3 whole country. The country will experience longer summer periods. By 2039, all the
central region and part of the southern region will have summer periods longer than 8 months in a year. By the end of the century, the summer for the whole country will last
longer than 8 monthsyear Mahidol University 2008 pp 24-25.
2
Secondly, the average lowest temperature for every region, except the northern region, will be 24
°C from 2010-2039 which will be higher than the past minimum temperatures. The average lowest temperature in the north will maintain at 18-22
°C. Further, the extent of area coverage for lowest temperature will be decreased. By the end of the
century 2089, more than 90 percent of the area of the country will have the lowest temperature as high as 24
°C. The period of cold season will be decreased. In the area of the northern and the northeastern regions, the duration of cold period with 16
°C will be reduced from 2 - 2.5 months during the beginning of the century to 1 month Source
Report, Mahidol University 2008, pp 24-25.
3
Thirdly, there will be increase in annual rainfall for the whole country. However, the total annual rainy days will remain more or less the same as before Mahidol University
2008, pp 25
.
As a result, Institute of Public Studies of Chiang Mai University has assessed that there are 3 areas of risks and vulnerability for the country:
• Physical, infrastructure, settlement and tourism;
• Agriculture and food security; and
• Health and public health services
The assessment is in the process to propose national plan to encounter climate change.
1.3 Management framework on climate change impacts
Following the Kyoto Protocol 2002, Thailand is classified in the group of the countries under Non-Annex I Countries. Thailand does not have obligation to reduce greenhouse gases.
Nevertheless, the government considered that the country is in the process of continuous socio-economic development, there may be increase in greenhouse gas emission in the future.
The country should participate in global forum on alleviating the impact of climate change. As a result, the Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment started establishing work plan
to follow the international agreement on climate change in 2005. This project incorporated all related government and non-government agencies to work together. The Office of
Environment Policy and Planning ONEP have integrated many ideas, policies, and plans from related agencies. Then the first national strategy on climate change was formulated in
2006 under the participatory process of involving all concerned parties. By the beginning of 2008 the cabinet approved the national strategies 2008-2012. The related government
agencies had to use as the framework for their own organizations policies, plans, and actions.
The objective of the national strategy on climate change management 2008-2012 is as follow;
4 1.
To prepare the country to understand the issue, to mitigate, and to adapt to the impacts from climate change.
2. To join the global panel in reducing the emission of greenhouse gases on the
sustainable development basis following the international agreement at the Kyoto Protocol.
3. To promote the integration from concerned parties in planning and implementation in
order to solve the country’s climate change problems systematically.
There are 6 strategies to fulfill the above objectives. These strategies for 2008-2012 action plans are:
1 To build capacity in adaptation to mitigate and reduce the vulnerability results from
climate change. 2
To support the reduction of greenhouse gas emission and increase of area absorbing gas on the sustainable development basis.
3 To support research and development in order to promote clear understanding on
climate change. 4
To build awareness and participation in problem solving related to climate change. 5
To increase potentiality of related personnel and agencies in implementing climate change related projects and
6 To develop international corporation tasks with foreign counties
The proposed strategies were proposed by ONEP, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. The implementations of these strategies are suggested to be performed by
almost all government agencies. The local administrative organization is also play important roles in the strategies suggested.
As seen from above the objectives of the National Strategy proposed are in line with the objectives of the Program under Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Networks
implemented jointly by Thai Environmental Institute TEI and Asian Disaster Preparedness Center ADPC in selected cities in Thailand and supported by Rockefeller Foundation.
5
2 Objectives of the study under ACCCRN phase I
The environmental issue of climate change poses great challenges facing decision makers at many levels. Shifting weather patterns threatens food production, infrastructure durability and
livelihood sustainability through increased unreliability of precipitation and increased unpredictability of temperature; Storm surges demolish fragile economic activities; rising sea
levels contaminate water bodies and increase the risk of catastrophic flooding; and a warming atmosphere expands the risk of pests and diseases once limited to the tropics to widespread
pole-ward.
Climate change still relies on potential climate patterns. Uncertainties remain in climate change science, especially regarding the operation and interaction of Earth systems over
various timeframes and how subsystems react to feedbacks. But, unpredictability of climate change is part of what it makes it so dangerous Smith 2008. Subsequently, building climate
change scenarios is crucial to encompass the whole range of climatic possible evolutions. Each scenario will be attributed a percentage reflecting its reliability and its propensity to
occur. The linkage between the climate change effects and its impacts, logically demonstrated through the scenarios, will enable the decision makers to get a clear picture of the potential
changes and will guide them to take the necessary steps to adapt to climate change impacts.
The project is working in urban context, where most of the local assets in terms of economic, social and cultural values are concentrated. The vulnerability assessment ADPC will further
conduct on infrastructure and built up environment will give a comprehensive understanding of what is at risk at the micro-scale level in the two selected cities. TEI will further identify
the most accurate stakeholders to carry on climate change adaptation initiatives at the city level. Decision makers can consequently identify and advisedly take decision on the most
accurate mechanisms towards climate change at local adaptation.
2.1 Overall objectives of the project
