L2-32
3. Kategori 4 periode:
a. DIVAN 4000GOFRET
Gambar L2.9 Data Permintaan Produk DIVAN 4000GOFRET
Double Moving Average DMA
Tabel L3.38 Perhitungan Double Moving Average M=2 Produk DIVAN 4000GOFRET
Permintaan MA 2
MA 2x2 Ramalan Permintaan dt
dt St
St Nilai Ft+m = at+btm
1 30.744
2 54.684
42.713,924 3
27.341,772 35.027,848
19.655,696 -15.372,152
0,000 4
194.400 97.200,000
62.270,886 132.129,114
69.858,228 4.283,544
4.284 5
201.987,342 201.988
6 271.845,570
271.846 7
341.703,797 341.704
8 411.562,025
411.563
Nilai at Nilai bt
Periode t
Pembulatan dt
25,000 50,000
75,000 100,000
125,000 150,000
175,000 200,000
1 2
3 4
D e
ma n
d
Periode
DIVAN 4000GOFRET
Demand Rata-rata
L2-33
Regression Analysis Pola Siklis
Tabel L2.39 Hasil Peramalan Regression Analysis Pola Siklis
Produk DIVAN 4000GOFRET
t dt
sin90t cos90t
dt Pembulatan dt
1 30.744
1,000 0,000
75.081,013 75.082
2 54.684
0,000 -1,000
98,734 99
3 -1,000
0,000 64.832,911
64.833 4
194.400 0,000
1,000 139.815,190
139.816 5
1,000 0,000
75.081,013 75.082
6 0,000
-1,000 98,734
99 7
-1,000 0,000
64.832,911 64.833
8 0,000
1,000 139.815,190
139.816
N = 4 periodesiklus
Tabel L2.40 Mean Absolute Error
MAEMean Absolute Deviation MAD Produk DIVAN 4000GOFRET
dt |dt-dt|
dt |dt-dt|
1 30.744
75.082 44.338
2 54.684
99 54.585
3 64.833
64.833 4
194.400 4.284
190.116 139.816
54.584 5
201.988 75.082
6 271.846
99 7
341.704 64.833
8 411.563
139.816 MAE
190.116,000 54.584,810
t dt
DMA M=2 Pola Siklis
Metode
Berdasarkan metode ukuran kesalahan peramalanerror MAE, hasil peramalan untuk produk DIVAN 4000GOFRET menggunakan metode
peramalan pola siklis karena memiliki nilai error yang terkecil, yaitu 54.584,810.
L2-34
b. LT. MARQUERITE
40.000 80.000
120.000 160.000
200.000
1 2
3 4
D e
m a
nd
Periode
LT. MARQUERITE
Demand Rata-rata
Gambar L2.10 Data Permintaan Produk LT. MARQUERITE
Double Moving Average DMA
Tabel L2.41 Perhitungan Double Moving Average M=2 Produk LT. MARQUERITE
Permintaan MA 2
MA 2x2 Ramalan Permintaan dt
dt St
St Nilai Ft+m = at+btm
1 35.858
2 140.402
88.129,920 3
139.392 139.896,960 114.013,440 165.780,480
51.767,040 0,000
4 180.698
160.044,800 149.970,880 170.118,720 20.147,840
217.547,520 217.548
5 190.266,560
190.267 6
210.414,400 210.415
7 230.562,240
230.563 8
250.710,080 250.711
Nilai at Nilai bt
Periode t
Pembulatan dt
L2-35
Regression Analysis Pola Siklis
Tabel L2.42 Hasil Peramalan Regression Analysis Pola Siklis Produk LT. MARQUERITE
t dt
sin90t cos90t
dt Pembulatan dt
1 35.858
1,000 0,000
106.831,680 106.832
2 140.402
0,000 -1,000
103.939,520 103.940
3 139.392
-1,000 0,000
141.343,040 141.344
4 180.698
0,000 1,000
144.235,200 144.236
5 1,000
0,000 106.831,680
106.832 6
0,000 -1,000
103.939,520 103.940
7 -1,000
0,000 141.343,040
141.344 8
0,000 1,000
144.235,200 144.236
N = 4 periodesiklus
Tabel L2.43 Mean Absolute Error
MAEMean Absolute Deviation MAD Produk LT. MARQUERITE
dt |dt-dt|
dt |dt-dt|
1 35.858
106.832 70.974
2 140.402
103.940 36.462
3 139.392
141.344 1.952
4 180.698
217.548 36.850
144.236 36.462
5 190.267
106.832 6
210.415 103.940
7 230.563
141.344 8
250.711 144.236
MAE 36.850,400
36.462,400
t dt
DMA M=2 Pola Siklis
Metode
Berdasarkan metode ukuran kesalahan peramalanerror MAE, hasil peramalan untuk produk LT. MARQUERITE menggunakan metode
peramalan pola siklis karena memiliki nilai error yang terkecil, yaitu 36.462,400.
L2-36
c. MONEJAVELIN
Kategori