Parameter Estimates 1 MLR Model using All Significant Variables 1
73 use transition WW 16, and OO 26. The decreasing distance from Other lands
will increase the likelihood of land use transition GO 15, all land use transitions from Settlement, and all land use transition from Other lands.
The human environment contributes 15 parameters on the land use change model of Siak District. Most of parameters in human environment have positive
coefficients with value which are close to 0.000 for most land use transitions in Siak District, and only distance from road and population density have different
coefficients characteristics. The distance from road is the parameter that contributes in decreasing the likelihood of most land use transitions, and only land
use transition FS 4, CG 8, CS 9, CO 10, and GC 12 have positive coefficients which are close to 0.000. These mean that the increasing distance
from road will decrease the likelihood of most land uses to transform into other land uses, and reversely the closer distance from road will increase its likelihood.
The population density has positive coefficients which will contribute the increasing of the likelihood of all land use transitions in Siak District. The
increasing population density will increase the likelihood of land use transitions which happen in Siak District.
The policy contributes 3 parameters on the final model that are Forestry Spatial Plan at national level, Spatial Plan at province level, and Forestry and
Crop Spatial Plan at district level. The Forestry Spatial Plan at national level contributes the effect to the likelihood of most land use transitions negatively, and
only likelihood of land use transition WW 16, OG 24, OS 25, and OO 26 which will be increased because of the implementation of its spatial plan. In other
word, the Forestry Spatial Plan at national level may drive the land use transitions happen in Siak District which prevent most of land uses to be transformed into
other land uses, keep the Wetlands and Other lands in stable condition, and in the same time increase the utilization of bareland as the major land use in Other
lands by replanting vegetation and developing the settlement area. The Spatial Plan at province level has little different effect to the likelihood of land use
transitions rather than the Forestry Spatial at national level. The Spatial Plan at province level prevent most of land uses to be transformed into other land uses,
keep the Grassland, Wetlands and Other lands in stable condition, and in the same
74 time increase the utilization of Other lands by replanting vegetation. However, the
Spatial Plan at province level also increases the likelihood of land use transition FG 3, FS 4, and FO 5. The last parameter in policy theme which has
significant contribution on the final model is Forestry and Crop Spatial Plan at district level. In general Forestry and Crop Spatial Plan at district level contributes
contrastopposite effect rather than two spatial plans that have been discussed. Its spatial plan increase the likelihood of most land use transitions in Siak District,
whereas decrease only the likelihood of land use transition FC 2, WW 16, and OO 26.
The discussion about parameter estimates has been done in order to reveal the effect of significant parameters to the land use transitions, so that it can
support the understanding of the land use change process in Siak District generally. Furthermore, there are some facts which can be learned from the
parameter estimates produced. First fact, the MLR model is generalized model that can be applied to model land use change in Siak District which forces all
significant parameters determined to every land use transitions that have been detected. Every land use transitions have various parameters coefficients which
can be used to describe the direct effects of parameters to the land use transitions that happen in Siak District. Finally, the parameters on natural environment,
human environment, and policy drive the land use change in Siak District in different manners.