70 cultural variables, project participation and knowledge, and perceived changes in well-being. As we have seen
above, there are significant differences between the project villages with regard to some of the socio-cultural variables; hence, we will also examine effects of project village on perceived well-being by entering the villages
as dummy variables. Results of this analysis are in table 89.
Focusing on statistically significant correlations, people who think they
are better off today score higher on the project and MPA knowledge
indices 3.1 versus 2.8 and 4.7 versus 4.2 respectively, lower on
the modern house MSL component and higher on the appliances
component 0.046 versus 0.251 and 0.314 versus –0.097 respectively.
Those who think they are better-off today and will be better-off 5 years
from today also have more years of formal education 7.3 versus 6.5
years, are younger 38.8 versus 44.6 years, are more likely to
depend on farming than fishing for household income and tend to live
in Blongko rather than Talise. Seventy-three percent of the
Blongko respondents feel they are better-off today in contrast to 54 percent of respondents from the other villages combined. Less than half 46 percent the respondents from Talise feel they are better off today.
4.4.1 Within Community Analyses of Changes in Well Being
Table 89 indicates that Blongko and Talise differ from the other two project villages with respect to responses to the well-being questions. Intercommunity differences with respect to other project and socio-
cultural variables suggest that it may be useful to analyze relationships between Proyek Pesisir and perceptions of well-being within each project area.
Bentenan and Tumbak: While there are no statistically significant differences between 1997 and
2002 in perceived changes in well-being over the past five years in Bentenan and Tumbak, the control villages manifest a significant decrease in respondents reporting “worse-off” and an increase in “better-off” responses
tables 90 and 91. The control villages are about the same as Bentenan and Tumbak in terms of “better-off” responses in 2002, and they have fewer “worse-off” and more “same” responses then the project villages.
These differences are statistically significant table 92. With regard to changes between the baseline and post- evaluation in perceived well-being five years in the future, Bentenan and Tumbak had more “same” and fewer
“don’t know” responses table 93. The percent of “better-of” responses did not change. In contrast, the control sites had a significant increase in the percent of “better-off” and a significant decrease in the percent of “don’t
Table 89. Correlations between perceived changes in well-being in project villages 2002.
Coefficient sig. test
Better- off today
Better off in 5 years
Education rf-test
0.131 0.164
Age rf-test
-0.222 -0.187
Modern house rf-test
-0.120 -0.054
Appliances rf-test
0.177 0.065
House structure rf-test
0.018 -0.003
Furnishings rf-test
0.071 0.022
Household size rf-test
0.000 -0.008
Gender male φχ
2
-0.094 -0.015
Christian φχ
2
0.092 0.083
Fishing C
χ
2
-0.168 -0.202
Farming C
χ
2
0.186 0.177
Project knowledge rf-test
0.149 0.099
Project participation rf-test
0.075 0.055
Level participation rf-test
0.077 0.077
MPA knowledge rf-test
0.111 0.090
Bentenan φχ
2
0.077 0.094
Tumbak φχ
2
-0.099 -0.094
Blongko φχ
2
0.165 0.157
Talise φχ
2
-0.143 -0.157
N=320 p0.001 p0.01 p0.05
Table 90. Percent distribution of perceived changes in well being in Bentenan Tumbak
1997 and 2002.
1997 2002
Total Worse off
15 25
21 Same
20 18
18 Better off
64 58
60 Don’t know
2 1
Total 100
100 100
N 122
160 282
χ
2
=6.809 df=3 p=0.078 Cor.χ
2
=4.176 df=2 p=0.124
Table 91. Percent distribution of perceived changes in well being in control villages 1997
and 2002.
1997 2002
Total Worse off
42 13
29 Same
25 33
29 Better off
32 55
42 Total
100 100
100 N
102 80
182 χ
2
= 19.748 df=2, p0.001
71 know” responses table 94. These changes resulted in the controls becoming more like the project sites. In
fact, the differences between the project and control sites with respect to projected changes five years in the future are not statistically significant table 95.
