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Scenario 1 = INF naik 15%

1. Scenario 1 = INF naik 15%

The SIMNLIN Procedure

Model Summary

Model Variables 4

Endogenous 4

Parameters 17

Equations 4

Number of Statements 4

Model Variables GDP TP X M

Parameters(Value) a0(16885031) b0(33031.71) c0(26155.74) d0(20204.57) a1(-25.4817) b1(-335.979)

c1(0.000048) d1(1.5E-6) a2(-94.2654) b2(0.011746) c2(0.097921) d2(0.102744)

a3(69.40472) b3(-0.00282) a4(321.3292) b4(-0.52519) a5(26.22723)

Equations TP GDP X M

Scenario 1 = INF naik 15%

The SIMNLIN Procedure

Simultaneous Simulation

Data Set Options

DATA= BAWANG

Solution Summary

Variables Solved 4

Solution Method NEWTON

CONVERGE= 1E-8

Maximum CC 2.15E-16

Maximum Iterations 1

Total Iterations 22

Average Iterations 1

Observations Processed

Read 22

Solved 22

Variables Solved For GDP TP X M

1. Skenario 1 : Inflasi Naik 15 persen

Scenario 1 = INF naik 15%

The SIMNLIN Procedure

Simultaneous Simulation

Descriptive Statistics

Actual Predicted

Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev

GDP 22 22 18695.0 14237.1 18127.9 8730.4

TP 22 22 19868997 4392182 19827732 3041877

X 22 22 56841.3 29823.6 56910.7 25568.0

M 22 22 40028.3 24677.9 40029.8 19632.3

Statistics of fit

Mean Mean % Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS %

Variable N Error Error Error % Error Error Error R-Square

GDP 22 -567.1 19.3885 8662.6 58.6119 11234.5 70.5194 0.3477

TP 22 -41265.5 1.6562 2042319 9.2775 3026463 13.0908 0.5026

X 22 69.3389 6.5749 10290.8 20.2686 15070.6 30.3378 0.7325

M 22 1.4725 8.2393 9881.7 26.1707 14610.1 34.3489 0.6328

Theil Forecast Error Statistics

MSE Decomposition Proportions

Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef

Variable N MSE (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U

GDP 22 1.2621E8 0.59 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.23 0.77 0.4821 0.2592

TP 22 9.159E12 0.71 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.19 0.81 0.1489 0.0750

X 22 2.2712E8 0.86 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.08 0.92 0.2359 0.1196

M 22 2.1346E8 0.80 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.11 0.89 0.3127 0.1603

Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics

Relative Change MSE Decomposition Proportions

Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef

Variable N MSE (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U

GDP 21 0.4803 0.48 0.11 0.76 0.12 0.45 0.44 2.3972 0.6329

TP 21 0.0194 0.53 0.00 0.27 0.72 0.00 0.99 0.9608 0.4652

X 21 0.0407 0.43 0.00 0.35 0.65 0.01 0.99 1.0367 0.4971

M 21 0.0805 0.52 0.00 0.29 0.71 0.00 0.99 0.9494 0.4590

2. Skenario 2 , Depresiasi IDR Terhadap USD 18 persen

Scenario 2 = ER naik 18%

The SIMNLIN Procedure

Model Summary

Model Variables 4

Endogenous 4

Parameters 17

Equations 4

Number of Statements 4

Model Variables GDP TP X M

Parameters(Value) a0(16885031) b0(33031.71) c0(26155.74) d0(20204.57) a1(-25.4817) b1(-335.979)

c1(0.000048) d1(1.5E-6) a2(-94.2654) b2(0.011746) c2(0.097921) d2(0.102744)

a3(69.40472) b3(-0.00282) a4(321.3292) b4(-0.52519) a5(26.22723)

