+AT3LAGDEVK2+AT4SB+AT5LAGCONK;
CONSL
= AU0+AU1LAGDICSL+AU2MIGINSLGRDPCSL+AU3DEVSL2+AU4SB+AU5LAGCONSL;
CONP = AV1LAGDICP+AV2MIGINPGRDPCP+AV3DEVP2+A4SB; INVJ = AW0+AW1SB+AW2WJ+AW3NTK+AW4LAGINVJ;
INVS = AX0+AX1SB+AX2WS+AX3NTK+AX4LAGINVS; INVK = AY0+AY1SB+AY2WK+AY3GRDPK+AY4LAGINVK;
INVSL = AZ1SB-LAGSB+AZ2WSL+AZ3GRDPSL-LAGGRDPSL+AZ4NTK; INVP = BA0+BA1LAGSB+BA2LAGWP+BA3GRDPP+BA4NTK;
DEVJ2 = BB0+BB1MIGEXJ+BB2MIGJNL+BB3LAGDEVJ2; DEVS2 = BC0+BC1MIGEXS+BC2MIGSNL+BC3LAGDEVS2;
DEVK2 = BD0+BD1MIGEXK+BD2MIGKNL; DEVSL2 = BE0+BE1MIGEXSL+BE2MIGSLNL;
DEVP2 = BF0+BF1MIGEXP+BF2MIGPNL+BF3LAGDEVP2; MIGIN = MIGSJ+MIGKJ+MIGSLJ+MIGPJ;
MIGOUT = MIGJS+MIGJK+MIGJSL+MIGJP; MIGINS = MIGJS+MIGLJS;
MIGOUTS = MIGSJ+MIGSPLJ; MIGINK = MIGJK+MIGLJK;
MIGOUTK = MIGKJ+MIGKLJ; MIGINSL = MIGJSL+MIGLJSL;
MIGOUTSL = MIGSLJ+MIGSLLJ; MIGINP = MIGJP+MIGLJP;
MIGOUTP = MIGPJ+MIGPLJ; MIGEXJ = MIGJM+MIGJAS+MIGJSP+MIGJH;
MIGEXS = MIGSM+MIGSAS+MIGSSP+MIGSH; MIGEXK = MIGKM+MIGKAS+MIGKSP+MIGKH;
MIGEXSL = MIGSLM+MIGSLAS+MIGSLSP+MIGSLH; MIGEXP = MIGPM+MIGPAS+MIGPSP+MIGPH;
UJ = STKJ-DTKJ; US = STKS-DTKS;
UK = STKK-DTKK; USL = STKSL-DTKSL;
UP = STKP-DTKP; GRDPJ = CONJ+INVJ+GEXJ+NEXJ;
GRDPS = CONS+INVS+GEXS+NEXS; GRDPK = CONK+INVK+GEXK+NEXK;
332
GRDPSL = CONSL+INVSL+GEXSL+NEXSL; GRDPP = CONP+INVP+GEXP+NEXP;
DICJ = GRDPJ-TAXJ; DICS = GRDPS-TAXS;
DICK = GRDPK-TAXK; DICSL = GRDPSL-TAXSL;
DICP = GRDPP-TAXP; RANGE TAHUN=2001 TO 2006;
RUN
; QUIT
;
333
Lampiran 6. Hasil Validasi Model Ekonomi Migrasi Indonesia Tahun 2001- 2006 Menggunakan Prosedur SIMNLIN Metode Newton
dengan Program SASETS Versi 9.
The SAS Sy s t em The SI MNLI N Pr oc edur e
Model Summar y Model Var i abl es 98
Endogenous 98 Par amet er s 315
Range Var i abl e Tahun Equat i ons 98
Number of St at ement s 98 Pr ogr am Lag Lengt h 1
The SAS Sy s t em The SI MNLI N Pr oc edur e
Dy nami c Si mul t aneous Si mul at i on Dat a Set Opt i ons
DATA= D1 Sol ut i on Summar y
Var i abl es Sol v ed 98 Si mul at i on Lag Lengt h 1
Sol ut i on Range Tahun Fi r s t 2001
Las t 2006 Sol ut i on Met hod NEWTON
CONVERGE= 1E- 8 Max i mum CC 2. 03E- 13
Max i mum I t er at i ons 1 Tot al I t er at i ons 6
Av er age I t er at i ons 1
Obs er v at i ons Pr oc es s ed Read 7
Lagged 1 Sol v ed 6
Fi r s t 17 Las t 22
334
The SAS Sy s t em The SI MNLI N Pr oc edur e
Dy nami c Si mul t aneous Si mul at i on Sol ut i on Range Tahun = 2001 To 2006
Des c r i pt i v e St at i s t i c s Ac t ual Pr edi c t ed
Var i abl e N Obs N Mean St d Dev Mean St d Dev MI GSJ 6 6 1578091 7433. 8 1585741 12019. 2
MI GKJ 6 6 249529 8320. 1 250571 9803. 7 MI GSLJ 6 6 204347 3423. 8 206130 4834. 4
MI GPJ 6 6 235926 11450. 4 250901 13366. 0 MI GI N 6 6 10102389 719089 2293343 7967. 1
MI GI NS 6 6 3739086 63454. 4 4330336 296568 MI GI NK 6 6 1713024 29128. 5 1711956 23909. 6
MI GI NSL 6 6 664666 4809. 1 682454 20344. 8 MI GI NP 6 6 776960 32714. 4 590893 58503. 2
MI GJ S 6 6 3495882 54844. 4 4087132 287992 MI GJ K 6 6 1213262 11868. 8 1212193 6689. 4
MI GJ SL 6 6 353446 6827. 9 371233 22069. 0 MI GJ P 6 6 514413 9189. 3 328347 74425. 6
MI GOUT 6 6 5577027 82694. 0 5998905 264653 MI GOUTS 6 6 1731847 8812. 2 1739497 13343. 7
MI GOUTK 6 6 325555 15898. 2 326597 17369. 7 MI GOUTSL 6 6 855263 34629. 6 857045 33515. 5
MI GOUTP 6 6 671972 11098. 3 686947 13020. 7 MI GJ M 6 6 55905. 7 25594. 1 159274 39804. 5
MI GJ AS 6 6 174347 56036. 2 262635 55234. 0 MI GJ SP 6 6 5929. 2 4299. 8 4530. 2 2519. 7
MI GJ H 6 6 5241. 8 2555. 3 3206. 3 2489. 8 MI GEXJ 6 6 277996 78561. 8 429645 89394. 7
MI GSM 6 6 29621. 0 13560. 9 32103. 5 11920. 4 MI GSAS 6 6 178. 5 57. 1200 167. 7 37. 0371
MI GSSP 6 6 3141. 5 2278. 2 2842. 1 924. 5 MI GSH 6 6 2777. 3 1353. 9 2042. 7 1072. 2
MI GEXS 6 6 41878. 7 15608. 0 37156. 0 10582. 7 MI GKM 6 6 43531. 5 19928. 8 45559. 7 10609. 3
MI GKAS 6 6 623. 3 200. 3 587. 5 30. 5725 MI GKSP 6 6 4616. 5 3348. 0 476. 7 4396. 1
MI GKH 6 6 4081. 5 1989. 7 3868. 4 981. 9 MI GEXK 6 6 61886. 2 23110. 7 50492. 3 7616. 9
MI GSLM 6 6 668. 2 306. 1 723. 2 168. 1 MI GSLAS 6 6 136. 0 43. 7721 125. 4 12. 8810
MI GSLSP 6 6 71. 0000 51. 4237 59. 5949 19. 0152 MI GSLH 6 6 62. 6667 30. 5330 71. 3050 8. 6863
MI GEXSL 6 6 1094. 8 378. 6 979. 4 170. 7 MI GPM 6 6 20346. 0 9314. 6 11327. 5 11600. 7
MI GPAS 6 6 9843. 0 3163. 6 8232. 0 3016. 9 MI GPSP 6 6 2157. 7 1564. 7 1928. 0 1097. 0
MI GPH 6 6 1907. 7 930. 0 1180. 3 615. 5 MI GEXP 6 6 39851. 0 12767. 9 22667. 8 13560. 3
DTKJ 6 6 55530890 1316711 55534083 991766 DTKS 6 6 18813574 444390 18939400 627515
DTKK 6 6 5172858 171234 5232402 120775 DTKSL 6 6 6037787 250921 6444985 461735
Des c r i pt i v e St at i s t i c s Ac t ual Pr edi c t ed
Var i abl e N Obs N Mean St d Dev Mean St d Dev DTKP 6 6 7479317 243142 7571327 283169
STKJ 6 6 61653026 1912528 56526198 501544 STKS 6 6 20819081 785985 20954560 1056675
STKK 6 6 5588626 239910 5606818 173510 STKSL 6 6 6824794 312097 6866735 348423
STKP 6 6 7976817 311199 7719890 386443 UJ 6 6 6121954 660358 992114 1476736
US 6 6 2005410 351516 2015160 492891 UK 6 6 415710 80602. 9 374417 73332. 2
USL 6 6 787094 99476. 0 421750 280569 UP 6 6 497347 69245. 2 148563 194129
WJ 6 6 475908 56603. 3 521179 51341. 7 WS 6 6 429424 16622. 6 424125 26318. 9
WK 6 6 559394 26917. 5 559989 22606. 7 WSL 6 6 447447 70007. 4 458258 51140. 1
WP 6 6 643032 140591 632631 155999 GRDPJ 6 6 801720 58242. 9 378961 80289. 3
GRDPS 6 6 260164 22539. 1 322251 47840. 9 GRDPK 6 6 118882 19727. 2 142667 35920. 3
335
GRDPSL 6 6 48813. 6 5145. 8 132002 43802. 5 GRDPP 6 6 70538. 9 16223. 8 184536 34742. 5
DI CJ 6 6 795451 57921. 6 372692 80040. 7 DI CS 6 6 259020 22479. 3 321106 47780. 1
DI CK 6 6 118535 19730. 7 142320 35921. 6 DI CSL 6 6 48532. 4 5150. 4 131721 43816. 3
DI CP 6 6 69868. 4 16151. 8 183866 34679. 8 CONJ 6 6 558482 50431. 6 263657 58804. 2
CONS 6 6 175812 32028. 4 199128 36237. 8 CONK 6 6 50579. 0 9018. 4 60328. 9 13959. 7
CONSL 6 6 59846. 5 9402. 1 98141. 0 35332. 0 CONP 6 6 79926. 9 22939. 2 79969. 9 17839. 6
I NVJ 6 6 73401. 2 23914. 0 78922. 2 13034. 9 I NVS 6 6 15042. 0 4862. 9 20697. 2 6508. 7
I NVK 6 6 8700. 7 5107. 0 9495. 5 2713. 0 I NVSL 6 6 8003. 0 6593. 5 21168. 6 32462. 7
I NVP 6 6 15372. 0 19650. 1 77520. 5 15636. 3 DEVJ 2 6 6 8883558 3088127 8044661 1878296
DEVS2 6 6 1235373 610827 1039811 331656 DEVK2 6 6 1950072 969969 1398792 831447
DEVSL2 6 6 31402. 0 14656. 1 22879. 5 12438. 1 DEVP2 6 6 1414979 661811 1242695 220978
336
The SAS Sy s t em The SI MNLI N Pr oc edur e
Dy nami c Si mul t aneous Si mul at i on Sol ut i on Range Tahun = 2001 To 2006
St at i s t i c s of f i t Mean Mean Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS
Var i abl e N Er r or Er r or Er r or Er r or Er r or Er r or MI GSJ 6 7649. 5 0. 4837 7685. 7 0. 4860 9080. 2 0. 5740
MI GKJ 6 1042. 3 0. 4017 1623. 7 0. 6454 1779. 7 0. 7022 MI GSLJ 6 1782. 7 0. 8649 2464. 5 1. 2061 2565. 9 1. 2559
MI GPJ 6 14975. 0 6. 3305 14975. 0 6. 3305 15265. 2 6. 4316 MI GI N 6 - 7809046 - 77. 2052 7809046 77. 2052 7836327 77. 2187
MI GI NS 6 591250 15. 7286 591250 15. 7286 628463 16. 6528 MI GI NK 6 - 1068. 5 - 0. 0581 4241. 3 0. 2470 4966. 6 0. 2888
MI GI NSL 6 17787. 6 2. 6652 17787. 6 2. 6652 23320. 4 3. 4895 MI GI NP 6 - 186067 - 23. 6897 186067 23. 6897 200416 25. 2689
MI GJ S 6 591250 16. 8293 591250 16. 8293 628463 17. 8235 MI GJ K 6 - 1068. 5 - 0. 0846 4241. 3 0. 3491 4966. 6 0. 4084
MI GJ SL 6 17787. 6 4. 9781 17787. 6 4. 9781 23320. 4 6. 5035 MI GJ P 6 - 186067 - 35. 9922 186067 35. 9922 200416 38. 6028
MI GOUT 6 421878 7. 5273 421878 7. 5273 454616 8. 0879 MI GOUTS 6 7649. 5 0. 4407 7685. 7 0. 4428 9080. 2 0. 5229
MI GOUTK 6 1042. 3 0. 3023 1623. 7 0. 4931 1779. 7 0. 5348 MI GOUTSL 6 1782. 7 0. 2131 2464. 5 0. 2886 2565. 9 0. 3006
MI GOUTP 6 14975. 0 2. 2257 14975. 0 2. 2257 15265. 2 2. 2660 MI GJ M 6 103368 209. 9 103368 209. 9 104804 220. 7
MI GJ AS 6 88288. 2 58. 7219 88288. 2 58. 7219 95651. 5 68. 4278 MI GJ SP 6 - 1399. 0 1. 3621 2631. 8 46. 3625 3642. 0 63. 0715
MI GJ H 6 - 2035. 6 - 18. 0375 2757. 8 73. 2965 2906. 9 88. 3057 MI GEXJ 6 151649 58. 0551 151649 58. 0551 157445 61. 3654
MI GSM 6 2482. 5 12. 6482 7493. 5 29. 9898 8035. 7 33. 5892 MI GSAS 6 - 10. 7697 - 2. 5074 29. 6992 15. 1227 35. 8043 17. 5647
MI GSSP 6 - 299. 4 25. 1807 1181. 5 52. 0667 1422. 6 71. 7623 MI GSH 6 - 734. 7 1. 5956 1225. 1 69. 1807 1293. 5 96. 2988
MI GEXS 6 - 4722. 7 - 4. 6812 10795. 2 27. 8109 12045. 4 31. 0275 MI GKM 6 2028. 2 15. 0078 7898. 7 23. 0831 9711. 0 31. 3155
MI GKAS 6 - 35. 8299 2. 8534 135. 7 24. 0335 165. 0 31. 0483 MI GKSP 6 - 4139. 8 - 127. 6 4555. 0 151. 1 5867. 7 255. 8
MI GKH 6 - 213. 1 26. 0454 1110. 6 52. 3845 1310. 3 93. 0753 MI GEXK 6 - 11393. 9 - 11. 4162 14408. 0 20. 2448 19260. 5 23. 9636
MI GSLM 6 55. 0295 18. 9617 128. 8 25. 7404 146. 2 34. 4101 MI GSLAS 6 - 10. 6472 0. 4606 33. 9521 27. 1660 36. 7183 30. 9937
MI GSLSP 6 - 11. 4051 15. 0588 29. 8658 49. 2876 35. 5250 53. 5731 MI GSLH 6 8. 6384 55. 4312 19. 1682 66. 4057 23. 5099 124. 5
MI GEXSL 6 - 115. 4 - 5. 5684 182. 1 15. 0581 225. 7 16. 9670 MI GPM 6 - 9018. 5 - 50. 7342 9464. 3 55. 1537 10947. 7 73. 8843
MI GPAS 6 - 1611. 0 - 14. 3747 2340. 8 23. 5104 2691. 5 27. 0568 MI GPSP 6 - 229. 7 15. 1551 890. 5 45. 3344 1171. 0 64. 6375
MI GPH 6 - 727. 3 - 26. 3681 827. 9 47. 4892 906. 0 49. 6221 MI GEXP 6 - 17183. 2 - 46. 9108 17183. 2 46. 9108 18124. 6 52. 9065
DTKJ 6 3193. 5 0. 0208 426273 0. 7733 544879 0. 9965 DTKS 6 125827 0. 6525 221161 1. 1654 246150 1. 2898
DTKK 6 59543. 7 1. 1899 83507. 1 1. 6490 103542 2. 0789 DTKSL 6 407199 6. 7223 407199 6. 7223 515507 8. 4726
St at i s t i c s of f i t Mean Mean Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS
Var i abl e N Er r or Er r or Er r or Er r or Er r or Er r or DTKP 6 92009. 9 1. 2517 147964 1. 9866 224147 3. 0256
STKJ 6 - 5126828 - 8. 2224 5126828 8. 2224 5574792 8. 8599 STKS 6 135479 0. 6127 273280 1. 3041 317559 1. 5093
STKK 6 18192. 6 0. 3791 80529. 8 1. 4686 96905. 3 1. 7786 STKSL 6 41941. 0 0. 6258 148368 2. 2176 174970 2. 6593
STKP 6 - 256927 - 3. 2388 272901 3. 4423 305759 3. 8864 UJ 6 - 5129839 - 81. 4759 5129839 81. 4759 5485056 84. 8912
US 6 9749. 4 - 0. 6830 126562 7. 3084 168222 10. 6743 UK 6 - 41293. 2 - 9. 8265 43649. 4 10. 3845 53385. 3 12. 4871
USL 6 - 365344 - 45. 3030 365344 45. 3030 461701 55. 6489 UP 6 - 348784 - 73. 1994 348784 73. 1994 372599 79. 7557
WJ 6 45271. 4 11. 3392 84244. 7 18. 5118 98072. 3 22. 2705 WS 6 - 5299. 0 - 1. 2193 17275. 8 3. 9484 20743. 1 4. 7025
WK 6 595. 4 0. 2739 26570. 1 4. 7246 29967. 8 5. 2989 WSL 6 10811. 8 3. 0569 20095. 7 4. 8554 24697. 3 6. 1913
WP 6 - 10401. 2 - 1. 7699 35810. 2 5. 9539 42917. 5 7. 2638 GRDPJ 6 - 422759 - 52. 6455 422759 52. 6455 430594 53. 3490
GRDPS 6 62086. 5 23. 3930 62086. 5 23. 3930 66946. 2 24. 7150 GRDPK 6 23784. 4 18. 7391 23784. 4 18. 7391 28239. 7 20. 9859
337
GRDPSL 6 83188. 1 168. 5 83188. 1 168. 5 91245. 8 183. 5 GRDPP 6 113997 164. 9 113997 164. 9 115695 166. 5
DI CJ 6 - 422759 - 53. 0590 422759 53. 0590 430594 53. 7662 DI CS 6 62086. 5 23. 4960 62086. 5 23. 4960 66946. 2 24. 8231
DI CK 6 23784. 4 18. 7921 23784. 4 18. 7921 28239. 7 21. 0424 DI CSL 6 83188. 1 169. 4 83188. 1 169. 4 91245. 8 184. 5
DI CP 6 113997 166. 5 113997 166. 5 115695 168. 2 CONJ 6 - 294825 - 52. 4702 294825 52. 4702 303604 53. 4725
CONS 6 23315. 6 13. 2560 23315. 6 13. 2560 23895. 7 13. 4515 CONK 6 9749. 8 18. 6828 9749. 8 18. 6828 11162. 4 20. 6120
CONSL 6 38294. 5 60. 5714 38294. 5 60. 5714 45811. 1 70. 3977 CONP 6 42. 9206 2. 0351 7463. 3 9. 1601 8651. 1 10. 0582
I NVJ 6 5521. 0 17. 4495 21019. 6 31. 4714 26421. 7 39. 5716 I NVS 6 5655. 2 45. 7285 6158. 9 49. 0135 8288. 3 72. 0318
I NVK 6 794. 8 61. 2641 3813. 8 81. 3530 4935. 7 144. 0 I NVSL 6 13165. 6 381. 1 25419. 1 693. 0 33367. 1 105. 4
I NVP 6 62148. 5 1445. 7 62148. 5 1445. 7 65586. 5 195. 3 DEVJ 2 6 - 838897 - 2. 6316 1617466 19. 7643 2154318 26. 5119