If the project influences well-being in the project villages, we expect that those who participate in and have knowledge concerning project activities would perceive greater changes in well-being from the past as
well as into the future. To test this hypothesis we next examine relationships between the independent socio- cultural variables, project participation and knowledge, and perceived changes in well-being in the Bentenan
and Tumbak. The results of this analysis are in table 96.
The only project variable statistically significantly related to
perceived well-being is the project knowledge index. People who
think they are better off today score higher on the project knowledge
index 3.1 versus 2.7. They also have a higher level of education
7.8 versus 6.9 years, are younger 37.1 versus 44.0 years, and score
higher on the appliances MSL component 0.495 versus 0.026.
Those who tend to think they will be better off in five years tend to
come from Bentenan 78 percent from Bentenan versus 63 percent
from Tumbak and acquire some, but not the major proportion of
their household income from farming.
Table 92. Percent distribution of perceived changes in well being in project Bentenan and
Tumbak and control villages 2002.
Control Project
Total Worse off
13 25
21 Same
33 18
23 Better off
55 58
57 Total
100 100
100 N
80 160
240 χ
2
=9.392 df=2 p=0.009
Table 93. Percent distribution of perceived well-Being 5 years in the future in Bentenan
and Tumbak 1997 2002.
1997 2002
Total Same
2 9
6 Better off
70 70
70 Don’t know
29 21
24 Total
100 100
100 N
122 160
282 χ
2
= 8.739 df=2 p=0.013
Table 94. Percent distribution of perceived well-being 5 years in the future in control
villages 1997 2002.
1997 2002
Total Worse off
1 1
Same 7
3 5
Better off 18
74 42
Don’t know 75
24 52
Total 100
100 100
N 102
80 182
χ
2
=57.997 df=3 p0.001; Cor.χ
2
=40.123 df=2 p0.001
Table 96. Correlations between independent variables and perceived changes in well-being in project villages Bentenan
Tumbak 2002.
Coefficient sig. test
Better- off today
Better off in 5 years
Education rf-test
0.158 0.145
Age rf-test
-0.292 -0.080
Modern house rf-test
-0.050 0.013
Appliances rf-test
0.186 0.092
House structure rf-test
0.140 0.091
Furnishings rf-test
0.018 -0.025
Household size rf-test
0.035 -0.002
Gender male φχ
2
-0.133 0.030
Christian φχ
2
-0.065 0.006
Fishing C
χ
2
0.146 0.106
Farming C
χ
2
0.183 0.249
Project knowledge rf-test
0.162 0.076
Project participation rf-test
0.111 0.133
Level participation rf-test
0.044 0.101
MPA knowledge rf-test
0.014 0.085
Bentenan φχ
2
0.152 0.164
N=160 p0.001 p0.01 p0.05
Table 95. Percent distribution of perceptions of well-being 5 years in the future in project
and control sites 2002.
Control Project
Total Same
3 9
7 Better off
74 70
71 Don’t know
24 21
22 Total
100 100
100 N
80 160
240 χ
2
=3.904 df=2 p=0.142
72
Blongko: While there are no statistically significant differences between 1997 and 2002 in perceived
changes in well-being over the past five years in Blongko, the control villages manifest a significant decrease in respondents reporting “worse-off” and a significant increase in “better-off” responses tables 97 and 98. These
changes in the control villages result in a response pattern that is not statistically significantly different from Blongko in 2002 table 99. Both Blongko and the control villages show significant increases in “better-off”
and decreases in “don’t know” responses concerning perceived status five years in the future tables 100 and 101. The amount of change is greater in the control villages, resulting in a profile similar to that in the project
villages in 2002 table 102.
