Observed Land Use Change Driving Factors

82 timber plantation completely, since the land preparation of its plantations involving the land clearing activity in the initial land uses. Forest which are close to existing crop and timber plantation tends to be transformed into new plantation rather than forest which are far from existing plantation area. Furthermore, the establishment of crop and timber plantation in Siak District also stimulates new development of settlements and market place which are usually developed around the plantation area. Figure 32. Development of new crop plantation and settlements stimulated by existing Cropland During 2002 – 2008, Siak District has developed new road for about 562 km with total length of road in 2008 is 2,064 km Siak Government 2008. The road development in Siak District will be continued until next couple years in order to open the accessibility of the remote areas to the central area, and hopefully in the future new central areas will also be developed. The road development may open the accessibility of socio-economic activities in remote areas, but in the other hand the establishment of new road will also stimulate the land use change on either side of the road. In fact, the developments of new road itself have altered the initial land uses to be Built up area road. The establishment of new roads which are close to forest is the starting point for Forest land to be deforested, and also motivates the conversion from the initial land uses on side of the road for other land uses, such as settlements area and agriculture area. A simple spatial analysis, which overlaid the major land use transitions and the distance from road, show that most of major land use transitions are located in the area which are close to road 1 km, and only Forest land in stable condition are mostly located far from the road 1 km. 83 Figure 33. The establishment of new road in Siak District threatens Forest land on the side of road Figure 34. Shrub land was Forest land on the side of road allocated for new settlement area ‐ 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 CC CF CG FC FF FG GC GF GG 1 km 1 km ‐ 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 OC OF OG SC SG SS WW 1 km 1 km a major land use transitions during 2002 - 2005 ‐ 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 CC CG CO FC FF FG GC GG GO 1 km 1 km ‐ 4,000 8,000 12,000 16,000 20,000 OC OG OO SC SG SS WW 1 km 1 km b major land use transitions during 2005 – 2008 Figure 35. Major land use transitions vs. the distance from road 84 Spatial plans of Siak District play important roles in managing the land under their district and arrange the use of land and human activities in its land. In district level, there are three level of spatial plans should be considered by the district government, which are spatial plan at national level, province level, and also district level. The spatial plan at national level guides the spatial plan for every province in Indonesia, and the spatial plan at district level should consider the spatial plan in higher level national and province level as guidance in managing land in the district. However, the paradigm of decentralization which supports the local government to govern their land based on their needs and desires has changed the hierarchy of spatial plans in the district level. The district government which acts as land lord has extensive authority to manage their land, and in many cases the land policy spatial plan produced by the district government do not synchronous with the policy at higher level national and province level. This decentralization euphoria also happens in Siak District since the enlargement of Siak District done in 1999. The Parameter Estimates for spatial plans variables as result of MLR model analysis, which have been discussed in the previous chapter, show that the spatial plans at national, province, and district level contribute different effects not synchronous to the land use change happen in Siak District. The spatial plans at national and province level contribute quite similar effect to the land use transitions in Siak District, whereas the spatial plan at district level contributes the contrast effect from two higher levels of spatial plans. The spatial plans at national and province level prevent the likelihood of most of major land use transitions, whereas the spatial plan at district level increases the likelihood of most of major land use transitions in Siak District. These conditions can be understandably since the Siak District as a new district should manage their land extensively in order to increase their income and people welfare, so that hopefully in the future Siak District may be at the same level as other districts. However, the unsynchronized spatial plans in Siak District may lead the confusion in land use management because of the overlapping interests between the district government with province and national government. This situation may become a gap on land policy which can be used by the irresponsible parties to use the land 85 inappropriately, and it may also lead the land use management in Siak District can not be controlled properly. Reversely, the synchronized spatial plans among different administrative levels national, province, and district, which is an ideal scheme of spatial plans, may prevent the continuous deforestation in Siak District and other undesirable land use change and furthermore may support the sustainable natural resources management in Siak District. Table 19. The Parameter Estimates for Spatial Plan at different levels Spatial Plan Level Land Use Transition National kwsid Province rtrwpid District concessid FC -0.145 -0.024 -0.120 FG -0.179 0.006 0.286 FS -0.094 0.011 0.025 FO -0.019 0.027 0.093 CF -0.268 -0.179 0.373 CC -0.048 -0.041 0.178 CG -0.121 -0.035 0.287 CS -0.099 -0.060 0.276 CO -0.104 -0.029 0.088 GF -0.028 -0.036 0.104 GC -0.147 -0.028 0.218 GG -0.105 0.006 0.439 GS -0.067 -0.049 0.224 GO -0.075 -0.058 0.103 WW 0.043 0.156 -0.047 SF -0.122 -0.085 0.343 SC -0.097 -0.086 0.609 SG -0.230 -0.074 0.709 SS -0.124 -0.014 0.795 SO -0.378 -0.076 0.609 OF -0.225 -0.111 0.649 OC -0.091 -0.118 0.179 OG 0.022 0.021 0.360 OS 0.158 -0.109 0.454 OO 0.065 0.115 -0.120 The reference category is FF.

4.4.3.2 Significance Test for Observed Variables

Based on the observation in the research site, the variables may involve in driving the land use change in Siak District are the existences of crop and timber plantation and the existences of road network, in term of their distances to the existing land use. Furthermore, the spatial plans at national, province, and district level may also involve in driving land use change in Siak District. However, in 86 order to convince that the observed variables have significant contribution to the land use change happen in Siak District, the procedure of likelihood ratio tests have been done in order to check the contribution of each effect to the land use change model. Table 20. Likelihood Ratio Tests for Observed Variables Likelihood Ratio Tests 43614.131 1788.275 25 .000 49206.686 7380.831 25 .000 42221.697 395.841 25 .000 42168.217 342.362 25 .000 42353.022 527.167 25 .000 42027.977 202.121 25 .000 Effect Intercept CROPDIST02 ROADDIST KWSID RTRWPID CONCESSID -2 Log Likelihood of Reduced Model Model Fitting Criteria Chi-Square df Sig. Likelihood Ratio Tests The chi-square statistic is the difference in -2 log-likelihoods between the final model and a reduced model. The reduced model is formed by omitting an effect from the final model. The null hypothesis is that all parameters of that effect are 0. The result of likelihood ratio tests for each observed variable done in MLR model analysis shows that the significance levels of the observed variables tested are less than 0.05, and in other word all observed variables may be considered as significant variables of land use change in Siak District and would be included into the final model. The list of significant variables would be included into the model is shown in Table 20.

4.4.3.3 Significance Test for Final Model 2

nd Scenario There were two tests which have been done in order to determine whether the final model were adequate to explain the land use change happen in Siak District or not. The tests done were Likelihood Ratio Test of the final model and Pseudo R-Square statistics. Based on the likelihood ratio test of the final model, the significance level produced is less than 0.05 Sig.0.05 which may be concluded that the final model which has been produced was outperforming the Null. In other words, the land use change model of Siak District that has been developed by considering the observed variables could be concluded as a good fit model.