Land Use Change Schemes
57 Figure 21. Land Use Change Scheme 2002 – 2005 in Siak District
Figure 22. Land Use Change Scheme 2005 – 2008 in Siak District The land use change scheme 2002 – 2005 shows that all land use
categories tended to not transform into other land uses stable condition with high probabilities. Wetlands, which are assumed in stable condition, and Settlements,
58 are the land use categories which have the highest probability for being in stable
condition. The probability of Forest land, Cropland, and Grassland tended to be in stable condition were 70, 62, and 47 respectively. The land use change
scheme 2002 – 2005 also show that the three dominant land use categories in Siak District, which are Forest land, Cropland, and Grassland, transformed each other
which constructed the triangle of major land use transitions with reciprocal transitions
. Forest land transformed into Cropland and Grassland, and it contributed deforestation in Siak District with total probability 33 of Forest land
is deforested. Reversely, only 9 of Cropland and 8 of Grassland transformed into Forest land reforestation during 2002 – 2005. In the same period, Other
lands also contributed reforestation with probability 12 of Other lands were reforested. During 2002 – 2005, Other lands tended to contribute the area
expansion of the three dominant land use categories with significant probabilities, which majority of Other lands transformed into Cropland and Grassland with
probability 50 and 28 respectively. The land use change scheme 2005 – 2008 shows the similar scheme with
the scheme 2002 – 2005, that all land use categories tended to be in stable condition with high probabilities, which Wetlands and Settlements, are the land
use categories which have the highest probability for being in stable condition. However, the probability of Forest land and Grassland to be in stable condition
slightly decreased which became 69 and 44 respectively, whereas the probability of Cropland to be in stable condition increased dramatically which
became 72. The triangle of major land use transitions with reciprocal transitions
among Forest land, Cropland, and Grassland did not happen during 2005 – 2008. The transformations from Forest land to Cropland and Grassland
deforestation happen in one-way transitions. The deforestation probability increased which became 37 of Forest land was deforested. Reversely, the
transformations from Cropland and Grassland to Forest land reforestation did not count as major land use transitions during 2005 – 2008. Small portion of
Cropland and Grassland instead transformed into Other lands during 2005 – 2008, and reversely the majority of Other lands transformed into Cropland and
Grassland with probability 52 and 37 respectively.
59 The illustrations and the discussion about land use change scheme show
that the land use change schemes in Siak District were different during two time periods, which means the major land use transitions also changed during 2002 –
2005 and 2005 – 2008. The situation that should be highlighted and considered by Siak District is the increasing of deforestation probability as one of major land use
transitions during 2002 – 2008. This situation was getting bad, since the reforestation was not done significantly and was not also visible as major land use
transitions according to the land use change scheme 2005 – 2008. If this situation continues, it is possible that the Forest land in Siak District, which the majority is
Peatland Forest, will continues to decline and probably in the future will be exhausted and will be replaced by Cropland. This situation is also motivated by
the increasing probability of Forest land and other land uses to transform into Cropland and probability of Cropland to be in stable condition.
Figure 23. Crop Plantation Cropland Category in Siak District