If the project influences well-being in the project villages, we expect that those who participate in and have knowledge concerning project activities would perceive greater changes in well-being from the past as
well as into the future. To test this hypothesis we next examine relationships between the independent socio- cultural variables, project participation and knowledge, and perceived changes in well-being in Blongko. The
results of this analysis are in table 103. None of the project variables are statistically significantly correlated with perceptions of well-being. Age is the only variable that is statistically significantly correlated with the
perceptions of well being measures. Younger as opposed to older respondents tend to say they will be better off in 5 years 40.2 versus 49.9 years respectively.
Talise: According to the analyses in tables 104 and 105, the small changes noted for Talise are not
statistically significant, while the control sites improved greatly, with most responses moving to the “better off” category. It is interesting to note that the control villages’ profile across the 4 response categories in 2002
Table 97. Percent distribution of perceived changes in well being in Blongko 1997 2002.
1997 2002
Total Worse off
13 11
12 Same
18 15
17 Better off
66 73
68 Don’t know
3 1
2 Total
100 100
100 N
180 80
260 χ
2
=1.353 df=3 p=0.717 Cor.χ
2
=0.775 df=2 p=0.679
Table 98. Percent distribution of perceived changes in well being in control villages 1997
and 2002.
1997 2002
Total Worse off
49 18
35 Same
34 18
27 Better off
16 65
38 Don’t know
1 1
Total 100
100 100
N 100
80 180
χ
2
= 46.185 df=3, p0.001; Cor.χ
2
=45.331 df=2 p0.001
Table 99. Percent distribution of perceived changes in well being in project Blongko and
control villages 2002.
Control Project
Total Worse off
18 11
14 Same
18 15
16 Better off
65 73
69 Don’t know
1 1
Total 100
100 100
N 80
80 160
χ
2
=2.568 df=3 p=0.463 Cor.χ
2
=1.562 df=2 p=0.458
Table 100. Percent distribution of perceived well-Being 5 years in the future in Blongko
1997 2002.
1997 2002
Total Same
3 5
4 Better off
59 83
67 Don’t know
37 13
30 Total
100 100
100 N
180 80
260 χ
2
= 16.255 df=2 p0.001
Table 101. Percent distribution of perceived well-being 5 years in the future in control
villages 1997 2002.
1997 2002
Total Same
4 9
6 Better off
23 69
43 Don’t know
73 23
51 Total
100 100
100 N
100 80
180 χ
2
=45.528 df=3 p0.001
Table 102. Percent distribution of perceptions of well-being 5 years in the future in Blongko
and control sites 2002.
Control Project
Total Same
9 5
7 Better off
69 83
76 Don’t know
23 13
18 Total
100 100
100 N
80 80
160 χ
2
=4.104 df=2 p=0.128
73 moved in a direction that makes it
quite similar to Talise’s—there is no statistically significant difference
between the two see table 106. Finally, the potential effect of
Airbanua’s status as an expansion site is examined. As can be seen in
table 107, there is no statistically significant difference between
Airbanua and Kahuku. In fact, the only large difference in table 107,
the percent who feel they are better off today, is in the opposite
direction than that predicted by Airbanua’s status as an expansion
site and statistically significant
χ
2
=4.68, df=1, p0.05.
Turning to changes in perceptions of future status, respondents were asked if they felt they would be worse off the same or better off five years in the future. Results of the analyses of these data are in tables 108
and 109. While there were positive changes in perceived well being 5 years in the future in both Talise and the control villages,
Table 104. Percent distribution of perceived changes in well being in Talise 1997 and 2002.
1997 2002
Total Worse off
18 24
20 Same
26 28
26 Better off
54 46
52 Don’t know
2 3
2 Total
100 100
100 N
224 80
304 χ
2
=1.57 df=3 p=0.67; Cor.χ
2
=1.557, df=2, p=0.459
Table 105. Percent distribution of perceived changes in well being in control villages 1997
and 2002.
1997 2002
Total Worse off
43 20
33 Same
35 20
29 Better off
20 60
37 Don’t know
3 1
Total 100
100 100
N 120
90 χ
2
=36.38 df=3, p0.001; Cor.χ
2
=33.98, df=2, p0.001
Table 106. Percent distribution of perceived changes in well being in Talise and control
villages 2002.
