Land Use Transition Probability

55 to 0.19, and these are the second highest probability in Cropland transitions. The probability of Cropland to transform into Forest land, Other lands and Settlements also decreased. The transition probability of Cropland during 2002 – 2005 and 2005 – 2008 indicates that existing Cropland and other land uses which have been transformed into Cropland tended to not change, and only small probability of Cropland would be transformed into other land uses. Table 11. Transition Probability Matrix 2002 - 2005 Land Use 2005 2002 F C G W S O Total Forest land F 0.6967 0.1247 0.1132 0.0000 0.0021 0.0633 1.0000 Cropland C 0.0871 0.6225 0.2388 0.0000 0.0083 0.0433 1.0000 Grassland G 0.0756 0.3949 0.4654 0.0000 0.0191 0.0450 1.0000 Wetlands W 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000 Settlements S 0.0015 0.0110 0.0246 0.0000 0.9590 0.0039 1.0000 Other lands O 0.1169 0.5002 0.2805 0.0000 0.0235 0.0789 1.0000 Note: Wetlands are assumed in stable condition, not transform into other land uses. Table 12. Transition Probability Matrix 2005 - 2008 Land Use 2008 2005 F C G W S O Total Forest land F 0.6904 0.1625 0.1102 0.0000 0.0015 0.0355 1.0000 Cropland C 0.0301 0.7221 0.1929 0.0000 0.0047 0.0502 1.0000 Grassland G 0.0256 0.4753 0.4365 0.0000 0.0194 0.0432 1.0000 Wetlands W 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 1.0000 Settlements S 0.0014 0.0215 0.0182 0.0000 0.9562 0.0026 1.0000 Other lands O 0.0215 0.5167 0.3722 0.0000 0.0109 0.0787 1.0000 Note: Wetlands are assumed in stable condition, not transform into other land uses. The probability of Grassland to be in stable condition reached 0.47 during 2002 – 2005, whereas the probability to transform into Cropland reached 0.39. However during 2005 – 2008 the probabilities were changed quite significantly, where the probability of Grassland to transform into Cropland increased to 0.47 and exceeded the probability of Grassland to be in stable condition which had 0.44. The probability of Grassland to transform into Forest land decreased from 0.08 to 0.03, whereas the probability to transform into Settlements and Other lands did not change significantly. The transition probabilities of Grassland show that whether existing Grassland or new area of Grassland tended to be in stable condition and to transform into Cropland have balanced probability, and this 56 could indicate that most of Grassland were a transition land use before the land transformed into Cropland completely. During 2002 – 2008, the probability of Other lands to transform into Cropland were the highest rather than other transitions in Other lands category, which slightly increased from 0.50 to 0.52. The probability of Other land to transform into Grassland also increased significantly from 0.28 to 0.37, whereas the probability to transform into Forest land decreased very confident from 0.12 to 0.02. Other lands transformed into Settlements have smallest probability which equal to 0.02 during 2002 – 2005, and then decreased to 0.01 during 2005 - 2008. The probability of Other lands to be in stable condition did not changed significantly during 2002 – 2008 which equal to 0.08. The transition probabilities of Other lands which have been discussed show that most of Other lands transformed into Cropland and Grassland, and only few parts transformed into Forest land and Settlements. The probability of Other lands to not transform into other land uses is quite small, and this indicated that Other lands were not a stable land use and might be just a transition land use like Grassland which would be transformed into Grassland and Cropland in the future. Settlements were the land use category which had liability to be in stable condition during 2002 – 2008 with a very confident probability probability 0.95. This indicated that the existing Settlements and new Settlements area which have been developed tended to not transform into other land uses. Wetlands in this research were assumed in stable condition, so that the transition probability of Wetlands tended to be not change equal to 1.00.

4.3.2 Land Use Change Schemes

The land use change schemes of Siak District have been developed in this research in order to examine and give clear figures on how the major land use transitions happen in Siak District during 2002 – 2005 and 2005 – 2008. Two land use change schemes have been generated from the top three of transition probability values during 2002 – 2005 and 2005 – 2008, and they are shown in Figure 21 and Figure 22 respectively. 57 Figure 21. Land Use Change Scheme 2002 – 2005 in Siak District Figure 22. Land Use Change Scheme 2005 – 2008 in Siak District The land use change scheme 2002 – 2005 shows that all land use categories tended to not transform into other land uses stable condition with high probabilities. Wetlands, which are assumed in stable condition, and Settlements,