52 categories which transformed into Forest land about 13,463 ha only 5.7 of
Forest land in 2008.
Figure 19. Land Use Change Map 2005 – 2008 Snapshot
In aggregate, Grassland increased only 4,586 ha, but when observing the land use transitions which were experienced by Grassland, this land use category
had very dynamic land use transitions. During 2005 – 2008, large area of Grassland had been transformed into Cropland 87,779 ha or 47.5 of Grassland
in 2005, and in smaller area, it was transformed into Other lands, Forest land, and Settlements which in total for about 16,278 ha 8.8. At the same period,
Grassland area was expanded by occupying Cropland 55,905 ha or 29.5 of Cropland in 2008, Forest land 35,314 ha 18.7, and Other lands 17,168 ha
9. As in 2002 – 2005, Settlements and Other lands during 2005 – 2008 were
the land use categories which had land use transitions smaller than the other land uses discussed earlier. Settlements increased 5,902 ha 30.5 of Settlements in
2008 which mostly occupied Cropland 1,357 ha 7 and Grassland 3,574 ha 18.5. In the same time, only 615 ha or 4.4 of Settlements in 2005 transformed
into other land uses which mostly transformed into Cropland and Grassland with total area of 558 ha 3.9. Furthermore, Other lands have decreased during 2005
– 2008 for about 8,535 ha in total. Most of Other lands have been transformed into Cropland and Grassland with total area 41,003 ha or 88.9 of Other lands in
2005. Expansion of Other lands mostly occurred on Cropland and Forest land
53 which occupied 25,945 ha 69 of Other lands in 2008 which in total there were
33,961 ha 90 of new area of Other lands in 2008. Table 10. Transition Area Matrix 2005 – 2008 in hectares
Land Use 2008
2005 F C
G W
S O
Total 2005 Forest land F
221,345.06 52,081.12 35,314.17 0.00 468.94
11,384.46 320,593.74
Cropland C 8,737.48
209,296.67 55,905.92 0.00 1,357.06
14,560.94 289,858.07
Grassland G 4,725.09 87,779.19 80,615.36
0.00 3,574.55 7,978.75 184,672.94
Wetlands W
0.00 0.00
0.00 12,814.17
0.00 0.00 12,814.17
Settlements S
20.06 302.83 255.68 0.00 13,438.38 37.08
14,054.03
Other lands O 991.48 23,834.86 17,168.26
0.00 501.66 3,628.60 46,124.86
Total 2008 235,819.17 373,294.66 189,259.40 12,814.17 19,340.58 37,589.83 868,117.82
Land Use Change 2005 ‐ 2008
0.00 50.00
100.00 150.00
200.00 250.00
1 2
3 4
5 6
Th o
u sa
n d
s
2005 20
08
1. Forest land
2. Cropland
3. Grassland
4. Wetlands
5. Settlements
6. Other lands
Figure 20. The Graph of Land Use Transitions 2005 – 2008
4.3 Land Use Change Representation
Land use change is an important research area in global environmental change research that attracts broad attention, since it can produce significant
ecological impacts to the environment Chen et al. 2003; Fang et al. 2006. Understanding the process of land use changes may facilitate to understand the
scheme of land use changes which can be considered in managing the natural resources. The discussions about land use change studies in the previous chapters
show that during 2002 – 2008 land use transitions have occurred very dynamically in Siak District, and they have been driven by some significant variables that exist
in the research site. By considering the transition area from each land use category, the land use change studies in this research shows that in some area the
54 land uses in Siak District have been transformed into other land uses in quite large
area, but in other area the land uses are in stable condition not transformed into other land uses.
In order to observe the liability of land use to transform into other land uses, this research developed Transition Probability Matrix which might support
to understand the scheme of land use changes in Siak District. The transition probability matrix shows the probability of each land use to transform or not
transform into other land uses. The transition probability matrix is developed by dividing the land use transition area of each land use with the total area of initial
land use, so that the total of transition probability for each land use category would be equal to 1.00.
4.3.1 Land Use Transition Probability
Based on the transition probability matrices, the research found that transition probability for each land use transition during 2002 – 2005 and 2005 –
2008 has differences. However, only few land use transitions have a wide gap of transition probability gap 0.10 in between two time periods. Due to only two
time periods of land use transitions which have been developed, the research could not make any conclusion regarding the trend of future probabilities of land
use transitions in Siak District. The transition probability matrix shows that Forest land transitions have a
consistent transitions scheme during 2002 – 2008. Forest land tended to not transform into other land uses not changestable condition during two time
periods, even tough the probability slightly decreased from 0.70 to 0.69. The probability of Forest land to transform into Cropland slightly increased from 0.12
to 0.16, whereas the probability to transform into Grassland did not change significantly. The probability of Forest land to transform into Other lands slightly
decreased from 0.06 to 0.04, and only small probability of Forest land that it would be transformed into Settlements.
Cropland tended to be in stable condition during 2002 – 2005 and its probability increased significantly during 2005 – 2008 from 0.62 to 0.72. The
probability of Cropland to transform into Grassland slightly decreased from 0.24