Control Talise
Total Worse off
20 24
22 Same
20 28
24 Better off
60 46
54 Don’t know
3 1
Total 100
100 100
N 90
80 χ
2
=5.03 df=3 p=0.169; Cor.χ
2
=2.76, df=2, p=0.252
Table 107. Percent distribution of perceived changes in well being in Kahuku Airbanua
2002.
Kahuku Airbanua
Total Worse off
12 30
20 Same
18 23
20 Better off
70 48
60 Total
100 100
100 N
50 40
90 χ
2
=5.700 df=2 p=0.058
Table 108. Percent distribution of perceived well-being 5 years in the future in Talise 1997
2002.
1997 2002
Total Worse off
4 3
Same 8
21 12
Better off 54
58 55
Don’t know 34
21 31
Total 100
100 100
N 224
80 304
χ
2
=15.38 df=3 p=0.002;Cor.χ
2
=11.84, df=2, p=0.003
Table 109. Percent distribution of perceived well-Being 5 years in the future in control
villages 1997 2002.
1997 2002
Total Worse off
1 Same
8 10
9 Better off
43 77
58 Don’t know
48 13
33 Total
100 100
100 N
120 90
χ
2
=29.94 df=3 p0.001; Cor.χ
2
=29.15, df=2, p0.001
Table 103. Correlations between independent variables and perceived changes in well-being in Blongko 2002.
Coefficient sig. test
Better- off today
Better off in 5 years
Education rf-test
-0.020 0.072
Age rf-test
-0.073 -0.258
Modern house rf-test
-0.170 -0.205
Appliances rf-test
0.182 -0.051
House structure rf-test
-0.050 0.104
Furnishings rf-test
0.072 -0.066
Household size rf-test
-0.118 0.008
Gender male φχ
2
0.025 -0.089
Christian φχ
2
0.075 -0.044
Fishing C
χ
2
0.257 0.278
Farming C
χ
2
0.144 0.066
Project knowledge rf-test
0.087 -0.051
Project participation rf-test
0.145 -0.007
Level participation rf-test
0.052 -0.031
MPA knowledge rf-test
0.148 -0.101
N=160 p0.001 p0.01 p0.05
74 it is clear that the big changes were a decrease in the
“don’t know” and an increase in the “same” categories in Talise in contrast to a big decrease in the
“don’t know” and an increase in the “better-off” categories in the control villages. Overall the profiles
for Talise and the control villages are similar, but there are more responses concentrated in the “better
off” category in the latter Table 110.
If the project influences well-being in the project villages, we expect that those who participate
in and have knowledge concerning project activities would perceive greater changes in well-being from the past as well as into the future. To test this hypothesis we next examine relationships between the independent socio-
cultural variables, project participation and knowledge, and perceived changes in well-being in Talise. Because of socio-cultural difference between Kinabohutan and the rest of Talise, Kinabohutan is entered as a dummy
variable. The results of these analyses can be found in table 111.
Focusing only on statistically significant correlations,
the level of project participation index is positively correlated with both
well-being measures. Those who report that they are better-off today
and will be better-off 5 years in the future score higher on this index than
those who do not 0.766 versus 0.506 and 0.719 versus 0.500 respectively.
Younger in contrast to older respondents also tend to say that they
are better-off today and will be better- off 5 years in the future 39.2 versus
46.1 and 39.4 versus 47.7 years respectively. Respondents from
households that have a relatively high dependence on agriculture also have a
tendency to say that they are better- off today than in the past. Unexpectedly, people scoring low on the MSL permanent structure component tend
to be more optimistic about the future than those scoring high 0.235 versus 0.549. Finally, fewer respondents living in Kinabohutan report they are better-off today than those from the other sub-villages of Talise 35 versus
58 percent, respectively.
4.5 Perceptions of Post-Management Plan Changes