DEVS2 6 - 195562 - 3. 1636 318954 29. 2643 367059 35. 6507 DEVK2 6 - 551279 - 30. 6573 551279 30. 6573 672511 34. 4276
DEVSL2 6 - 8522. 5 - 28. 9216 8522. 5 28. 9216 10252. 6 32. 3284 DEVP2 6 - 172284 1. 4756 437777 31. 8338 517699 36. 8839
338
The SAS Sy s t em The SI MNLI N Pr oc edur e
Dy nami c Si mul t aneous Si mul at i on Sol ut i on Range Tahun = 2001 To 2006
Thei l For ec as t Er r or St at i s t i c s MSE Dec ompos i t i on Pr opor t i ons
Cor r Bi as Reg Di s t Var Cov ar I nequal i t y Coef Var i abl e N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U
MI GSJ 6 82450012 0. 96 0. 71 0. 24 0. 05 0. 21 0. 08 0. 0058 0. 0029 MI GKJ 6 3167448 1. 00 0. 34 0. 59 0. 07 0. 58 0. 08 0. 0071 0. 0036
MI GSLJ 6 6583711 0. 94 0. 48 0. 34 0. 18 0. 25 0. 27 0. 0126 0. 0062 MI GPJ 6 2. 3303E8 0. 98 0. 96 0. 02 0. 02 0. 01 0. 02 0. 0646 0. 0313
MI GI N 6 6. 141E13 0. 43 0. 99 0. 00 0. 01 0. 01 0. 00 0. 7741 0. 6311 MI GI NS 6 3. 95E11 1. 00 0. 89 0. 11 0. 00 0. 11 0. 00 0. 1681 0. 0778
MI GI NK 6 24666902 1. 00 0. 05 0. 91 0. 04 0. 92 0. 03 0. 0029 0. 0014 MI GI NSL 6 5. 4384E8 0. 84 0. 58 0. 41 0. 01 0. 37 0. 05 0. 0351 0. 0173
MI GI NP 6 4. 017E10 - 0. 56 0. 86 0. 12 0. 02 0. 01 0. 12 0. 2578 0. 1462 MI GJ S 6 3. 95E11 1. 00 0. 89 0. 11 0. 00 0. 11 0. 00 0. 1798 0. 0828
MI GJ K 6 24666902 0. 99 0. 05 0. 87 0. 08 0. 91 0. 05 0. 0041 0. 0020 MI GJ SL 6 5. 4384E8 0. 87 0. 58 0. 40 0. 02 0. 36 0. 06 0. 0660 0. 0322
MI GJ P 6 4. 017E10 - 0. 75 0. 86 0. 14 0. 00 0. 09 0. 05 0. 3895 0. 2358 MI GOUT 6 2. 067E11 0. 97 0. 86 0. 14 0. 00 0. 13 0. 01 0. 0815 0. 0393
MI GOUTS 6 82450012 0. 97 0. 71 0. 24 0. 05 0. 21 0. 08 0. 0052 0. 0026 MI GOUTK 6 3167448 1. 00 0. 34 0. 58 0. 08 0. 57 0. 09 0. 0055 0. 0027
MI GOUTSL 6 6583711 1. 00 0. 48 0. 15 0. 37 0. 16 0. 36 0. 0030 0. 0015 MI GOUTP 6 2. 3303E8 0. 98 0. 96 0. 02 0. 02 0. 01 0. 02 0. 0227 0. 0112
MI GJ M 6 1. 098E10 0. 92 0. 97 0. 02 0. 01 0. 02 0. 01 1. 7297 0. 4680 MI GJ AS 6 9. 1492E9 0. 74 0. 85 0. 02 0. 13 0. 00 0. 15 0. 5264 0. 2130
MI GJ SP 6 13263886 0. 52 0. 15 0. 01 0. 85 0. 20 0. 65 0. 5122 0. 2987 MI GJ H 6 8450269 0. 59 0. 49 0. 09 0. 42 0. 00 0. 51 0. 5067 0. 3007
MI GEXJ 6 2. 479E10 0. 86 0. 93 0. 02 0. 06 0. 00 0. 07 0. 5484 0. 2173 MI GSM 6 64572193 0. 79 0. 10 0. 02 0. 89 0. 03 0. 87 0. 2503 0. 1218
MI GSAS 6 1281. 9 0. 76 0. 09 0. 03 0. 88 0. 26 0. 65 0. 1925 0. 1003 MI GSSP 6 2023829 0. 88 0. 04 0. 49 0. 47 0. 75 0. 20 0. 3776 0. 2113
MI GSH 6 1673033 0. 56 0. 32 0. 05 0. 63 0. 04 0. 64 0. 4255 0. 2438 MI GEXS 6 1. 4509E8 0. 63 0. 15 0. 00 0. 84 0. 15 0. 70 0. 2723 0. 1458
MI GKM 6 94303421 0. 95 0. 04 0. 61 0. 35 0. 77 0. 19 0. 2058 0. 1036 MI GKAS 6 27231. 9 0. 81 0. 05 0. 53 0. 42 0. 88 0. 07 0. 2540 0. 1333
MI GKSP 6 34430383 0. 33 0. 50 0. 26 0. 24 0. 03 0. 48 1. 0598 0. 6126 MI GKH 6 1716982 0. 75 0. 03 0. 12 0. 85 0. 49 0. 48 0. 2933 0. 1553
MI GEXK 6 3. 7097E8 0. 86 0. 35 0. 34 0. 31 0. 54 0. 11 0. 2946 0. 1655 MI GSLM 6 21385. 9 0. 97 0. 14 0. 65 0. 21 0. 74 0. 12 0. 2019 0. 0999
MI GSLAS 6 1348. 2 0. 53 0. 08 0. 07 0. 85 0. 59 0. 33 0. 2590 0. 1372 MI GSLSP 6 1262. 0 0. 84 0. 10 0. 39 0. 51 0. 69 0. 20 0. 4174 0. 2414
MI GSLH 6 552. 7 0. 82 0. 14 0. 40 0. 46 0. 72 0. 15 0. 3428 0. 1675 MI GEXSL 6 50957. 6 0. 99 0. 26 0. 67 0. 07 0. 71 0. 03 0. 1966 0. 1055
MI GPM 6 1. 1985E8 0. 81 0. 68 0. 11 0. 21 0. 04 0. 29 0. 4965 0. 2915 MI GPAS 6 7243966 0. 71 0. 36 0. 07 0. 57 0. 00 0. 64 0. 2624 0. 1421
MI GPSP 6 1371326 0. 60 0. 04 0. 01 0. 95 0. 13 0. 83 0. 4526 0. 2460 MI GPH 6 820903 0. 78 0. 64 0. 01 0. 34 0. 10 0. 26 0. 4339 0. 2669
Thei l For ec as t Er r or St at i s t i c s MSE Dec ompos i t i on Pr opor t i ons
Cor r Bi as Reg Di s t Var Cov ar I nequal i t y Coef Var i abl e N MSE R UM UR UD US UC U1 U
MI GEXP 6 3. 285E8 0. 89 0. 90 0. 01 0. 09 0. 00 0. 10 0. 4365 0. 2691 DTKJ 6 2. 969E11 0. 90 0. 00 0. 11 0. 89 0. 30 0. 70 0. 0098 0. 0049
DTKS 6 6. 059E10 0. 96 0. 26 0. 55 0. 19 0. 46 0. 28 0. 0131 0. 0065 DTKK 6 1. 072E10 0. 85 0. 33 0. 05 0. 62 0. 20 0. 47 0. 0200 0. 0099
DTKSL 6 2. 657E11 0. 67 0. 62 0. 27 0. 11 0. 14 0. 24 0. 0853 0. 0412 DTKP 6 5. 024E10 0. 65 0. 17 0. 26 0. 57 0. 03 0. 80 0. 0300 0. 0149
STKJ 6 3. 108E13 - 0. 96 0. 85 0. 15 0. 01 0. 05 0. 10 0. 0904 0. 0472 STKS 6 1. 008E11 0. 98 0. 18 0. 66 0. 16 0. 61 0. 21 0. 0152 0. 0076
STKK 6 9. 3906E9 0. 92 0. 04 0. 20 0. 76 0. 39 0. 57 0. 0173 0. 0087 STKSL 6 3. 061E10 0. 85 0. 06 0. 19 0. 75 0. 04 0. 91 0. 0256 0. 0128
STKP 6 9. 349E10 0. 89 0. 71 0. 11 0. 18 0. 05 0. 24 0. 0383 0. 0195 UJ 6 3. 009E13 - 0. 98 0. 87 0. 12 0. 00 0. 02 0. 11 0. 8917 0. 7009
US 6 2. 83E10 0. 96 0. 00 0. 71 0. 29 0. 59 0. 41 0. 0828 0. 0411 UK 6 2. 85E9 0. 89 0. 60 0. 00 0. 40 0. 02 0. 39 0. 1265 0. 0665
USL 6 2. 132E11 - 0. 13 0. 63 0. 34 0. 04 0. 13 0. 25 0. 5827 0. 3591 UP 6 1. 388E11 0. 81 0. 88 0. 11 0. 01 0. 09 0. 03 0. 7432 0. 5086
WJ 6 9. 6182E9 - 0. 56 0. 21 0. 60 0. 19 0. 00 0. 78 0. 2049 0. 0979 WS 6 4. 3027E8 0. 56 0. 07 0. 56 0. 37 0. 18 0. 75 0. 0483 0. 0243
339
WK 6 8. 9807E8 0. 13 0. 00 0. 34 0. 66 0. 02 0. 98 0. 0535 0. 0267 WSL 6 6. 0996E8 0. 97 0. 19 0. 37 0. 43 0. 49 0. 32 0. 0546 0. 0271
WP 6 1. 8419E9 0. 96 0. 06 0. 21 0. 74 0. 11 0. 83 0. 0655 0. 0329 GRDPJ 6 1. 854E11 0. 19 0. 96 0. 02 0. 01 0. 00 0. 03 0. 5359 0. 3620
GRDPS 6 4. 4818E9 0. 95 0. 86 0. 13 0. 01 0. 12 0. 02 0. 2565 0. 1142 GRDPK 6 7. 9748E8 0. 99 0. 71 0. 28 0. 01 0. 27 0. 02 0. 2349 0. 1059
GRDPSL 6 8. 3258E9 0. 57 0. 83 0. 17 0. 00 0. 15 0. 02 1. 8607 0. 4880 GRDPP 6 1. 339E10 0. 89 0. 97 0. 03 0. 00 0. 02 0. 01 1. 6052 0. 4462
DI CJ 6 1. 854E11 0. 19 0. 96 0. 02 0. 01 0. 00 0. 03 0. 5401 0. 3658 DI CS 6 4. 4818E9 0. 95 0. 86 0. 13 0. 01 0. 12 0. 02 0. 2577 0. 1147
DI CK 6 7. 9748E8 0. 99 0. 71 0. 28 0. 01 0. 27 0. 02 0. 2355 0. 1062 DI CSL 6 8. 3258E9 0. 58 0. 83 0. 17 0. 00 0. 15 0. 02 1. 8713 0. 4895
DI CP 6 1. 339E10 0. 89 0. 97 0. 03 0. 00 0. 02 0. 01 1. 6202 0. 4485 CONJ 6 9. 218E10 - 0. 05 0. 94 0. 03 0. 02 0. 00 0. 06 0. 5418 0. 3660
CONS 6 5. 71E8 0. 99 0. 95 0. 03 0. 02 0. 03 0. 02 0. 1341 0. 0629 CONK 6 1. 246E8 0. 96 0. 76 0. 19 0. 05 0. 16 0. 07 0. 2178 0. 0989
CONSL 6 2. 0987E9 0. 87 0. 70 0. 29 0. 01 0. 27 0. 03 0. 7577 0. 2797 CONP 6 74841660 0. 92 0. 00 0. 12 0. 88 0. 29 0. 71 0. 1047 0. 0527
I NVJ 6 6. 9811E8 - 0. 10 0. 04 0. 28 0. 68 0. 14 0. 82 0. 3450 0. 1689 I NVS 6 68696078 0. 35 0. 47 0. 28 0. 25 0. 03 0. 50 0. 5285 0. 2227
I NVK 6 24361264 0. 18 0. 03 0. 11 0. 86 0. 20 0. 78 0. 5000 0. 2507 I NVSL 6 1. 1134E9 - 0. 07 0. 16 0. 81 0. 03 0. 50 0. 34 3. 3321 0. 7186
I NVP 6 4. 3016E9 0. 17 0. 90 0. 03 0. 07 0. 00 0. 10 2. 7763 0. 6402 DEVJ 2 6 4. 641E12 0. 72 0. 15 0. 02 0. 83 0. 26 0. 59 0. 2311 0. 1228
DEVS2 6 1. 347E11 0. 91 0. 28 0. 31 0. 41 0. 48 0. 23 0. 2708 0. 1505 DEVK2 6 4. 523E11 0. 90 0. 67 0. 00 0. 32 0. 04 0. 29 0. 3140 0. 1801
DEVSL2 6 1. 0512E8 0. 91 0. 69 0. 01 0. 30 0. 04 0. 27 0. 3004 0. 1718 DEVP2 6 2. 68E11 0. 69 0. 11 0. 17 0. 72 0. 60 0. 29 0. 3365 0. 1851
Lampiran 7.
Program Peramalan Variabel Eksogen Model Ekonomi Migrasi Indonesia Tahun 2009-2012 Menggunakan Prosedur
Forecast Metode Trend-Linier Stepwise Autoregressive dengan Program SASETS Versi 9
option nodate nonumber; data
D1; set SAFRIDA;
WSP1 = WSPNTKSP; LWSP1 = LAGWSP1;
PWSP1 = WSP1-LAGWSP1; WM1 = WMNTKM;
WH1 = WHNTKH; NEXJ = EXPJ-IMPJ;
NEXS = EXPS-IMPS; NEXK = EXPK-IMPK;
NEXSL = EXPSL-IMPSL; NEXP = EXPP-IMPP;
DEVJ1 = DEVJNTK; DEVS1 = DEVSNTK;
DEVK1 = DEVKNTK; DEVSL1 = DEVSLNTK;
DEVP1 = DEVPNTK; DEVJ2 = DEVJ1IHKJ100;
DEVS2 = DEVS1IHKS100; DEVK2 = DEVK1IHKK100;
DEVSL2 = DEVSL1IHKSL100; DEVP2 = DEVP1IHKP100;
GEXRJ = GEXJ-GEXPJ; GEXRS = GEXS-GEXPS;
GEXRK = GEXK-GEXPK; GEXRSL = GEXSL-GEXPSL;
GEXRP = GEXP-GEXPP; GEXPLJ = GEXPJ-GEXIJ;
GEXPLS = GEXPS-GEXIS; GEXPLK = GEXPK-GEXIK;
GEXPLSL = GEXPSL-GEXISL; GEXPLP = GEXPP-GEXIP;
GDPCAS1 = GDPCASNTK; LGDPCAS1 = LAGGDPCAS1;
GRDPCJ = GRDPJPOPJ; GRDPCS = GRDPSPOPS;
GRDPCK = GRDPKPOPK; GRDPCSL = GRDPSLPOPSL;
GRDPCP = GRDPPPOPP; LMIGSJ = LAGMIGSJ;
LMIGKJ = LAGMIGKJ; LMIGSLJ = LAGMIGSLJ;
LMIGPJ = LAGMIGPJ; LMIGJS = LAGMIGJS;
LMIGJK = LAGMIGJK; LMIGJSL = LAGMIGJSL;
LMIGJP = LAGMIGJP; LMIGJM = LAGMIGJM;
LMIGJAS = LAGMIGJAS; LMIGJSP = LAGMIGJSP;
LMIGJH = LAGMIGJH; LMIGSM = LAGMIGSM;
LMIGSAS = LAGMIGSAS; LMIGSSP = LAGMIGSSP;
340
LMIGSH = LAGMIGSH; LMIGKM = LAGMIGKM;
LMIGKAS = LAGMIGKAS; LMIGKSP = LAGMIGKSP;
LMIGKH = LAGMIGKH; LMIGSLM = LAGMIGSLM;
LMIGSLAS = LAGMIGSLAS; LMIGSLSP = LAGMIGSLSP;
LMIGSLH = LAGMIGSLH; LMIGPM = LAGMIGPM;
LMIGPAS = LAGMIGPAS; LMIGPSP = LAGMIGPSP;
LMIGPH = LAGMIGPH; LDTKJ = LAGDTKJ;
LDTKS = LAGDTKS; LDTKK = LAGDTKK;
LDTKSL = LAGDTKSL; LDTKP = LAGDTKP;
LSTKJ = LAGSTKJ; LSTKS = LAGSTKS;
LSTKK = LAGSTKK; LSTKSL = LAGSTKSL;
LSTKP = LAGSTKP; LWJ = LAGWJ;
LWS = LAGWS; LWK = LAGWK;
LWSL = LAGWSL; LWP = LAGWP;
LCONJ = LAGCONJ; LCONS = LAGCONS;
LCONK = LAGCONK; LCONSL = LAGCONSL;
LCONP = LAGCONP; LINVJ = LAGINVJ;
LINVS = LAGINVS; LINVK = LAGINVK;
LINVSL = LAGINVSL; LINVP = LAGINVP;
LDEVP = LAGDEVP; LDEVJ2 = LAGDEVJ2;
LDEVS2 = LAGDEVS2; LDEVK1 = LAGDEVK1;
LDEVK2 = LAGDEVK2; LDEVSL2 = LAGDEVSL2;
LDEVP2 = LAGDEVP2; LDICS = LAGDICS;
LDICSL = LAGDICSL; LPOPJ = LAGPOPJ;
LGEXIS = LAGGEXIS; LGEXPJ = LAGGEXPJ;
LINFP = LAGINFP; LINFS = LAGINFS;
LGEXIK = LAGGEXIK; PGEXIK = GEXIK-LGEXIK;
LGEXIP = LAGGEXIP; PGEXIP = GEXIP-LGEXIP;
LSB = LAGSB; PSB = SB-LSBLSB;
LPOPJ = LAGPOPJ; LPOPS = LAGPOPS;
MIGINS = MIGJS+MIGLJS; MIGOUTS = MIGSJ+MIGSPLJ;
MIGINK = MIGJK+MIGLJK; MIGOUTK = MIGKJ+MIGKLJ;
MIGINSL = MIGJSL+MIGLJSL; MIGOUTSL = MIGSLJ+MIGSLLJ;
MIGINP = MIGJP+MIGLJP; MIGOUTP = MIGPJ+MIGPLJ;
NMIGS = MIGINS-MIGOUTS; LNMIGS = LAGNMIGS;
INCMJ = MIGINGRDPCJ; INCMS = MIGINSGRDPCS;
INCMK = MIGINKGRDPCK; INCMSL = MIGINSLGRDPCSL;
INCMP = MIGINPGRDPCP; LINCMJ = LAGINCMJ;
LINCMK = LAGINCMK; LINCMP = LAGINCMP;
LUMRS = LAGUMRS; LDTKH = LAGDTKH;
LLLHK = LAGLLHK; PLLHK = LLHK-LLLHK;
PDTKH = DTKH-LDTKH; LLLHP = LAGLLHP;
PLLHP = LLHP-LLLHP; PUMRS = UMRS-LUMRS;
PWP = WP-LWP; LMIGINS = LAGMIGINS;
LMIGOUTS = LAGMIGOUTS; LMIGEXS = LAGMIGEXS;
GDPCSP1 = GDPCSPNTK; GDPSP1 = GDPSPNTK;
RUN ;
PROC FORECAST DATA=D1 METHOD=STEPAR TREND=2 OUT=EKSOGEN OUTDATA LEAD=6;
ID TAHUN; VAR MIGSJ MIGKJ MIGSLJ MIGPJ MIGIN MIGINS MIGINK MIGINSL MIGINP MIGJS
MIGJK MIGJSL MIGJP MIGOUT MIGOUTS MIGOUTK MIGOUTSL MIGOUTP MIGJM MIGJAS MIGJSP MIGJH MIGEXJ MIGSM MIGSAS MIGSSP MIGSH MIGEXS MIGKM
MIGKAS MIGKSP MIGKH MIGEXK MIGSLM MIGSLAS MIGSLSP MIGSLH MIGEXSL MIGPM MIGPAS MIGPSP MIGPH MIGEXP DTKJ DTKS DTKK DTKSL DTKP STKJ STKS
STKK STKSL STKP UJ US UK USL UP WJ WS WK WSL WP GRDPJ GRDPS GRDPK GRDPSL GRDPP DICJ DICS DICK DICSL DICP CONJ CONS CONK CONSL CONP
INVJ INVS INVK INVSL INVP DEVJ2 DEVS2 DEVK2 DEVSL2 DEVP2 MIGLJS MIGLJK MIGLJSL MIGLJP MIGSPLJ MIGKLJ MIGSLLJ MIGPLJ MIGJNL MIGSNL
MIGKNL MIGSLNL MIGPNL DIKRJ DIKTJ DIKTS DIKRS DIKTK DIKRK DIKTSL DIKRSL DIKTP DIKRP INDJ LLHS LLHK LLHSL LLHP POPJ POPS POPK POPSL
POPP UMRJ UMRS UMRK UMRSL UMRP GDPCAS GDPAS NTKAS NTKSP NTKM NTKH WSP GDPCSP WM GDPCM WH GDPCH DTKSP STKSP DTKM STKM DTKH STKH GEXJ
GEXS GEXK GEXSL GEXP GEXIJ GEXIS GEXIK GEXISL GEXIP KHMJ KHMS KHMK KHMSL KHMP GEXPJ GEXPS GEXPK GEXPSL GEXPP INFJ INFS INFK INFSL INFP
EXPJ IMPJ EXPS IMPS EXPK IMPK EXPSL IMPSL EXPP IMPP TAXJ TAXS TAXK
341
TAXSL TAXP SB NTK IHKJ IHKS IHKK IHKSL IHKP INCMJ INCMS INCMK INCMSL INCMP GRDPCJ GRDPCS GRDPCK GRDPCSL GRDPCP GEXPLJ GEXPLS GEXPLK NEXP
GEXPLSL GEXPLP GEXRJ GEXRS GEXRK GEXRSL GEXRP NEXJ NEXS NEXK NEXSL; RUN
; TITLENILAI VARIBEL EKSOGEN TAHUN 2009-2012;
PROC PRINT DATA=EKSOGEN;
RUN ;
QUIT ;
342
Lampiran 8. Hasil Peramalan Variabel Eksogen Model Ekonomi Migrasi Indonesia Tahun 2009-2012 Menggunakan Prosedur FORECAST Metode Trend-Linier Stepwise Autoregressive dengan Program SASETS Versi 9
Obs TAHUN _TYPE_ _LEAD_
MIGSJ MIGKJ
MIGSLJ MIGPJ
MIGINJ MIGINS
MIGINK MIGINSL
1. 2.
