Comparative assessment of Impact of Climate hazard r events

149 10 Recommendations

10.1 Comparative assessment of Impact of Climate hazard r events

Disaster data category which indicates the impacts to respective Districtcity is highly relevant to the discussion of Climate change. Although the correlation between climate change and disaster occurrence cannot be systematically assessed without carrying out proper and detail research studies. However the trends concerning the frequency and the intensity of extreme climate related events could serve as a hint to reveal certain climatic tendencies and to detect some climatic change scenarios. Due to the lack of consistency of disaster related data for Thai cities, the data received from different sources have been reviewed and reassessed several times during data collection process. 25 year record on disaster past events have been expected. Due to the recent centralization and institutionalization of disaster management capacity through establishment of the Department of Disaster Prevention and MitigationDDPM six years ago, the data pertinent to target cities for a period of last 6 years could be collected with certain consistency. But no detailed information related to the impacts and the precise location is included in the database on consistent basis. Therefore, ADPC team had to base its analysis on data collected from 2003 onwards, essentially on the provincial level. ADPC gathered information on five disaster types, namely floods, droughts, tropical storms, health hazards and landslides; the number of events per year highlights the frequency the province has to cope with such disaster events. The number of people affected and the number of households affected conveyed the severity of the disaster and the level of existing disaster preparedness and mitigation has been analyzed through programs and projects implemented in respective cities. The number of building partially orand totally damaged, the agricultural area affected, the roads and bridges affected stressed the degree of vulnerability to such events. The data relevant to loss estimation conveys the severity of the disaster event and potential impacts expected in future can be extrapolated using such estimates. The analysis of disaster data over six to seven years led to identify the trends, in terms of frequency of occurrence in the five provinces. The level of resilience could be then assessed broadly, through the first order disaster related data studies. For the purpose of city selection, a comparative assessment on occurrence of climate hazards and impacts using the data obtained from five districts has been carried out and the outcome is reported below through the Table 10.1. However it should be noted that the data history is only limited to 06 years and hence no attempt was made to forecast the future occurrences or return periods with regards to prevailing climate hazards in 05 selected areas. 150 Table 10.1. Comparative assessment of five provinces evaluating their relative impact due to disaster events Udon Thani Chiang Rai Phuket Hat Yai Samut Sakhon 1 Floods 3 4 2 5 1 2 Landslides 0 5 4 3 0 3 Storm surge 0 0 5 0 1 4 Drought 5 4 3 2 1 5 Sea level rise 3 5 6 Cyclones 5 4 2 3 0

10.2 Comparative Assessment in relation to Climate Change scenario of