Observed Land Use Change Driving Factors
82 timber plantation completely, since the land preparation of its plantations
involving the land clearing activity in the initial land uses. Forest which are close to existing crop and timber plantation tends to be transformed into new plantation
rather than forest which are far from existing plantation area. Furthermore, the establishment of crop and timber plantation in Siak District also stimulates new
development of settlements and market place which are usually developed around the plantation area.
Figure 32. Development of new crop plantation and settlements stimulated by existing Cropland
During 2002 – 2008, Siak District has developed new road for about 562 km with total length of road in 2008 is 2,064 km Siak Government 2008. The
road development in Siak District will be continued until next couple years in order to open the accessibility of the remote areas to the central area, and
hopefully in the future new central areas will also be developed. The road development may open the accessibility of socio-economic activities in remote
areas, but in the other hand the establishment of new road will also stimulate the land use change on either side of the road. In fact, the developments of new road
itself have altered the initial land uses to be Built up area road. The establishment of new roads which are close to forest is the starting point for Forest
land to be deforested, and also motivates the conversion from the initial land uses on side of the road for other land uses, such as settlements area and agriculture
area. A simple spatial analysis, which overlaid the major land use transitions and the distance from road, show that most of major land use transitions are located in
the area which are close to road 1 km, and only Forest land in stable condition are mostly located far from the road 1 km.
83 Figure 33. The establishment of new road in Siak District
threatens Forest land on the side of road
Figure 34. Shrub land was Forest land on the side of road allocated for new settlement area
‐ 50,000
100,000 150,000
200,000 250,000
CC CF
CG FC
FF FG
GC GF
GG 1 km
1 km
‐ 4,000
8,000 12,000
16,000 20,000
OC OF
OG SC
SG SS
WW 1 km
1 km
a major land use transitions during 2002 - 2005
‐ 50,000
100,000 150,000
200,000 250,000
CC CG
CO FC
FF FG
GC GG
GO 1 km
1 km
‐ 4,000
8,000 12,000
16,000 20,000
OC OG
OO SC
SG SS
WW 1 km
1 km
b major land use transitions during 2005 – 2008
Figure 35. Major land use transitions vs. the distance from road
84 Spatial plans of Siak District play important roles in managing the land
under their district and arrange the use of land and human activities in its land. In district level, there are three level of spatial plans should be considered by the
district government, which are spatial plan at national level, province level, and also district level. The spatial plan at national level guides the spatial plan for
every province in Indonesia, and the spatial plan at district level should consider the spatial plan in higher level national and province level as guidance in
managing land in the district. However, the paradigm of decentralization which supports the local government to govern their land based on their needs and
desires has changed the hierarchy of spatial plans in the district level. The district government which acts as land lord has extensive authority to manage their land,
and in many cases the land policy spatial plan produced by the district government do not synchronous with the policy at higher level national and
province level. This decentralization euphoria also happens in Siak District since the enlargement of Siak District done in 1999.
The Parameter Estimates for spatial plans variables as result of MLR model analysis, which have been discussed in the previous chapter, show that the
spatial plans at national, province, and district level contribute different effects not synchronous to the land use change happen in Siak District. The spatial
plans at national and province level contribute quite similar effect to the land use transitions in Siak District, whereas the spatial plan at district level contributes the
contrast effect from two higher levels of spatial plans. The spatial plans at national and province level prevent the likelihood of most of major land use transitions,
whereas the spatial plan at district level increases the likelihood of most of major land use transitions in Siak District. These conditions can be understandably since
the Siak District as a new district should manage their land extensively in order to increase their income and people welfare, so that hopefully in the future Siak
District may be at the same level as other districts. However, the unsynchronized spatial plans in Siak District may lead the confusion in land use management
because of the overlapping interests between the district government with province and national government. This situation may become a gap on land
policy which can be used by the irresponsible parties to use the land
85 inappropriately, and it may also lead the land use management in Siak District can
not be controlled properly. Reversely, the synchronized spatial plans among different administrative levels national, province, and district, which is an ideal
scheme of spatial plans, may prevent the continuous deforestation in Siak District and other undesirable land use change and furthermore may support the
sustainable natural resources management in Siak District. Table 19. The Parameter Estimates for Spatial Plan at different levels
Spatial Plan Level Land Use
Transition National
kwsid Province
rtrwpid District
concessid FC
-0.145 -0.024 -0.120 FG
-0.179 0.006 0.286 FS
-0.094 0.011 0.025 FO
-0.019 0.027 0.093 CF
-0.268 -0.179 0.373 CC
-0.048 -0.041 0.178 CG
-0.121 -0.035 0.287 CS
-0.099 -0.060 0.276 CO
-0.104 -0.029 0.088 GF
-0.028 -0.036 0.104 GC
-0.147 -0.028 0.218 GG
-0.105 0.006 0.439 GS
-0.067 -0.049 0.224 GO
-0.075 -0.058 0.103 WW
0.043 0.156 -0.047 SF
-0.122 -0.085 0.343 SC
-0.097 -0.086 0.609 SG
-0.230 -0.074 0.709 SS
-0.124 -0.014 0.795 SO
-0.378 -0.076 0.609 OF
-0.225 -0.111 0.649 OC
-0.091 -0.118 0.179 OG
0.022 0.021 0.360 OS
0.158 -0.109 0.454 OO
0.065 0.115 -0.120 The reference category is FF.