3. 4.
5. 6.
7. 8.
9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 27.
28. 1985
1986 1987
1988 1989
1990 1991
1992 1993
1994 1995
1996 1997
1998 1999
2000 2001
2002 2003
2004 2005
2006 2007
2008 2009
2010 2011
2012 ACTUAL
ACTUAL ACTUAL
ACTUAL ACTUAL
ACTUAL ACTUAL
ACTUAL ACTUAL
ACTUAL ACTUAL
ACTUAL ACTUAL
ACTUAL ACTUAL
ACTUAL ACTUAL
ACTUAL ACTUAL
ACTUAL ACTUAL
ACTUAL
FORECAST FORECAST
FORECAST FORECAST
FORECAST FORECAST
1 2
3 4
5 6
898778.03 952345.79
980315.29 1009106.23
1038742.73 1069249.63
1172633.57 1228015.73
1286013.52 1346750.49
1410356.00 1458662.74
1483433.08 1508624.06
1534242.82 1560296.62
1568173.91 1572127.46
1576090.97 1580064.48
1584048.00 1588041.57
1647423.88 1702895.20
1755126.66 1804674.23
1851998.49 1897480.95
138808.00 156243.97
165766.84 175870.12
186589.17 197961.54
201463.38 203237.47
205027.17 206832.64
208654.00 215598.67
219157.20 222774.47
226451.45 230189.11
238543.21 242833.29
247200.51 251646.28
256172.00 260779.11
266696.39 272241.10
277553.04 282719.57
287795.25 292814.18
155105.00 162248.67
165942.96 169721.36
173585.79 177538.21
191461.37 198827.20
206476.42 214419.91
222669.00 219304.24
217640.98 215990.33
214352.19 212726.49
208950.01 207086.99
205240.58 203410.63
201597.00 199799.54
205738.43 212107.78
218833.61 225853.94
233116.91 240579.11
139124.88 146782.87
150768.51 154862.38
159067.41 163386.62
178803.06 187048.48
195674.14 204697.56
214137.09 229869.73
238164.34 246758.25
255662.26 264887.57
251491.30 245049.42
238772.54 232656.44
226697.00 220890.21
234844.71 247090.71
257970.25 267756.90
276669.44 284882.88
4554200.72 5223542.07
5594246.01 5991258.04
6416445.20 6871807.00
7450410.30 7757732.66
8077731.77 8410930.53
8757873.44 8669016.37
8624926.48 8581060.84
8537418.29 8493997.70
9165927.27 9521569.48
9891010.76
10274786.54 10673453.00
11087587.90 11385830.74
11642848.05 11863722.12
12052206.92 12211024.87
12381954.03 3013883.00
3225554.84 3337472.24
3453644.55 3574230.03
3699392.83 3789158.70
3834880.60 3881169.19
3928034.10 3975483.00
3841194.61 3776172.64
3712531.60 3650249.67
3589303.52 3654847.01
3688101.84 3721685.41
3755598.78 3789848.00
3824435.15 3856034.22
3885123.22 3912243.19
3937818.53 3962182.17
3985595.29 671271.00
795352.77 866871.84
945615.08
1032352.01 1127937.51
1208048.02 1250276.47
1294025.19 1339351.80
1386313.83 1467489.92
1509878.72 1553516.03
1598440.46 1644690.15
1674439.00 1689604.96
1704969.83 1720536.78
1736308.00 1752287.65
1840002.89 1917739.29
1988166.88 2053241.26
2114394.79 2172676.55
359043.00 408130.04
435267.11 464302.73
495373.21 528629.20
544348.89 552479.36
560796.32 569304.84
578009.97 601508.05
613852.70 626614.49
639809.49 653454.74
658309.24 660796.89
663326.64 665895.88
668508.00 671161.39
699061.86 722420.13
742677.70 760818.60
777514.58 793224.19
343
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs MIGINP MIGJS MIGJK
MIGJSL MIGJP
MIGOUTJ MIGOUTS
MIGOUTK MIGOUTSL MIGOUTP 1.
2. 3.
4. 5.
6. 7.
8. 9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 27.
28. 369689.00
430253.19 465975.37
505967.67 550796.26
601102.76 635492.65
653429.94 671882.70
690865.31 710392.30
705172.67 703700.43
702959.82 702932.65
703602.83 734327.87
750542.36 767365.09
784822.48 802943.00
821757.09 843716.67
864730.86 885003.52
904694.57 923929.42
942806.45 2828160.00
3043227.84 3156819.24
3274650.55 3396880.03
3523671.83 3605851.70
3647657.60 3689948.19
3732729.10 3776006.00
3634094.61 3565151.64
3497516.60 3431164.67
3366071.52 3423003.01
3451828.84 3480897.41
3510210.78 3539771.00
3569580.15 3598716.49
3625006.29 3649068.92
3671389.01 3692345.72
3712235.70 448275.00
553121.77 614410.84
682491.08 758115.01
842118.51 895774.02
923870.47 952848.19
982734.80
1013558.83 1067755.92
1095931.72 1124851.03
1154533.46 1184999.15
1197457.00 1203734.96
1210045.83 1216389.78
1222767.00 1229177.65
1296649.64 1355595.75
1408272.50 1456339.17
1501015.90 1543199.88
199088.00 232069.04
250555.11 270513.73
292062.21 315327.20
318954.89 320784.36
322624.32 324474.84
326335.97 329965.05
331794.70 333634.49
335484.49 337344.74
344384.24 347958.89
351570.64 355219.88
358907.00 362632.39
372847.40 381704.32
389618.95 396879.77
403686.96 410179.40
173115.00 223410.19
253797.37 288317.67
327533.26 372082.76
391189.65 401107.94
411277.70 421705.31
432397.30 451633.67
461570.43 471725.82
482104.65 492711.83
502211.87 507030.36
511895.09 516806.48
521765.00 526771.09
554284.97 578446.11
600154.49 620068.49
638669.79 656310.75
3648638.00 4067017.32
4293867.56 4533371.06
4786233.59 5053200.30
5213118.59 5294965.68
5378097.80 5462535.10
5548298.09 5492005.26
5464073.39 5436283.57
5408635.10 5381127.24
5467107.05 5510610.77
5554460.66 5598659.48
5643210.00 5688115.03
5818572.74 5934709.69
6040009.88 6137109.70
6228004.16 6314202.93
986046.03 1045610.79
1076732.29 1108781.23
1141785.73 1175774.63
1284502.57 1342656.73
1403494.52 1467142.49
1533731.00 1590478.74
1619684.08 1649459.06
1679815.82 1710767.62
1720093.91 1724777.46
1729473.97 1734184.48
1738908.00 1743645.57
1808891.80 1869688.55
1926824.17 1980947.36
2032591.84 2082196.81
180557.00 200414.97
211201.84 222605.12
234661.17 247408.54
255127.38 259143.47
263268.17 267506.64
271862.00 277564.67
280511.20 283522.47
286599.45 289744.11
304802.21 312722.29
320919.51 329404.28
338190.00 347291.11
352524.62 358227.96
364252.52 370496.70
376891.04 383388.03
595428.00 612930.67
621895.96 631006.36
640265.79 649676.21
693529.37 716564.20
740371.42 764977.91
790409.00 786029.24
783858.98 781701.33
779557.19 777425.49
810079.01 827302.99
845149.58 863637.63
882788.00 902619.54
919072.97 933354.87
945840.20 956791.39
966390.57 976242.64
335034.88 366338.87
383196.51 400917.38
419548.41 439139.62
465957.06 480078.48
494700.14 509842.56
525526.09 578018.73
606289.34 636006.25
667245.26 700086.57
687066.30 680812.42
674723.54 668796.44
663025.00 657406.21
695311.67 728245.38
757451.97 783864.47
808182.36 830930.01
344
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs MIGJM MIGJAS MIGJSP MIGJH MIGEXJ
MIGSM MIGSAS MIGSSP MIGSH MIGEXS MIGKM
1. 2.
3. 4.
5. 6.
7. 8.
9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 27.
28. 576.00
35.00 80.00
18.00 2839.00
10893.00 15050.00
18677.00 9464.00
15539.00 8907.00
119862.00 13503.00
49527.00 63022.00
71412.00 27712.00
56877.00 33318.00
47376.00 75208.00
94943.00 77063.18
80859.83 84656.48
88453.13 92249.77
96046.42 45080.40
42646.00 47584.00
44880.00 56639.00
39051.00 81463.00
90007.00 95250.00
90911.00 40986.00
119733.00 114862.00
151683.00 123519.00
107424.00
93446.00 201163.00
161077.00 191598.00
141486.00 257309.00
196549.94 204400.93
212251.92 220102.92
227953.91 235804.90
541.00 561.00
790.00 1486.00
1817.00 2885.00
4034.00 4619.00
4861.00 5840.00
8561.00
11635.00 13220.00
15290.00 12975.00
9576.00 12638.00
5987.00 2274.00
3402.00 9346.00
1928.00 5078.11
7205.47 8682.11
9744.74
10543.97 11175.60
113.00 95.00
139.00 159.00
245.00 254.00
365.00 536.00
576.00
1232.00 1445.00
1171.00 1968.00
7276.00 4754.00
8087.00 8427.00
7611.00 1307.00
5284.00 4524.00
4298.00 5150.68
9045.48 7432.43
8357.14 8995.77
9056.51 49053.00
45633.00 57065.00
53751.00 70583.00
58767.00
108968.00 122819.00
124866.00 129594.00
76795.00 268280.00
169720.00 259760.00
251060.00 242147.00
182380.00 323977.00
215191.00 266380.00
277458.00 402589.00
336644.38 351068.65
365492.92 379917.19
394341.46 408765.73
305.00 19.00
42.00 10.00
1504.00 5771.00
7974.00 9896.00
5014.00 8233.00
4719.00
63508.00 7155.00
26242.00 33392.00
37838.00 14683.00
30136.00 17653.00
25101.00 39848.00
50305.00 40831.34
42842.96 44854.59
46866.22 48877.84
50889.47 46.00
44.00 49.00
46.00 58.00
40.00 83.00
92.00 98.00
93.00 42.00
122.00 118.00
156.00 127.00
110.00
96.00 206.00
165.00 196.00
145.00 263.00
201.29 209.32
217.36 225.40
233.43 241.47
286.00 297.00
419.00 787.00
963.00
1528.00 2137.00
2447.00 2576.00
3095.00 4536.00
6165.00 7004.00
8101.00 6875.00
5074.00 6696.00
3172.00 1205.00
1802.00 4952.00
1022.00 2690.81
3817.87 4600.23
5163.25 5586.73
5921.42 60.00
50.00 74.00
84.00 130.00
134.00 193.00
284.00 305.00
653.00 765.00
620.00
1043.00 3855.00
2519.00 4285.00
4465.00 4033.00
693.00 2799.00
2397.00 2277.00
2728.76 4792.43
3938.35 4427.96
4766.48 4798.68
739.00 432.00
685.00 1071.00
3045.00 8275.00
11218.00 13723.00
9061.00 13783.00
12901.00 71040.00
18112.00 44521.00
52741.00 58296.00
33264.00 44781.00
21721.00 32160.00
58850.00 60496.00
58238.77 61046.43
63854.09 66661.74
69469.40 72277.06
449.00 27.00
62.00 14.00
2211.00 8482.00
11719.00 14543.00
7369.00 12099.00
6935.30 93332.00
10514.00 38565.00
49073.00 55606.00
21578.00 44288.00
25944.00 36890.00
58561.00 73928.00
60006.02 62962.32
65918.62 68874.92
71831.21 74787.51
345
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs MIGKAS MIGKSP MIGKH
MIGEXK MIGSLM MIGSLAS MIGSLSP MIGSLH MIGEXSL
MIGPM MIGPAS MIGPSP
1. 2.
3. 4.
5. 6.
7. 8.
9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 27.
28. 161.00
152.00 170.00
160.00 202.00
140.00 291.00
322.00 341.00
325.00 147.00
428.00 411.00
542.00 442.00
384.00 334.00
719.00 576.00
685.00 506.00
920.00 702.87
730.95 759.04
787.12 815.20
843.29 421.00
437.00 615.00
1157.00 1415.00
2246.00 3141.00
3596.00 3785.00
4548.00 6666.00
9060.00
10294.00 11906.00
10103.00 7456.00
9840.00 4662.00
1770.00 2649.00
7277.00 1501.00
3953.70 5610.14
6759.94 7587.39
8209.74 8701.59
88.00 74.00
108.00 124.00
191.00 198.00
284.00 417.00
449.00 959.00
1125.00 912.00
1532.00 5665.00
3702.00 6297.00
6562.00 5926.00
1018.00 4114.00
3522.00 3347.00
4010.66 7042.91
5787.32 6507.44
7004.17 7051.62
1185.00 727.00
1122.00 1680.00
4609.00 12250.00
16667.00 20368.00
13539.00 20470.00
19069.00
110257.00 26898.00
65792.00 77823.00
85945.00 49133.00
66306.00 31856.00
47688.00 86831.00
89503.00 86286.62
90431.24 94575.85
98720.47
102865.09 107009.70
7.00 1.00
1.00 1.00
34.00 130.00
180.00 223.00
113.00 185.00
106.00
1433.00 161.00
592.00 753.00
854.00 331.00
680.00 398.00
566.00 899.00
1135.00 920.95
966.32 1011.68
1057.05 1102.42
1147.78 35.00
33.00 37.00
35.00 44.00
30.00 64.00
70.00 74.00
71.00 32.00
93.00 90.00
118.00 96.00
84.00 73.00
157.00 126.00
149.00 110.00
201.00 153.34
159.47 165.60
171.73 177.87
184.00 6.00
7.00 9.00
18.00 22.00
34.00 48.00
55.00 58.00
70.00
102.00 139.00
158.00 183.00
155.00 115.00
151.00
72.00 27.00
41.00 112.00
23.00 60.77
86.28 103.98
116.72 126.30
133.87 1.00
1.00 2.00
2.00 3.00
3.00 4.00
6.00 7.00
15.00 17.00
14.00 24.00
87.00 57.00
97.00
101.00 91.00
16.00 63.00
54.00 51.00
61.66
108.06 89.06
100.08 107.88
108.37 53.00
44.00 58.00
63.00 118.00
219.00 320.00
383.00 286.00
390.00 331.00
1785.00 511.00
1138.00 1305.00
1416.00 841.00
1192.00 616.00
882.00 1454.00
1584.00 1489.39
1559.66 1629.92
1700.19 1770.46
1840.73 210.00
13.00 29.00
7.00 1033.00
3964.00 5477.00
6797.00 3444.00
5655.00 3241.00
43622.00 4914.00
18025.00 22936.00
25990.00 10085.00
20699.00 12126.00
17242.00 27371.00
34553.00 28046.00
29427.74 30809.47
32191.21 33572.94
34954.68 2545.00
2408.00 2686.00
2534.00 3198.00
2205.00 4599.00
5082.00 5377.00
5133.00 2314.00
6760.00 6485.00
8564.00 6974.00
6065.00 5276.00
11357.00 9093.00
10817.00 7988.00
14527.00 11096.66
11539.90 11983.14
12426.38 12869.62
13312.86 197.00
204.00 288.00
541.00 661.00
1050.00 1468.00
1681.00 1769.00
2126.00 3116.00
4235.00 4811.00
5565.00 4722.00
3485.00 4599.00
2179.00
827.00 1238.00
3401.00 702.00
1848.01 2622.05
3159.40 3546.13
3837.01 4066.91
346
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs MIGEXP DTKJ
DTKS DTKK
DTKSL DTKP
STKJ STKS
STKK 1.
2. 3.
4. 5.
6. 7.
8. 9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 27.
28. 3170.00
2800.00 3586.00
3625.00 5713.00
8098.00
12610.00 14840.00
12243.00 15253.00
11791.00 58505.00
20011.00 40396.00
44691.00 47422.00
29529.00 44135.00
24481.00 33580.00
49717.00 57664.00
52758.44 55196.49
57634.53 60072.58
62510.63 64948.67
38956016.00 43797965.00
42830870.00 44519145.00
45267953.00 46016761.00
46704014.00 47391266.00
47558175.00 48310338.00
49062500.00 47834051.00
50787548.00 51940947.00
53094346.00 54360000.00
54591000.00 54713000.00
53972000.00 56011000.00
56484071.00 57414267.00
58375841.99 59137309.54
59898777.09 60660244.64
61421712.20 62183179.75
11736451.00 13070486.00
13640947.00 14038056.00
14463460.00 14888864.00
15264256.00 15639648.00
15717387.00 15954837.00
16192287.00 16074488.00
17202964.00 17491720.00
17780476.00 18237000.00
18283000.00 18511000.00
18699000.00 18741000.00
19129481.00 19517962.00
20138073.65 20465199.54
20792325.43 21119451.32
21446577.21 21773703.10
3017949.00 3404576.00
3436192.00 3513910.00
3672774.00 3831637.00
4007988.00 4184338.00
4292458.00 4366264.00
4440070.00 4498056.00
4861811.00 4965521.00
5069230.00 5066000.00
4887000.00 5193000.00
5076000.00 5207000.00
5338607.00 5335540.00
5558759.53 5725534.33
5863472.90 5986679.76
6102360.55 6214196.46
3807798.00 4214600.00
4522064.00 4568786.00
4717915.00 4867044.00
4859341.00 4851638.00
5019232.00 5217293.00
5415354.00 5062239.00
5683032.00 5797346.00
5911660.00 5800000.00
5891000.00 5948000.00
5652000.00 6185000.00
6245240.00 6305480.00
6489749.45 6593434.93
6697120.41 6800805.89
6904491.37 7008176.85
4938924.00 5705285.00
5972370.00 6176897.00
6211585.50 6246274.00
6348878.00 6451482.00
6613190.00 6784044.00
6954898.00 6641226.00
7166458.00 7063802.50
6961147.00 6375000.00
7155000.00 7283000.00
7386000.00 7577000.00
7750719.00 7724183.00
7831131.44 7929145.38
8027159.33 8125173.28
8223187.22 8321201.17
39869203.00 42486720.00
44200567.00 46039739.00
46699999.50 47360260.00
48088958.50 48817657.00
49007147.00 50205630.50
51404114.00 51652153.00
53489832.00 55312259.50
57134687.00 58133000.00
59819000.00 60325000.00
59861000.00 62343000.00
63347583.00 64222571.00
65277642.23 66348110.88
67426908.34 68510211.04
69595950.72 70683008.63
11980091.00 12775412.00
13902036.00 14377884.00
14796704.00 15215524.00
15625090.50 16034657.00
16144145.00 16550490.00
16956835.00 17263516.00
18126033.00 18524990.00
18923947.00 19407000.00
19745000.00 20315000.00
20730000.00 20819000.00
21276447.00 22029037.00
22427132.39 22848422.27
23279882.22 23715801.41
24153675.86 24592407.61
3081392.00 3330562.00
3492898.00 3573586.00
3738470.00 3903354.00
4090257.00 4277160.00
4381521.00 4498525.00
4615529.00 4800144.00
5074156.00 5187043.00
5299930.00 5336000.00
5187000.00 5710000.00
5424000.00 5629000.00
5766320.00 5815435.00
6151366.32 6282266.63
6413166.93 6544067.24
6674967.54 6805867.85
347
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs STKSL
STKP UJ US UK USL UP WJ WS WK
1. 2.
