L2-1
LAMPIRAN 2 PERHITUNGAN METODE PERAMALAN DAN
METODE UKURAN KESALAHAN PERAMALAN
ERROR
Grafik, perhitungan metode peramalan Double Moving Average DMA, Regression Analysis
Pola Siklis, serta perhitungan ukuran kesalahan peramalanerror metode Mean Absolute Error MAEMean Absolute Deviation
MAD untuk 14 produk lainnya dapat dilihat di bawah ini:
1. Kategori 12 periode:
a. ABITA SATIN
10.000 20.000
30.000 40.000
50.000 60.000
70.000 80.000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 D
e m
a nd
Periode
ABITA SATIN
Demand Rata-rata
Gambar L2.1 Data Permintaan Produk ABITA SATIN
L2-2
Double Moving Average DMA
Tabel L2.1 Perhitungan Double Moving Average M=2 Produk ABITA SATIN
Permintaan MA 2
MA 2x2 Ramalan Permintaan dt
dt St
St Nilai Ft+m = at+btm
1 2
0,000 3
14.120 7.060,114
3.530,057 10.590,171
7.060,114 0,000
4 69.142
41.631,086 24.345,600
58.916,571 34.570,971
17.650,286 17.651
5 72.103
70.622,400 56.126,743
85.118,057 28.991,314
93.487,543 93.488
6 36.051,429
53.336,914 18.765,943
-34.570,971 114.109,371
114.110 7
74.057 37.028,571
36.540,000 37.517,143
977,143 -15.805,029
-15.806 8
37.028,571 37.028,571
37.028,571 0,000
38.494,286 38.495
9 51.840
25.920,000 31.474,286
20.365,714 -11.108,571
37.028,571 37.029
10 25.920,000
25.920,000 25.920,000
0,000 9.257,143
9.258 11
0,000 12.960,000
-12.960,000 -25.920,000
25.920,000 25.920
12 0,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 -38.880,000
-38.880 13
0,000 14
0,000 15
0,000 16
0,000
Nilai at Nilai bt
Periode t
Pembulatan dt
L2-3
Regression Analysis Pola Siklis
Tabel L2.2 Perhitungan Regression Analysis Pola Siklis Produk ABITA SATIN
t dt
sin90t sin
2
90t cos90t
cos
2
90t sin90tcos90t dtsin90t
dtcos90t dt
Pembulatan dt
1 1,000
1,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
29.399,429 29.400
2 0,000
0,000 -1,000
1,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
11.914,857 11.915
3 14.120
-1,000 1,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 -14.120,229
0,000 17.477,600
17.478 4
69.142 0,000
0,000 1,000
1,000 0,000
0,000 69.141,943
34.962,171 34.963
5 72.103
1,000 1,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 72.102,857
0,000 29.399,429
29.400 6
0,000 0,000
-1,000 1,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 11.914,857
11.915 7
74.057 -1,000
1,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
-74.057,143 0,000
17.477,600 17.478
8 0,000
0,000 1,000
1,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
34.962,171 34.963
9 51.840
1,000 1,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 51.840,000
0,000 29.399,429
29.400 10
0,000 0,000
-1,000 1,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 11.914,857
11.915 11
-1,000 1,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 17.477,600
17.478 12
0,000 0,000
1,000 1,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 34.962,171
34.963 Total
281.262 0,000
6,000 0,000
6,000 0,000
35.765,486 69.141,943
N = 4 periodesiklus
Tabel L2.3 Hasil Peramalan Regression Analysis Pola Siklis Produk ABITA SATIN
t dt
sin90t cos90t
dt Pembulatan dt
1 1,000
0,000 29.399,429
29.400 2
0,000 -1,000
11.914,857 11.915
3 14.120
-1,000 0,000
17.477,600 17.478
4 69.142
0,000 1,000
34.962,171 34.963
5 72.103
1,000 0,000
29.399,429 29.400
6 0,000
-1,000 11.914,857
11.915 7
74.057 -1,000
0,000 17.477,600
17.478 8
0,000 1,000
34.962,171 34.963
9 51.840
1,000 0,000
29.399,429 29.400
10 0,000
-1,000 11.914,857
11.915 11
-1,000 0,000
17.477,600 17.478
12 0,000
1,000 34.962,171
34.963 13
1,000 0,000
29.399,429 29.400
14 0,000
