Trend of Urbanization trend

1 1 Background at country­level

1.1 Trend of Urbanization trend

Bangkok Metropolis is still considered the prime city of the country. The size of the city’s population is 36 times of the second largest city, Nakhonrajchasima Municipality. There are 10 large sized cities 100,000 – 300,000 persons, 27 medium sized cities 50,000 – 100,000 persons, 91 urban communities 25,000 – 50,000 persons, 962 small urban communities 10,000 – 25,000 persons, and 6,687 rural communities in the country. Source NESDB, 2006. The majority of urban population agglomerated in the central region of the country, especially in the Bangkok Metropolitan region, the Eastern Seaboard and the Western Seaboard. The urban expansion has occurred in the industrial region and peri-urban areas such as Ayuthaya, Chonburi and Rayong. When looking at the general global urban development in the future, the United Nations stated that within next 20 years there will be more urban than rural population. Six out of ten world populations will reside in urban areas. The increase in number of population will be mainly in the large cities as people will migrate from rural to urban area. There will be more megacities and these megacities will especially locate in Asia. It is expected that in 2010, 50 of the country’s population will live in cities. The Bangkok Metropolis will be one of the megacities in the year 2030 with more than 10 million populations. The five cities in the selection process will also be more populated as they are the major growth centers in different regions of the country. There will be 14 million population increases in urban area in 20 years 2030. In the year 2006, there were 21.5 million people out of the country’s 62.8 million people residing in urban areas. If the projected population in 2030 is 70.6 million, then, there will be 35 million urban populations. Of all these urban population, 14 million people will reside in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region. As analyzed by the Department of City Planning, BMA, about 10 percent of the country’s population will be in the Bangkok Metropolis whereas the rest 10 will be in the region BMA, Department of City Planning, 2006. When looking at the population pyramid of the country’s population in 2030 projected by NESDB as seen in Table 1.1 , there will be changes in the age and sex structure. The trend for increase of female than male, making the sex ratio change to 51.15 of female and 48.85 of male is predicted. The age structure shows that the youth population will decrease meanwhile the middle aged 15-59 and the aging population 60+ will increase. The NESDB reveals that the country is moving forward to an aging population society. 2 Table 1.1. Population Projection for the whole Kingdom in Thousand Source NESDB Age Sex Year 2000 2010 2020 2030 0-14 Male Female 7,866 7,477 7,698 7,381 6,924 6,605 7,404 6,995 15-59 Male Female 20,143 20,882 22,462 23,025 2,3330 23,574 2,2422 2,2193 60+ Male Female 2,656 3,211 3,525 4,468 5,334 6,918 7,656 10,064 Total 62,236 68,559 72,685 76,734 Moreover, NESDB proposed that the country will move towards a creative and green economy for the next 5 years and onwards. This state of economy is based in more urban than in rural areas. As a result, they will draw the population of 15-59 years old to the cities. The aging population will reside both in urban and rural areas.

1.2 Climate change overview