3. 4.
5. 6.
7. 8.
9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 27.
28. 3891245.00
4119888.00 4606273.00
4678065.00 4833317.50
4988570.00 5005828.50
5023087.00 5204885.00
5468516.50 5732148.00
5625404.00 6031140.00
6165069.50 6298999.00
6184000.00 6510000.00
6684000.00 6452000.00
7087000.00 7100833.00
7114931.00 7360160.55
7506873.32 7653586.09
7800298.87 7947011.64
8093724.42 5002985.00
5625605.00 6143539.00
6253322.00 6293939.00
6334556.00 6442984.50
6551413.00 6708380.00
6901193.50 7094007.00
7020044.00 7388421.00
7289018.00 7189615.00
6592000.00 7552000.00
7747000.00 7849000.00
8095000.00 8311189.00
8306712.00 8368434.88
8492599.48 8616764.08
8740928.68 8865093.28
8989257.89 913886.00
1311245.00 1369697.00
1520594.00 1432046.50
1343499.00 1384945.00
1426391.00 1448972.00
1895293.00 2341614.00
2702284.00 2719266.00
3335860.00 4040341.00
3773479.00 5227293.00
5611538.00 5888982.00
6332092.00 6863512.00
6808304.00 7003876.68
7220202.62 7453088.94
7699189.88 7955835.64
8220895.80 243640.00
295074.00 261089.00
339828.00 333244.00
326660.00 360834.50
395009.00 426658.00
595603.00 764548.00
923069.00 841518.00
928748.00
1143471.00 1169618.00
1461733.00 1803875.00
2031169.00 2077643.00
2146966.00 2511075.00
2501053.27 2521775.30
2565048.95 2624864.97
2696815.40 2777666.83
63443.00 74014.00
56706.00 59676.00
65697.00 71717.00
82269.50 92822.00
89063.00
132261.00 175459.00
212545.00 213150.00
276695.00 230700.00
270054.00 299761.00
516496.00 348074.00
422322.00 427713.00
479895.00 460213.85
481811.37 503408.89
525006.41 546603.93
568201.44 83447.00
94712.00 84209.00
109279.00 115402.50
121526.00 146487.50
171449.00 185653.00
251223.50 316794.00
348108.00 289890.00
302160.00 387339.00
383515.00 618712.00
736120.00 800950.00
901735.00 855593.00
809451.00 846569.79
884524.74 923114.55
962186.39
1001624.20 1041339.89
64061.00 79680.00
171169.00 76425.00
82353.50 88282.00
94106.50 99931.00
95190.00
117149.50 139109.00
221963.00 211331.00
219020.00 228468.00
216565.00 397532.00
464075.00 461915.00
517559.00 560470.00
582529.00 580456.48
585990.87 596938.46
611738.16 629279.09
648770.71 133912.14
135231.90 136365.43
132139.80 129220.87
116695.44 136450.26
155503.86 175355.03
178323.83 169180.80
200464.71 233958.83
265140.35 297563.04
317447.30 528732.83
560863.89 469286.01
427809.26 444497.54
424257.62 460572.64
491313.37 518383.00
543034.91 566094.58
588105.62 172940.94
169884.06 167143.62
161823.54 157238.50
154053.11 163387.55
172871.77 190448.81
196290.62 194275.00
205947.28 225318.18
265062.32 308883.99
359213.84 408290.62
445244.44 433904.50
418001.41 420400.82
450700.09 464250.97
478257.79 492641.65
507337.33 522290.87
537457.67 201848.92
196609.00 192008.59
189243.34 173286.42
182843.06 187169.78
195274.18 206340.67
225046.77 230751.30
247204.27 267678.01
322007.27 380148.27
443406.43 553622.70
606820.68 556955.42
524122.94 551002.28
563837.72 585719.78
607686.51 629721.66
651812.10 673947.22
696118.43
348
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs WSL WSL
WP GRDPJ
GRDPS GRDPK GRDPSL GRDPP DICJ
DICS 1.
2. 3.
4. 5.
6. 7.
8. 9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 28.
28. 178394.67
169618.71 162048.61
158464.04 164071.25
148386.56 161420.67
173497.66 196201.23
194356.96 191081.30
205786.65 216921.61
282140.07 317131.47
358384.14 387446.17
382662.49 408859.51
439787.79 516609.85
549314.07 543388.71
543690.69 548589.26
556880.70 567676.54
580320.96 178394.67
169618.71 162048.61
158464.04 164071.25
148386.56 161420.67
173497.66 196201.23
194356.96 191081.30
205786.65 216921.61
282140.07 317131.47
358384.14 387446.17
382662.49 408859.51
439787.79 516609.85
549314.07 543388.71
543690.69 548589.26
556880.70 567676.54
580320.96 165571.09
171982.63 177782.66
166058.01 162132.53
164191.83 170412.19
176198.48 202504.69
207953.54 228019.20
245676.47 277493.56
298422.61 350539.14
398953.05 420908.60
541053.08 661197.55
675260.04 768424.09
791349.96 793850.70
801341.58 812897.34
827764.26 845328.37
865089.57 115933.25
119207.10 129351.00
141321.52 146823.26
164736.14 174616.87
186086.67 216775.71
243763.31 264326.01
287637.43 329671.81
474080.08 505500.36
569491.13 845337.23
773393.45 727447.44
750465.34 861131.59
852544.42 885498.03
921039.05 958292.15
996678.11
1035813.67 1075445.23
55505.37 57595.78
64599.76 63800.53
70072.42 68971.70
73855.37 75945.21
82829.29 88668.93
95389.43
101670.83 113332.26
170493.22 176244.05
192475.88 236123.42
236578.32 260057.92
256033.05 281415.30
290776.60 298392.20
307040.06 316489.92
326562.91 337120.01
348053.25 20195.47
18780.36 22378.16
23022.32 23887.18
25544.69 26845.69
28431.58 33333.83
37648.92 39465.59
43787.46 47097.69
76959.33 79208.49
94776.89
109009.01 102050.69
102834.47 113521.77
135153.16 150725.80
148715.68 149373.38
151824.22 155480.30
159946.46 164957.11
8770.88 9042.80
9465.21 10249.94
10823.66 11693.49
12635.72 13500.45
15460.63 17204.22
18496.90 20323.56
22346.52 36252.36
34244.00 38364.11
45638.34 45027.08
44709.39 46899.70
54033.72 56573.65
57418.75 58835.60
60619.72 62639.76
64811.35 67080.29
9835.41 10697.50
11703.27 12139.38
12513.88 13757.10
15207.93 16354.39
19099.39 22402.99
24643.60 27141.95
29261.36 44441.29
39577.26 44760.29
52475.65 48563.77
75280.88 75580.34
84866.93 86465.90
85503.25 86271.20
88125.21 90660.79
93624.08 96855.79
115244.61 118421.10
128457.61 140344.76
145686.50 163308.89
173202.12 184641.58
215070.78 241514.59
261413.79 284756.72
326669.82 471877.74
502583.30 565663.17
838504.17 767127.09
721666.39 744530.19
854590.47 846285.64
878913.73 914131.50
951063.99 989131.84
1027951.44 1067268.80
55320.47 57398.73
64378.43 63573.85
69835.36 68709.93
73589.78 75670.40
82523.41 88275.75
94911.30
101154.04 112772.77
170025.04 175650.91
191724.44 235023.35
235463.91 258956.68
254944.68 280208.80
289520.77 297089.18
305690.79 315094.52
325120.97 335630.85
346516.06
349
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs DICK
DICSL DICP CONJ CONS
CONK CONSL
CONP INVJ INVS
1. 2.
3. 4.
5. 6.
7. 8.
9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 28.
28. 20146.06
18725.64 22312.12
22955.45 23817.66
25470.94 26767.39
28352.58 33241.63
37531.43 39337.39
43652.61 46951.70
76831.25 79025.92
94533.47
108630.07 101691.37
102498.45 113199.95
134811.90 150380.34
148333.70 148967.57
151401.06 155042.78
159495.68 164493.18
8720.82 8993.70
9413.24 10197.40
10766.22 11629.38
12575.30 13433.30
15387.54 17110.68
18384.35 20199.00
22210.08 36131.75
34091.52 38168.45
45341.01 44721.20
44440.24 46638.64
53754.31 56299.21
57118.21 58516.69
60286.24 62293.42
64452.78 66709.57
9792.94 10646.92
11648.31 12065.90
12433.25 13657.38
15111.28 16249.50
18984.57 22223.52
24433.18 26904.44
28994.38 44051.75
39127.37 44263.03
51835.24 48036.95
74616.97 74857.35
84114.90 85749.25
84740.67 85468.92
87285.92 89785.42
92712.76 95908.29
79783.86 78568.39
85299.09 88919.09
86834.01 97948.14
104149.01 105817.37
135629.29 147720.37
164879.02 181822.98
211521.04 351395.43
417276.48 412984.90
555318.26 537912.85
507408.53 511697.72
612418.71 626136.82
644320.38 665816.88
689658.38 715159.74
741836.02 769343.93
25111.67 25300.51
29239.32 29450.63
29562.48 31838.21
34996.33 36239.71
47075.64 51671.37
58676.89 64623.67
73158.51
117826.56 136028.99
135118.41 133171.30
163113.17 164174.78
168864.47 201968.60
223579.56 221884.40
223866.51 228316.13
234421.50 241637.91
249599.84 6119.95
6097.65 6950.19
7123.35 7227.66
8035.07 8726.20
9078.86
11961.80 13335.81
15046.09 18160.60
20238.00 31336.57
36865.02 37787.37
41506.11 45889.54
44812.83 48279.75
57916.53 65069.34
64666.97 65198.24
66389.95 68048.84
70038.21 72261.34
8809.53 8694.55
9659.46 10163.66
10298.07 11177.80
12180.61 12489.85
16146.50 17732.92
19733.81 21803.40
24375.15 39341.17
44850.23 45838.12
50267.55 55016.29
53953.15 57023.48
68510.38 74308.24
74528.84 75612.28
77308.00 79438.19
81876.69 84533.95
9350.59 9465.18
11255.50 10888.10
10540.15 11720.36
12908.78 13310.40
16853.92 19005.83
21540.20 24141.89
27409.95 44472.52
48189.70 47959.65
52126.79 52613.02
84172.19 84915.55
99975.03
105759.09 103425.49
103138.40 104276.89
106408.43 109231.72
112536.87 6039.65
7202.35 16256.53
22019.42 36972.25
9689.77 16769.28
8246.61 14655.14
74604.10 105176.16
80853.37 168284.03
98860.81 35852.78
94291.50 74066.83
41425.61
110531.59 55005.79
75194.29 84182.96
103293.97 107389.97
111485.96 115581.96
119677.95 123773.95
1193.24 2191.85
5091.86 11473.25
7963.14 874.22
206.73 1862.49
1675.38 22440.12
25669.52 32080.46
87056.39 19045.29
15827.75 49472.87
23298.70 15331.89
9741.15 10799.74
14238.72 16841.66
28700.77 29716.74
30732.71 31748.68
32764.65 33780.62
350
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs INVK
INVSL INVP DEVJ2 DEVS2 DEVK2
DEVSL2 DEVP2
MIGLJS MIGLJK
MIGLJSL 1.
2. 3.
4. 5.
6. 7.
8. 9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 28.
28. 1202.10
1015.85 2222.67
3096.80 3421.84
2690.41 3318.01
4105.92
640.98 9493.42
12179.95 23948.20
18254.86 15791.34
5767.09 4532.47
4790.51 15128.26
7057.24 2393.01
8540.33 14294.68
13750.55 13663.33
13822.42 14114.27
14477.69 14879.70
-26.85 416.97
1044.30 695.22
1026.54 239.90
557.99 314.39
409.02
5356.63 8206.84
11541.96 5604.17
12467.25 2168.18
23643.30 14493.45
4434.92 18221.07
3055.06 3729.89
4083.48 11586.56
12113.12 12639.68
13166.25 13692.81
14219.38 -10.17
269.66 2045.15
4733.34 2847.80
6715.40 6941.06
7652.99 4002.65
3574.30
10646.28 12937.26
7825.14 8381.62
9000.75 11867.81
51781.00 1557.52
24378.81 4500.97
4987.50 5026.35
15864.55 16486.52
17108.48 17730.44
18352.41 18974.37
137033.16 126748.93
219204.15 117728.42
419741.66 399409.34
480005.95 518111.34
675037.13 648334.78
812182.75 976380.61
3937360.84 5872234.96
4665787.71 5633890.41
11686637.55 9785398.27
4372001.40 5823688.38
9862822.53
11770799.48 9842244.06
9017282.20 10901916.25
12377565.29 12050144.42
11828328.45 1990.96
1182.27 2648.40
2253.87
17945.33 53894.35
48383.46 57214.65
48603.38 68315.42
136442.89 258125.80
404184.14 934360.53
881161.05
1267243.00 1588389.88
1136641.68 405999.73
644667.93 1904443.97
1732095.48 1378935.44
1314210.89 1517804.74
1746567.88 1859112.53
1886981.24 3283.76
2025.58 4371.51
3630.01
27803.10 80740.36
71403.93 84285.10
72702.34
102568.45 201672.73
406216.89 613078.61
1419760.89 1358848.85
1962525.30 2574401.02
1797019.94
621774.19 1009640.33
2964535.37 2733058.28
2172312.05 2046814.50
2363881.29 2739373.90
2926751.33 2965507.79
140.79 116.14
212.57 134.27
702.82
1462.77 1406.91
1620.41 1555.43
1964.50 3499.13
6484.04
11373.11 23726.25
21389.94 29792.86
40645.94 29695.35
11024.94 17201.94
46186.78 43657.27
35419.66 33297.19
37932.25 43711.90
46773.21 47539.53
8414.61 7596.58
13786.31 7795.92
32877.95 51897.63
53860.37 61234.34
63595.08 75497.49
124703.09 215225.18
455850.44 871992.04
764142.64
1024008.31 1425451.49
1040048.91 660033.40
947172.36 2229608.28
2187558.36 1690825.01
1448614.64 1581749.28
1851076.10 2042149.01
2119445.77 185723.00
182327.00 180653.00
178994.00 177350.00
175721.00 183307.00
187223.00 191221.00
195305.00 199477.00
207100.00 211021.00
215015.00 219085.00
223232.00 231844.00
236273.00 240788.00
245388.00 250077.00
254855.00 256930.90
259552.47 262556.42
265828.34 269288.04
272879.32 222996.00
242231.00 252461.00
263124.00 274237.00
285819.00 312274.00
326406.00 341177.00
356617.00 372755.00
399734.00 413947.00
428665.00 443907.00
459691.00 476982.00
485870.00 494924.00
504147.00 513541.00
523110.00 543514.04
562363.10 580118.47
597104.62 613549.74
629614.33 159955.00
176061.00 184712.00
193789.00 203311.00
213302.00 225394.00
231695.00 238172.00
244830.00 251674.00
271543.00 282058.00
292980.00 304325.00
316110.00 313925.00
312838.00 311756.00
310676.00 309601.00
308529.00 324468.89
338248.89 350442.74
361471.78 371645.41
381190.86
351
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs MIGLJP MIGSPLJ MIGKLJ MIGSLLJ MIGPLJ MIGJNL MIGSNL MIGKNL
MIGSLNL MIGPNL
1. 2.
3. 4.
5. 6.
7. 8.
9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 28.
28. 196574.00
206843.00 212178.00
217650.00 223263.00
229020.00 244303.00
252322.00 260605.00
269160.00 277995.00
253539.00 242130.00
231234.00 220828.00
210891.00 232116.00
243512.00 255470.00
268016.00 281178.00
294986.00 295485.90
293065.34 288361.84
281815.17 273724.72
269528.49 87268.00
93265.00 96417.00
99675.00
103043.00 106525.00
111869.00 114641.00
117481.00 120392.00
123375.00 131816.00
136251.00 140835.00
145573.00 150471.00
151920.00 152650.00
153383.00 154120.00
154860.00 155604.00
161624.53 166956.76
171791.83 176267.82
180484.43 184513.71
41749.00 44171.00
45435.00 46735.00
48072.00 49447.00
53664.00 55906.00
58241.00 60674.00
63208.00 61966.00
61354.00 60748.00
60148.00 59555.00
66259.00 69889.00
73719.00 77758.00
82018.00 86512.00
86350.46 86178.74
85925.31 85540.79
84989.35 86009.45
440323.00 450682.00
455953.00 461285.00
466680.00 472138.00
502068.00 517737.00
533895.00 550558.00
567740.00 566725.00
566218.00 565711.00
565205.00 564699.00
601129.00 620216.00
639909.00 660227.00
681191.00 702820.00
704245.04 707062.47
710355.38 713629.01
716613.17 727927.96
195910.00 219556.00
232428.00 246055.00
260481.00 275753.00
287154.00 293030.00
299026.00 305145.00
311389.00 348149.00
368125.00 389248.00
411583.00 435199.00
435575.00 435763.00
435951.00 436140.00
436328.00 436516.00
459285.46 482500.83
505980.20 529616.48
553345.77 568821.94
2743.00 2297.00
8472.00 7209.00
9043.00 5685.00
8055.00 8980.00
14714.00 16072.00
16895.00 15878.00
26167.00 35985.00
46790.00 45646.00
40158.00 52339.00
17215.00 18721.00
46895.00 44112.00
46438.92 48540.05
50641.18 52742.30
54843.43 56944.56
41.00 22.00
102.00 144.00
390.00 800.00
829.00
1003.00 1068.00
1709.00 2838.00
624.00 2792.00
6168.00 9829.00
10989.00 7324.00
7234.00 2005.00
2260.00
11508.00 6629.00
10459.05 10965.47
7550.79 10295.72
9243.36 9640.16
66.00 37.00
167.00 225.00
591.00 1185.00
1232.00 1489.00
1595.00 2539.00
4195.00 6526.00
4147.00 9114.00
14504.00 16201.00
10818.00 10712.00
2548.00 3352.00
16965.00 9807.00
12658.44 13292.71
13926.98 14561.26
15195.53 15829.80
3.00 2.00
9.00 9.00
15.00 21.00
24.00 28.00
34.00 48.00
73.00
106.00 79.00
158.00 243.00
267.00 185.00
193.00
49.00 62.00
279.00 174.00
216.48 227.16
237.84 248.52
259.19 269.87
177.00 141.00
532.00 486.00
732.00 787.00
932.00
1085.00 1443.00
1892.00 2594.00
3463.00 3085.00
5596.00 8329.00
8939.00 6502.00
7130.00 1958.00
2360.00 9311.00
6318.00 7577.36
7944.60 8311.83
8679.06 9046.30
9413.53
352
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs DIKRJ DIKTJ DIKRS DIKTS DIKRK DIKTK DIKRSL DIKTSL
DIKRP 1.
2. 3.
4. 5.
6. 7.
8. 9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 28.
28. 19536156.00
19592369.00 19648582.00
19996585.00 19588938.00
19580669.00 19620921.00
19558614.00 19638612.00
19759202.00 19963626.00
20290641.00 20228502.00
20174692.00 20298800.00
20323681.00 20418114.00
20496840.00 20627748.00
20588417.00 20790782.00
20993147.00 20947285.01
20955459.34 20991416.18
21041657.26 21099242.52
21160603.76 601039.00
693727.00 786414.00
879102.00 971789.00
1063807.00 1155824.00
1274460.00 1393095.00
1473633.00 1559117.00
1644600.00 1706620.00
1768640.00 1771930.00
1775220.00 2056158.00
2363279.00 2670400.00
2977521.00 3284642.00
3591763.00 3563259.93
3572544.99 3610159.25
3669011.48 3743785.48
3830495.79 8029882.00
8389178.00 8748474.00
8895330.00 8895416.00
8647553.00 6842430.00
8579917.00 8700821.00
8953866.00 9063464.00
9250921.00 9296540.00
9366665.00 9379949.00
9370545.00 9420726.00
9046494.00 9568498.00
9650094.00 9835453.00
10020812.00 9894492.77
9972460.41 10050428.05
10128395.69 10206363.33
10284330.96 188421.00
217556.00 246691.00
275826.00 304961.00
335309.00 365657.00
356665.00 347672.00
414577.00 416657.00
418737.00 413625.00
408512.00 447066.00
485620.00 501927.00
621935.50 741944.00
861952.50 981961.00
1101969.50 1066472.74
1048157.74 1042738.84
1046999.37 1058524.98
1075503.55 1859451.00
1912223.00 1964995.00
1992298.00 2024056.00
2000852.00 1969633.00
1993463.00 2032110.00
2084489.00 2080461.00
1682680.00 2134966.00
2177732.00 2225823.00
2261894.00 2279445.00
2279874.00 2301800.00
2346454.00 2418681.00
2490908.00 2407398.92
2432887.02 2458375.11
2483863.21 2509351.31
2534839.40 21605.00
29221.00 36836.00
44452.00 52067.00
54209.00 56350.00
67301.00 78252.00
100414.00 85103.00
69792.00 80188.00
90583.00
100355.50 110128.00
106343.00 114221.00
122099.00 129977.00
137855.00 145733.00
147217.38 148840.64
153675.60 160524.02
167109.08 172540.40
3026137.00 3087051.00
3147965.00 3067998.00
2914251.00 2797774.00
2749853.00 2671050.00
2667412.00 2703303.00
2757562.00 2859537.00
2879260.00 2936318.00
2992948.00 3020466.00
3046093.00 3103636.00
3136630.00 3179322.00
3246516.00 3313710.00
3304569.84 3276147.28
3227330.45 3182189.03
3147312.11 3130036.46
68457.00 88722.00
108986.00 129251.00
149515.00 160647.00
171778.00 173392.00
175006.00 185892.00
185087.00 184281.00
176080.00 167878.00
182153.00 196428.00
205852.00 219948.00
224044.00 215671.00
201266.00 186861.00
206508.38 221075.67
232369.02 241552.44
249376.10 256323.42
2901469.00 3000405.00
3099340.00 3118039.00
2984776.00 2918218.00
2903685.00 2890091.00
2988932.00 3069812.00
3133639.00 3694089.00
3262746.00 3285689.00
3137984.00 3182129.00
3204569.00 3232939.00
3264475.00 3352897.00
3493894.00 3634891.00
3523556.73 3497159.06
3469239.23 3522840.09
3514517.33 3506851.31
353
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs DIKTP INDJ
LLHS LLHK
LLHSL LLHP
POPJ POPS
POPK POPSL
POPP 1.
