2
Table 1.1. Population Projection for the whole Kingdom in Thousand Source NESDB
Age Sex
Year
2000 2010
2020 2030
0-14 Male Female
7,866 7,477
7,698 7,381
6,924 6,605
7,404 6,995
15-59 Male Female
20,143 20,882
22,462 23,025
2,3330 23,574
2,2422 2,2193
60+ Male Female
2,656 3,211
3,525 4,468
5,334 6,918
7,656 10,064
Total 62,236 68,559 72,685 76,734
Moreover, NESDB proposed that the country will move towards a creative and green economy for the next 5 years and onwards. This state of economy is based in more urban than
in rural areas. As a result, they will draw the population of 15-59 years old to the cities. The aging population will reside both in urban and rural areas.
1.2 Climate change overview
The utilization of fossil fuel in the country is among many causes resulting in climate change phenomena in the country. From research conducted for MANRES project on the economics
of watershed management with a case study of Mae Teng TDRI, 1995, it is found that urban areas, especially those locate along the waterways canals and rivers and coastal area are
subjected to impacts from climate change. The effects are the result from release of green house gases to the global atmosphere. The phenomena include change in temperature
average temperatures high and low temperature, number of hot and cool days in a year and changes in precipitation pattern amount of rainfall, number of rainy days in a year and
intensity.
The study on the impact of climate change on natural resources and environment in Thailand conducted by Mahidol University in 2008 divided the time period into 3 periods; 2010- 2039,
2050-2059, and 2080-2089. The assessment is based on SEA START 2008 study.
The findings for the climate change scenario for the country area:
1
The average highest temperature during the first period 2010 –2039 will not change much and it will be 34-36
°C. But, the area coverage will expand to cover the whole country region, lower northern region and part of the southern region. By the end of the
century, the average high temperature will increase about 4 °C 38-40°C covering the
3 whole country. The country will experience longer summer periods. By 2039, all the
central region and part of the southern region will have summer periods longer than 8 months in a year. By the end of the century, the summer for the whole country will last
longer than 8 monthsyear Mahidol University 2008 pp 24-25.
2
Secondly, the average lowest temperature for every region, except the northern region, will be 24
°C from 2010-2039 which will be higher than the past minimum temperatures. The average lowest temperature in the north will maintain at 18-22
°C. Further, the extent of area coverage for lowest temperature will be decreased. By the end of the
century 2089, more than 90 percent of the area of the country will have the lowest temperature as high as 24
°C. The period of cold season will be decreased. In the area of the northern and the northeastern regions, the duration of cold period with 16
°C will be reduced from 2 - 2.5 months during the beginning of the century to 1 month Source
Report, Mahidol University 2008, pp 24-25.
3
Thirdly, there will be increase in annual rainfall for the whole country. However, the total annual rainy days will remain more or less the same as before Mahidol University
2008, pp 25
.
As a result, Institute of Public Studies of Chiang Mai University has assessed that there are 3 areas of risks and vulnerability for the country:
• Physical, infrastructure, settlement and tourism;
• Agriculture and food security; and
• Health and public health services
The assessment is in the process to propose national plan to encounter climate change.
1.3 Management framework on climate change impacts
