L2-36
c. MONEJAVELIN
40.000 80.000
120.000 160.000
200.000 240.000
280.000
1 2
3 4
D e
m a
nd
Periode
MONEJAVELIN
Demand Rata-rata
Gambar L2.11 Data Permintaan Produk MONEJAVELIN
Double Moving Average DMA
Tabel L2.44 Perhitungan Double Moving Average M=2 Produk MONEJAVELIN
Permintaan MA 2
MA 2x2 Ramalan Permintaan dt
dt St
St Nilai Ft+m = at+btm
1 273.977
2 29.850
151.913,143 3
14.924,800 83.418,971
-53.569,371 -136.988,343 0,000
4 0,000
7.462,400 -7.462,400
-14.924,800 -190.557,714
-190.558 5
-22.387,200 -22.388
6 -37.312,000
-37.312 7
-52.236,800 -52.237
8 -67.161,600
-67.162
Nilai at Nilai bt
Periode t
Pembulatan dt
L2-37
Regression Analysis Pola Siklis
Tabel L2.45 Hasil Peramalan Regression Analysis Pola Siklis Produk MONEJAVELIN
t dt
sin90t cos90t
dt Pembulatan dt
1 273.977
1,000 0,000
121.619,352 121.620
2 29.850
0,000 -1,000
90.881,371 90.882
3 -1,000
0,000 30.293,790
30.294 4
0,000 1,000
61.031,771 61.032
5 1,000
0,000 121.619,352
121.620 6
0,000 -1,000
90.881,371 90.882
7 -1,000
0,000 30.293,790
30.294 8
0,000 1,000
61.031,771 61.032
N = 4 periodesiklus
Tabel L2.46 Mean Absolute Error
MAEMean Absolute Deviation MAD Produk MONEJAVELIN
dt |dt-dt|
dt |dt-dt|
1 273.977
121.620 152.357
2 29.850
90.882 61.032
3 30.294
30.294 4
-190.558 190.558
61.032 61.032
5 -22.388
121.620 6
-37.312 90.882
7 -52.237
30.294 8
-67.162 61.032
MAE 190.558,000
76.178,771
t dt
DMA M=2 Pola Siklis
Metode
Berdasarkan metode ukuran kesalahan peramalanerror MAE, hasil peramalan untuk produk MONEJAVELIN menggunakan metode
peramalan pola siklis karena memiliki nilai error yang terkecil, yaitu 76.178,771.
L2-38
d. SARAY 01
Gambar L3.12 Data Permintaan Produk SARAY 01
Double Moving Average DMA
Tabel L2.47 Perhitungan Double Moving Average M=2 Produk SARAY 01
Permintaan MA 2
MA 2x2 Ramalan Permintaan dt
dt St
St Nilai Ft+m = at+btm
1 2
63.360 31.680,000
3 88.000
75.680,000 53.680,000
97.680,000 44.000,000
0,000 4
44.000,000 59.840,000
28.160,000 -31.680,000
141.680,000 141.680
5 -3.520,000
-3.520 6
-35.200,000 -35.200
7 -66.880,000
-66.880 8
-98.560,000 -98.560
Nilai at Nilai bt
Periode t
Pembulatan dt
20,000 40,000
60,000 80,000
100,000
1 2
3 4
D e
ma n
d
Periode
SARAI 01
Demand Rata-rata
L2-39
Regression Analysis Pola Siklis
Tabel L2.48 Hasil Peramalan Regression Analysis Pola Siklis Produk SARAY 01
t dt
sin90t cos90t
dt Pembulatan dt
1 1,000
0,000 23.173,333
23.174 2
63.360 0,000
-1,000 69.520,000
69.520 3
88.000 -1,000
0,000 52.506,667
52.507 4
0,000 1,000
6.160,000 6.160
5 1,000
0,000 23.173,333
23.174 6
0,000 -1,000
69.520,000 69.520
7 -1,000
0,000 52.506,667
52.507 8
0,000 1,000
6.160,000 6.160
N = 4 periodesiklus Tabel L2.49
Mean Absolute Error MAEMean Absolute Deviation MAD
Produk SARAY 01
dt |dt-dt|
dt |dt-dt|
1 23.174
23.174 2
63.360 69.520
6.160 3
88.000 52.507
35.493 4
141.680 141.680
6.160 6.160
5 -3.520
23.174 6
-35.200 69.520
7 -66.880
52.507 8
-98.560 6.160
MAE 141.680,000
17.746,750
t dt
DMA M=2 Pola Siklis
Metode
Berdasarkan metode ukuran kesalahan peramalanerror MAE, hasil peramalan untuk produk SARAY 01 menggunakan metode peramalan
pola siklis karena memiliki nilai error yang terkecil, yaitu 17.746,750.
L2-40
e. VALENTINO 24
Kategori