2. 3.
4. 5.
6. 7.
8. 9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 28.
28. 45504.00
56804.00 68104.00
79404.00 90704.00
102033.00 113362.00
109054.00 104745.00
141478.00 134298.00
127118.00 118914.00
110709.00 117167.00
123625.00 130873.00
136993.00 137677.00
156625.00 163826.00
171027.00 172835.74
175623.75 179042.18
182866.42 186951.92
191205.59 9088.00
10930.50 11042.00
11328.00 11617.00
12462.00 12715.00
13448.00 14537.00
15938.00 17601.00
18268.00 19705.00
18792.00 19520.00
19488.00 17485.00
17118.00 16824.00
16911.00 16995.00
17191.00 18246.63
19365.24 20512.46
21578.31 22582.43
23508.68 2993007.00
4025474.00 3629195.00
3232916.00 3095588.00
2958260.00 2747670.00
2537080.00 2702037.00
2216212.00 2238081.00
2259949.00 2507488.00
2523920.00 2540352.00
2272286.00 1936849.00
1782123.00 2786176.00
3038744.00 3291312.00
3543880.00 3105147.86
2821151.71 2633429.35
2505606.72 2415052.57
2347686.15 2037942.00
1807391.00 2551135.00
3294879.00 3052572.00
2810264.00 2943568.00
3076872.00 2397360.00
2716758.00 2834052.00
2951346.00 2984166.00
4191540.00 5398913.00
5478745.00 5510496.00
5015749.00 4937761.00
7424375.00 9910989.00
12397603.00 10827293.74
10043358.59 9720265.64
9667242.02 9772488.30
9970486.16 1277330.00
1204914.00 1338317.00
1471720.00 1297545.00
1123370.00 1117556.00
1111741.00 1179183.00
1178707.00 1216799.00
1254890.00 1264851.00
1253629.00 1242407.00
1032783.00 1038054.00
1062277.00 1086500.00
986656.00 886812.00
786968.00 856248.67
884168.44 890404.39
885272.40 874180.66
859964.48 2922708.00
2373254.00 2092672.00
1812090.00 2013811.50
2215533.00 1544928.00
874322.00 788207.00
721076.00 762010.00
802944.00 698607.00
852783.00 861985.50
871188.00 786041.00
745886.00 842176.00
913785.00 985394.00
1057003.00 784691.10
572805.09 402550.72
260979.32 139169.63
30975.16 99852.00
100473.00 102105.00
103985.00 105754.00
107527.00 109269.00
110720.00 112159.00
113583.00 114733.00
116534.00 118064.00
119631.00 121193.00
121293.00 121621.00
124332.00 127433.00
126479.00 127793.00
129086.00 131131.32
132823.30 134364.33
135840.87 137289.85
138727.06 32603.00
32807.00 34786.00
35836.00 36332.00
36472.00 37499.00
38366.00 39233.00
40101.00 40831.00
41486.00 42451.00
43209.00 43947.00
42474.00 39139.00
44864.00 44816.00
45522.00 46294.00
47070.00 47609.86
48247.32 48884.79
49522.25 50159.72
50797.19 7722.00
7770.00 8206.00
8445.00 8678.00
9096.00 9414.00
9684.00 9959.00
10238.00 10470.00
11498.00 11498.00
11176.00 11396.00
11308.00 11117.00
11821.00 11715.00
12323.00 12583.00
12845.00 13104.69
13356.21 13602.62
13845.81 14086.98
14326.88 11554.00
11625.00 12065.00
12288.00 12508.00
12510.00 12791.00
13034.00 13279.00
13525.00 13732.00
14001.00 14193.00
14520.00 14768.00
14882.00 14600.00
15417.00 15382.00
15792.00 15998.00
16248.00 16393.87
16615.03 16836.19
17057.35 17278.50
17499.66 12316.00
12392.00 13463.00
12968.00 13266.00
13645.00 13967.00
14238.00 14506.00
14771.00 14989.00
15308.00 15581.00
15857.00 15212.00
15177.00 15154.00
15587.00 15930.00
16268.00 16536.00
16804.00 16965.73
17140.21 17321.98
17507.91 17696.22
17885.88
354
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs UMRJ
UMRS UMRK
UMRSL UMRP
GDPSAS GDPAS NTKAS NTKSP NTKM NTKH
WSP 1.
2. 3.
4. 5.
6. 7.
8. 9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 28.
28. 67439.74
67973.36 68908.30
69496.68 67619.35
69356.46 68686.71
72093.44 77518.76
101879.80 112500.00
117881.24 131882.36
145751.45 161447.37
192061.12 253132.93
261134.99 250819.28
246813.74 283869.89
284320.18 292660.22
301857.47 311706.69
322051.75 332773.94
343782.96 89130.51
88815.13 88765.33
82632.59 80110.48
76786.15 75080.51
94717.16 98011.30
113058.90 118833.33
121737.96 131502.07
140495.80 146683.16
173819.52 188803.99
220053.69 235366.19
239552.87 281297.31
332871.35 316635.72
309337.78 307964.80
310519.60 315678.18
322562.86 94841.22
90624.79 86963.12
79948.26 74954.05
68862.83 64082.68
69524.71 81898.36
98749.82
111750.00 116137.60
127443.92 138004.71
149929.96 186771.83
237590.58 270496.16
268577.70 270594.73
281799.56 339303.19
335175.64 335116.75
338096.51 343345.68
350289.74 358499.63
65079.34 64369.14
64015.08 63795.06
63001.23 61887.47
61120.68 68131.96
68159.24 83657.69
93750.00 96993.42
105100.36 112522.46
118194.99 145402.44
207023.55 228831.04
233338.65 239568.15
276687.04 307497.23
304247.49 304382.23
307107.72 311816.39
318043.14 325431.96
70164.22 72813.03
75751.79 75072.98
72104.92 72183.45
73629.31 71789.39
80858.93
101610.09 110500.00
114190.40 125860.10
136779.77 136649.38
154376.06 225536.25
210058.26 328792.86
336179.01 372650.79
404004.60 392920.53
388842.23 389863.01
394595.07 402028.36
411427.69 7222.70
5856.20 5253.70
5076.00 5389.40
6391.90 6997.90
7091.70 6623.20
6519.80 6732.60
8067.30 8192.30
7017.70 7506.80
8518.90 8027.00
8027.30 8864.50
9971.50
11085.00 10869.90
10047.34 10267.65
10487.95 10708.26
10928.57 11148.88
86.70 73.20
73.60 76.10
83.00
105.00 118.00
123.20 118.50
120.20 127.80
157.70 165.00
146.00 161.20
188.70 183.30
188.80 214.70
248.80 284.90
287.70 281.26
281.65 285.94
292.44 300.21
308.71 374.10
399.48 424.86
450.24 475.62
501.00 523.00
543.00 563.00
583.00 607.00
624.00
1492.00 1960.00
1816.00 2476.00
2685.00 2371.00
2262.00 2471.00
2625.00 2425.00
2566.34 2787.82
2951.74 3096.63
3352.14 3562.18
536.00 761.00
833.00 896.00
955.00
1091.00 1228.00
1268.00 1325.00
1508.00 1627.00
1700.00 3380.00
6259.00 4347.00
5540.00 5620.88
5154.23 4976.50
5685.45 5906.57
5878.73 6392.81
6801.78 7159.74
7492.95 7814.15
8129.53 449.00
498.00 636.00
647.00 655.00
684.00 730.00
791.00 786.00
860.00 910.00
944.00
1198.00 2112.00
1816.00 2525.00
2736.00 3253.00
2258.00 2445.00
2650.00 2554.00
2800.61 2992.36
3154.71 3301.29
3439.43 3573.04
148.00 217.00
217.00 226.00
234.00 248.00
259.00 270.00
276.00 287.00
302.00 311.00
730.00
1036.00 914.00
1230.00 1333.00
1146.00 1090.00
1195.00 1303.00
1161.00 1252.32
1376.88 1464.01
1526.68 1664.42
1764.72 1103.80
1139.80 1175.80
1272.70 1397.90
1527.80 1668.80
1803.90 1917.70
2085.60 2218.60
2347.10 2480.30
2740.00 2813.00
3063.00 3134.00
3158.00 3213.00
3329.00 3444.00
3559.00 3718.29
3865.95 4006.30
4142.05 4274.91
4405.95
355
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs GDPCSP WM GDPCM WH
GDPCH DTKSP
STKSP DTKM STKM DTKH
STKH GEXJ
1. 2.
3. 4.
5. 6.
7. 8.
9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 28.
28. 6532.30
6599.70 7429.00
8945.00
10284.40 12281.10
13994.80 15603.60
17859.10 20976.60
24205.20 25511.50
25526.20 21227.20
21198.10 23041.80
20774.40 21162.50
21765.20 24740.50
26480.80 28033.50
29884.68 31690.62
33402.83 34392.79
35163.04 35814.95
638.00 636.00
627.00 620.00
640.00 660.00
719.00 794.00
848.00 928.00
1002.00 1115.00
1210.00 1305.00
1346.50 1388.00
1531.00 1674.00
1817.00 1960.00
2257.50 2555.00
2469.00 2442.30
2454.15 2491.06
2544.27 2608.06
1989.80 1721.60
1911.80 2048.20
2182.80 2432.00
2680.90 3152.70
3419.30 3703.40
4293.70 4764.10
4623.40 3254.10
3484.90 3844.20
3664.70 3880.00
4150.70 4624.60
4930.10 5239.00
5305.88 5396.81
5504.44 5623.66
5750.91 5883.75
4692.00 5070.00
6078.00 7590.00
9315.00
10743.00 11679.00
12708.00 13977.00
15171.00 16869.00
18423.00 20976.00
24129.00 24303.00
24429.00 24189.00
23841.00 23928.00
22353.00 21159.00
19965.00 22607.81
24851.05 26791.22
28501.53 30037.50
31441.22 6368.10
7229.90 8850.80
10328.00 11800.40
13114.60 14986.20
17363.60 19673.50
21774.60 22601.60
24211.60 26649.60
25099.70 24201.00
24638.20 24089.50
23466.50 22760.20
23667.20 24626.00
25710.70 27320.55
29301.22 31204.28
33022.10 34728.33
36194.58 1234.50
1214.40 1266.80
1333.00 1394.00
1537.00 1524.00
1576.00 1592.00
1649.00 1702.00
1748.10 1830.50
1869.70 1885.90
2095.00 2046.70
2017.40 2033.70
2066.90 2266.70
2466.50 2346.91
2399.41 2451.91
2504.41 2556.91
2609.41 1204.00
1228.60 1251.70
1378.00 1425.00
1563.00 1554.00
1620.00 1636.00
1693.00 1749.00
1802.00 1876.00
1932.00 1976.00
2192.00 2120.00
2128.50 2150.10
2183.30 2367.30
2551.30 2467.54
2525.66 2583.79
2641.91 2700.03
2758.16 5653.30
5760.10 5983.90
6176.00 6390.00
6686.00 6891.00
7096.00 7396.00
7603.00 7645.00
8399.00 8569.00
8600.00 8838.00
9269.00 9357.00
9542.00 9870.00
9987.00
10044.00 10220.40
10689.75 10923.73
11157.72 11391.71
11625.69 11859.68
6275.80 5983.90
6175.80 6658.00
6850.00 7042.00
7204.00 7370.00
7627.00 7834.00
7893.00 8616.00
8784.00 8884.00
9152.00 9556.00
9699.00 9886.00
10240.00 10353.00
10411.00 10695.50
11014.26 11247.95
11481.64 11715.33
11949.02 12182.71
2543.30 2623.70
2680.00 2725.00
2723.10 2711.50
2753.70 2737.60
2800.10 2872.80
2905.10 3073.30
3163.60 3122.00
3112.10 3207.30
3235.30 3231.60
3219.10 3276.50
3340.80 3405.10
3441.85 3479.91
3518.75 3558.08
3597.71 3637.52
2626.90 2701.50
2736.00 2778.60
2778.50 2777.90
2798.80 2793.00
2873.00 2972.60
3000.70 3093.80
3216.00 3358.60
3370.65 3382.70
3427.10 3487.90
3500.90 3551.00
3601.10 3651.20
3693.09 3750.54
3807.27 3863.48
3919.28 3977.52
4872.01 5458.54
5220.32 5385.54
5649.59 6858.94
7336.70 8209.11
8746.68 9484.17
9467.00
11347.02 12416.11
11318.34 15532.95
14161.35 38051.74
38315.36 40883.31
39566.60 44651.67
43601.99 44122.57
45110.23 46419.54
47950.33 49633.62
51421.93
356
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs GEXS GEXK GEXSL GEXP GEXIJ
GEXIS GEXIK
GEXISL GEXIP
KHMJ KHMS
KHMK 1.
2. 3.
4. 5.
6. 7.
8. 9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 28.
28. 2158.20
2479.80 2555.02
2259.85 2499.42
3058.63 3480.87
3816.65 4217.12
4169.71 5370.84
4864.68 5429.59
5564.55 6586.86
6813.84
16454.04 19393.44
21774.22 22559.41
26076.65 28095.59
27791.31 27799.41
28053.20 28500.22
29099.21 29817.73
723.06 858.57
759.65 805.24
928.50
1156.22 1316.19
1551.15 1734.41
1849.20 2227.92
2371.16 2306.37
2401.97 3208.69
3151.33 8258.69
9761.05
11338.19 11147.34
12350.10 13000.86
13039.40 13192.17
13435.29 13749.90
14121.06 14536.96
805.87 1009.60
917.72 923.25
1003.12 1210.21
1370.88 1538.86
1649.12 1707.30
1784.87 1878.92
2183.35 2149.08
2651.42 2679.30
5346.00 5853.57
6923.60 6813.44
7413.87 7392.49
7516.87 7684.09
7885.17 8113.02
8362.03 8627.76
900.72 1106.07
1084.66 1004.46
1136.25 1464.04
1630.42 1991.81
2171.11 2352.93
2470.51 2754.58
2797.61 2862.01
3835.53 3904.58
8124.33 9227.16
15308.07 13493.35
13986.30 13284.41
13535.27 13883.11
14304.24 14780.74
15299.09 15849.05
256.61 291.27
401.91 454.99
635.15 982.84
981.60 934.97
893.88
1075.98 889.37
813.02 795.81
717.88 714.85
1048.86 1975.23
2248.08 2157.98
2221.14 2543.99
2514.85 2451.37
2426.18 2460.08
2543.05 2654.12
2774.26 280.79
374.58 367.36
345.00 374.06
618.76 706.34
815.50 894.29
803.59 714.34
682.01 640.41
641.41 793.60
1347.98 1907.15
2014.78 2367.03
2626.84 3167.83
3525.47 3447.91
3413.91 3414.31
3441.88 3490.89
3556.82 54.42
53.92 79.79
105.55 136.59
253.54 296.44
317.68 335.71
436.85 336.92
306.86 299.27
298.24 413.69
764.78
1286.83 1412.77
1425.43 1457.53
1636.29 1741.88
1765.93 1800.44
1843.44 1893.32
1948.80 2008.81
113.81 169.51
141.12 131.79
136.27 228.02
288.08 295.22
320.26 395.89
281.12 274.37
278.12 267.65
321.03 335.73
339.00 428.22
497.90 566.92
693.79 760.88
724.51 707.30
703.10 707.73
718.35 733.05
103.26 113.30
113.27 131.05
162.28 319.31
334.63 383.67
404.37 536.83
415.94 387.95
391.46 384.13
393.77 504.60
607.53 759.08
1125.45 1037.75
1083.07 1035.36
1060.84 1092.06
1127.37 1165.61
1205.93 1247.74
96009.58 98007.30
102070.23 102507.85
102721.83 102935.80
101908.11 100880.41
101231.12 101581.83
102315.00 122980.07
130665.96 173305.64
231137.30 274929.19
326783.98 273791.73
259794.28 245651.67
284123.06 347414.47
345393.50 347336.27
352121.66 358945.65
367231.64 376566.10
105456.76 112449.27
122937.23 116159.63
113556.93 108888.78
108875.76 108862.74
106576.85 100083.72
117144.00 113645.96
128017.25 177140.86
202543.81 232634.73
247723.98 257921.40
271353.05 276364.36
285406.28 380696.14
361406.61 352141.15
349590.28 351537.15
356496.81 363474.58
128596.33 130282.31
135788.66 134738.71
138728.04 134038.59
125947.56 124476.78
122012.52 114477.37
107137.00 130149.88
132903.02 186556.71
234666.26 284623.68
311117.28 311027.66
327111.58 304450.70
301915.05 295163.39
296781.15 302737.84
315200.76 331547.13
350473.91 369666.98
357
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs KHMSL KHMP
GEXPJ GEXPS GEXPK GEXPSL GEXPP INFJ INFS
INFK INFSL
INFP EXPJ
1. 2.
3. 4.
5. 6.
7. 8.
9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 28.
28. 100593.49
104512.29 113727.25
114470.60 111499.36
107951.46 110137.40
106854.02 100380.16
107356.41 114332.65
114073.60 113814.54
159395.06 192812.47
228233.42 256390.22
260754.79 264438.62
257177.74 278141.77
324022.34 324339.22
326630.08 330504.36
335648.80 341812.10
348792.68 120432.27
137114.31 146924.68
143198.77 133283.29
130339.88 124317.92
123193.35 116207.76
112702.12 110443.00
134693.61 137809.96
191848.29 215822.12
238782.42 260915.67
251019.33 409424.07
385908.82 423469.48
574729.86 514416.03
483490.31 470620.76
468844.97 473885.22
483113.28 1235.46
1361.81 1360.79
1587.45 1765.50
2695.21 2845.76
3101.71 3101.36
3503.74 3969.50
4435.19 3654.27
3173.63 4282.04
4099.35
10209.75 12506.68
12687.04 13602.97
16078.55 16296.90
16196.34 16282.71
16511.56 16848.99
17269.17 17752.41
739.57 851.85
711.74 763.93
881.67
1337.23 1601.10
1780.37 1869.21
1754.68 1886.60
2014.30 2221.95
2163.72 2512.10
2824.69 6462.10
7998.88 8687.68
9135.74
10592.76 10026.11
10177.56 10386.12
10641.13 10933.92
11257.44 11605.96
238.24 363.10
250.57 298.68
361.45 584.36
694.41 803.05
853.81 881.91
915.40 957.48
1076.59 951.25
1290.28 1350.98
3591.92 4820.62
5185.54 5566.27
6491.99 7126.94
7021.30 6997.72
7039.49 7133.30
7268.53 7436.76
187.97 319.15
245.60 282.94
306.62 501.79
624.13 672.84
682.79 713.76
741.22 775.98
927.15 763.53
1000.71 1050.52
1411.45 1738.50
2020.83 2300.53
2815.04 3086.98
3002.07 2966.45
2968.01 2997.63
3048.42 3115.17
248.29 372.03
282.02 321.18
384.21 676.43
780.63 955.96
966.68
1047.82 1058.31
1186.15 1283.88
1054.49 1637.78
1773.23 2770.05
3557.06 5103.88
4560.75 4618.71
4289.38 4191.21
4164.67 4334.15
4611.90 4968.08
5333.24 4.84
9.16 9.37
5.03 5.48
10.17 9.53
4.87 9.92
8.64 8.34
5.91
10.56 75.59
1.66 8.37
13.38 10.24
4.04 5.97
16.51 3.09
13.71 13.95
14.19 14.43
14.67 14.91
3.03 9.10
6.97 6.49
5.09 7.54
8.94 3.48
9.42 9.12
8.88 6.58
12.25 80.02
2.11 8.18
12.44 10.62
4.45 7.08
21.05 2.07
15.34 15.71
16.07 16.44
16.80 17.17
4.83 8.80
10.57 5.43
7.28 8.96
9.10 4.90
8.11 8.14
10.12 5.04
13.05 74.55
1.25 9.82
11.34 9.37
5.82 6.79
14.23 7.47
14.23 14.50
14.77 15.04
15.30 15.57
6.09 9.67
8.76 3.22
5.57 7.42
8.94 4.89
10.27 8.96
9.40 5.01
10.00 87.02
3.48 10.13
14.09 11.80
2.99 6.91
18.05 7.82
16.37 16.77
17.16 17.56
17.95 18.35
4.61 9.00
10.37 10.03
11.55 8.40
6.41 5.90
8.45 8.09
7.86 5.96
10.15 73.03
4.80 9.81
11.49 8.57
4.83 6.43
15.74 6.27
13.62 13.83
14.03 14.24
14.44 14.65
8777.66 11169.68
13355.49 16617.43
19886.17 24498.93
30381.84 13009.20
41643.18 43008.64
44826.26 47654.37
126219.91 190181.75
147458.88 237220.29
279423.91 190462.00
158266.25 185537.95
222670.31 228329.81
245012.82 259884.30
273769.17 287116.73
300171.65 313067.20
358
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs IMPJ EXPS IMPS EXPK IMPK
EXPSL IMPSL
EXPP IMPP TAXJ TAXS
TAXK 1.