Equations TP GDP X M

Scenario 2 = ER naik 18%

The SIMNLIN Procedure

Simultaneous Simulation

Data Set Options

DATA= BAWANG

Solution Summary

Variables Solved 4

Solution Method NEWTON

CONVERGE= 1E-8

Maximum CC 2.16E-16

Maximum Iterations 1

Total Iterations 22

Average Iterations 1

Observations Processed

Read 22

Solved 22

Variables Solved For GDP TP X M

Scenario 2 = ER naik 18%

The SIMNLIN Procedure

Simultaneous Simulation

Descriptive Statistics

Actual Predicted

Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev

GDP 22 22 18695.0 14237.1 18691.9 8435.4

TP 22 22 19868997 4392182 20217589 3207227

X 22 22 56841.3 29823.6 56910.7 25568.0

M 22 22 40028.3 24677.9 40029.8 19632.3

Statistics of fit

Mean Mean % Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS %

Variable N Error Error Error % Error Error Error R-Square

GDP 22 -3.1231 26.2326 8635.1 57.7438 11206.8 69.4819 0.3509

TP 22 348591 3.5905 2109118 9.9205 3056275 13.9110 0.4927

X 22 69.3389 6.5749 10290.8 20.2686 15070.6 30.3378 0.7325

M 22 1.4725 8.2393 9881.7 26.1707 14610.1 34.3489 0.6328

Theil Forecast Error Statistics

MSE Decomposition Proportions

Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef

Variable N MSE (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U

GDP 22 1.2559E8 0.59 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.26 0.74 0.4809 0.2563

TP 22 9.341E12 0.71 0.01 0.00 0.99 0.14 0.84 0.1504 0.0749

X 22 2.2712E8 0.86 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.08 0.92 0.2359 0.1196

M 22 2.1346E8 0.80 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.11 0.89 0.3127 0.1603

Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics

Relative Change MSE Decomposition Proportions

Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef

Variable N MSE (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U

GDP 21 0.5467 0.46 0.14 0.75 0.11 0.44 0.41 2.5575 0.6483

TP 21 0.0211 0.53 0.04 0.29 0.67 0.01 0.95 1.0010 0.4653

X 21 0.0407 0.43 0.00 0.35 0.65 0.01 0.99 1.0367 0.4971

M 21 0.0805 0.52 0.00 0.29 0.71 0.00

3. Skenario 3, Ekspor turun 20 persen

Scenario 3 = X turun 20%

The SIMNLIN Procedure

Model Summary

Model Variables 4

Endogenous 4

Parameters 17

Equations 4

Number of Statements 4

Model Variables GDP TP X M

Parameters(Value) a0(16885031) b0(33031.71) c0(26155.74) d0(20204.57) a1(-25.4817) b1(-335.979)

c1(0.000048) d1(1.5E-6) a2(-94.2654) b2(0.011746) c2(0.097921) d2(0.102744)

a3(69.40472) b3(-0.00282) a4(321.3292) b4(-0.52519) a5(26.22723)

Equations TP GDP X M

Scenario 3 = X turun 20%

The SIMNLIN Procedure

Simultaneous Simulation

Data Set Options

DATA= BAWANG

Solution Summary

Variables Solved 4

Solution Method NEWTON

CONVERGE= 1E-8

Maximum CC 2.15E-16

Maximum Iterations 1

Total Iterations 22

Average Iterations 1

Observations Processed

Read 22

Solved 22

Variables Solved For GDP TP X M

Scenario 3 = X turun 20%

The SIMNLIN Procedure

Simultaneous Simulation

Descriptive Statistics

Actual Predicted

Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev

GDP 22 22 18695.0 14237.1 18691.9 8435.4

TP 22 22 19868997 4392182 19866875 3035256

X 22 22 45473.1 23858.9 56910.7 25568.0

M 22 22 40028.3 24677.9 40029.8 19632.3

Statistics of fit

Mean Mean % Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS %

Variable N Error Error Error % Error Error Error R-Square

GDP 22 -3.1231 26.2326 8635.1 57.7438 11206.8 69.4819 0.3509

TP 22 -2122.1 1.8709 2057455 9.3802 3034708 13.1808 0.4999

X 22 11437.6 33.2186 11831.2 34.1931 17363.0 49.7396 0.4452

M 22 1.4725 8.2393 9881.7 26.1707 14610.1 34.3489 0.6328

Theil Forecast Error Statistics

MSE Decomposition Proportions

Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef

Variable N MSE (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U

GDP 22 1.2559E8 0.59 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.26 0.74 0.4809 0.2563

TP 22 9.209E12 0.71 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.19 0.81 0.1493 0.0751

X 22 3.0147E8 0.86 0.43 0.08 0.48 0.01 0.56 0.3398 0.1533

M 22 2.1346E8 0.80 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.11 0.89 0.3127 0.1603

Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics

Relative Change MSE Decomposition Proportions

Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef

Variable N MSE (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U

GDP 21 0.5467 0.46 0.14 0.75 0.11 0.44 0.41 2.5575 0.6483

TP 21 0.0197 0.53 0.01 0.28 0.72 0.00 0.99 0.9663 0.4663

X 21 0.1301 0.43 0.58 0.22 0.20 0.03 0.39 1.8539 0.5825

M 21 0.0805 0.52 0.00 0.29 0.71 0

4. Skenario 4 Tidak ada tariff perdagangan (T=0)

T=0

The SIMNLIN Procedure

Model Summary

Model Variables 4

Endogenous 4

Parameters 17

Equations 4

Number of Statements 4

Model Variables GDP TP X M

Parameters(Value) a0(16885031) b0(33031.71) c0(26155.74) d0(20204.57) a1(-25.4817) b1(-335.979)

c1(0.000048) d1(1.5E-6) a2(-94.2654) b2(0.011746) c2(0.097921) d2(0.102744)

a3(69.40472) b3(-0.00282) a4(321.3292) b4(-0.52519) a5(26.22723)

Equations TP GDP X M

T=0

The SIMNLIN Procedure

Simultaneous Simulation

Data Set Options

DATA= BAWANG

Solution Summary

Variables Solved 4

Solution Method NEWTON

CONVERGE= 1E-8

Maximum CC 3.4E-16

Maximum Iterations 1

Total Iterations 22

Average Iterations 1

Observations Processed

Read 22

Solved 22

Variables Solved For GDP TP X M

T=0

The SIMNLIN Procedure

Simultaneous Simulation

Descriptive Statistics

Actual Predicted

Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev

GDP 22 22 18695.0 14237.1 18691.9 8435.4

TP 22 22 19868997 4392182 17210530 547884

X 22 22 56841.3 29823.6 38393.2 8616.6

M 22 22 40028.3 24677.9 20600.2 353.1

Statistics of fit

Mean Mean % Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS %

Variable N Error Error Error % Error Error Error R-Square

GDP 22 -3.1231 26.2326 8635.1 57.7438 11206.8 69.4819 0.3509

TP 22 -2658468 -10.3054 2843699 11.4008 4798202 17.7147 -.2503

X 22 -18448.1 -21.3057 20017.7 28.7658 29815.6 33.6585 -.0471

M 22 -19428.1 -34.8545 20417.1 41.8126 30761.4 45.9168 -.6278

Theil Forecast Error Statistics

MSE Decomposition Proportions

Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef

Variable N MSE (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U

GDP 22 1.2559E8 0.59 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.26 0.74 0.4809 0.2563

TP 22 2.302E13 0.60 0.31 0.18 0.51 0.61 0.08 0.2360 0.1278

X 22 8.8897E8 0.76 0.38 0.21 0.41 0.48 0.13 0.4668 0.2890

M 22 9.4626E8 0.76 0.40 0.34 0.26 0.60 0.00 0.6583 0.4569

Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics

Relative Change MSE Decomposition Proportions

Corr Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef

Variable N MSE (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U

GDP 21 0.5467 0.46 0.14 0.75 0.11 0.44 0.41 2.5575 0.6483

TP 21 0.0451 0.22 0.34 0.25 0.41 0.00 0.66 1.4631 0.6914

X 21 0.1432 0.37 0.52 0.28 0.20 0.05 0.43 1.9447 0.7152

M 21 0.3215 0.28 0.61 0.16 0.23 0

1 Student’s of Doctorate Program, Economic of Agriculture, Bogor Agriculture University


2 Economic and Management Lecturer in Binus University, Jakarta

3 Early Harvest Programme, suatu program untuk mempercepat implementasi ACFTA dimana tarif most Favored Nation (MFN) sudah dapat dihapus untuk beberapa kategori komoditas tertentu. MFN adalah status yag diberikan kepada suatu negara oleh negara lain dalam suatu hubungan perdagangan. Status ini memberikan kepada suatu negara keuntungan dalam perlakukan perdagangan dalam bentuk (misalnya) tarif rendah atau kuota impor yang lebih tinggi. Negara dengan status MFN harus memperoleh perlakuan dagang yang sama dari negara pemberi status, (http://budikolonjono.blogspot.com/2010/09/sedikit-kata-tentang-acfta.html)

4 Impian di Balik FTA Asean-Tiongkok, Mudrajad Kuncoro, Investor-Indonesia.com, 2010

5 Oktaviani, Rina,. Widyastutik,. Amaliah, Syarifah,. 2010. Dampak Asean –China Terhadap Ekonomi Makro dan Ekonomi Sektoral Indonesia. Institut Pertanian Bogor

6 Lestari, Diena,. 2010. Produk Hortikultura di Bawah Bayangan Keterpurukan. Bisnis Indonesia


7 Produk hortikultura di bawah bayangan keterpurukan,Bisnis Indonesia, 2010

8 Produk hortikultura di bawah bayangan keterpurukan,Bisnis Indonesia, 2010


9 Bank Indonesia, 2009

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