-1,000 11.914,857
11.915 15
-1,000 0,000
17.477,600 17.478
16 0,000
1,000 34.962,171
34.963
L2-4
Regression Analysis Pola Linier Siklis
Tabel L2.4 Perhitungan Regression Analysis Pola Linier Siklis Produk ABITA SATIN
t t
2
dt sin90t
sin
2
90t cos90t cos
2
90t sin90tcos90t dtsin90t
dtcos90t tsin90t tcos90t
tdt dt
Pembulatan dt
1 1
1,000 1,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 1,000
0,000 0,000
36.172,66 36.173
2 4
0,000 0,000
-1,000 1,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
-2,000 0,000
17.182,92 17.183
3 9
14.120 -1,000
1,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
-14.120,229 0,000
-3,000 0,000
42.360,686 24.250,83
24.251 4
16 69.142
0,000 0,000
1,000 1,000
0,000 0,000
69.141,943 0,000
4,000 276.567,771
40.230,23 40.231
5 25
72.103 1,000
1,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
72.102,857 0,000
5,000 0,000
360.514,286 30.152,00
30.152 6
36 0,000
0,000 -1,000
1,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 -6,000
0,000 11.162,26
11.163 7
49 74.057
-1,000 1,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 -74.057,143
0,000 -7,000
0,000 518.400,000
18.230,17 18.231
8 64
0,000 0,000
1,000 1,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
8,000 0,000
34.209,57 34.210
9 81
51.840 1,000
1,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
51.840,000 0,000
9,000 0,000
466.560,000 24.131,34
24.132 10
100 0,000
0,000 -1,000
1,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 -10,000
0,000 5.141,60
5.142 11
121 -1,000
1,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
-11,000 0,000
0,000 12.209,51
12.210 12
144 0,000
0,000 1,000
1,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
0,000 12,000
0,000 28.188,91
28.189 78
650 281.262
0,000 6,000
0,000 6,000
0,000 35.765,486
69.141,943 -6,000
6,000 1.664.402,743
-84.180,80
N = 4 periodesiklus
Tabel L2.5 Hasil Peramalan Regression Analysis Pola Linier Siklis Produk ABITA SATIN
t dt
sin90t cos90t
dt Pembulatan dt
1 1,000
0,000 36.172,66
36.173 2
0,000 -1,000
17.182,92 17.183
3 14.120
-1,000 0,000
24.250,83 24.251
4 69.142
0,000 1,000
40.230,23 40.231
5 72.103
1,000 0,000
30.152,00 30.152
6 0,000
-1,000 11.162,26
11.163 7
74.057 -1,000
0,000 18.230,17
18.231 8
0,000 1,000
34.209,57 34.210
9 51.840
1,000 0,000
24.131,34 24.132
10 0,000
-1,000 5.141,60
5.142 11
-1,000 0,000
12.209,51 12.210
12 0,000
1,000 28.188,91
28.189 13
1,000 0,000
18.110,68 18.111
14 0,000
-1,000 -879,06
-880 15
-1,000 0,000
6.188,85 6.189
16 0,000
1,000 22.168,25
22.169
L2-5
Tabel L2.6 Mean Absolute Error
MAEMean Absolute Deviation MAD Produk ABITA SATIN
dt |dt-dt|
dt |dt-dt|
dt |dt-dt|
1 29.400
29.400 36.173
36.173 2
11.915 11.915
17.183 17.183
3 14.120
17.478 3.358
24.251 10.131
4 69.142
17.651 51.491
34.963 34.179
40.231 28.911
5 72.103
93.488 21.385
29.400 42.703
30.152 41.951
6 114.110
114.110 11.915
11.915 11.163
11.163 7
74.057 -15.806
89.863 17.478
56.579 18.231
55.826 8
38.495 38.495
34.963 34.963
34.210 34.210
9 51.840
37.029 14.811
29.400 22.440
24.132 27.708
10 9.258
9.258 11.915
11.915 5.142
5.142 11
25.920 25.920
17.478 17.478
12.210 12.210
12 -38.880
38.880 34.963
34.963 28.189
28.189 13
29.400 18.111
14 11.915
-880 15
17.478 6.189
16 34.963
22.169 MAE
44.912,581 25.983,976
25.733,060
t dt
DMA M=2 Pola Siklis
Pola Linier Siklis Metode
Berdasarkan metode ukuran kesalahan peramalanerror MAE, hasil peramalan untuk produk ABITA SATIN menggunakan metode
peramalan pola linier siklis karena memiliki nilai error yang terkecil,
yaitu 25.733,060.
L2-6
b. JOSEPHINE STRETCH
