L2-18
2. Kategori 8 periode:
a. ARMANI 77PARIS 99
Gambar L2.6 Data Permintaan Produk ARMANI 77PARIS 99
Double Moving Average DMA
Tabel L2.23 Perhitungan Double Moving Average M=2 Produk ARMANI 77PARIS 99
Permintaan MA 2
MA 2x2 Ramalan Permintaan dt
dt St
St Nilai Ft+m = at+btm
1 2
46.186 23.092,941
3 24.300
35.242,941 29.167,941
41.317,941 12.150,000
0,000 4
12.150,000 23.696,471
603,529 -23.092,941
53.467,941 53.468
5 0,000
6.075,000 -6.075,000
-12.150,000 -22.489,412
-22.490 6
0,000 0,000
0,000 0,000
-18.225,000 -18.225
7 45.900
22.950,000 11.475,000
34.425,000 22.950,000
0,000 8
32.400 39.150,000
31.050,000 47.250,000
16.200,000 57.375,000
57.375 9
63.450,000 63.450
10 79.650,000
79.650 11
95.850,000 95.850
12 112.050,000
112.050
Nilai at Nilai bt
Periode Pembulatan dt
10,000 20,000
30,000 40,000
50,000
1 2
3 4
5 6
7 8
D e
ma n
d
Periode
ARMANI 77PARIS 99
Demand Rata-rata
L2-19
Regression Analysis Pola Siklis
Tabel L2.24 Hasil Peramalan Regression Analysis Pola Siklis
Produk ARMANI 77PARIS 99
t dt
sin90t cos90t
dt Pembulatan dt
1 1,000
0,000 6.898,235
6.899 2
46.186 0,000
-1,000 22.044,706
22.045 3
24.300 -1,000
0,000 30.298,235
30.299 4
0,000 1,000
15.151,765 15.152
5 1,000
0,000 6.898,235
6.899 6
0,000 -1,000
22.044,706 22.045
7 45.900
-1,000 0,000
30.298,235 30.299
8 32.400
0,000 1,000
15.151,765 15.152
9 1,000
0,000 6.898,235
6.899 10
0,000 -1,000
22.044,706 22.045
11 -1,000
0,000 30.298,235
30.299 12
0,000 1,000
15.151,765 15.152
N = 4 periodesiklus
Regression Analysis Pola Linier Siklis
Tabel L2.25 Hasil Peramalan Regression Analysis Pola Linier Siklis
Produk ARMANI 77PARIS 99
t dt
sin90t cos90t
dt Pembulatan dt
1 1,000
0,000 -409,15
-410 2
46.186 0,000
-1,000 21.170,28
21.171 3
24.300 -1,000
0,000 34.690,85
34.691 4
0,000 1,000
14.277,34 14.278
5 1,000
0,000 1.922,69
1.923 6
0,000 -1,000
23.502,12 23.503
7 45.900
-1,000 0,000
37.022,69 37.023
8 32.400
0,000 1,000
16.609,18 16.610
9 1,000
0,000 4.254,53
4.255 10
0,000 -1,000
25.833,96 25.834
11 -1,000
0,000 39.354,53
39.355 12
0,000 1,000
18.941,02 18.942
N = 4 periodesiklus
L2-20
Tabel L2.26 Mean Absolute Error
MAEMean Absolute Deviation MAD Produk ARMANI 77PARIS 99
dt |dt-dt|
dt |dt-dt|
dt |dt-dt|
1 6.899
6.899 -410
410 2
46.186 22.045
24.141 21.171
25.015 3
24.300 30.299
5.999 34.691
10.391 4
53.468 53.468
15.152 15.152
14.278 14.278
5 -22.490
22.490 6.899
6.899 1.923
1.923 6
-18.225 18.225
22.045 22.045
23.503 23.503
7 45.900
45.900 30.299
15.601 37.023
8.877 8
32.400 57.375
24.975 15.152
17.248 16.610
15.790 9
63.450 6.899
4.255 10
79.650 22.045
25.834 11
95.850 30.299
39.355 12
112.050 15.152
18.942 MAE
33.011,600 14.247,985
12.523,360
Periode dt
DMA M=2 Pola Siklis
Pola Linier Siklis Metode
Berdasarkan metode ukuran kesalahan peramalanerror MAE, hasil peramalan untuk produk ARMANI 77PARIS 99 menggunakan metode
peramalan pola linier siklis karena memiliki nilai error yang terkecil,
yaitu 12.523,360.
L2-21
b. CHLOE
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