Land Use Transition Probability
55 to 0.19, and these are the second highest probability in Cropland transitions. The
probability of Cropland to transform into Forest land, Other lands and Settlements also decreased. The transition probability of Cropland during 2002 – 2005 and
2005 – 2008 indicates that existing Cropland and other land uses which have been transformed into Cropland tended to not change, and only small probability of
Cropland would be transformed into other land uses. Table 11. Transition Probability Matrix 2002 - 2005
Land Use 2005
2002
F C G W S O
Total Forest land F
0.6967 0.1247 0.1132 0.0000 0.0021 0.0633 1.0000
Cropland C 0.0871
0.6225 0.2388 0.0000 0.0083 0.0433 1.0000
Grassland G 0.0756 0.3949 0.4654
0.0000 0.0191 0.0450 1.0000
Wetlands W 0.0000
0.0000 0.0000
1.0000 0.0000
0.0000 1.0000
Settlements S
0.0015 0.0110 0.0246 0.0000 0.9590 0.0039 1.0000
Other lands O 0.1169 0.5002 0.2805 0.0000 0.0235 0.0789 1.0000
Note: Wetlands are assumed in stable condition, not transform into other land uses.
Table 12. Transition Probability Matrix 2005 - 2008
Land Use 2008
2005
F C G W S O
Total Forest land F
0.6904 0.1625 0.1102 0.0000 0.0015 0.0355 1.0000
Cropland C 0.0301
0.7221 0.1929 0.0000 0.0047 0.0502 1.0000
Grassland G
0.0256 0.4753 0.4365 0.0000 0.0194 0.0432 1.0000
Wetlands W 0.0000
0.0000 0.0000
1.0000 0.0000
0.0000 1.0000
Settlements S 0.0014 0.0215 0.0182 0.0000
0.9562 0.0026 1.0000
Other lands O 0.0215 0.5167 0.3722 0.0000 0.0109 0.0787 1.0000
Note: Wetlands are assumed in stable condition, not transform into other land uses.
The probability of Grassland to be in stable condition reached 0.47 during 2002 – 2005, whereas the probability to transform into Cropland reached 0.39.
However during 2005 – 2008 the probabilities were changed quite significantly, where the probability of Grassland to transform into Cropland increased to 0.47
and exceeded the probability of Grassland to be in stable condition which had 0.44. The probability of Grassland to transform into Forest land decreased from
0.08 to 0.03, whereas the probability to transform into Settlements and Other lands did not change significantly. The transition probabilities of Grassland show
that whether existing Grassland or new area of Grassland tended to be in stable condition and to transform into Cropland have balanced probability, and this
56 could indicate that most of Grassland were a transition land use before the land
transformed into Cropland completely. During 2002 – 2008, the probability of Other lands to transform into
Cropland were the highest rather than other transitions in Other lands category, which slightly increased from 0.50 to 0.52. The probability of Other land to
transform into Grassland also increased significantly from 0.28 to 0.37, whereas the probability to transform into Forest land decreased very confident from 0.12 to
0.02. Other lands transformed into Settlements have smallest probability which equal to 0.02 during 2002 – 2005, and then decreased to 0.01 during 2005 - 2008.
The probability of Other lands to be in stable condition did not changed significantly during 2002 – 2008 which equal to 0.08. The transition probabilities
of Other lands which have been discussed show that most of Other lands transformed into Cropland and Grassland, and only few parts transformed into
Forest land and Settlements. The probability of Other lands to not transform into other land uses is quite small, and this indicated that Other lands were not a stable
land use and might be just a transition land use like Grassland which would be transformed into Grassland and Cropland in the future.
Settlements were the land use category which had liability to be in stable condition during 2002 – 2008 with a very confident probability probability
0.95. This indicated that the existing Settlements and new Settlements area which have been developed tended to not transform into other land uses. Wetlands in this
research were assumed in stable condition, so that the transition probability of Wetlands tended to be not change equal to 1.00.