2. 3.
4. 5.
6. 7.
8. 9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 28.
28. 20808.75
30420.14 31067.68
31861.34 36328.22
50933.60 58020.01
58349.33 57215.12
63029.82 79403.79
79822.02
181190.34 163280.27
111472.67 202425.99
239223.97 168532.48
142144.93 209280.76
259595.15 272692.63
236428.98 247514.72
278990.79 290907.55
294401.38 305974.86
25209.21 27045.17
28957.67 28107.75
28595.32
3173.16 31253.34
30664.18 29988.32
32407.46 36835.97
38726.53 92939.71
101526.64 87168.40
123974.28 100537.71
90228.63 84491.18
97675.81 128363.61
151518.20 142641.26
141653.28 144307.87
148644.33 153757.37
159228.98 5793.73
5051.91 7585.70
7198.10 8497.81
9046.75 9563.39
10348.49 10103.47
9674.40 8541.18
10144.11 22665.54
20681.51 20550.88
29531.97 22980.09
17659.22 13499.61
17602.29 40331.97
60540.28 34252.70
35778.26 37303.82
38829.38 40354.94
41880.50 10911.49
10535.18 10684.48
10518.49 11053.57
12885.49 13331.68
14637.85 14970.80
14784.77 15146.39
16617.03 40542.44
42511.53 40436.25
73911.87 81907.33
55177.40 55270.51
68071.44 94989.80
117625.10 104862.39
100748.26 100920.97
103218.56 106569.39
110442.28 1269.72
881.05 1249.26
1739.12 1740.23
2417.41 2408.06
2350.18 1751.75
2097.59 2661.35
3797.76 9301.44
8469.77 7856.16
11460.62 15911.31
11929.10 12113.80
14994.40 20944.28
25949.77 22957.52
21901.01 21838.32
22285.87 22995.37
23839.37 840.72
981.79 1222.92
2064.02 1989.58
1539.43 1612.69
1463.77 1569.89
2088.90 2146.42
2118.32 4746.79
6136.46 4793.38
6811.05 5919.57
4469.23 4684.13
7545.15
10484.62 12497.61
10979.83 10395.98
10297.20 10450.36
10734.37 11086.34
546.64 883.67
513.48 625.05
599.06 565.95
632.17 606.42
707.58 635.58
732.53 807.51
3069.89 2729.62
1287.40 1545.30
1140.50
432.67 544.58
1537.37 2430.72
3104.50 2565.66
2357.09 2301.28
2316.12 2363.63
2426.25 1527.74
1848.08 2174.66
2412.74 2706.27
3014.12 3427.91
4061.17 3790.86
4154.31 5733.46
6238.77
14323.48 15230.57
10700.47 15221.01
14982.47 11910.85
16892.24 15328.94
27857.65 37204.05
24165.77 25394.64
26623.51 27852.39
29081.26 30310.14
325.25 301.27
162.01 365.64
332.52 422.39
1111.22 1636.49
1202.43 1719.75
2310.30 1257.63
3813.17 7465.12
5654.42 5269.92
5321.51 3630.36
4748.09 3918.45
7498.65
10207.80 8033.97
8952.06 7907.78
7251.11 8767.36
8907.71 688.64
786.00 893.39
976.76 1136.76
1427.25 1414.74
1445.10 1704.93
2248.71 2912.22
2880.70 3002.00
2202.34 2917.06
3827.95 6833.06
6266.35 5781.04
5935.15 6541.12
6258.78 6603.54
6931.93 7251.41
7566.04 7878.04
8188.60 184.90
197.05 221.34
226.69 237.06
261.78 265.59
274.81 305.88
393.18 478.13
516.79 559.50
468.18 593.14
751.44
1100.08 1114.41
1101.24 1088.37
1206.50 1255.83
1285.47 1322.29
1364.30 1410.05
1458.48 1508.86
49.40 54.72
66.04 66.86
69.52 73.75
78.30 79.00
92.19
117.49 128.20
134.85 145.99
128.08 182.57
243.43 378.94
359.32 336.02
321.82 341.26
345.47 363.01
380.32 397.47
414.50 431.45
448.34
359
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs TAXSL TAXP SB
NTK IHKJ IHKS IHKK IHKSL IHKP
INCMJ INCMS
INCMK 1.
2. 3.
4. 5.
6. 7.
8. 9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 28.
28. 50.07
49.10 51.98
52.53 57.44
64.10 60.42
67.15 73.09
93.54
112.55 124.56
136.44 120.62
152.48 195.67
297.33 305.89
269.15 261.06
279.42 274.44
291.10 306.78
321.78 336.31
350.52 364.50
42.47 50.58
54.96 73.48
80.63 99.72
96.65
104.88 114.82
179.47 210.42
237.51 266.99
389.54 449.89
497.26 640.40
526.82 663.91
722.98 752.03
716.65 753.95
791.47 829.11
866.85 904.65
942.48 16.50
16.00 18.50
21.00 17.50
21.50 22.00
16.00 18.27
15.03 14.48
15.63 15.74
16.06 17.62
14.29 17.39
18.02 16.13
8.12 12.83
9.50 12.63
12.32 12.00
11.68 11.37
11.05 1130.00
1649.00 1655.00
1731.00 1797.00
1901.00 1992.00
2062.00 2110.00
2200.00 2308.00
2383.00 4650.00
8025.00 7025.00
9595.00
10400.00 8940.00
8465.00 9260.00
9850.00 9020.00
9655.36
10564.89 11221.16
11786.59 12771.15
13528.25 43.38
46.94 50.50
54.62 61.23
65.11 71.71
76.98 84.37
91.28
100.00 106.89
107.40 107.91
114.36 124.28
108.54 134.30
160.07 175.10
169.98 189.25
186.06 187.66
191.67 196.90
202.73 208.88
45.00 47.60
50.20 56.83
61.79 67.94
73.24 77.89
85.02 92.14
100.00 107.06
111.65 116.23
127.21 133.01
145.65 159.82
173.98 190.97
186.71 193.25
199.18 205.47
212.04 218.82
225.75 232.80
43.73 46.77
49.81 55.37
60.36 67.14
73.73 78.48
84.94 91.14
100.00 105.59
109.31 113.04
121.72 126.63
132.74 149.68
166.62 180.82
176.98 181.20
186.92 192.95
199.20 205.61
212.15 218.76
45.46 49.08
52.70 56.47
61.06 66.38
71.77 76.78
83.90 90.55
100.00 107.10
112.04 116.98
129.66 137.38
143.95 162.83
181.71 196.19
190.22 200.71
206.14 212.12
218.52 225.24
232.20 239.34
45.65 48.06
50.47 55.63
63.27 69.05
73.95 78.70
87.81 92.26
100.00 105.74
109.38 113.01
124.30 133.90
144.08 172.14
120.62 135.72
134.73 145.85
161.61 166.95
172.29 177.63
182.97 188.31
5287658.58 6197518.98
7087031.22 8142459.66
8908253.10
10527913.47 11906096.88
13038391.09 15612265.16
18050907.64 20176703.66
21397476.88 24083506.96
34005483.81 35609878.82
39880754.29 63708566.30
59227869.32 56462536.52
60965623.94 71922934.05
73227624.92 74150811.66
75978389.00 78384218.90
81159774.01 84171725.37
87334824.62 5131021.37
5662765.19 6197893.45
6148687.44 6893508.35
6995871.40 7462858.33
7591117.42 8193981.57
8685433.85 9287528.04
9413716.91
10081321.89 14648833.85
14638878.24 16265346.90
22049489.88 19448220.28
21596165.59 21122916.72
23038000.74 23625584.11
24179364.35 24882719.00
25680399.52 26537564.62
27432242.39 28350576.71
1755585.58 1922394.93
2364001.27 2577886.37
2841665.89 3167636.03
3444963.50 3670728.00
4331239.15 4925292.38
5225567.64 5588594.24
6184710.53
10697705.83 11110043.38
13784809.25 16418901.72
14586359.57 14966254.09
15849905.64 18649567.22
20561694.27 20624867.48
20958178.19 21475209.04
22117187.69 22844143.18
23628891.29
360
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs INCMSL INCMP
GRDPCJ GRDPCS
GRDPCK GRDPCSL
GRDPCP GEXPLJ GEXPLS GEXPLK GEXLSL GEXPLP 1.
2. 3.
4. 5.
6. 7.
8. 9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 28.
28. 272557.10
317474.24 341475.02
387294.35 428665.83
494126.17 537740.52
572250.98 652930.56
724173.32 778575.05
873136.75 966495.72
1564480.49 1483588.59
1684532.51 2057817.96
1929931.65 1928028.26
1977603.51 2257905.79
2336906.09 2407843.10
2492800.39 2586364.93
2685213.61 2787306.30
2891390.55 295229.14
371419.78 405068.45
473637.86 519568.61
606041.14 691954.64
750558.02 884637.42
1047826.90 1167964.75
1250310.93 1321560.36
1970135.60 1828828.94
2075078.38 2542848.76
2338433.90 3626360.31
3646247.09 4120906.28
4228395.94 4183090.19
4220234.78 4310302.77
4434341.30 4580184.92
4740024.82 1.16
1.19 1.27
1.36 1.39
1.53 1.60
1.68 1.93
2.15 2.30
2.47 2.79
3.96 4.17
4.70 6.95
6.22 5.71
5.93 6.74
6.60 6.90
7.21 7.51
7.81 8.12
8.43 1.70
1.76 1.86
1.78 1.93
1.89 1.97
1.98 2.11
2.21 2.34
2.45 2.67
3.95 4.01
4.53 6.03
5.27 5.80
5.62 6.08
6.18 6.36
6.56 6.77
7.00 7.23
7.47 2.62
2.42 2.73
2.73 2.75
2.81 2.85
2.94 3.35
3.68 3.77
3.81 4.10
6.89 6.95
8.38 9.81
8.63 8.78
9.21
10.74 11.73
11.69 11.82
12.06 12.37
12.72 13.11
0.76 0.78
0.78 0.83
0.87 0.93
0.99 1.04
1.16 1.27
1.35 1.45
1.57 2.50
2.32 2.58
3.13 2.92
2.91 2.97
3.38 3.48
3.57 3.68
3.80 3.93
4.07 4.21
0.80 0.86
0.87 0.94
0.94 1.01
1.09 1.15
1.32 1.52
1.64 1.77
1.88 2.80
2.60 2.95
3.46 3.12
4.73 4.65
5.13 5.15
5.13 5.21
5.35 5.51
5.70 5.90
978.85 1070.53
958.87 1132.45
1130.35 1712.37
1864.16 2166.74
2207.48 2427.76
3080.14 3622.18
2858.46 2455.74
3567.18 3050.49
8234.52
10258.59 10529.06
11381.83 13534.55
13782.06 13628.52
13657.74 13824.55
14094.94 14443.33
14850.43 458.77
477.27 344.38
418.94 507.62
718.47 894.76
964.87 974.92
951.09
1172.26 1332.29
1581.54 1522.31
1718.50 1476.71
4554.94 5984.10
6320.65 6508.90
7424.93 6500.64
6679.97 6892.99
7132.07 7391.30
7666.11 7952.98
183.82 309.18
170.78 193.13
224.86 330.82
397.97 485.37
518.11 445.06
578.48 650.62
777.32 653.00
876.58 586.20
2305.08 3407.84
3760.11 4108.74
4855.70 5385.06
5230.34 5158.03
5149.87 5191.67
5272.38 5383.38
74.17 149.64
104.47 151.16
170.35 273.76
336.05 377.62
362.53 317.87
460.10 501.61
649.03 495.89
679.68 714.79
1072.45 1310.28
1522.93 1733.62
2121.25 2326.10
2265.43 2241.91
2246.54 2272.47
2314.56 2368.88
145.02 258.74
168.75 190.13
221.93 357.12
446.00 572.29
562.31 510.99
642.37 798.21
892.42 670.36
1244.01 1268.64
2162.52 2797.98
3978.43 3523.00
3535.64 3254.02
3396.52 3546.14
3701.29 3860.73
4023.51 4188.86
361
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
Obs GEXRJ GEXRS
GEXRK GEXRSL GEXRP
1. 2.
3. 4.
5. 6.
7. 8.
9.
10. 11.
12. 13.
14. 15.
16. 17.
18. 19.
20. 21.
22. 23.
24. 25.
26. 28.
28. 3636.54
4096.73 3859.53
3798.09 3884.09
4163.73 4490.94
5107.40 5645.32
5980.44 5497.50
6911.83 8761.84
8144.71
11250.91 10062.00
27841.98 25808.68
28196.27 25963.62
28573.12 27305.09
28081.66 29064.50
30177.43 31372.44
32619.23 33898.67
1418.64 1627.95
1843.28 1495.92
1617.74 1721.39
1879.77 2036.28
2347.92 2415.02
3484.24 2850.39
3207.65 3400.83
4074.76 3989.15
9991.95
11394.55 13086.54
13423.67 15483.88
18069.49 17456.20
17174.47 17140.67
17292.26 17582.50
17976.42 484.82
495.48 509.09
506.56 567.05
571.86 621.78
748.10 880.60
967.29
1312.52 1413.68
1229.78 1450.72
1918.42 1800.35
4666.77 4940.43
6152.65 5581.08
5858.11 5873.93
5995.04 6159.72
6356.60 6577.30
6815.59 7066.90
617.89 690.45
672.13 640.31
696.50 708.42
746.76 866.03
966.33 993.54
1043.65 1102.95
1256.20 1385.55
1650.72 1628.78
3934.55 4115.07
4902.77 4512.91
4598.84 4305.51
4478.34 4661.37
4852.01 5048.33
5248.89 5452.60
652.44 734.03
802.64 683.28
752.04 787.62
849.79
1035.85 1204.44
1305.10 1412.21
1568.43 1513.74
1807.51 2197.74
2131.35 5354.29
5670.09
10204.18 8932.60
9367.59 8995.04
9050.69 9204.46
9430.51 9709.77
10028.22 10375.53
362
Lampiran 9. Program Peramalan Nilai Konstanta Variabel Endogen Model Ekonomi Migrasi Indonesia Tahun 2009-2012 Menggunakan
Prosedur FORECAST Metode Trend-Linier Stepwise Autoregressive dengan Program SASETS Versi 9
option nodate nonumber; data
D1BARU ; set EKSOGEN;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGSJ=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGKJ=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGSLJ=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGPJ=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGJS=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGJK=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGJSL=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGJP=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGJM=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGSM=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGKM=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGSLM=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGPM=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGJAS=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGSAS=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGKAS=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGSLAS=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGPAS=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGJSP=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGSSP=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGKSP=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN
MIGSLSP=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGPSP=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGJH=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGSH=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGKH=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGSLH=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGPH=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN DTKJ=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN DTKS=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN DTKK=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN DTKSL=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN DTKP=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN STKJ=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN STKS=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN STKK=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN STKSL=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN STKP=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN WJ=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN WS=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN WK=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN WSL=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN WP=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN CONJ=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN CONS=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN CONK=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN CONSL=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN CONP=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN INVJ=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN INVS=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN INVK=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN INVSL=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN INVP=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN DEVJ2=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN DEVS2=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN DEVK2=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN DEVSL2=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN DEVP2=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGIN=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGOUT=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGINS=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN
