Significance Test for Final Model 2

87 Table 21. Likelihood Ratio Test of the Final Model 2 nd Scenario Model Fitting Information 53960.379 41825.856 12134.524 125 .000 Model Intercept Only Final -2 Log Likelihood Model Fitting Criteria Chi-Square df Sig. Likelihood Ratio Tests Table 22. Pseudo R-Square Statistics 2 nd Scenario Pseudo R-Square .703 .706 .225 Cox and Snell Nagelkerke McFadden Furthermore, the pseudo r-squared statistics, either Cox and Snell or Nagelkerke, indicate that the variability of land use change in Siak District can be explained more than 70 by the observed variables, whereas according to McFadden, it is only 22.5. However, in general the pseudo r-squared statistics that have been produced shows that most of variability in land use change happen in Siak District could be explained by the final model which was developed by using the observed variables in the research site. The two tests for final model which have been conducted above indicate that the final model of land use change in Siak District which has been developed by considering the observed variables in MLR model is a good model that can explain most of the variability of land use change in the research site. The observed variables that have been determined can be concluded as driving factors of land use transitions in Siak District.

4.4.3.4 Model Validation 2

nd Scenario The coefficient of the observed variables Appendix 6 and spatial data layersparameters 2005 x i have been simulated on MLR model in order to produce the conditional probability maps of land use transitions during 2005 – 2008. The computation of coefficient of the observed variables β i and spatial data layersparameters 2005 x i on MLR model equation produced 26 conditional 88 probability maps of outcome categories in accordance with number of land use transitions in Siak District. These conditional probability maps show the probability of each land use transition may occur in the research area, with probability value range from 0 to 1. Probability Map for FF PY01 Probability Map for FC PY02 Probability Map for FG PY03 Probability Map for FS PY04 Probability Map for FO PY05 Probability Map for CF PY06 Probability Map for CC PY07 Probability Map for CG PY08 Probability Map for CS PY09 Probability Map for CO PY10 Figure 36. Conditional Probability Maps of Land Use Transitions 2 nd Scenario