MIGOUTS=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGINK=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN
MIGOUTK=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGINSL=1;
IF _TYPE_ =FORECAST THEN MIGOUTSL=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGINP=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN
MIGOUTP=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGEXJ=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGEXS=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGEXK=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN
MIGEXSL=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN MIGEXP=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN UJ=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN US=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN UK=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN USL=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN UP=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN GRDPJ=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN GRDPS=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN GRDPK=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN GRDPSL=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN GRDPP=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN DICJ=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN DICS=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN DICK=1;
IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN DICSL=1; IF _TYPE_=FORECAST THEN DICP=1;
IF TAHUN2001 THEN DELETE; RUN
; PROC
PRINT DATA=D1BARU; RUN
;
363
Lampiran 10. Program Peramalan Variabel Endogen Model Ekonomi Migrasi Indonesia Tahun 2009-2012 Menggunakan Prosedur
SIMNLIN Metode Newton dengan Program SASETS Versi 9
option nodate nonumber; data
D1; set safrida;
WSP1 = WSPNTKSP; WM1 = WMNTKM;
WH1 = WHNTKH; NEXJ = EXPJ-IMPJ;
NEXS = EXPS-IMPS; NEXK = EXPK-IMPK;
NEXSL = EXPSL-IMPSL; NEXP = EXPP-IMPP;
DEVJ1 = DEVJNTK; DEVS1 = DEVSNTK;
DEVK1 = DEVKNTK; DEVSL1 = DEVSLNTK;
DEVP1 = DEVPNTK; DEVJ2 = DEVJ1IHKJ100;
DEVS2 = DEVS1IHKS100; DEVK2 = DEVK1IHKK100;
DEVSL2 = DEVSL1IHKSL100; DEVP2 = DEVP1IHKP100;
GDPCAS1 = GDPCASNTKAS; LGDPCAS = LAGGDPCAS;
GRDPCJ = GRDPJPOPJ; GRDPCS = GRDPSPOPS;
GRDPCK = GRDPKPOPK; GRDPCSL = GRDPSLPOPSL;
GRDPCP = GRDPPPOPP; LMIGSJ = LAGMIGSJ;
LMIGKJ = LAGMIGKJ; LMIGSLJ = LAGMIGSLJ;
LMIGPJ = LAGMIGPJ; LMIGJS = LAGMIGJS;
LMIGJK = LAGMIGJK; LMIGJSL = LAGMIGJSL;
LMIGJP = LAGMIGJP; LMIGJM = LAGMIGJM;
LMIGJAS = LAGMIGJAS; LMIGJSP = LAGMIGJSP;
LMIGJH = LAGMIGJH; LMIGSM = LAGMIGSM;
LMIGSAS = LAGMIGSAS; LMIGSSP = LAGMIGSSP;
LMIGSH = LAGMIGSH; LMIGKM = LAGMIGKM;
LMIGKAS = LAGMIGKAS; LMIGKSP = LAGMIGKSP;
LMIGKH = LAGMIGKH; LMIGSLM = LAGMIGSLM;
LMIGSLAS = LAGMIGSLAS; LMIGSLSP = LAGMIGSLSP;
LMIGSLH = LAGMIGSLH; LMIGPM = LAGMIGPM;
LMIGPAS = LAGMIGPAS; LMIGPSP = LAGMIGPSP;
LMIGPH = LAGMIGPH; LDTKJ = LAGDTKJ;
LDTKS = LAGDTKS; LDTKK = LAGDTKK;
LDTKSL = LAGDTKSL; LDTKP = LAGDTKP;
LSTKJ = LAGSTKJ; LSTKS = LAGSTKS;
LSTKK = LAGSTKK; LSTKSL = LAGSTKSL;
LSTKP = LAGSTKP; LWJ = LAGWJ;
LWS = LAGWS; LWK = LAGWK;
LWSL = LAGWSL; LWP = LAGWP;
LCONJ = LAGCONJ; LCONS = LAGCONS;
LCONK = LAGCONK; LCONSL = LAGCONSL;
LCONP = LAGCONP; LINVJ = LAGINVJ;
LINVS = LAGINVS; LINVK = LAGINVK;
LINVSL = LAGINVSL; LINVP = LAGINVP;
LDEVP = LAGDEVP; LDEVJ2 = LAGDEVJ2;
LDEVS2 = LAGDEVS2; LDEVK1 = LAGDEVK1;
LDEVK2 = LAGDEVK2; LDEVSL2 = LAGDEVSL2;
LDEVP2 = LAGDEVP2; LDICS = LAGDICS;
LDICSL = LAGDICSL; LPOPJ = LAGPOPJ;
LSBRP = LAGSBRP; LGEXIS = LAGGEXIS;
LGEXPJ = LAGGEXPJ; LINFP = LAGINFP;
LINFS = LAGINFS; LGEXIK = LAGGEXIK;
PGEXIK = GEXIK-LGEXIK; LGEXIP = LAGGEXIP;
PGEXIP = GEXIP-LGEXIP; LSB = LAGSB;
LPOPJ = LAGPOPJ; LPOPS = LAGPOPS;
MIGINS = MIGJS+MIGLJS; MIGOUTS = MIGSJ+MIGSPLJ;
MIGINK = MIGJK+MIGLJK; MIGOUTK = MIGKJ+MIGKLJ;
MIGINSL = MIGJSL+MIGLJSL; MIGOUTSL = MIGSLJ+MIGSLLJ;
MIGINP = MIGJP+MIGLJP; MIGOUTP = MIGPJ+MIGPLJ;
NMIGS = MIGINS-MIGOUTS; LNMIGS = LAGNMIGS;
INCMJ = MIGINGRDPCJ; INCMS = MIGINSGRDPCS;
INCMK = MIGINKGRDPCK; INCMSL = MIGINSLGRDPCSL;
INCMP = MIGINPGRDPCP; LINCMJ = LAGINCMJ;
364
LINCMK = LAGINCMK; LINCMP = LAGINCMP;
LUMRS = LAGUMRS; LDTKH = LAGDTKH;
LLLHK = LAGLLHK; PLLHK = LLHK-LLLHK;
PDTKH = DTKH-LDTKH; LLLHP = LAGLLHP;
PLLHP = LLHP-LLLHP; PUMRS = UMRS-LUMRS;
PWP = WP-LWP; LMIGINS = LAGMIGINS;
LMIGOUTS = LAGMIGOUTS; LMIGEXS = LAGMIGEXS;
GDPCSP1 = GDPCSPNTK; GDPSP1 = GDPSPNTK;
Alternatif Simulasi Peramalan yang digunakan: Simulasi Peramalan 1;
UMRJ =
1.10UMRJ; UMRS =
1.15UMRS; UMRK =
1.15UMRK; UMRSL
= 1.15UMRSL;
UMRP = 1.15UMRP;;
Simulasi Peramalan 2; NTK = 1.05NTK;
NTKH = 1.05NTKH; NTKSP = 1.05NTKSP;
NTKM = 1.05NTKM; Simulasi Peramalan 3;
SB = SB-2; NTK = 1.05NTK;
NTKH = 1.05NTKH; NTKSP = 1.05NTKSP;
NTKM = 1.05NTKM; Simulasi Peramalan 4;
GEXIJ =
1.10GEXIJ; GEXIS
= 1.20GEXIS;
GEXIK = 1.20GEXIK; GEXISL
= 1.20GEXISL;
GEXIP =
1.20GEXIP; Simulasi Peramalan 5;
SB = SB-2; NTK = 1.05NTK;
NTKH = 1.05NTKH; NTKSP = 1.05NTKSP;
NTKM = 1.05NTKM; GEXIJ
= 1.10GEXIJ;
GEXIS =
1.20GEXIS; GEXIK = 1.20GEXIK;
GEXISL= 1.20GEXISL;
GEXIP =
1.20GEXIP; RUN;
PROC SIMNLIN
DATA=D1BARU SIMULATE OUT=ENDO; ENDOGENOUS MIGSJ MIGKJ MIGSLJ MIGPJ MIGIN MIGINS MIGINK MIGINSL MIGINP
MIGJS MIGJK MIGJSL MIGJP MIGOUT MIGOUTS MIGOUTK MIGOUTSL MIGOUTP MIGJM MIGJAS MIGJSP MIGJH MIGEXJ MIGSM MIGSAS MIGSSP
MIGSH MIGEXS MIGKM MIGKAS MIGKSP MIGKH MIGEXK MIGSLM MIGSLAS MIGSLSP MIGSLH MIGEXSL MIGPM MIGPAS MIGPSP MIGPH MIGEXP DTKJ
DTKS DTKK DTKSL DTKP STKJ STKS STKK STKSL STKP UJ US UK USL UP WJ WS WK WSL WP GRDPJ GRDPS GRDPK GRDPSL GRDPP DICJ DICS DICK
DICSL DICP CONJ CONS CONK CONSL CONP INVJ INVS INVK INVSL INVP DEVJ2 DEVS2 DEVK2 DEVSL2 DEVP2;
INSTRUMENTS MIGLJS MIGLJK MIGLJSL MIGLJP MIGSPLJ MIGKLJ MIGSLLJ MIGPLJ MIGJNL MIGSNL MIGKNL MIGSLNL MIGPNL DIKTS DIKRS DIKTK DIKRK
DIKTSL DIKRSL DIKTP DIKRP INDJ LLHS LLHK LLHSL LLHP POPJ POPS POPK POPSL POPP UMRJ UMRS UMRK UMRSL UMRP GDPCAS GDPAS NTKAS
365
NTKSP NTKM NTKH WSP GDPCSP WM GDPCM WH GDPCH DTKSP STKSP DTKM STKM DTKH STKH GEXJ GEXS GEXK GEXSL GEXP GEXIJ GEXIS GEXIK
GEXISL GEXIP KHMJ KHMS KHMK KHMSL KHMP GEXPJ GEXPS GEXPK GEXPSL GEXPP INFJ INFS INFK INFSL INFP EXPJ IMPJ EXPS IMPS
EXPK IMPK EXPSL IMPSL EXPP IMPP TAXJ TAXS TAXK TAXSL TAXP SB NTK IHKJ IHKS IHKK IHKSL IHKP INCMJ INCMS INCMK INCMSL INCMP;
PARAMETERS A0 -50824.3 A1 -0.28635 A2 0.003347 A3 0.002039 A4 0.994103 B0 -28483.6 B1 -0.02539 B2 0.001880 B3 -0.08243 B4 0.749858
C0 12269.48 C1 -0.03879 C2 0.000445 C3 0.056787 C4 0.839105 D0 -77888.7 D1 -0.05759 D2 0.001350 D3 0.055758 D4 0.014407
D5 0.910275 E0
1428856 E1 -1.35311 E2 -0.05562 E3 0.253924 E4 9.163567
E5 113.3739 F0
-4441.74 F1 0.014055 F2 -0.07515 F3 1.343089 F4 38.01973 F5 0.834580
G0 87702.23 G1 0.039016 G2 0.000272 G3 30.48324 H0 330586.5 H1 -0.54310 H2 0.761621 H3 0.038132 H4 172.2293
I0 -615151 I1 0.027936 I2 -0.23620 I3 53.50510 I4 -1.99678
I5 -0.00820 I6 0.036219 I7 -0.02802 J0
-66160.9 J1 0.008362 J2 -16060.4 J3 12.54829 J4 0.012167 J5 0.002063 J6 -0.02378
K0 -116582 K1 0.016314 K2 -0.26561 K3 46.14460 K4 -0.02529 K5 -0.75449
L1 0.000201 L2 -0.00241 L3 0.171641 L4 -0.00431 M1
0.001240 M2 -0.06776 M3 6.985859 M4 -0.02672 M5 0.033584
M6 0.254378 N0
-533905 N1 0.001659 N2 -0.28533 N3 0.006168 N4 0.015402 N5 0.033970
O0 50.01316
O1 3.121E-7 O2 -0.00032 O3 0.000094 O4 5.86E-6 P0
-431.101 P1 3.671E-6 P2 -0.00140 P3 0.000168 P4 -0.00030 Q0
-89.7794 Q1 5.333E-7 Q2 -0.00015 Q3 0.000030 Q4 -0.00008 R0 -8069.23 R1 0.000038 R2 -0.02704 R3 0.003824 R4 0.002927
R5 0.022117 S1
5.329E-6 S2 1.917251 S3 0.000742 S4 -0.00164 S5 0.721251
T1
0.000028 T2 4.442751 T3 -0.03398 T4 -5.43E-6 T5 0.573981
U1 0.000503 U2 0.922617 U3 -0.11671 U4 0.000547 U5 0.008661 U6 0.607877
V0 -16.8280 V1 7.24E-6 V2 0.088653 V3 -0.00066 V4 0.000117
V5 0.429379 W0
-15901.1 W1 0.000209 W2 -0.01543 W3 1.750368 W4 0.001731 W5
0.002105 W6 -0.00548 W7 0.154551
X0 -15594.9 X1 0.000194 X2 0.000401 X3 2.871335 X4 -0.00327
Y0 1327.521
Y1 0.000205 Y2 -0.01257 Y3 0.125246 Y4 -0.00008 Y5
0.000370
Z0
1917.912 Z1 0.000262 Z2 -0.01046 Z3 0.006387 Z4 0.753341
Z5 -0.01675 Z6 0.084084
AA1 2.848E-6
AA2 0.001556 AA3 0.000019 AA4 -0.00007
AB0 2.507878 AB1 0.000113 AB2 -0.00435 AB3 0.002276 AB4 .659025
AB5 6.859E-6
AB6 0.003177
AC0 20694651
AC1 429.4634 AC2 0.282787 AC3 309.7854 AC4 .422479 AD0
1630637 AD1 10.73352 AD2 0.226328 AD3 41.10451 AD4 .862737
AE0 656436.9
AE1 7.216544 AE2 0.000246 AE3 13.79245 AE4 .856420
AF1
12.06135 AF2 0.907708 AF3 242.8601 AF4 0.759644
AG0 6297321
AG1 1.167640 AG2 0.440997 AG3 281.8893
AH0 -3130294 AH1 0.633899 AH2 0.193764 AH3 -1.97155 AH4 -.63014
AH5 228.9655
AH6 0.740132
AI1 3.829520
AI2 0.200628 AI3 -0.31142 AI4 105.0001 AI5 .692715 AJ0
536182.7 AJ1 1.033700 AJ2 1.242416 AJ3 -4.53027 AJ4 -.68941
AJ5 321.4265 AJ6 0.000079
AK0 -2884435 AK1 0.482336 AK2 2.057315 AK3 -0.29073 K4 -123.780
AK5
545.5987
AL0 270611.5
AL1 1.320032 AL2 1.538432 AL3 -0.37358 AL4
-6.46752 AL5 373.9337 AL6 0.014446 AM0
182705.9 AM1 1.418945 AM2 0.004400 AM3 -0.00884
AM4 0.308878 AM5 368.5751 AM6 0.268983
AN0 -263515 AN1 0.087516 AN2 0.061394 AN3 -0.04226 AN4 .295898
366
AN5 62.08226
AN6 0.796530
AO0 -125778 AO1 0.597685 AO2 0.125442 AO3 -0.08880 AO40.792605
AO5 69.76673 AO6 0.216742 AP1
0.850215 AP2 0.012186 AP3 -0.00464 AP4 0.718127
AP5 353.1327 AQ0
-74077.5 AQ1 1.008391 AQ2 0.023521 AQ3 -0.00857 AQ4
375.1849 AQ5 0.500747
AR0 13157.11
AR1 0.621406 AR2 0.000974 AR3 0.002188 AR4
-1169.70 AS0 9321.724 AS1 0.356637 AS2 0.000520 AS3 0.020068
AS4 -638.237 AS5 0.343318 AT0 -1551.88 AT1 0.331624 AT2 0.000193 AT3 0.000046
AT4 -28.0094 AT5 0.227917
AU0 4298.517
AU1 0.573925 AU2 0.010863 AU3 0.178412 AU4
-302.878 AU5 0.101428 AV1
0.154612 AV2 0.020518 AV3 0.001982 AV4 -162.201
AW0
86100.76 AW1 -3192.71 AW2 -0.02715 AW3 2.431678
AW4 0.351940 AX0
56720.18 AX1 -1707.75 AX2 -0.12845 AX3 3.883950
AX4 0.217850 AY0 7431.285 AY1 -246.774 AY2 -0.00191 AY3 0.012698
AY4 0.583846 AZ1 -4259.08 AZ2 -0.01362 AZ3 0.39223 AZ4 1.580860
BA0
8314.003 BA1 -9.44004 BA2 -0.09048 BA3 0.560636
BA4 1.778928
BB0 -1114170 BB1 3.783781 BB2 125.0724 BB3 0.405247
BC0 -64615.8 BC1 3.822291 BC2 93.04336 BC3 0.372626
BD0 -44152.5 BD1 1.053034 BD2 153.8439
BE0 -1420.23 BE1 2.455797 BE2 139.4550
BF0 -61903.2 BF1 0.239194 BF2 88.81955 BF3 0.685374;
MIGSJ = A0+A1WS+A2DTKJ+A3DIKTS+A4LAGMIGSJ; MIGKJ = B0+B1WK-LAGWK+B2DTKJ+B3DIKTK+B4LAGMIGKJ;
MIGSLJ = C0+C1WSL+C2DTKJ+C3DIKTSL+C4LAGMIGSLJ; MIGPJ = D0+D1WP+D2DTKJ+D3DIKTP+D4DIKRP+D5LAGMIGPJ;
MIGJS = E0+E1GRDPJ+E2DTKJ+E3DTKS+E4POPJ+E5GEXIS; MIGJK = F0+F1DTKK+F2WJ+F3POPJ+F4GEXIK-LAGGEXIK+F5LAGMIGJK;
MIGJSL = G0+G1DTKSL+G2STKJ+G3GEXISL; MIGJP = H0+H1LAGWJ+H2WP-LAGWP+H3UJ+H4GEXIP;
MIGJM
=
I0+I1WMNTKM+I2GRDPJ+I3DTKM+I4STKM+I5DTKJ+I6DIKRJ+I7DIKTJ;
MIGSM = J0+J1WMNTKM+J2GRDPCS+J3DTKM+J4US+J5DIKRS +J6DIKTS; MIGKM = K0+K1WMNTKM+K2WK+K3DTKM+K4DTKK+K5DIKTK;
MIGSLM = L1WMNTKM+L2WSL+L3DTKM+L4DIKTSL; MIGPM = M1WMNTKM+M2GRDPP+M3DTKM+M4DTKP+M5DIKRP+M6DIKTP;
MIGJAS = N0+N1LAGGDPCASNTK+N2GRDPJ+N3STKJ+N4DIKRJ +N5DIKTJ; MIGSAS = O0+O1LAGGDPCASNTK+O2GRDPS+O3US+O4DIKTS;
MIGKAS = P0+P1LAGGDPCASNTK+P2GRDPK+P3STKK+P4DIKTK; MIGSLAS = Q0+Q1LAGGDPCASNTK+Q2GRDPSL+Q3STKSL+Q4DIKTSL;
MIGPAS =
R0+R1LAGGDPCASNTK+R2GRDPP-LAGGRDPP+R3UP+R4DIKRP+R5DIKTP; MIGJSP= S1GDPCSPNTK+S2LAGDTKSP+S3STKJ-LAGSTKJ+S4DIKTJ+S5LAGMIGJSP;
MIGSSP = T1GDPCSPNTK+T2LAGDTKSP+T3WS+T4DTKS+T5LAGMIGSSP; MIGKSP =
U1WSPNTKSP+U2LAGDTKSP+U3GRDPK+U4STKK+U5DIKTK+U6LAGMIGKSP;
MIGSLSP =
V0+V1WSPNTKSP+V2DTKSP+V3WSL+V4LAGDIKTSL+V5LAGMIGSLSP; MIGPSP= W0+W1WSPNTKSP+W2WP+W3DTKSP+W4STKP+W5DIKRP+W6DIKTP+W7LAGMIGPSP;
MIGJH = X0+X1WHNTKH+X2STKJ+X3DTKH-LAGDTKH+X4DIKTJ; MIGSH = Y0+Y1WHNTKH+Y2GRDPS+Y3DTKH+Y4DTKS+Y5DIKTS;
MIGKH =
Z0+Z1WHNTKH+Z2WK+Z3UK+Z4DTKH-LAGDTKH+Z5DIKTK+Z6LAGMIGKH;
MIGSLH = AA1WHNTKH+AA2DTKH+AA3STKSL-LAGSTKSL+AA4DIKTSL; MIGPH
= AB0+AB1WHNTKH+AB2WP+AB3UP+AB4DTKH-LAGDTKH+AB5DIKRP+AB6DIKTP;
DTKJ = AC0+AC1INDJ+AC2LAGINVJ+AC3GEXPJ+AC4LAGDTKJ; DTKS = AD0+AD1INVS+AD2LLHS+AD3GEXPS+AD4LAGDTKS;
DTKK = AE0+AE1INVK+AE2LLHK-LAGLLHK+AE3GEXPK+AE4LAGDTKK; DTKSL = AF1LAGINVSL+AF2LLHSL+AF3GEXPSL+AF4LAGDTKSL;
DTKP = AG0+AG1INVP+AG2LLHP-LAGLLHP+AG3GEXPP; STKJ =
AH0+AH1WJ+AH2MIGIN+AH3MIGOUT+AH4MIGEXJ+AH5POPJ+AH6LAGSTKJ;
STKS =
AI1WS+AI2LAGMIGINS-MIGOUTS+AI3MIGEXS+AI4POPS+AI5LAGSTKS;
STKK =
J0+AJ1WK+AJ2MIGINK+AJ3MIGOUTK+AJ4MIGEXK+AJ5POPK+AJ6LAGSTKK;
367
STKSL = AK0+AK1WSL+AK2MIGINSL+AK3MIGOUTSL+AK4MIGEXSL+AK5POPSL; STKP
=
AL0+AL1WP+AL2MIGINP+AL3MIGOUTP+AL4MIGEXP+AL5POPP+AL6LAGSTKP;
WJ = AM0+AM1UMRJ+AM2DTKJ+AM3STKJ+AM4KHMJ+AM5INFJ+AM6LAGWJ; WS
=
AN0+AN1UMRS-LAGUMRS+AN2DTKS+AN3STKS+AN4KHMS+AN5INFS+AN6LAGWS;
WK =
AO0+AO1UMRK+AO2LAGDTKK+AO3LAGSTKK+AO4KHMK+AO5INFK+AO6LAGWK;
WSL = AP1UMRSL+AP2DTKSL+AP3STKSL+AP4KHMSL+AP5INFSL; WP = AQ0+AQ1UMRP+AQ2LAGDTKP+AQ3STKP+AQ4LAGINFP+AQ5LAGWP;
CONJ = AR0+AR1DICJ+AR2LAGMIGINGRDPCJ+AR3DEVJ2+AR4LAGSB; CONS
= AS0+AS1LAGDICS+AS2MIGINSGRDPCS+AS3DEVS2+AS4SB+AS5LAGCONS;
CONK
= T0+AT1DICK+AT2LAGMIGINKGRDPCK+AT3LAGDEVK2+AT4SB+AT5LAGCONK; CONSL = AU0+AU1LAGDICSL+AU2MIGINSLGRDPCSL+AU3DEVSL2+AU4SB+AU5LAGCONSL;
CONP = AV1LAGDICP+AV2MIGINPGRDPCP+AV3DEVP2+A4SB; INVJ = AW0+AW1SB+AW2WJ+AW3NTK+AW4LAGINVJ;
INVS = AX0+AX1SB+AX2WS+AX3NTK+AX4LAGINVS; INVK = AY0+AY1SB+AY2WK+AY3GRDPK+AY4LAGINVK;
INVSL = AZ1SB-LAGSB+AZ2WSL+AZ3GRDPSL-LAGGRDPSL+AZ4NTK; INVP =
BA0+BA1LAGSB+BA2LAGWP+BA3GRDPP+BA4NTK; DEVJ2 = BB0+BB1MIGEXJ+BB2MIGJNL+BB3LAGDEVJ2;
DEVS2 = BC0+BC1MIGEXS+BC2MIGSNL+BC3LAGDEVS2; DEVK2 = BD0+BD1MIGEXK+BD2MIGKNL;
DEVSL2 = BE0+BE1MIGEXSL+BE2MIGSLNL; DEVP2 = BF0+BF1MIGEXP+BF2MIGPNL+BF3LAGDEVP2;
MIGIN = MIGSJ+MIGKJ+MIGSLJ+MIGPJ; MIGOUT = MIGJS+MIGJK+MIGJSL+MIGJP;
MIGINS = MIGJS+MIGLJS; MIGOUTS = MIGSJ+MIGSPLJ;
MIGINK = MIGJK+MIGLJK; MIGOUTK = MIGKJ+MIGKLJ;
MIGINSL = MIGJSL+MIGLJSL; MIGOUTSL = MIGSLJ+MIGSLLJ;
MIGINP = MIGJP+MIGLJP; MIGOUTP = MIGPJ+MIGPLJ;
MIGEXJ = MIGJM+MIGJAS+MIGJSP+MIGJH; MIGEXS = MIGSM+MIGSAS+MIGSSP+MIGSH;
MIGEXK = MIGKM+MIGKAS+MIGKSP+MIGKH; MIGEXSL = MIGSLM+MIGSLAS+MIGSLSP+MIGSLH;
MIGEXP = MIGPM+MIGPAS+MIGPSP+MIGPH; UJ = STKJ-DTKJ;
US = STKS-DTKS; UK = STKK-DTKK;
USL = STKSL-DTKSL; UP = STKP-DTKP;
GRDPJ = CONJ+INVJ+GEXJ+NEXJ; GRDPS = CONS+INVS+GEXS+NEXS;
GRDPK = CONK+INVK+GEXK+NEXK; GRDPSL = CONSL+INVSL+GEXSL+NEXSL;
GRDPP = CONP+INVP+GEXP+NEXP; DICJ = GRDPJ-TAXJ;
DICS = GRDPS-TAXS; DICK = GRDPK-TAXK;
DICSL = GRDPSL-TAXSL; DICP = GRDPP-TAXP;
RANGE TAHUN=
2009 TO
2012 ;
RUN ;
PROC PRINT
DATA =ENDO;
VAR TAHUN MIGSJ MIGKJ MIGSLJ MIGPJ MIGIN MIGINS MIGINK MIGINSL MIGINP MIGJS MIGJK MIGJSL MIGJP MIGOUT MIGOUTS MIGOUTK
MIGOUTSL MIGOUTP MIGJM MIGJAS MIGJSP MIGJH MIGEXJ MIGSM MIGSAS MIGSSP MIGSH MIGEXS MIGKM MIGKAS MIGKSP MIGKH MIGEXK
MIGSLM MIGSLAS MIGSLSP MIGSLH MIGEXSL MIGPM MIGPAS MIGPSP MIGPH MIGEXP DTKJ DTKS DTKK DTKSL DTKP STKJ STKS STKK STKSL
STKP UJ US UK USL UP WJ WS WK WSL WP GRDPJ GRDPS GRDPK GRDPSL GRDPP DICJ DICS DICK DICSL DICP CONJ CONS CONK CONSL
CONP INVJ INVS INVK INVSL INVP DEVJ2 DEVS2 DEVK2 DEVSL2 DEVP2; RUN
; QUIT
;
368
Lampiran 11. Hasil Peramalan Variabel Endogen Model Ekonomi Migrasi Indonesia Tahun 2009-2012 Menggunakan Prosedur
SIMNLIN Metode Newton dengan Program SASETS Versi 9
The SI MNLI N Pr oc edur e Model Summar y
Model Var i abl es 204 Endogenous 98
Ex ogenous 106 Par amet er s 315
Range Var i abl e Tahun Equat i ons 98
Number of St at ement s 98 Pr ogr am Lag Lengt h 1
The SI MNLI N Pr oc edur e Dy nami c Si mul t aneous Si mul at i on
Dat a Set Opt i ons DATA= D1BARU
OUT= ENDO Sol ut i on
Summar y Var i abl es Sol v ed 98
Si mul at i on Lag Lengt h 1 Sol ut i on Range Tahun
Fi r s t 2009 Las t 2012
Sol ut i on Met hod NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E- 8
Max i mum CC 1. 67E- 15 Max i mum I t er at i ons 1
Tot al I t er at i ons 4 Av er age I t er at i ons 1
Obs er v at i ons Pr oc es s ed Read 5
Lagged 1 Sol v ed 4
Fi r s t 25 Las t 28
369
Has i l Per amal an Var i abel Endogen Ni l ai Das ar Model Ek onomi Mi gr as i I ndones i a Tahun 2009- 2012
Obs Tahun MI GSJ MI GKJ MI GSLJ MI GPJ MI GI N MI GI NS MI GI NK MI GI NSL MI GI NP MI GJ S MI GJ K 1 2009 1700342. 96 274809. 43 208626. 71 239193. 72 2422972. 82 4368659. 09 1927858. 21 737970. 17 770659. 00 4106102. 67 347739. 74
2 2010 1699339. 13 277235. 58 206096. 97 233157. 72 2415829. 40 4571301. 75 1937289. 49 765277. 88 646502. 97 4305473. 40 1340184. 87 3 2011 1702948. 13 280365. 90 204404. 60 227949. 85 2415668. 48 4516996. 70 1947220. 00 779896. 96 579744. 27 4247708. 66 1333670. 26
4 2012 1711367. 92 283987. 75 203335. 31 223390. 66 2422081. 63 4499228. 50 1958081. 87 792798. 38 541193. 98 4226349. 19 1328467. 54 Obs MI GJ SL MI GJ P MI GOUT MI GOUTS MI GOUTK MI GOUTSL MI GOUTP MI GJ M MI GJ AS MI GJ SP MI GJ H MI GEXJ
1 387527. 43 482297. 16 6323666. 99 1872134. 79 360734. 75 918982. 10 745173. 93 198027. 92 313552. 04 4702. 45 6293. 04 522575. 45 2 403806. 10 364687. 80 6414152. 18 1875606. 95 362776. 37 919725. 98 762774. 20 253773. 24 369075. 58 3457. 16 6513. 56 632819. 55
3 408251. 56 306019. 55 6295650. 02 1883432. 56 365355. 25 921017. 77 781295. 62 263766. 74 373936. 94 3401. 50 7448. 13 648553. 32 4 411607. 52 271665. 49 6238089. 74 1895881. 62 369997. 20 931263. 27 792212. 60 278924. 91 395758. 91 3872. 27 8347. 28 686903. 36
Obs MI GSM MI GSAS MI GSSP MI GSH MI GEXS MI GKM MI GKAS MI GKSP MI GKH MI GEXK MI GSLM MI GSLAS MI GSLSP MI GSLH 1 63444. 67 220. 581 6217. 26 3697. 07 73579. 58 98625. 97 710. 392 3283. 39 6826. 73 109446. 48 1142. 94 158. 29 107. 76 103. 27
2 73297. 39 246. 584 8558. 30 4041. 18 86143. 45 104367. 12 748. 609 2299. 44 8029. 72 115444. 89 1210. 96 163. 34 131. 95 115. 76 3 82046. 10 263. 917 11550. 35 4866. 33 98726. 70 113041. 60 783. 690 2257. 67 9928. 13 126011. 09 1298. 00 168. 15 158. 27 133. 16
4 89275. 86 270. 748 14695. 56 5518. 18 109760. 35 123127. 96 835. 182 2788. 20 11578. 55 138329. 89 1394. 15 176. 34 184. 89 148. 24
Obs MI GEXSL MI GPM MI GPAS MI GPSP MI GPH MI GEXP MI GEXLJ MI GEXI DTKJ DTKS DTKK DTKSL DTKP 1 1512. 26 35488. 23 11139. 84 2952. 65 3727. 03 53307. 74 237846. 07 760421. 52 59633681. 24 20555767. 68 5755089. 05 6683802. 27 519626. 91
2 1622. 01 37087. 69 13449. 36 3214. 05 3635. 36 57386. 46 260596. 82 893416. 36 60402905. 38 20623177. 69 5782431. 04 7104730. 65 615850. 13 3 1757. 58 37766. 95 13836. 85 3479. 14 3999. 03 59081. 96 285577. 33 934130. 65 61288614. 08 20730128. 07 5809063. 80 7211747. 92 721124. 59
4 1903. 62 38437. 92 14058. 28 3800. 03 4358. 11 60654. 34 310648. 21 997551. 57 62210749. 68 20879281. 88 5835902. 83 7284243. 82 826620. 43
Obs DTKLJ DTKI STKJ STKS STKK STKSL STKP STKLJ STKI UJ 1 40514285. 91 100147967. 15 64769227. 58 23259494. 90 6234537. 02 7630792. 91 8540299. 30 45665124. 14 110434351. 71 5135546. 33
2 41126189. 50 101529094. 88 63720071. 95 23717979. 63 6338488. 02 7799711. 86 8406529. 24 46262708. 75 109982780. 70 3317166. 57 3 41472064. 38 102760678. 46 63522145. 90 24116902. 37 6429155. 82 7938369. 62 8377733. 65 46862161. 45 110384307. 35 2233531. 82
4 41826048. 97 104036798. 65 63814229. 84 24421391. 78 6510480. 00 8070166. 91 8401964. 34 47404003. 03 111218232. 88 1603480. 17 Obs US UK USL UP ULJ UI WJ WS WK WSL WP WLJ
1 2703727. 22 479447. 96 946990. 65 1020672. 40 5150838. 23 10286384. 56 560976. 08 500806. 87 619225. 52 550554. 12 838824. 65 627352. 79 2 3094801. 94 556056. 97 694981. 22 790679. 11 5136519. 25 8453685. 82 609248. 86 504473. 42 645784. 64 562736. 76 853957. 08 641737. 97
3 3386774. 30 620092. 02 726621. 69 656609. 06 5390097. 07 7623628. 89 645742. 46 498819. 71 664910. 70 573256. 85 871617. 30 652151. 14
370
4 3542109. 89 674577. 17 785923. 09 575343. 91 5577954. 06 7181434. 23 675627. 08 492844. 26 684483. 91 584963. 02 892284. 31 663643. 88 Obs WI GRDPJ GRDPS GRDPK GRDPSL GRDPP GRDPLJ GDPI DI CJ DI CS DI CK DI CSL
1 614077. 45 623660. 61 386087. 57 184302. 77 134099. 32 194644. 91 899134. 57 1522795. 18 616409. 20 384723. 27 183905. 30 133777. 54 2 635240. 15 469657. 85 428767. 55 192162. 43 162059. 57 206955. 57 989945. 12 1459602. 96 462091. 81 427357. 51 191747. 93 161723. 26
3 650869. 40 509930. 20 468896. 25 198932. 47 183857. 61 200399. 70 1052086. 03 1562016. 23 502052. 16 467437. 77 198501. 02 183507. 09 4 666040. 52 531059. 15 506519. 65 205770. 30 199436. 09 195581. 91 1107307. 95 1638367. 10 522870. 55 505010. 78 205321. 96 199071. 59
Obs DI CP DI CLJ DI CI CONJ CONS CONK CONSL CONP CONLJ CONI I NVJ I NVS 1 193815. 80 896221. 91 1512631. 11 484827. 87 229077. 71 78180. 31 77107. 83 96846. 03 481211. 88 966039. 75 97634. 81 21952. 61
2 206088. 72 986917. 41 1449009. 22 330221. 05 267925. 09 83782. 40 122527. 82 102275. 46 576510. 77 906731. 83 95277. 28 22527. 29 3 199495. 05 1048940. 93 1550993. 09 357664. 02 298650. 95 87358. 10 144844. 18 98778. 81 629632. 04 987296. 07 96862. 28 27743. 67
4 194639. 43 1104043. 77 1626914. 32 373083. 74 326224. 31 90517. 35 161269. 64 95271. 63 673282. 94 1046366. 67 99461. 15 33129. 13 Obs I NVK I NVSL I NVP I NVLJ I NVI DEVJ 2 DEVS2 DEVK2 DEVSL2 DEVP2 DEVLJ DEVI
1 13604. 53 41110. 40 64778. 91 141446. 45 239081. 25 11152963. 66 1336960. 42 2213680. 01 35461. 11 1601626. 31 5187727. 85 16340691. 51 2 13697. 44 23284. 49 69298. 09 128807. 31 224084. 60 12396592. 29 1720784. 46 2317575. 36 37219. 76 1820406. 82 5895986. 41 18292578. 70
3 13879. 29 22280. 66 66007. 90 129911. 52 226773. 80 13222895. 29 1813988. 75 2426280. 75 39041. 82 2003376. 33 6282687. 64 19505582. 94 4 14113. 08 20878. 60 63058. 81 131179. 61 230640. 76 13965653. 34 1927812. 28 2536831. 68 40889. 57 2161772. 47 6667306. 00 20632959. 34
Hasil Peramalan Simulasi Depresiasi Nilai Tukar 5 Persen, Penurunan Suku Bunga 2 Persen dan Peningkatan Pengeluaran Infrastruktur di Jawa 10 Persen dan di Luar Jawa 20 Persen Simulasi 5
Obs Tahun MI GSJ MI GKJ MI GSLJ MI GPJ MI GI N MI GI NS MI GI NK MI GI NSL MI GI NP MI GJ S MI GJ K 1 2009 1699493. 94 274067. 65 208657. 03 239338. 96 2421557. 57 4425753. 80 1928184. 83 743540. 79 799246. 00 4163197. 38 1348066. 35
2 2010 1696227. 34 276815. 26 206148. 94 233409. 39 2412600. 93 4635103. 33 1937943. 73 772572. 09 670459. 66 4369274. 99 1340839. 11 3 2011 1696124. 17 280050. 68 204471. 07 228278. 84 2408924. 76 4590999. 89 1948211. 41 788302. 30 598658. 89 4321711. 85 1334661. 67
4 2012 1699647. 47 283519. 08 203410. 12 223778. 33 2410355. 00 4582982. 87 1959420. 91 802076. 11 556260. 89 4310103. 55 1329806. 58 Obs MI GJ SL MI GJ P MI GOUT MI GOUTS MI GOUTK MI GOUTSL MI GOUTP MI GJ M MI GJ AS MI GJ SP MI GJ H MI GEXJ
1 393098. 05 510884. 16 6415245. 94 1871285. 77 359992. 96 919012. 41 745319. 16 197828. 10 310529. 59 4630. 44 6450. 02 519438. 14 2 411100. 31 388644. 49 6509858. 90 1872495. 16 362356. 05 919777. 95 763025. 87 252135. 03 363808. 33 3368. 68 6640. 73 625952. 78
3 416656. 90 324934. 17 6397964. 59 1876608. 61 365040. 03 921084. 23 781624. 61 261857. 05 367730. 25 3325. 59 7567. 69 640480. 59 4 420885. 26 286732. 40 6347527. 79 1884161. 18 369528. 52 931338. 09 792600. 28 277193. 62 389375. 87 3822. 37 8459. 56 678851. 42
Obs MI GSM MI GSAS MI GSSP MI GSH MI GEXS MI GKM MI GKAS MI GKSP MI GKH MI GEXK MI GSLM MI GSLAS MI GSLSP MI GSLH 1 64667. 00 213. 956 6400. 69 3850. 73 75132. 38 102206. 85 720. 52 3553. 24 7085. 09 113565. 70 1189. 40 159. 78 113. 928 106. 70
2 74341. 92 236. 710 8689. 35 4175. 46 87443. 44 107665. 92 758. 86 2693. 03 8270. 75 119388. 56 1259. 08 164. 92 140. 934 119. 53 3 83209. 96 253. 480 11506. 35 5014. 96 99984. 76 115964. 64 794. 60 2716. 24 10150. 98 129626. 46 1348. 52 169. 81 168. 766 137. 46
4 90770. 32 261. 619 14432. 63 5686. 82 111151. 39 125717. 83 847. 68 3295. 15 11786. 05 141646. 71 1447. 52 178. 18 196. 401 153. 01
371
Obs MI GEXSL MI GPM MI GPAS MI GPSP MI GPH MI GEXP DTKJ DTKS DTKK DTKSL DTKP 1 1569. 82 33316. 62 10972. 98 3240. 00 3830. 35 51359. 95 59709891. 07 20629214. 55 5763864. 92 6717953. 21 7589604. 98
2 1684. 47 34677. 25 13435. 58 3533. 05 3729. 33 55375. 21 60515907. 05 20763385. 30 5801060. 81 7183286. 98 7689602. 89 3 1824. 57 35355. 22 13872. 70 3793. 29 4091. 09 57112. 30 61421310. 59 20922897. 03 5837587. 32 7317910. 96 7796783. 38
4 1975. 11 36076. 88 14098. 32 4111. 07 4449. 93 58736. 20 62355746. 76 21111695. 69 5873828. 53 7411152. 28 7903896. 00
Obs DTKLJ DTKI STKJ STKS STKK STKSL STKP STKLJ STKI UJ 1 40700637. 67 100410528. 74 64591421. 00 23273777. 00 6235410. 20 7635165. 15 8595850. 77 45740203. 13 110331624. 12 4881529. 93
2 41437335. 99 101953243. 04 63405671. 50 23774479. 68 6339478. 33 7807267. 90 8457859. 73 46379085. 63 109784757. 13 2889764. 45 3 41875178. 70 103296489. 30 63094692. 88 24224903. 64 6431807. 84 7947801. 58 8422006. 24 47026519. 29 110121212. 17 1673382. 29
4 42300572. 49 104656319. 26 63288927. 23 24584500. 85 6515918. 01 8080949. 53 8440509. 11 47621877. 50 110910804. 73 933180. 47 Obs US UK USL UP ULJ UI WJ WS WK WSL WP WLJ
1 2644562. 45 471545. 28 917211. 94 1006245. 79 5039565. 46 9921095. 39 562621. 73 504662. 62 619174. 01 550646. 97 838089. 20 628143. 20 2 3011094. 38 538417. 51 623980. 92 768256. 84 4941749. 65 7831514. 10 612702. 09 513713. 83 646744. 35 563349. 00 854531. 64 644584. 70
3 3302006. 60 594220. 52 629890. 61 625222. 86 5151340. 59 6824722. 88 650763. 51 513398. 54 667314. 34 574189. 84 872993. 27 656974. 00 4 3472805. 16 642089. 48 669797. 25 536613. 11 5321305. 00 6254485. 47 681984. 53 511779. 27 688293. 10 586135. 58 894151. 64 670089. 90
Obs WI GRDPJ GRDPS GRDPK GRDPSL GRDPP GRDPLJ GDPI DI CJ DI CS DI CK DI CSL 1 615038. 91 649331. 28 392585. 93 185703. 39 136600. 90 203349. 18 918239. 39 1567570. 67 642079. 87 391221. 63 185305. 92 136279. 12
2 638208. 18 501849. 73 438480. 88 194213. 02 165608. 48 217960. 40 1016262. 78 1518112. 51 494283. 69 437070. 84 193798. 52 165272. 17 3 655731. 90 544458. 02 480305. 74 201384. 84 188147. 30 210961. 23 1080799. 11 1625257. 13 536579. 98 478847. 25 200953. 39 187796. 78
4 672468. 83 566419. 58 518770. 67 208471. 73 204217. 43 205069. 80 1136529. 64 1702949. 22 558230. 98 517261. 81 208023. 39 203852. 93 Obs DI CP DI CLJ DI CI CONJ CONS CONK CONSL CONP CONLJ CONI I NVJ I NVS
1 202520. 07 915326. 73 1557406. 61 503093. 21 230665. 51 78700. 81 77956. 69 99827. 16 487150. 17 990243. 37 104794. 14 26180. 31 2 217093. 55 1013235. 07 1507518. 76 352487. 48 272427. 12 84637. 98 124973. 73 106163. 02 588201. 85 940689. 33 104948. 44 27050. 22
3 210056. 59 1077654. 01 1614234. 00 381342. 01 305346. 01 88424. 00 148106. 67 102529. 52 644406. 20 1025748. 21 107446. 71 31759. 91 4 204127. 32 1133265. 45 1691496. 43 397241. 95 334329. 45 91714. 51 165085. 92 98574. 36 689704. 23 1086946. 19 110385. 94 36563. 66
Obs I NVK I NVSL I NVP I NVLJ I NVI DEVJ 2 DEVS2 DEVK2 DEVSL2 DEVP2 DEVLJ DEVI 1 14115. 96 42622. 50 70276. 57 153195. 34 257989. 47 11141092. 79 1342895. 65 2218017. 70 35602. 45 1601160. 41 5197676. 21 16338769. 00
2 14513. 79 24245. 93 76182. 24 141992. 19 246940. 62 12365799. 31 1727965. 04 2321728. 18 37373. 14 1819606. 42 5906672. 79 18272472. 10 3 14876. 01 23164. 19 72577. 54 142377. 65 249824. 36 13179871. 08 1821473. 09 2430087. 85 39206. 31 2002356. 63 6293123. 89 19472994. 96
4 15215. 59 21697. 06 68994. 41 142470. 71 252856. 65 13917751. 13 1935918. 11 2540324. 40 41065. 13 2160614. 79 6677922. 43 20595673. 56
300
VIII. SIMPULAN, IMPLIKASI KEBIJAKAN DAN SARAN
